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I know you want a 100% pump only atmosphere here, but there may be other people who actually prefer more realistic views on things.
Scare tactics? Inst ownership has gone down at least the last several quarters in a row. These are facts. I did not say anything about this quarter (and I never would, the information is not even half complete). But compare where Inst ownership was just a couple of year ago and it is WAY lower now. WAY lower.
I've seen it. I've heard the arguments. Blah blah blah. Institutions, who can also read science reports and analyst reports, won't touch the stock. AMRN management won't touch it with their own money. The market cap is well below $300m. This all speaks volumes. But hey, if you believe in it, go for it. If you believe in it, more power to ya. I just believe the truth is that it is very very risky and the outcome completely uncertain. Of course it won't be stopped at interim, but will it be successful in the end? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But when the "perhaps not" means the stock goes to 20 cents, it should get your attention.
You still haven't explained why several institutions with long, close relationships with AMRN exited the stock and institutional ownership continues to go down every quarter. I do believe that removing the huge financial overhang and diluting already might, at this point, be beneficial. No one is gonna touch a stock that is on the brink of being out of money when everyone and their dog knows they need to raise cash soon. This should have been taken care of EONS ago so that focus could have shifted to REDUCE-IT, but our crackerjack management team said no.
So, please reconcile this widespread, easy to find scientific knowledge, with lack of institutional buying (large shareholders have exited, and recently), continued dog s*** pile stock price, lack of insider buying, etc?
My opinion is that no one knows the answer and the trial is extremely extremely risky. The stock price confirms this. The FDA denying Anchor confirms this. Everything confirms this, EXCEPT for retail LONG shareholders posting on an anonymous message board. And I don't go by what anonymous long retail shareholders say on a message board when everything else points otherwise. If the science you all talk about was so clear cut, this would not be at $1.54 and falling. Sorry, just the truth. But hey, you can go by JL and I wish you the best of luck! Trust the staunch defender and believer in GIA....that is definitely a solid strategy.
This is so awesome! Now AMRN can skyrocket to $1.71 a share...maybe even $1.76 a share if we are lucky! Yay! Victory!
No one "knows" anything. There is no guaranteed RRR. A complex trial with so many moving parts and assumptions is in no way predictable in any fashion. I love it when people throw out "JT knows this" or "JT knows that". No, he doesn't.
If it was soooo easy to predict the result, and that prediction was huge RRR, then this would NOT be at $1.56 a share. It wouldn't even be close to $1.56 a share. There is reality, and there is this message board. And they have a huge disconnect.
Again, this was most definitely already written in the protocol before the trial was even started. They don't just make this stuff up on the fly. They didn't decide "oh its gonna be stopped so lets get everyone's blood work". It was already written that this would occur when the trial was designed. It means nothing regarding the change of the trial being stopped.
Considering that the GIA announcement was pushbacked an extra week, insinuating that a deal was on the verge, I am guessing we were VERY close. IMO, greed ruined things. Not NCE. I think JZ played hardball to try to squeak out several extra dollars, and no one bit. The guy is a brash egomaniac. I think $18-$22 (maybe even more) was in the bag, but JZ was pushing for closer $30. He also assumed the Anchor Adcom was a slam dunk, which contributed to his overconfidence and hubris that made him turn down the AZNs and the Tevas. He isn't unlike many on this message board. They think they are worth the moon and the stars. Talk of "$40 would be acceptable to me", and even people throwing out $100 a share. JZ rubbed off on them.
Review articles from 2012 about the massive missed opportunity that AMRN squandered away:
http://www.streetinsider.com/FDA/Amarin+%28AMRN%29+Investors+Look+Beyond+NCE+Status+and+to+a+Buyout/7676170.html
There were from just weeks before the GIA announcement where the stock immediately crashed 20% and has been toast ever since:
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/financials/astrazeneca-angling-for-a-blockbuster-amarin-buyout
http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Amarin+%28AMRN%29+Higher+as+Teva+%28TEVA%29+Said+to+be+Waiting+in+the+Wings+for+a+Takeover/7881513.html
Not only did he say he had more interested buyers than employees, but he also said the next 60-90 days was going to be exciting. The stock traded at an artificially high level directly due to his rhetoric. He then sold millions of dollars worth of stock at these high levels. JZ then delayed the GIA announcement, giving more credence to the idea that a deal was in the works. Not to mention several articles stating that AZN was heavily interested. He then pulled the rug out from everyone, announced GIA, and the stock has been toast ever since. JZ also continued to tell investors that NCE was "much ado about nothing" while many articles were written (and posters believe) that NCE was the holdup of a buyout.
JZ took the proceeds from his stock sales and bought a huge mansion estate in Massachusetts. A poster posted the property record and it showed this purchase late in 2012 or early in 2013, I can't remember exactly.
So to review....he literally inflated the stock with his rhetoric, sold millions worth of stock, then pulled the rug out and the stock has been destroyed ever since.
He is still a board member, collecting more free shares, to boot.
Well, the $20m paid to named executive officers in the proxy statement is about 12-13 cents of shareholder value. Sure, it doesn't all vest right now, but if it were to vest immediately (as in a buyout), that would be 12-13 cents gone from your pocketbook. This 12-13 cents will be taken from you over time as things vest.
Also results in cash burning faster and more cash needed via dilution. So basically he is paid via dilution since that is the only way they make money. They have to dilute constantly to stay in business. Dilution lowers the value of your shares. And limits upside potential.
But hey, you are ok with it.
I believe that alone would affect the stock price by 1 or 2 cents. So everyone, take the number of shares you own, times 1 cent. That is roughly the amount of money that YOU literally paid to JT this year for his efforts. Calculate another cent for the compensation paid to the other named executive offers for their good hard productive work during 2015. You can literally see how much money was taken out of your pocket.
This also exacerbates the cash burn and results in more dilution effects over time. The more they make, the more they need to raise. Share counts increases more than it should.
This is also a cumulative effect. Every year shares from the past get vested. So if you add all of that in, I am guessing 3 cents is a decent estimate of how much each shareholder paid to compensation these brilliant minds who accomplished so much during 2015.
So all, once again: take your shares x .03. That is the amount of money out of your pocket. And this is conservative. Its probably closer to 4 or 5 cents.
It is complicated to calculate exactly, but rest assured, it is not an insignificant amount. Look at the last three years of executive compensation and do some rough math and you will be appalled at how much higher this stock could be.
Again, the money literally comes out of your pocket. Literally. Not figuratively. Literally. So defend away. If it was $50m would you care?
Do you need examples of CEO leaders who have made sacrifices when their companies faced difficulties? Cause it has happened a lot. Ya know, the rare CEO with some morals and not totally bent on greed and sucking every last cent they can from shareholders. They actually do exist. So thanks for reminding us that JT is NOT one of those. Dude has not only not sacrificed one IOTA during all of this, he and the board have gone out of their way to explode the compensation to astronomical levels. A sub-300m company where its top executives took home $20m in one year. Nice job guys! You've done what you set out do...got rich for accomplishing nothing!
But yeah, JT is a greedy immoral POS that only cares about maximizing his wealth. And we live in a country where that is perfectly fine, acceptable, even encouraged. Thanks for reminding us of the character of the person who is running things! They are on the verge of running out of money and he is making more than he ever has....more power to ya JT! And the BOD, well, you should be behind bars.
Keep defending those who pick your pocket Raf.
It is interesting that you defend this, because JT's compensation is LITERALLY coming out of YOUR pocket. There is no separation between the amount of money JT makes and the value of the stock price. They are intermingled, and the more HE makes, the less the stock is worth. So yeah, defend it. Hell, why don't we just pay him $50m a year? What's the difference, right? Why stop there? Why not $60m?
Furthermore, the Board is the one who sets this. Do you think this obscene amount of compensation comes out of thin air? So yeah, it is a failure across the board. I am sure JZ is really gonna stop this...that POS already has done enough harm and is still floating around in the Board, still influencing decision making. But hey, JZ has his mansion estate he bought off the backs of lies and AMRN shareholders. But who cares, right? He's just human, so suck it up and accept it! It'll be funny if one day this goes to $0 and you lose it all while JT walks away with tens of millions of dollars. I will then come back and ask your opinion of things.
There is A LOT of money to be made running micro cap biotechs. And you don't even have to win in the end. Just produce "potential" and you will have generation altering wealth on the backs of finance deals and shareholders.
Btw, you still refuse to pay up on a bet you lost a month ago.
Absurd, ridiculous analogy.
And anyone who can do basic math knew many moons ago this was inevitable. But AMRN management decided they didn't want to address it. They should have addressed this at $2.50 a share and BEFORE it became known to all. Since they have waited, now we are to the point where articles are being written about this need, and it is much more of an "aware" issue. Since now its in everyone's face that they need money, the stock will go nowhere. Who the hell is gonna buy this stock in the face of certain massive dilution? Stupid AMRN management doesn't realize you need to take care of these situations before it becomes a crisis. And the crisis increases with each passing day.
This issue has been inevitable for months, but I was branded a basher and bringing up the cash need was called a "scare tactic" and other BS. I never could for the life of me understand why recognizing the need for further financing was a controversial issue. It was just basic math. Nothing more, nothing less. And the awareness of the cash need and immediacy of the cash need are only going to increase over time. Further downside pressure on the stock, which means they raise cash at horrible terms.
But hey, JT and JK and the boyz deserve their millions!
Volcano still intact?
When is JT and the rest of the management going to make a personal sacrifice?
Has JT sacrificed ANYTHING since Adcom? Cash is dwindling low AGAIN, which means AGAIN we will have to sit through a massive dilution at horrible terms. Meanwhile JT and the rest of the management team has been making out like BANDITS. Not one bit of a pay cut or personal sacrifice in anyway. Their compensation just continues to skyrocket. So while shareholders got harpooned and have continued to suffer, they sacrifice nothing.
Given that cash is again dangerously low, why can't we start by saving some money from the bloated management salaries and stock awards? Grave circumstances require sacrifice from EVERYONE. Management should not be immune to having to pull back on their compensation. Instead they use faux court wins to literally steal money from shareholders. I guess you gotta strike while the irons hot, huh?
$90m at 3/31? Talk about being WAY off. Now you get to see full well the effect of "they don't want to do anything about it". Would have been nice if they would have taken advantage of $2.50, no? Now look at this brutal situation where cash is NEEDED and the terms will be awful
Welcome to 6 months ago.
Because...don't you know that they won the NCE case that didn't actually result in NCE. And they won the 1A case that hasn't influence scripts one bit.
These are huge wins, and they deserve to be handsomely rewarded!
This is the system we live in. It is absolutely out of control.
Ok, that's fine. They don't want to. So every day that passes puts more pressure on this issue. Further limiting any potential upside of any price movements. The "they don't want to" has cost us as they should have taken advantage of $2.50 when they could. But they chose "not to", and now the stock is stuck below $2 and $2 is now a brick wall that won't be breached. It is a quagmire of a situation as further inaction will exacerbate the problem as each passing day results in less and less cash. It is a feedback loop that has no good consequences and no good ending.
So no one should be surprised that this stock isn't "running up".
Correct. Another boring CC with no actual information provided and more uncertainty and vague statements.
It is also interesting how people think they can predict this stock to go up based on TA when completely ignoring all the major FA flaws in this company. The fundamental weaknesses are so massive that any significant upward movement will not happen and has been capped. No TA is going to be able to break through these major fundamental challenges. The thought of a run to near $10 before the DMC decision is so unrealistic its laughable. Even this getting to $3 is highly highly highly unlikely given the balance sheet and cash flows issues that plague the stock and as of yet have been ignored by management. The 800 lb gorilla is when the massive dilution will happen. Management doesn't address it, but the street is very very aware, and hence this stock continues to go nowhere. And yet people every day keep saying how it is about to "blast off" and other absurd statements.
But hey, if you all get warm fuzzies about unrealistic pumping and absurd price targets, with pictures of volcanoes and raining money, then so be it. Whatever gets you through the day. Truth and the real world aren't really a concern on here. Just warm fuzzies.
Its so crazy that people actually believe this.
And JT was President while JZ was CEO. So you think JT had nothing to do with what happened before he became CEO?
So what? Am I supposed to be impressed? Congrats, I guess?
And Oppenheimer doubled their position and you can't wait to shove it in my face? You part of the "billion dollar hedge fund pros are accumulating" group?
Oh ok. Just keep waiting?
Just like how "scripts should take off soon". Just keep repeating it. Day over day. Week over week. Month over month. Maybe one day it will happen.
Yep. runaway gap. Gonna blast through $2 soon. Will be at $3 by next week. And on to near $10 before the DMC decision.
Again, if you keep saying something long enough, it might one day become true. The "blast through $2" prediction from a long time ago is nowhere to be seen.
It is funny how people still give these "fish" posters (its really one person) so much credibility for being always wrong.
The FishyFingers rant (in bold for emphasis) about how the 967 announcement will take this to $3, and then it will run to near $10 before the DMC decision should be an immediate candidate for this board's hall of fame. Along with rafs idea that AMRN should throw the DMC to the side and look at Reduce-It data with the FDA in secret, and Marzan's idea that the FDA might approve Reduce-It because "interim hasn't happened yet so that means the drug is effective".
Not really....
"Look for a high volume wide spread up over $2 closing on or near the daily high on Tuesday folks."
Another great day for these Fish posters. Ya know, the two posters who are most likely the same person. Completely wrong again, and defenders will say they didn't give "solid predictions". But $2 and above on high volume was on the table for today. Like I said, keep saying it long enough, and eventually you will be right.
You posted a link to their 12/31/2015 holdings page, and said they added shares. Which clearly was nonsensical since right now we are waiting for 3/31/2016 holdings. If you would have toggled to 3/31/2016 you would have seen it showed they had SOLD all their shares. This should have spurred you to take further research and actually go to their actual SEC filings page to see the truth. But you didn't. You just posted a lying pump, taking a shot at me in the process. Shocking.
No, Oppenheimer did not release their 13F. I see that today they did file an AMENDED 13F for the prior quarter (12/31/2015). Is that what you are referring to? So once again a blatant misstatement of any sort of truth or fact is thrown around freely on here.
There is no 13F for 3/31/2016 filed, which isn't surprising since the due date is not until the middle of May. But again, they filed an amendment for 12/31/2015. And it seems that this has confused the Whale Wisdom site. Your link takes us to the 12/31/2015 holdings, and it is adding an additional 5.3m shares (basically double counting), because the amended filing has confused it. If you toggle at the top to 3/31/2016, you will see a negative change of 5.3m shares.
The number of AMRN shares in the original 13F is the same as this amended 13F.
Next time you want to throw out facts, pleas make sure they are actually facts. Link to Oppenheimer's SEC filings. The "A" next to the filing name means amended, and at the top of the amended 13F is shows the reporting period as 12/31/2015:
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000728889&owner=include&count=40&hidefilings=0
Right? Because AMRN went to $1.85? Wow, AMRN goes to $1.85 and people lose their damn minds.
To remind you, FishyFingers said the 967 announcement would propel this to $3. And in the ensuing 2-3 months after the announcement the stock would trade up near $10. So yeah, he was right. HAHA. I guess we have different definitions of what "right" means.
Yeah, already got my $150 from HD and my $100 from Raf is supposed to be in transit.
So these aren't "solid predictions"???
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121463258
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121601005
Given the volume, lack of institutional buying, and completely disinterest in this stock/company overall, I feel pretty confident that "professionals" aren't "accumulating". You do realize that "professionals" must file SEC filings that show their ownership every quarter, right? And that recent quarters have shown institutions are selling, not buying. But hey, don't let facts get in the way of of a good pump conspiracy story.
What in the world are you talking about? Seriously, you people are just making s**t completely up. "professional accumulation". Can you give one solid piece of evidence that "professional accumulation" is happening? It doesn't exist. So quit just blatantly making s**t up that makes you feel good inside.
Nope, they have made solid predictions. 967 was going to spur huge buying and a run to near $10. And claims of the "third or fourth week of April". I could go on and on.
No solid predictions..that is hilarious.