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abh3vt re:CBPO
I have no idea what the explanation for these trades is, but maybe the discount relates to the legal battle over whether the company actually owns the operating subsidiary.
DDRX hits 9.25
Looks like selling in the mid $4 range was a bit premature. Ouch.
KIK re: IDSA
IDSA was trading in the teens when they announced that quarter last year, so it is all relative. It seems pretty foolish to me to use a comparative for earnings but not price.
re: idsa
Call it empirical evidence, but over the years that I've been investing I've noticed a tendency for stocks to react to positive earnings reports even if the news was already available.
Kind of like SCOM will react to positive earnings when the large government contract revenues are recognized even though the news is already known to the market.
I could always be wrong though.
IDSA
Pre-announced eps of .17 to .19 for the 1st quarter. Might be a good play coming into their earnings report which will likely be announced next week.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Industrial-Services-of-bw-15041131.html?.v=1
researcher59
This is speculation on my part, but I wonder if the large players on the short side have gone into hibernation due to the SEC focus on modifying short selling rules.
I have a feeling they may be quite until the SEC has ruled on new short selling curbs.
gilead23 re: SCOM
Fair enough. I understand the excitement, but I just want to provide a bit of balance.
Absent signing some major new contracts it is very difficult to predict SCOM's earnings once the front end revenues are recognized on this government contract. Usually the market will take that into account.
On the other hand, this is a low float small cap, so strange things can happen.
Absent new developments, I will be out long before it hits double digits.
re: SCOM
I do own a position in SCOM, but projecting a 20 PE based off of a spike in earnings of a front loaded five year contract seems a bit overstated. SCOM has been in existence for some time and the growth rate in revenues and earnings prior to this government contract doesn't necessarily support such rosy projections.
researcher
Did you see the form 4 for DIT? President sold 5k at 35.
sskillz1
The short end of the treasury curve is showing no signs of a willingness to take on more risk. The 3 month t-bill rates have fallen from .18 at the beginning of April to .08 as of today. Not exactly an endorsement of this rally.
re:DDRX
Watching this run after I sold has been painful, but I'm sticking with my plan of not being greedy in this market.
One thing to be aware of with DDRX, their will be a significant fully diluted share increase if the stock price remains at these levels. Assuming all warrants and options get exercised and fully taxed earnings then earnings would be more in line with .10 per share.
There is also a significant master lease liability exposure. It is unclear if this exposure was sold off with the sale of the franchise operations. If not this could be a looming risk given the current economic environment.
If this keeps running, I may look for an opportunity to play the short side.
re: IECE
Pretty impressive quarter in this environment. In the managment comments they stated that,
The Company has experienced solid new orders and despite the recessionary outlook for the economy, we expect continued growth in both revenue and profitability throughout fiscal 2009. Sales from Val-U-Tech were accretive for the quarter and IEC’s core business grew by more than 12% over the same quarter of the prior year.
researcher59 re:SPAN
Span is my second largest holding, and I also added some shares in the 9's this morning. Not only is this a low PE stock, but it has a nice dividend yield as well.
MSGI re: DDRX
It has been an amazing trade. I was able to get quite a few shares between 2.6 and 2.75 in the pre-market. Given the incredible run I decided to take profits. I was able to lock in a profit in excess of 65%.
MSGI re: DDRX
That was quite a quarter. The K-cup business looks like it is growing rapidly. I wonder if people are trading down from their Starbucks to a cheaper alternative such as this.
Looking at the history of their revenues for the past three years, it looks like the upcoming June quarter is typically one of their strongest quarters.
I picked up some shares in the pre-market, but I'm well short of a 1000%+ gain.
cliffvb re:LTUS
That seems almost too good to be true.
gilead23 re: LAKE
I have a position in LAKE as well. If they report similar to last year, 4th quarter earnings should be out early next week. I'm hoping for a move to the 8-9 level on earnings.
Good post Bobwins. I agree that we have a long ways to go before this bear market ends.
re: REPR
On the bright side for REPR, if it falls to .06 at least the fully diluted share count will no longer be in error.
Warning re: CBPO
As much as I like the financials on this stock, a serious red flag has surfaced in the 10k. The Wuhan Intermediate Court has issued a preliminary order attaching 66% of the equity of the Company's operating subsidiary Shandong Taibang.
I can't understate the seriousness of this case. The 66% interest was previously ruled to have been improperly transferred, but the judgment was suspended due to improper jurisdiction. If this court rules similarly then China Biologic will have to surrender 66% of it's operating subsidiary to Mr. Du.
The company should have issued an 8k in December disclosing this case. When 66% of your operations have been attached by the courts pending the outcome of a case, I think that qualifies as a material event.
To add to the soap opera, Mr. Du has also alleged that the CEO of the operating subsidiary Shandong Taibang was formerly known as Lin Zepin an individual that was court martialed for smuggling in Fujian in 1999. The CEO denies this, but who knows.
From the 10K
There is a dispute between the former shareholders of Shandong Taibang that calls into question our ownership of 66%, or a majority, of our primary operating subsidiary, which if not resolved in our favor will adversely affect our business.
Mr. Zu Ying Du was one of the original equity holders in our operating subsidiary, Shandong Taibang. Pursuant to a joint venture agreement, among the original equity holders, Mr. Du was obligated to make a capital contribution of RMB20 million (or approximately $2.6 million) for a 25% interest in Shandong Taibang. Mr. Du made this contribution using funds borrowed from the Beijing Chen Da Technology Investment Company, or Beijing Chen Da. Mr. Du failed to repay Beijing Chen Da for his loan of the capital contribution amount. Mr. Du disputes that the money was due and owing. A Beijing court found that Beijing Chen Da had given money to Mr. Du but found that the loan agreement failed to comply with Chinese law. A notice was issued on July 5, 2004 by the Shenzhen Public Security Bureau Economic Crime Investigation Unit requesting a stay of the Beijing action pending their investigation into money laundering relating to the 20 million RMB loan to Zu Ying Du.
Subsequently, Beijing Chen Da entered into an equity transfer agreement with Mr. Du, pursuant to which Mr. Du’s 25% equity interest in Shandong Taibang was transferred to Beijing Chen Da as repayment of the RMB20 million debt. This agreement was signed by Mr. Du’s brother who held a power of attorney from Mr. Du. Mr. Du disputes the legitimacy of this transfer and has argued that his brother, Du Hai Shan, exceeded the scope of the power of attorney. Mr. Du sued his brother in the court of Jianli County, Hubei province, relating to the propriety of the brother’s actions under the power of attorney. Initially the county court found in its judgment that the act had exceeded the scope of the power of attorney. Subsequently the Intermediate Court of Jingzhou City, Hubei province, ruled on December 10, 2008 to suspend the judgment based on the grounds that the original court lacked jurisdiction to hear the case. The case is stated to be reviewed again by the Hubei Jingzhou Intermediate Court.
Missile Engineering, another original equity holder wholly controlled by Mr. Du, was obligated to contribute RMB32.8 million (or $4.2 million) for a 41% interest in Shandong Taibang by means of cash, equipment and patent technology. It was obligated to obtain new drug certificate and production license of its patent technology from the government within a stipulated period in order to be recognized as a valid capital contribution, or in the alternative, make a cash payment. The patent technology was valued as RMB26.4 million (or approximately $3.4 million). However, Missile Engineering failed to obtain the new drug certificate and production license within the stipulated period. Mr. Du also disputes whether the period for obtaining the certificate and license had expired. Pursuant to a stockholders resolution on September 26, 2004, Missile Engineering agreed to sell its 41% interest in Shandong Taibang to Up-Wing and Up-Wing agreed to take up the obligation of Missile Engineering to pay the RMB26.4 million in cash. Missile Engineering disputes this transaction and sued the brother of Mr. Du in the court of Jianli County, Hubei province, relating to the propriety of the brother’s actions under the power of attorney. Initially the county court found in its judgment that the act had exceeded the scope of the power of attorney. Subsequently the Intermediate Court of Jingzhou City, Hubei province, ruled on December 10, 2008 to suspend the judgment based on the grounds that the original court lacked jurisdiction to hear the case. The case is stated to be reviewed again by the Hubei Jingzhou Intermediate Court.
In June 10, 2005, Beijing Chen Da also sold its equity interest in Shandong Taibang to Up-Wing Investments Limited, or Up-Wing, pursuant to a share transfer agreement, which became effective on September 2, 2005, upon approval by the Shandong Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, or the Shandong COFTEC. In March 2006, Up-Wing sold its equity interests in Shandong Taibang to Logic Express, our subsidiary.
In 2006, Missile Engineering applied for arbitration before the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission, or CIETAC, to challenge the effectiveness of the transfer to Up-Wing Investments Limited, of the equity interests in Shandong Taibang formerly owned by Missile Engineering. The equity transfer had been approved by the Shandong Provincial Department of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, or the Shandong COFTEC. Missile Engineering later voluntarily withdrew this application and instead applied for administrative reconsideration of the equity transfer, but this application was rejected by the Ministry of Commerce in 2007. Missile Engineering applied with the District Court of Lixia District, Jinan City, Shandong province requesting revocation of Shandong COFTEC’s approval of the equity transfer to Up-wing by Missile Engineering. Missile Engineering later voluntarily withdrew the action. In April 2007, Logic Express initiated an arbitration proceeding before the Shandong Tai’an Arbitration Committee, to establish that Logic Express is the lawful shareholder of Shandong Taibang. The parties to that proceeding were Logic Express Ltd. and Shandong Taibang Biological Products Co., Ltd. The Arbitration Committee’s decision on September 6, 2007 confirmed that Logic Express had legitimate ownership as a result of the transfer of Shandong Taibang. Up-Wing started an action in the Intermediate Court of Tai’an City, Shandong province requesting the court to establish that Up-Wing is the lawful shareholder of Shandong Taibang. The Intermediate Court of Tai’an City, Shandong province on December 20, 2007 rejected the application on the basis that the same matter had been tried by the arbitration panel.
Up-Wing filed a defamation case in the District Court of Hi-technology and Industry Development District, Tai’an City, Shandong province claiming defamation against Mr. Du and the 21st Century Economic Report Newspaper. Judgment in favor of Up-Wing was rendered on July 22, 2008 ordering the newspaper and Mr. Du to apologize on the newspaper to Up-Wing.
Mr. Du and Missile Engineering have filed two actions in the Intermediate Court of Wuhan City, Hubei province, against the following defendants, Du Hai Shan, his brother, Beijing Chen Da and Logic Express. Mr. Du and Missile Engineering have requested that the Wuhan Intermediate Court to restore the equity interests originally held by the plaintiffs, 25% equity interest held by Mr. Du and 41% equity interest held by Missile Engineering. The Wuhan Intermediate Court has issued a preliminary order attaching 66% of the equity of Shandong Taibang pending the outcome of the case.
Dr. Du has alleged that Mr. Lam, the current CEO of our subsidiary Taibang, was formerly known as Lin Zepin and that the individual, Lin Zepin, was court martialed for smuggling in Fujian in 1999. Dr. Du alleges that Lin Zepin was released from prison in 2003. Mr. Lam denies these statements and has provided an affidavit stating that he was never know as Lin Zepin and has not been convicted of any crime. If it were determined that Mr. Lam, the CEO of Taibang, was formerly known as Lin Zepin and was in fact convicted of a crime, our business and results of operations could be adversely affected.
For failure to resolve these disputes in our favor may adversely affect our business and operations.
re:smid
This is a GAAP accounting issue. The dispute must have occurred prior to 12/31/08.
Although the settlement occurred in 2009, it is appropriate to the match the expense to the period in which the event occurred. Since the settlement occurred prior to the company filing its 10k, this allowed them to quantify the amount of loss and made it possible for it to be recorded in 2008's financial statements.
researcher59 I've covered as well. I too hope to see it rebound back to the 9+ level.
nelson re: ctib
I agree with your assessment. In 2006 and 2007 the first quarter was the weakest quarter of the year. In 2008 the first quarter was the second weakest.
The fourth quarter in 2006 and 2007 was the strongest quarter whereas in 2008 it was the weakest.
manny t re: FEED
It seems odd to me that they would suspend the stock buy back when the stock is trading at such a low price relative to earnings.
sskillz1 and researcher
Thanks for the replies. I wouldn't mind a run to 10. That would allow for a more meaningful short position.
researcher
What is your opinion on LZR? I initiated a small short position today at 8.59.
researcher59
The earnings were out at the close:
SAINT PAUL, Minn., Feb 25, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Image Sensing Systems, Inc. (ISNS), announced today our seventh consecutive year of record financial results including the best quarterly results ever in the Company's history.
(Logo: )
Net income for fiscal year 2008 was $5.0 million ($1.24 per diluted share) compared to $872,000 ($0.22 per diluted share) for fiscal 2007. Net income for our fourth quarter, which ended December 31, 2008, was $1.5 million ($0.39 per diluted share) compared to a loss of $1.7 million ($0.44 per diluted share) for the same period in 2007. We recognized an in-process research and development charge of $4.5 million ($3.0 million net of tax) in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Revenue for fiscal year 2008 was $26.5 million compared to $15.1 million for fiscal 2007, while revenue for fourth quarter of 2008 was $7.8 million compared to $5.2 million for the same period a year ago. Revenue from royalties increased 24% to $13.3 million in fiscal year 2008 from $10.8 million in 2007 and 7% to $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 from $3.1 million in the same period of 2007, reflecting the continued success of our Autoscope(R) North American distribution partner, Econolite Control Products, Inc. (ECPI). North American sales, which are sales of RTMS(R) in North America, were $5.7 million for fiscal year 2008 and $1.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. International sales, which include both Autoscope and RTMS sales outside of North America, were $7.5 million for fiscal year 2008, an 83% increase over $4.1 million in the same period of 2007 and were $3.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, a 76% increase over $1.8 million in the same period in 2007. Sales of RTMS world-wide for the fourth quarter were $2.4 million. We acquired the RTMS family of products in December 2007.
On a non-GAAP basis, excluding intangible asset amortization, in process research and development and withdrawn offering expenses, each net of tax, net income was $5.6 million ($1.40 per diluted share) and operating income was $8.1 million for fiscal year 2008 as compared to net income of $3.9 million ($1.00 per diluted share) and operating income of $4.7 million for fiscal year 2007. On a non-GAAP basis for the 2008 fourth quarter, net income was $1.7 million ($0.42 per diluted share) and operating income was $2.4 million as compared to 2007 net income of $1.3 million ($0.34 per diluted share) and operating income of $1.6 million.
Based on the 2008 results for RTMS, the sellers of the RTMS business, also known as the EIS assets, are entitled to receive a $1.2 million earnout payment. This liability has been recorded on our balance sheet as of December 31, 2008 with an offsetting entry to increase goodwill.
Ken Aubrey, CEO, said, "Our fourth quarter and year were strong in the face of deteriorating economic conditions. All of our regions finished above internal targets although our North American RTMS business underperformed. We believe the domestic RTMS results are showing signs of funding problems at the state government level as a number of projects are being deferred. This trend is likely to manifest itself in our domestic Autoscope business and the royalties earned to date and projections for our first fiscal quarter of 2009 are below 2008 levels. Some royalties anticipated to be recognized early in 2009 were instead earned in 2008 which in turn may dampen 2009 revenue. Discussions with our North American channel partners indicate the current environment is tougher than 2008. We have high hopes for the infrastructure elements of the Federal stimulus package although we would not expect to see any benefit from it in the first half of the year. Internationally, the outlook currently appears less difficult."
Mr. Aubrey added, "We anticipate expense levels for 2009 will remain at fourth quarter 2008 levels as we focus on continued product initiatives, including video/radar hybrid solutions, tailored international offerings and market expansion activities in Eastern Europe and Asia. In addition, we are placing emphasis on activities to reduce our manufacturing costs from which we expect to see a benefit towards the end of the year."
Auction Rate Security Update
As was announced in January 2009, we have recovered our entire principal invested in auction rate securities (ARS). Because of the mechanics of the settlement, we have valued the ARS and related settlement rights at December 31, 2008 at a combined value equal to par and have classified it as a current asset. The previously recognized valuation impairment and its related components were reversed in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Non-GAAP Information
We provide certain non-GAAP financial information as supplemental information to GAAP amounts. This non-GAAP information excludes the impact, net of tax, of amortizing the intangible assets from the EIS asset purchase and excludes the costs incurred in conjunction with our withdrawn follow-on offering that were expensed in the quarter ended September 30, 2008. Additionally, we have excluded the impact of EIS accounting, most notably the in-process research and development expense, in our 2007 non-GAAP presentation. Management believes that this presentation facilitates the comparison of our current operating results to historical operating results. Management uses this non-GAAP information to evaluate short-term and long-term operating trends in our core operations. Non-GAAP information is not prepared in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered a substitute for or an alternative to GAAP financial measures and may not be computed the same as similarly titled measures used by other companies.
About Image Sensing
Image Sensing Systems, Inc. is a technology company focused in infrastructure productivity improvement through the development of software-based detection solutions for the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) sector and adjacent overlapping markets. ISS' industry leading computer-enabled detection (CED) products, including the Autoscope(R) machine-vision family and the RTMS(R) radar family, combine embedded software signal processing with sophisticated sensing technologies for use in transportation, environmental and safety/surveillance management. CED is a group of technologies in which software, rather than humans, examines the outputs of complex sensors to determine what is happening in the field of view in real-time. With more than 90,000 instances sold in over 60 countries worldwide, our depth of experience coupled with breadth of product portfolio uniquely positions us to provide powerful hybrid technology solutions and to exploit the convergence of the traffic, security and environmental management markets. We are headquartered in St. Paul, Minnesota. Visit us on the web at imagesensing.com.
Safe Harbor Statement: Statements made in this release concerning the Company's or management's intentions, expectations, or predictions about future results or events are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements reflect management's current expectations or beliefs, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to vary from stated expectations, which variations could be material and adverse. Factors that could produce such a variation include, but are not limited to, the following: the inherent unreliability of earnings, revenue and cash flow predictions due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company's control; developments in the demand for the Company's products and services; relationships with the Company's major customers and suppliers; unanticipated delays, costs and expenses inherent in the development and marketing of new products and services; the impact of governmental laws and regulations; and competitive factors. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the time made, and we assume no obligation to publicly update any such statements. Additional information concerning these and other factors that could cause actual results and events to differ materially from the Company's current expectations are contained in the Company's reports and other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007 and Form 10-Q filed periodically in 2008.
len:
What constitutes confirmation?
Len
Did the Dow also take out the 97 closing low?
hweb2 re: SILC
I still own and have been slowly accumulating. I was surprised by the strength on the bottom line.
sskillz1 re: repr.ob
I wouldn't trust their eps calculation. They disclose 3.76m options with a strike price of .06 outstanding as of 11/30/08, yet they fail to include those options in a fully diluted share count.
The option footnote also appears to be in error since these options should have been outstanding as of 2/29/08.
Errors in the financial filings seem to be a common theme with repr.
OT Fed announcement
It appears the market likes the news, but am I the only one that wonders how bad things must be for an unprecedented move like this?
lentinman
I can't help but feel taxpayers are caught in a government ponzi scheme. I'm even more surprised that this market seems to be digesting this news so well.
REPR- auditors resigned.
Based on the letter it appears there was a disagreement over the 2008 audit fee that was never resolved.
I have no position, but thought some might want to know.
lentinman
What is your opinion on this retest? Do you think it will hold, and if so would it be a good trade?
DIT
4th quarter diluted eps of $2.11 from continuing operations. FY diluted eps of $6.57 from continuing operations.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081107/20081107005136.html?.v=1
MikeS97707
Let me rephrase that. I've seen plenty of scammy over the counter stocks.
I'm not saying that alif is a scam, but over looking an increase of 10.5 million dollars in prepaid expense versus 16m in ytd revenues may be a dangerous proposition.
MikeS97707
You may be right, but it's not an issue that I would ignore. It is far too large of a balance and it is growing almost as fast as revenues.
I've witnessed plenty of scammy china stocks run to incredible valuations only to come crashing back to earth after the fact. Many of those were reflecting incredible growth numbers as well.
MikeS97707
Do you have any idea what they are using for an amortization method? This is a substantial asset that could feasibly lead to a significant misstatement/manipulation of earnings per share.
hweb2 re:alif
I don't own alif, but I noticed that they have a asset called license rights that has grown from 591k at the beginning of the year to 11.1M as of 9/30. Do you know what this asset represents?
I'm trying to figure out if there is a possibility they are overstating earnings by capitalize something that should be expensed.
Receivable growth and cash flow also appear troubling.