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The $NDX likely bottomed in November at an 18 month and 4.5 year cycle low. It is possible that the same occurred for the $SPX, but I would wait until Jan. to say the same for other markets.
cheers,
john
CSCO Long Term Hurst Cycles
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/csco-long-term-hurst-cycles/
In future, I will be posting regularly my Hurst cycle analysis on a blog at Sentient Trader.
cheers,
john
CSCO Long Term Hurst Cycles
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/csco-long-term-hurst-cycles/
In future, I will be posting regularly my Hurst cycle analysis on a blog at Sentient Trader.
cheers,
john
hi euterpe1,
I expect the 4.5 year low to come in late Dec. or Jan. This is based on the contracted 18 month cycles we've seen since the '09 low. But yes the nominal 4.5 cycle period suggests that the 4.5 year low could stretch to Q3 2013. This is not what I anticipate will happen.
The chart below is based on 20+ year data. This analysis is using a 55 month actual cycle period vs. the Hurst 4.5 year (54 month) nominal cycle. That is why you see the orange projection band (bottom right corner of chart) stretch well into 2013.
But if you look at the cycles off the 2009 low, they all contracted as I discussed in the previous post. Thus based on ST analysis using 2009 as a start date, the next 18 month low and hence the next 4.5 Hurst low (nest of lows for both cycles have to occur simultaneously), then the 4.5 year Hurst low could come as early as Dec./Jan. It would be only 45-46 months if this occurs.
Here is a comment this morning discussing the coming 4.5 year cycle low. IMO, it can arrive any time before March 2013, but my best guess is Dec./Jan.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=141757
I hope that clarifies things.
cheers,
john
N.B. Note there are 3 x 18 months cycle periods = 4.5 year Hurst cycle period
$SPX Hurst Analysis
Here is the Sentient Trader analysis for the $SPX basis yesterday's close.
The $SPX is in the third 18 month cycle off the 2009 lows. This 18 month Hurst (nominal) cycle has seen 16 and 15 month periods since '09. Cycles have contracted for this cycle and all shorter cycle periods. Average cycle periods are listed in the bottom right corner of the chart below. Note that the cycle lengths for this cycle averaged greater than 18 months prior to the 2009 low. The contraction of cycle periods is very typical of early bull phases when larger cycles have made their lows, such as the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycles having bottomed in 2009 (and as discussed further on).
40 wk nominal ~ 33.8 wks
20 wk nominal ~ 15.9 wks
80 day nominal ~ 59.8 days (10 wk cycle)
This first chart is run with ST on its own spectral analysis using data start of Jan 2009.
The current 18 month cycle and the 4.5 year cycle are poised to top out in the coming weeks. The nest of lows for these two cycles is projected for yearend or possibly Jan. 2013.
Here is the 4.5 year cycle view based on 1990 data. Here the 4.5 and 9 year cycle lows were made in 2009. The coming 4.5 year Hurst low is shown that it can stretch out well into 2013. However, based on the contracted cycle periods we've seen off the 2009 low, I think the 4.5 year cycle low will come in around the end of the year. Price should find support at the 4.5 year FLD which is down near the $SPX 1100 -1150 level.
A look at GE confirms the same phasing and similar position with respect to the larger cycles. Note how the various FLDs are forming a uniform upward cascading pattern. Once price breaks the first of these shorter term FLDs, downside price targets start to be generated. So far there is no sell signal.
Here is a view of the SPX current 40 week cycle. As price tops out here in the coming days for the 20 wk cycle, it needs to clear the 40 week FLD as indicated below. Another rise resets the FLDs into a better upward cascade position, and from that point a decline into a 20 week low is set to unfold. Price could find support at the 20 wk FLD mid-late Sept. From there we should see one last rally into the days before or during the US elections. From there we should get a better view of how the correction into a 4.5 year Hurst low is likely to unfold. It could be the largest % price decline we've seen since '09.
cheers,
john
sentienttrader.com
$SPX Hurst Analysis
Here is the Sentient Trader analysis for the $SPX basis yesterday's close.
The $SPX is in the third 18 month cycle off the 2009 lows. This 18 month Hurst (nominal) cycle has seen 16 and 15 month periods since '09. Cycles have contracted for this cycle and all shorter cycle periods. Average cycle periods are listed in the bottom right corner of the chart below. Note that the cycle lengths for this cycle averaged greater than 18 months prior to the 2009 low. The contraction of cycle periods is very typical of early bull phases when larger cycles have made their lows, such as the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycles having bottomed in 2009 (and as discussed further on).
40 wk nominal ~ 33.8 wks
20 wk nominal ~ 15.9 wks
80 day nominal ~ 59.8 days (10 wk cycle)
This first chart is run with ST on its own spectral analysis using data start of Jan 2009.
The current 18 month cycle and the 4.5 year cycle are poised to top out in the coming weeks. The nest of lows for these two cycles is projected for yearend or possibly Jan. 2013.
Here is the 4.5 year cycle view based on 1990 data. Here the 4.5 and 9 year cycle lows were made in 2009. The coming 4.5 year Hurst low is shown that it can stretch out well into 2013. However, based on the contracted cycle periods we've seen off the 2009 low, I think the 4.5 year cycle low will come in around the end of the year. Price should find support at the 4.5 year FLD which is down near the $SPX 1100 -1150 level.
A look at GE confirms the same phasing and similar position with respect to the larger cycles. Note how the various FLDs are forming a uniform upward cascading pattern. Once price breaks the first of these shorter term FLDs, downside price targets start to be generated. So far there is no sell signal.
Here is a view of the SPX current 40 week cycle. As price tops out here in the coming days for the 20 wk cycle, it needs to clear the 40 week FLD as indicated below. Another rise resets the FLDs into a better upward cascade position, and from that point a decline into a 20 week low is set to unfold. Price could find support at the 20 wk FLD mid-late Sept. From there we should see one last rally into the days before or during the US elections. From there we should get a better view of how the correction into a 4.5 year Hurst low is likely to unfold. It could be the largest % price decline we've seen since '09.
cheers,
john
sentienttrader.com
P.S. lexus I hope I have address your question regarding the 4.5 year cycle.
$SPX Hurst Analysis
Time for an SPX Hurst analysis update. We did see a 40 week Hurst cycle low in June. We are in the very late stages of the 4.5 year Hurst cycle. An important bottom is due late this year.
I will give a full Sentient Trader analysis in the next post. What I would like to show is the possible path from here. A top is likely in for the current 20 week cycle off the June lows. I have a potential sell for a decline into a 20 week cycle low due mid-late Sept. From there another brief rally takes place into October and may even stretch to the US elections. But from there we fall into a major nest of lows late this year.
The break of the weekly CCI (4) trendline shown above is an early warning for a top to this 20 week cycle.
I would be looking to add short positions late this week (ie. into the JH meeting) for a ST trade. The larger decline will only likely take place after the US elections.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst Analysis
Time for an SPX Hurst analysis update. We did see a 40 week Hurst cycle low in June. We are in the very late stages of the 4.5 year Hurst cycle. An important bottom is due late this year.
I will give a full Sentient Trader analysis in the next post. What I would like to show is the possible path from here. A top is likely in for the current 20 week cycle off the June lows. I have a potential sell for a decline into a 20 week cycle low due mid-late Sept. From there another brief rally takes place into October and may even stretch to the US elections. But from there we fall into a major nest of lows late this year.
The break of the weekly CCI (4) trendline shown above is an early warning for a top to this 20 week cycle.
I would be looking to add short positions late this week (ie. into the JH meeting) for a ST trade. The larger decline will only likely take place after the US elections.
cheers,
john
$SPX Gann Monthly
Here's an update of a long term chart. The Gann fan in question (rising from the '74 low) stopped the $SPX last year. It stopped it in May this year. Given we are getting late in the 4.5 year cycle, I expect it will perform its magic over the next few weeks.
We are right near resistance in so many ways. A double top (with the spring high) would fit perfectly, but the bears don't always get what they want. A short term top at least is worth a wager here.
cheers,
john
Kraft Foods Hurst Analysis
Stocks and the stock markets are forming 4.5 year Hurst cycle highs. A sharp decline into a late year low seems most probable based on the contracted 18 month cycles we've seen since the 2009 lows. Kraft is in a pretty flat trend since its IPO in 2001. That's unfortunate as my wife has a fairly large position in the stock through her employment with Kraft. But the food industry is not a bad place to be.
This sideways trend over the last 10+ years makes for interesting Hurst cycles study and gives some clues as to what lies ahead in the coming months, both for Kraft and the US markets.
First a Hurst view. Charts are shown as monthly, weekly, then daily. There is a very consistent 18 month cycle at work here. The average length is 18.2 months prior to the 2009 low. Post the 2009 low, the 18 month cycles have run very short at 15 and 16 months. This cycle contraction is very typical of early bull markets. Thus I expect that 2009 was both a 4.5 and 9 year cycle low for Kraft. I have used an expert model to run this analysis and I have pinned certain cycle lows (eg. Aug. 2004 - 4.5 year low). The ability to pin a particular cycle low is a new feature of the updated Sentient Trader software.
Price is approaching the top of a very clear upchannel. Resistance comes in just under $42, and then $44 the all time high. With the approaching split late this year (Kraft is breaking up into two companies), the stock may well test the upper channel. A crosscurrent though will be the 4.5 year cycle low which is due anytime from late this year into 2013. How KFT will trade from here may be in a sideways consolidation. A pause zone is setting up (see gray area on daily chart). This is projected by the fact that the FLDs from the 40 week on down are bunching up. Eventually the stock should be testing the lower channel and when a 4.5 year cycle low is approaching, we should see the lower trendline break.
If Kraft were to put in another 15 month cycle into the coming nested 4.5 year cycle low, that low is then projected for late December 2012. That would mean three 15 or 16 month cycles in a row. Unlikely, but very possible.
I've included other views; Gann and Ichimoku Cloud. These monthly charts again suggest a very nice uptrend. The pause zone may see trading within a range of $37 - 42. Next support is $35 and a likely minimum target for a 4.5 year cycle low. The Ichimoku cloud support on the monthly is all the way down near $30. I can't see price hitting that level late this year. However with the US tax changes coming, dividend stocks may take a nasty hit and Kraft is a prime candidate. No doubt many investors are holding this stock for its dividend.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com
Exited most longs taken this summer today. Had a great holiday at the cottage.
I'll try to run a full $SPX Hurst analysis by tomorrow.
cheers,
john
hi All,
I meant to say that early June was the 40 week Hurst cycle low, not early July IMO.
We may have seen the $SPX 10 week low this past week. It would have been early, and if one were inclined, you would be placing the 5 week low in late June for the $SPX and the 5,10 week nest of lows mid-week this week.
Regardless, a test of the 1400 level seems inevitable and the US markets continue to lead most everything else in this universe.
There is an important turn due in early August and at this point I am clueless as to whether it will be a high or a better 10 week low for the $SPX.
I am off cottaging for the next week so we'll catch up with you later in August.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
hi rab,
Expect a test of 1420 after the 10 week low is in (early Aug.?). That is what is still possible. But it is a traders market for now no doubt.
Sentiment is low enough to support a market bottom, but price action and technically its not there right now to support an all in bullish stance.
cheers,
john
hi Bangtime,
Early July marked the 40 week Hurst low IMO. It looks as if we'll see a 10 week low here early August. Markets are much weaker than I expected, especially the $TSX (Toronto). I would be trading 10 week cycles from here and keeping things very close to the chest. That is my moto until we see something technically stronger. We may see more of a consolidation the way this is going into the fall. That would not be very bullish, but quite choppy. And then we have to make the 4.5 year Hurst low after the US elections some time. LOL.
cheers,
john
hi DowDeva,
We've had a lift higher from the June lows and now a pullback to the week of the 16th (low could form early that week). I'm bullish from there and will accumulate trading positions again this week and add to accounts. However we are already fairly long from June.
The challenge this year is to figure out how the 4.5 year Hurst low comes and goes. I think it will contract, which would be very consistent with the shorter cycle periods we've seen for the 18 month cycle off the 2009 low. The 4 year could be a straddle move with the lows in June and then early next year. And we might actually see a higher low come in early next year.
What seems in the cards is a rally into the election. I'm betting on it and real evidence should surface by late July.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
P.S. I am switching to a new version of Sentient this week and I am not fully setup. But I should have more market time now.
hi DowDeva,
I'm still knee deep in home reno projects. So there is little time for good detailed Hurst analysis at my end.
David Hickson, the creator of Sentient Trader provides some very good analysis in his ST outlook:
http://sentienttrader.com/st-outlook/st-outlook-16-june-2012/
Was June 4th the 40 week cycle low? Quite possibly, but we still await clear confirmation. One way or another I will be fully long by the end of June.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
FB - DowDeva
Facebook was insanely overvalued at the IPO offering. Not sure where the valuation comes into line with other tech stocks.
I'm looking for the $SPX 40 week low to form in June. There will be a lot of temptation to call it here with Monday's low. But I'm not sure we will see traction until after the Greek elections mid-month. We need FLD signals and VTL breaks ~ 1315-1320 before any Hurst confirmation which is quite a stretch from the 1267 low.
cheers,
john
Denmo et al.,
Yes my health is as good as ever. It was a long journey last year but I learned a lot.
I'm still really busy doing various projects on our home. Hopefully things will quiet down this summer and I will get a chance to post more often.
cheers,
john
USD Index Hurst Cycles
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=76079811
cheers,
john
USD Index Hurst Cycles
Here's an update from last summer. See link below for charts and commentary.
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=377&p=1621#p1621
I apologize for not posting much these days, but I am still really busy with home projects. Hopefully this will change this summer.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
Hi All,
I got up very early this morning to review the USD Index and prepare this update. It has been a while since my last post and I am still very busy with home reno projects.
The last time we looked at the USD Index, it was forming an 18 month cycle trough, which did arrive May/June last year. This coincided with a topping process in many world markets. Commodities have since come of in a big way. So what lies ahead? The following assumes that the long term phasing discussed in this thread is correct. If for some reason the longer cycles have bottomed (ie. 4.5 and 9 year Hurst), then a much more bullish picture is likely to emerge for the USD. I'm in the bearish USD camp for now.
Since the last post at the 18 month low, the USD Index has not done a whole lot. This despite terrible volatiltity in commodities and gold etc, and weak world markets in general. I am watching the USD now closely to see just when the bearish trend will reassert itself for the USD. Here's why.
The larger Hurst cycles for the USD Index, the 4.5 and 9 year, are now pointing down. The last 4.5 year low arrived in late 2009. The last 9 year low arrived in late 2004. Here is the long view.
[attachment=3]30 year chart 4.5 and 9 year cycles.png[/attachment]
The USD Index is now getting very overbought and it is getting late in the current 18 month cycle.
On the long view, the USD Index has yet to take out its 4.5 and 9 year FLDs to the upside.
[attachment=2]DXY Futures May 2012 NM troughs start 95 ST monthly.png[/attachment]
If we are looking for bearish signposts from a Hurst perspective, there are plenty. If the current phasing is correct, the 18 month, 4.5 and 9 year cycles are pointing down at this time. The 18 month FLD was crossed to the upside in Dec. 2011 and yielded a price objective of ~85 which so far has not been met. Perhaps we will see a spike low for the Euro in June, but until then the USD is showing weakness not having met the 85 target.
[attachment=1]DXY Futures May 2012 NM troughs start 95 ST 18 mth FLD.png[/attachment]
I expect an important low for markets in June. This is potentially only a 40 week Hurst low for most markets, but in my view it is likely to be more than that. If the USD is about to turn down and head into the next 18 month cycle low, markets should be supported by this and rally into the autumn of this year. This may lead to a contracted 4.5 year Hurst cycle for the $SPX and many world markets.
[attachment=0]DXY Futures May 2012 NM troughs start 95 ST monthly 4.5 year cycle.png[/attachment]
TWT. I would be very cautious of being too bearish equity markets once the 40 week has been seen.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
HUI Gann Monthly
The Hurst picture was telling in 2011 (see post I replied to). We did see a broad top form. The question now is whether this will be a consolidation holding the HUI 467 fib as support, or will there be a breakdown as described in the chart below.
Important support coming in for the HUI with the HUI 467 Fib and the 3:1 Gann fan from the 2000 lows. Failure to hold means a test of 2006 levels. HUI is ripe for major cycle lows.
cheers,
john
Nirvana,
Until I see evidence of the next 4.5 year low, due in 2013 or 2014, I will regard the Aug 2007 cycle low as nothing more than an 18 month low.
cheers,
john
SPX Hurst 10 week cycle
Northam43,
I have a 10 week low due next week or in early April. Another test of highs then likely with the US markets clearly leading just about everything in the universe (very deceptive), while many markets look less bullish. The Toronto market in particular, due to its heavy commodity weighting, looks bad. The TSX cannot take out its highs from last fall.
I still look for a healthy correction and a potential buy in June at the projected 40 week low.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
$SPX Hurst Cycle Analysis
I've have changed my long term phasing for the $SPX. My comments can be found here:
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=498&p=1609#p1609
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
sentiment,
I am looking for a top after this FED meeting (March 14th +/- 2 days) this week. A 40 week cycle low is due in June and it could also be a first leg down into a 4.5 year low for the US markets. I am expecting the 4.5 year cycle to contract and the June low could be an important one. I will post a Sentient Trader outlook tonight after the close.
cheers,
john
Juglar/Kitchin Cycles
I thought this was an interesting note put out by UBS Technical Research. Both the Juglar and Kitchin cycles bottom in 2012. I don't follow these cycles but do note when their lows coincide.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-ciovacco/2012/01/06/yields-cycles-sentiment-say-gains-may-not-last
cheers,
john
Bear market comparisons
Qone0,
I have equated the SPX top in 2000 as the start of this secular bear. I believe the nominal low for this secular bear has already been seen in 2009. In inflation adjusted terms, we have yet to see the lows.
Here is an interesting comp. We could see important lows in 2012 and then again in 2014, but with rallies that preceed them (as we are seeing now).
I cannot remember the reference for this chart.
See earlier post today for the article referencing this chart.
cheers,
john
hi Nirvana,
Gann is a very quirky technique. In some ways it is about cycles, but it has nothing to do with traditional methods like Hurst cycles. The interesting thing is how at 150 month intervals, you've seen some pretty dramatic trend changes.
TWT.
cheers,
john
The Aftermath Of Secular Bear Markets
Published August 27th, 2009 in Technical Analysis
I submit that the nominal low for the US markets in real terms (not inflation adjusted was seen in 2009). I do foresee a lengthy period where stock markets will still underperform inflation (and hard asset plays).
I think the US markets are playing out as described in this article below. Markets will be range bound, although a very good rally should start from the coming summer low.
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/the-aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets-2893.html
GLGT.
cheers,
john
$SPX Gann 150 month cycle
I had to scroll back a while to find my last Gann post. Interestingly SPX 1075 did hold into the fall low.
A chart I have been keeping for a while is this 150 month cycle. It coincides with the June '62 low, the Dec. '74 low and the Oct. '87 crash low. In March 2000 it marked a top.
Again, I'm thinking a significant low is due this summer. My date right now is mid-June. We are likely very close to a nice top. That is likely by early March. We could see another test of the high March 14th+/-.
cheers,
john
1974 Deja vu
Yes I am still alive ...
Have moved house but still in major renovation. I won't be back to my normal market activities until spring.
I posted my thoughts over at the Sentient forum tonight.
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=493&p=1603#p1603
I will try to dig into a Hurst analysis in the coming week.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
Quick comment before I go for the day. The 2.5 week low is due, I am just not sure if the cycle will come in at its nominal cycle period which was yesterday.
I see a mixed picture with my expert model, but sentient is still waiting for a 10 week low to arrive. So the short term cycles could extend. But a good low is due in the coming days.
Here is my expert model updated with last night's data. Here Oct. 4th is a mere 10 week low and the 18 month is not confirmed.
Here is Sentient on its own. Again a 10 week low is due.
So I would say it would be best to wait for the 10 week low if it is still due. I thought the 10 week low was likely Nov. 25th. Cycles may be extending here.
Gotta run.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
I wish I had the time to resolve which phasing makes more sense. Normally I would spend hours working it out, but right now there is no time for that.
Below is Sentient run with my expert model, one I have been working with for the last 2+ years. The strange thing is that Sentient is NOT confirming the 80 week cycle low (this would be indicated by at least the initial placement of a hollow yellow diamond), either for the October or November lows. The buy we got late last summer was a clear 80 week cycle buy and everything lined up per Hurst. This time is different and yet we are 17 months along from the last 18 month low.
I have no preferred scenario anymore. Things can go either way and I think you are right to simply make the short term trades until things resolve themselves.
As I am spending so little time on the markets, it really affects my sense of what the markets are doing. So forecasting and anticipating the market going forward will be unreliable until I can get back to it more seriously next year.
The only thing I would guess at right now is that price, for the time being, will be trapped between the 18 month FLD (yellow line) and the 4.5 year FLD (orange line). But once we get confirmation of the 4.5 year low, we will see an upward break in price and a new bull leg. The big question remains WHEN?
I would also like to work through the long term phasings from the 70s as you are attempting to do. In my case it will have to wait.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst 80 week low
I can't get a proper 80 week cycle low buy setup. It makes me think that cycles have extended considerably and that we may have only seen a 20 week low that started Oct. 4th. I lean more and more toward this possible phasing. It creates quite a mixed bag for us Hursties. If this phasing is in effect, it means that this rally that started off the Oct. 4th lows will eventually peak out and lead to a terrific decline next year sometime.
I will speculate right now that we could see an important longer term low by mid-2012. But the trading and the market in general could be quite difficult until then. TWT.
The chart below is produced with Sentient run without an expert model, but rather with its own spectral analysis and interpretation.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
DowDeva,
I'm thinking to trade long the coming 2.5 week low. It is due Friday or Monday. I'll have to refine that, but for now that is my thought. If we saw a 10 week low off of Nov. 25th, then we should see more of this rally out of the 2.5 week low. I'm thinking a trade long into late Dec.
I'll try to update Thursday evening.
cheers,
john
P.S. I should add that I am finally off prednisone since about 3 weeks. This killer diet and Reiki (Japanese energy therapy) finally got me off the immunosuppresant.
$SPX Hurst comment
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=69371517
$SPX Hurst comment
I had speculated for a while that late Nov. would be the 80 week low for the $SPX. I did not foresee the terrific rally in October, only a bounce from a 10 week low. I have suggested that I would be buying the coming 10 week low and I started doing that from Wed. onward last week. Here is the phasing below for the $SPX on the daily. So I bought primarily on the assumption that my phasing shown below is correct, that buy being made even though I have no clear Hurst buy signal. What we get from here is still an unknown, but that is where I am at. The chart shown below is as of Friday's close. It doesn't look like a bottom, although I have thought a higher low was very possible for this 10 week low.
I apologize for not making my buying public. But to be honest I was not very confident in that buy and I am still not confident. We could see another leg down into Dec. or not. These markets are very difficult to predict with the news flow.
I am very busy organizing two houses as we plan a move in the New Year. I don't have much time for the markets these days, and I am hoping to hold the positions taken last week for a while, particularly if an 80 week low has been seen. TWT.
cheers,
john
P.S. Thank you to all for your kind comments. I read the board regularly but I just don't have much time for market analysis of posting.
www.sentienttrader.com
re: Hurst update
hi Slinky,
I posted my thoughts over at the Sentient forum this morning.
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=476&p=1568#p1568
I don't have the time right now to do a thorough analysis of say the 30 DOW stocks, but just looking at a few names it is suggests that we are not likely making 9 year lows here for the US markets this fall. To take the 2009 low as a 4.5 and 9 year low makes more sense given price action late this year.
I have been entertaining the idea the last few months that we are in a new 4.5 year cycle much like off the '74 low. I wanted to see the price action this fall before taking it more seriously. And if this is the case, then until we make the coming 4.5 year cycle low (which means we will have to get through at least one more 18 month cycle), these markets will be very tricky to trade from a Hurst perspective.
We are closing on a house today. We haven't been home owners in the last 16 years (due to my wife's expat status), so busy times ahead.
cheers,
john
P.S. I am finally off prednisone for the first time since March and things are looking up regarding my health and autoimmune condition. :)
slinky,
The only other possibility is that Aug 31 2010 was the last 80 week low (instead of July 1) which would have been a 17.6 month cycle period off the March 2009 low. Then the Oct. 4th low could have been either a 20 week or a late 40 week low. That would still fit with a coming 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows by mid-year 2012.
The problem with the phasing we have been using in this 18 month cycle (off the July 2010 low) is that the amplitude of this rally does not "fit" the phasing and the idea that Oct. 4th was merely a 10 week low.
cheers,
john