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ok--logic is sound if it's mostly fat; not so sure if it's muscle...
OT: Not sure I understand your point. So if a QB is stronger he's more likly to get injured???
TLS Showing Signs of Turning
Not A Healthy Market
http://www.cross-currents.net/outlook.htm
Bob Brinker Update
If anyone here follows Bob Brinker, what's his current take on the Nasdaq Index or QQQQ? TIA
TTT--7 Dec 05
Shooting Star False Breakout Quickly Reversed. The market is looking a bit tired. Tuesday’s action looks like a false breakout and Shooting Star. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2005, the 8 trading days 12/6 though 12/15 have been down on balance over the past 20 years. On Tuesday, stock prices gapped higher on the open, following a reported upward revision to third quarter productivity to 4.7% and a 1.0% decline in unit labor costs. The report provided fast temporary relief for minor inflation concerns. But the relief was indeed temporary. Stocks peaked at about 12:25 p.m., when the C Fund seemingly broke out to its highest price level of the year.
But stocks stalled for a couple of hours, then slid steeply in the last hour to close below the open. The day’s action resembled, imperfectly, a particular Japanese Candlestick Bearish Reversal. The Shooting Star has a long upper shadow, a small real body at the lower end of the price range, and little or no lower shadow. After an upward move in previous sessions, there is a strong rally from the open, but the high prices were rejected by the market, and prices collapsed back down to close near the open. This means that after early buying enthusiasm on the open, the rally attempt proved unsustainable, an obvious failure of demand. It is more significant if the current open gaps up from the previous real body, which it did in this case.
Fixed-income instruments (notes and bonds or the F Fund) also rebounded on the news. Nevertheless, interest rates still appear to be in a major uptrend, which eventually hurts most stocks, as well as notes and bonds.
NYSE volume fell to 21,107,250,000 shares, down from 23,331,210,000 on Monday. Falling volume on rallies is an indication that the demand/supply balance for stocks may not be strong. Volume momentum indicators continue to lag price momentum indicators. As a result, I'm still seeking the safety of the G Fund.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 7 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 7 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 7 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) No buy possible on 7 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
W@G2 QQQQ 12/07/05 for a 12/09/05 close
41.26 frenchee
I feel it's just getting started...
I typically move it daily based on risk, anticipated support, or anticipated resistance. My lessons learned from 2000 are still painfull...
Yes--got stop at 42.43 if there's a surge on Wednesday...
Wonder how far the afternoon sell of in QQQQ will get? Any WAGs for the next 45 minutes?
Week 14--ATL
Not much new to say lexus300. I'm short QQQQ from 42 and expecting the gap between 39.40 and 39.60 to be filled or at least a tag of the lower Bollinger Band.
Short-term trend is still up but it's looking like big mo is getting tired. Note how QQQQ indicators are starting to roll over...
Excellent article Bullwinkle...
swing man,
ZQK just got a 5-star rating from Standard & Poors today. Its chart doesn't look encourging now but I'm putting it on my watch list.
TTT--6 Dec 05
Stock Prices Lead the Economy. Reports on U. S. economic activity continue to show strength, but the stock market is not responding. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management survey of the services sector indicated growth in most of the U.S. economy, as 58.5% of purchasing managers reported increased activity. New orders rose to 59.5%, employment rose to 57.0%, supplier delivery rose to 60.5%, and inventories sentiment rose to 54%. Prices paid fell to 74.2% from 78%, despite high energy prices, which raise the costs of freight, materials, and services. This encourages those who believe that the economy leads stock prices (which is not true) to be Bullish. In fact, it is the other way around--stock prices lead the economy.
The bond market and F Fund took another beating. A very strong economy is not good for bonds, since it just encourages the Fed to raise interest rates further. So far, the stock market seems to be overlooking the Fed’s persistent upward interest rate direction, which historically has been bad for the prices of financial assets, both stocks and bonds.
Investor sentiment indicators still show a very high level of Bullish enthusiasm, which is a potential warning sign, according to the Art of Contrary Opinion.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 6 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 6 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 6 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) No buy possible on 6 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
swing man,
Please give me an e-mail @ frenchpj@lycos.com. I've got a private communication for you.
Thanks
If I'm lucky the next couple of weeks I'll get a free premium subscription to I-Hub...
You are welcome sir...
Hi stocks4john,
Sorry, I don't have PM ability. You can e-mail me at frenchpj@lycos.com and I can respond that way if it suffices.
frenchee
W@G1 QQQQ 12/05/05 for a 12/07/05 close
41.19 frenchee
Thanks for your confirmation...
Should move it short term as idex mutual funds and associated ETFs will scramble to get it.
OT: AIR DOMINANCE FOR DECADES
http://www.military.com/soldiertech/0,14632,Soldiertech_Airdominance,,00.html?ESRC=soldiertech.nl
OT: Shorters' Lullaby
Rock-a-bye market
Way up at the top.
If rates keep on rising
The bubble will pop.
And when the Dow breaks
The NASDAQ will fall
And down will come Greenspan
The dollar and all.
GOOD LUCK royg1927!
Thanks for the sage advice AnderL.
I loaded up on QQQQ @ $42 and will keep my stop tight.
Always enjoy your board...
Way to WAG Dr Worm!
Gizmo,
I believe $WTIC bottomed this week. What's your opinion?
TTT--5 Dec 05
Spinning Top: Indecisive Standoff. The news background indicates that the U.S. economy has been extremely strong, and the media talking heads are working overtime putting a Bullish spin on everything imaginable. So, the great majority of stock traders and investors is very Bullish. Against this background, the previously strong 7-week trend has been losing upside momentum over the past 5 trading sessions, a sign of fatigue. And with technical divergences and non confirmations looming, as well as the advanced age of the 2002-2005 stock market recovery, the reward/risk probabilities may be more uncertain than most people imagine looking out a few months ahead. Furthermore, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2005, the 8 trading days 12/6 though 12/15 have been down on balance over the past 20 years.
On Friday, stock prices finished narrowly mixed in much slower trading. In terms of Japanese Candlestick Chart pattern recognition, Friday’s action was a Spinning Top, with shadows longer than the real body. Spinning Tops indicate indecision, a standoff of bullish and bearish forces. This follows Three Black Crows on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Three Black Crows more decisively reverse an existing uptrend. Three Black Crows are three relatively large, consecutive black candlesticks that close near or at their lows of the day.
NYSE volume fell to 2,125,581,000 on Friday, down from 2,614,830,000 shares traded on Thursday. This large decline in volume supports the indecisive nature of Friday’s session. Longer term, the demand/supply balance for stocks leaves much to be desired. Volume and price momentum indicators actually topped out on 1/26/04, have been trending downward ever since, and continue to lag the more widely followed price-only indicators.
Bullish sentiment measures still appear excessive. Equity call/put ratios have been rising steeply since October and now are running at their highest levels in more than 3 months. On Friday, 12/2/05, the ISE Sentiment Index (call/put volume ratio) jumped up to 232, which is more than 2 standard deviations above the 6-month mean and one of the highest readings of the year, indicating that options speculators are feeling very Bullish indeed. Also, the latest Investors Intelligence survey shows a low and falling percentage of Bears, now 21.1%. The percentage of Bulls rose for the 5th consecutive week to 55.8%, the highest level in 3 months. The market may be ripe for a downside shakeout, according to “The Art of Contrary Opinion.” Meanwhile, the smart-money professional Commercial Traders are shorting stock index futures more heavily.
Crude oil appears to have made a small double bottom pattern near 55.67, the high of 10/25/04 and an expected support level. The major trends for oil, commodities, and gold remain Bullish, which means inflation for the U.S. economy, and that is not good for stocks and bonds.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 5 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 5 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 5 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Buy a 25% position in S Fund if $EMW or DWCP < $548.66 on 5 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
Good Info nilightn.
Thanks for sharing...
Very Good Question mr_cash4.
Upside Reversal Needs Follow-through. On Wednesday morning, stock prices gapped higher and continued a fairly steady advance until 1:35 p.m. Prices drifted slightly lower in mild afternoon profit taking. Technical momentum indicators, such as MACD, RSI, and Stochastic, turned higher, but only slightly higher, thus setting up the potential for a negative momentum divergence that bears close watching.
Fixed-income instruments (notes and bonds) were weakest, breaking sharply downward in price. Interest rates appear to be in a major uptrend, which eventually hurts most stocks, as well as notes and bonds, of course.
The time-tested, century-old Dow Theory has stubbornly refused to confirm the recent October-December rally as a Major Primary Tide Bull Market. The Dow Theory requires both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average to close at higher highs compared to their previous Secondary Wave closing highs or, stated another way, intermediate-term swing extreme peaks. (All Dow Theory analysis counts daily closing prices only and ignores intraday extreme prices.) Recently, although the Transportation Average closed solidly above its 3/7/05 closing peak of 3,876.13, the Industrial Average has remained below its 3/4/05 closing peak of 10,940.55. Until or unless the Industrial Average closes at a higher high, above 10,940.55, the Dow Theory is saying that this year-end rally is still questionable. The Dow Theory has a good record over many decades of actual market history, and traders and investors alike would benefit from studying it thoroughly.
On Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, Nonfarm Payrolls are generally expected to rise by 210,000, according to the consensus of economists. A much larger rise would probably pressure note and bond prices further to the downside, and might also dampen Bullish spirits in the stock crowd. On the other hand, a much smaller rise might allow some recovery attempt in note and bond prices, and that might contribute to further Bullish feelings toward stocks. But given the larger Bearish trend for fixed income markets, any news-related up move in price might be very temporary.
The fourth quarter market advance was being stalled earlier this week partially by the inability of small and mid-cap stocks to break through their summer highs. That inability was corrected today. Small and mid-caps have been market laggards throughout the recent rally. Today's relative strength by the small and mid-caps may be suggesting more leadership from that group. As a result, I plan to start accumulating a VXF position on moderate weakness in this area.
In sum, nearly everybody is quite Bullish, the seven-week trend has been Bullish, the news background indicates that the U.S. economy has been extremely strong, and seasonal tendencies for December have been mostly Bullish. But with the above non confirmations and negative technical indications, as well as the advanced age of this 2002-2005 stock market recovery, the reward/risk probabilities may be more uncertain than most people think looking out a few months ahead.
TTT--2 Dec 05
Upside Reversal Needs Follow-through. On Wednesday morning, stock prices gapped higher and continued a fairly steady advance until 1:35 p.m. Prices drifted slightly lower in mild afternoon profit taking. Technical momentum indicators, such as MACD, RSI, and Stochastic, turned higher, but only slightly higher, thus setting up the potential for a negative momentum divergence that bears close watching.
Fixed-income instruments (notes and bonds) were weakest, breaking sharply downward in price (F Fund). Interest rates appear to be in a major uptrend, which eventually hurts most stocks, as well as notes and bonds, of course.
Volume rose to 2,614,830,000, versus 2,390,657,000 shares traded on Wednesday on the NYSE. Rising volume on rallies is an indication that the demand/supply balance for stocks tilted to the Bullish side. New 2005 closing price highs were posted by the Semiconductors, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 (a small cap index which most correlates to the S Fund).
The time-tested, century-old Dow Theory has stubbornly refused to confirm the recent October-December rally as a Major Primary Tide Bull Market. The Dow Theory requires both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average to close at higher highs compared to their previous Secondary Wave closing highs or, stated another way, intermediate-term swing extreme peaks. (All Dow Theory analysis counts daily closing prices only and ignores intraday extreme prices.) Recently, although the Transportation Average closed solidly above its 3/7/05 closing peak of 3,876.13, the Industrial Average has remained below its 3/4/05 closing peak of 10,940.55. Until or unless the Industrial Average closes at a higher high, above 10,940.55, the Dow Theory is saying that this year-end rally is still questionable. The Dow Theory has a good record over many decades of actual market history, and traders and investors alike would benefit from studying it thoroughly.
On Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, Nonfarm Payrolls are generally expected to rise by 210,000, according to the consensus of economists. A much larger rise would probably pressure note and bond prices further to the downside, and might also dampen Bullish spirits in the stock crowd. On the other hand, a much smaller rise might allow some recovery attempt in note and bond prices, and that might contribute to further Bullish feelings toward stocks. But given the larger Bearish trend for fixed income markets, any news-related up move in price might be very temporary for the C Fund.
The fourth quarter market advance was being stalled earlier this week partially by the inability of small and mid-cap stocks to break through their summer highs (S Fund). That inability was corrected today. Small and mid-caps have been market laggards throughout the recent rally. Today's relative strength by the small and mid-caps may be suggesting more leadership from that group. As a result, I plan to start accumulating an S Fund position on moderate weakness in this area.
In sum, nearly everybody is quite Bullish, the seven-week trend has been Bullish, the news background indicates that the U.S. economy has been extremely strong, and seasonal tendencies for December have been mostly Bullish. But with the above non confirmations and negative technical indications, as well as the advanced age of this 2002-2005 stock market recovery, the reward/risk probabilities may be more uncertain than most people think looking out a few months ahead.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 2 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 2 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 2 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) Buy a 25% position in S Fund if $EMW or DWCP < $548.15 on 2 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
frankp3,
Hope your assumption is right! Loaded short @ 42 on QQQQ today.
Weekly Chart Looking Toppy As of 30 Nov 05.
Note readings the past two years on RSI, CMF, and +DI associated with the price tops. With the rolling over that's happening now, will history repeat? This chart seems to be implying a correction to 39.45--38...
Is Channels & Cycles: A Tribute to J. M. Hurst worth buying? TIA for your opinions.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/0934380503/ref=cm_cr_dp_pt/002-0914197-6376847?%5F...
This news could help Couer d'Alene to reach the lower price channel line on 4God's chart. Perhaps a lower risk buying opportunity will soon be at hand?
Thanks for the post Bob.
TycoonSoon,
I can't respond to a private message on I-Hub. Send your message to me at my e-mail address.