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Lets face it. ARIA is starting to act considerably better then the overall market.
ARIA will explode whenever the market turns. I have that sense watching it trade the last couple of days.
As I said earlier today its the first time in a long time that ARIA is acting better then the overall market. Could be important for the near term in the stock.
For once we aggree.
I certainly don't think everything ARIA does is a slam dunk. I think in the past Berger has made some very poor choices. Like pressing that law suit against LLY when I knew ( and said it ) that it was a waste of time and money and that ARIA would surely lose it. I consider myself a realist and that has generally proven out in my investments. Like everyone else I have had my share of losing investments but considering that I started investing in Biotech about 20 years ago with about 12 cents and I now have somewhat more then that I quess I've been somewhat realistic.
So lets be realistic about ARIA. Nothing in life is a 100 percent deal but I'm sure most people would aggree that an NDA for Rida will be filed by MRK and more then likely be approved. Most people think PONA ( based on some terrific results thus far ) will be a major drug in the fight against CML ( and probably in other indications as well ) . Based on what I think are very good odds on this scenario happening I've made a very substantial bet on ARIA. Time will tell whether I've been realistic or not.
No. Generally stocks sell off after ASCO because they have had a good run up before in anticipation of the good news. Its the old sell on the news routine. You seem to totally ignore the fantastic p values that RIDA had in the phase 3 results. They can't be ignored. Good results at ASCO for RIDA are a slam dunk. You seem to try very hard to find the negative in everything that ARIA comes with. Why is that?
Virtually nobody goes to ASCO to talk about the bad drug they have. You can be rest assured that MRK is going to ASCO to talk about the good results with RIDA. Buying starts on ASCO stocks well before the companies make their presentations so we're not talking about very long from now.
today is the first time in a long time that ARIA is acting better than the market. Maybe the beginning of a new move up.
The selling in the stock is very peculiar. Its done where the seller instead of trying to get the best price for his stock throws market orders in to sell 10 or 20 thousand shares at the market every time the stock moves up a couple of cents. A seller who wants to get the best price on his sale lets the sock run and then feeds demand by offerring his stock without fully showing the size of his order. But a seller who throws in market orders after there looks like there is some demand out there is not interested in getting the best price for his stock. He wants to keep the stock under pressure. The short position for this current period could be very interesting.
what is going on here with the unusual volume that goes back and forth.
There is a large struggle going on in the stock right now. There are very big buyers around the area of 6.35 and there are very big sellers in the 6.40 area. We'll know soon how this plays out.
what did they say
By his mentioning partnering in Japan and Asia I think he is telegraphing an announcement. Expect it soon.
wrong again. a great call with some new info.
Based on the presentation today I would quess that a partnership in Japan and Asia on Ponatnib is imminent.
So. Whether the news of the financing was released on Monday or Tuesday it doesn't jibe with the post that said they always do good news Monday or Tuesday. I would not call that good news and the market certainly took it as bad news.
This is so silly. On Monday Oct 25 Aria traded 3.7 million shares and closed 4.10 on the good Endo news. On Tuesday Oct 26 ARIA closed at 3.71 on 8.8 million shares on the bad financing news.
Whatever. I don't remember what the exact time of the bad news but its effect was that the bad news came out for trading on Tuesday, Oct 26.
the ENDO results were announced the day before on Monday.
The last negative news on ARIA was on TUESDAY Oct 26 when they announced their last financing. There goes the good news on Monday and Tuesday and bad news the rest of the week theory.
never going to happen
The stock has the same pattern every day. It opens weak and then short sellers knock it down because they can with the light volume. They're hoping that it would scare other people into selling. But buyers at some point in the morning start bidding ( you have to look for when the bids start growing ) and then the real players ( the big buyers ) come in at the end of the day.
whenever ARIA volume becomes this light it has usually been followed by an upside breakout.
The only way big pharma can get some sizzle back in their stocks is to make deals with exciting, potential laden biotech companies. ARIA certainly qualifies on that score.
I think that this thinking of MRk as to their concentrating on their new drugs is potentially good news for ARIA
MRK emphasized that it was going to concentrate their expenditures on their new, young programs as opposed to old programs. They pointed out that going forward there will be more new filings then in the past.
Aren't you glad now that you didn't try to time the market and sell your stock.
This is big stuff. I have a feeling that we will be hearing much more about this in the near future. It also points up how seriously undervalued this stock is. There are so many realistic shots on goal here.
This stock is going much higher because it makes absolute sense for that to happen. If you think you can time the market be my quest but the biggest mistakes over my years of Biotech investing is when I've tried to time market moves. I've been a very successful biotech investor overall by just trying to apply common sense rather then trying to quess overall market moves.
Not a chance that gap is filled. Just relax. When the market starts moving up again ( which it will next week ) ARIA will be one of the first stocks that explodes.
from recent experience when the volume dries up like it has today the next move is up.
When I make a trading call I'm usually right. You can look at past calls of mine and their right on.
Its setting up now for another explosion to the upside
Notice how the volume has dried up. This is very good because it means those who wanted to take profits or who wanted to be the so called"smart" ones to get out before the gap was closed ( which is not going to happen)are done.
The stock is now ready to start exploding on the upside again.
Its not going to fill the gap because as irrational as the markets can be sometimes there is generally a semblance of sanity there and based on everything thats happened recently 5.25 is now totally insane.
I think this is a bear raid. The shorts are trying to scare people out. Don't let it happen to you.
Based on what we know now there is absolutely no way that gap gets filled. As I said last week, within 60 days the stock will be 10.
I know that the natural urge would be to sell the gap but I would stifle that urge. There is nothing but good news for the foreseeable future on ARIA. MRK filing on other indications on RIDA, good 534 news and eventually someone ( probably MRK ) making a run for the company.
If you look at my post Friday I said the news would come this morning because MRK needs a win. Just call me Nostradanus.
MRK needs some good news. I wouldn't be surprised if their saving Succeed results for Tuesday morning.