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Guys--Don't forget to WAG the QQQQ at BULL's board
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1744
swing man,
I'm hoping for a run up to 42.31 so I can reshort this puppy. If it gets up to 42.15 on Wednesday and then starts to go down, I'll probably pull the trigger.
Negative divergence with price among volume and momentum indicators abound for QQQQ on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands are narrowing so big move coming...
Currently, I'm flat relative to QQQQ.
Good Luck guys!
W@G2 QQQQ 12/14/05 for a 12/16/05 close
42.67 DrWorm
41.56 frenchee
CAR to win in week 15
Thanks.
I got stopped out but it wasn't cheap!
I figure I cannot loose no more than .5% but a regression inside the Bollinger Bands will bring at least 3%.
Thanks for the advice Dr Worm. Did just what you suggested!
Used GFI proceeds to short BR @ 82.50 with stop at 82.89. Perhaps lightening can strick twice?
Good luck!
BTW--filled short on GFI today @ 16.83. Couldn't resist taking the 4.9% gain!
OT: Lisa, GFI looking like it needs a consolidation...
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8840187
GFI Set for A Correction to Its Mean.
Note the negative divergence between price and the Chaikin MFI/Oscillator with today's price range outside the upper Bollinger Band. Also, it's hard to maintain such a steep price ascent. Lastly, the trend of volume hasn't confirmed the price run since the mid-Nov period. As a result, I'm expecting a consolidation to the 21-day SMA before meaningful support.
With gold at a 24-year high and today's price range outside the upper Bollinger Band, I couldn't resist. I'm looking for a move to the 21-day SMA as a target to cover as regression to the mean is most likely given the overbought nature of the stock.
Covered EWJ this morning and went short GFI @ 17.70. My read on Japan was wrong...
Welcome to the board mokew!
Thanks for the info on adds and deletes...
W@G1 QQQQ 12/12/05 for a 12/14/05 close
41.43 frenchee
TTT--12 Dec 05
Less Than Impressive. On Friday, the market recovered a moderate fraction of the previous two day’s steeper losses. The C Fund rose 0.28%, and most other indexes joined in the recovery. The technical data was less than impressive, however. A moderate downturn in the price of crude oil (probably meaningless in the bigger perspective) seemed to bolster the spirits of the Bullish majority of investors somewhat. Although choppy intraday movements are keeping the majority off balance and confused, the bottom line is that most technical indicators have been more or less drifting sideways to lower over the past two weeks.
Despite this stall out, sentiment remains remarkably Bullish. The ISEE Sentiment Index, a call/put volume ratio, has been running about one to two standard deviations above the mean for the past week, indicating that speculators remain stubbornly Bullish. From a Contrary Opinion perspective, this is not good.
The F Fund (notes and bonds) reversed back to the downside again. These have turned choppy in recent weeks. Next Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee meets to decide how much money is going to cost. The consensus is expecting a quarter point increase, from 4% to 4.25% in the Fed Funds overnight borrowing rate. Technically speaking, the Fed Funds rate has increased steadily for 18 months, since June, 2004, rising from 1% to 4%. Technicians believe that a trend in motion tends to remain in motion until there is some tangible technical evidence of change. There is no sign of change at this time: the trend of interest rates is up and the trend of prices of fixed-income instruments is down.
NYSE volume fell to 1,870,070,000, versus 2,211,452,000 shares the previous day. Falling volume on rallies is an indication that the demand/supply balance for stocks may not be strong. Volume momentum indicators continue to lag price momentum indicators. Seasonal tendencies remain difficult: the 8 trading days 12/6 though 12/15 have been down on balance over the past 20 years, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2005.
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 12 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 12 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 12 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) No buy possible on 12 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
ajtj99,
TF is a closed-end mutual fund. Here's a link for info on it: http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundPages/global.asp?MFID=3880
salty24,
If the MACD and its signal line were below zero and the ADX was over 20 and trending up, I'd consider the indicator. I use all indicators as signals for trading opportunities but pull the trigger on price action. In other words, I don't blindly follow an indicator signal.
OT: To Learn How to Post Charts
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=107
I didn't have the gonads to keep the short based on QQQQ's inability to break down the last two days. Wanted to preserve a profit. Fear and greed are powerful motivators when you have a lot of eggs in one basket!
Perhaps a break of 41.20 might be needed to get the selling started? What do you think?
Oh well, still made $$ on the trade but my expectations were for $$$$...
See ya around the board...
OT: Raptor takes next step in supersonic JDAM capability
AFMCNS022 - December 9, 2005
By Christopher Ball
95th Air Base Wing Public Affairs
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. (AFMCNS) - The F/A-22 Raptor, traveling faster than the speed of sound, dropped a 1,000-pound guided Joint Directed Attack Munition over the Edwards range Dec. 1.
Since July, the Raptor program has performed seven JDAM supersonic separation test missions under a variety of conditions to prove the JDAM could safely separate from the aircraft. However, none of these tests used a JDAM guidance system.
"This was the first Raptor supersonic guided JDAM; the first one to guide to a target," said Maj. John Teichert, the 411th Flight Test Squadron's test pilot for the mission.
This release marks a dramatic increase in the F/A-22 air-to-ground capability by clearing the first phase of the JDAM supersonic envelope, he said.
"The supersonic envelope allows the Raptor to release precision air-to-ground weapons at long stand-off ranges while performing its Global Strike mission," Major Teichert said.
The supersonic JDAM capability allows the Raptor to deliver the weapon from a much greater distance than any other aircraft.
Dropping a JDAM wasn't part of the plan for the Raptor until fairly recently, Major Teichert said.
"Once the subsonic air-to-ground capability became available late last year, the warfighter immediately recognized the need for an expanded envelope to increase tactical options," Major Teichert said. "The test planning and data analysis to make the supersonic test work in a compressed amount of time was an outstanding feat."
Testers here plan to expand the supersonic JDAM envelope even more in the near future by dropping it from increasingly higher altitudes and greater speeds, and they plan to begin small-diameter bomb testing in 2006.
The F/A-22 Raptor has been under developmental test and evaluation at Edwards since 1998, and is scheduled to become fully operational at the end of December.
The 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base, Va., is home to the first three operational F/A- 22 Raptor squadrons
What's the board's opinion on EWJ--buy or sell? TIA
More info on EWJ from Mark Hulbert
The second development has been more dramatic: A big upsurge in the number of newsletters recommending Japanese stocks, and in particular the iShares exchange traded fund that focuses on that country's equities -- the iShares:Japan Fund (EWJ). Over just the last 30 days, in fact, no fewer than five newsletters have added EWJ to their model portfolios.
As a result, a total of 16 newsletters now recommend this exchange traded fund, one more than the total of those that are recommending PFE.
Why the sudden increase in EWJ's popularity? Each of the five newsletters recommending it over the last month are trend-following services, so in essence they like the fund because it has been performing so well.
How should you react to EWJ's new-found popularity? You might wonder if it's a bearish omen, on the contrarian grounds that the markets rarely accommodate the majority.
EWJ
Hello Swingman. Just shorted the Japan ETF as it appears overextended.
Chaikin MF and Oscillator plus volume have a negative divergence with price. My target is a move back to EWJ's 55-day SMA.
Hello salty24,
Covered my short today as QQQQ is not going down as anticipated. It bounced off its 21-day SMA two days in a row now and the RSI bounced off 50 as well. I'm going to sit in ca$h for a while until this shakes out for me.
BlissBull,
So what? He asked for my suggestion and he has it. I really don't care one way or another if it's in or out--just looked like extra baggage to me.
mr_cash4,
I'd take out the reference to Raging Bull. Been several months now that operations have moved here. Because of this, its reference adds little relavence to the purpose/operations of your excellent board.
Other materials are a-o-k...
The hurtle for the Colts will be the game(s) after they have home-field advantaged locked up...
cannabis,
My look at QQQQ's chart leads me to believe the ETF will correct down to 40.14 before a meaningful bounce. The key is the close on Friday. If Friday's close is less than 41.36, we are on the way...
Hi cannabis,
How low do you believe QQQQ will go before support?
TIA
QQQQ--Quick Poll--Over or Under 41.60 EOD
What a hugh potential inverse head and shoulders bottom!
Mr. Market is accomodating you the last two hours swing man!
TTT--8 Dec 05
Short-Term Correction Starting. The market appears to be confirming a short-term correction or pullback. Seasonal tendencies also confirm: the 8 trading days 12/6 though 12/15 have been down on balance over the past 20 years, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2005. On Wednesday, stock prices showed a little resilience for about 5 minutes after the open, but there was nothing behind it. Prices sagged lower for most of the day. Not even pullback in the price of crude oil could stimulate this tired market.
F Fund (notes and bonds) were also weak. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates again next week. Yields remain in a persistent major uptrend, which history suggests eventually hurts most stocks, as well as notes and bonds.
New Highs on the NYSE were 115 while New Lows were 82. Net New Highs (New Highs minus New Lows) on the NYSE were 33, down from 158 on Tuesday, and down from 199 on 12/1/05. This trend indicates loss of upside momentum.
NYSE volume rose slightly to 2,121,956,000, versus 2,110,740,000 shares the previous day. Rising volume on declines is an indication that the demand/supply balance for stocks is pointing toward lower prices. Volume momentum indicators continue to lag price momentum indicators. Still in the safety of G Fund...
Current Action Limits & Allocation Percentages:
F Fund (Long-term Treasury Bond Index) No buy possible on 8 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
C Fund (S&P 500 Index) No buy possible on 8 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
I Fund (EAFE Index) No buy possible on 8 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
S Fund (Wilshire 4500 Index) No buy possible on 8 Dec 05. Current portfolio allocation is nil.
G Fund (Money Market) Current portfolio allocation is 100%.
salty24,
Not an easy question to answer since each situation is unique. More often than not I like to keep it simple. If the security was trading under its 21-day SMA while the short was in force and closes above the 21-day SMA, then the intermediate-term trend has probably changed and best to cover. On the other hand, if one shorts while price is in the upper Bollinger Band, which is the case for QQQQ, I'll lighten up on the position with a touch and bounce off the 21-day SMA. In all cases, decisive volume also plays a role.
I have four general rules relative to volume:
1) If prices are up and volume are rising, the current market trend is strong (bullish--reflects new buyers)
2) If prices are down and volume are decling, the current market trend is strong (bullish--long positions being forced to liquidate; downtrend will end as all sellers sell their positions)
3) If prices are up and volum are declining, the current market is is weak (bearish--short sellers are covering positions, causing a rally, and money is leaving the marketplace)
4) If prices are down and volume are rising, the current market trend is weak (bearish--new money is entering market, shows agressive new short selling)
The above just touches the surface. A good read is John Murphy's book, The Visual Investor Suggest you check it out.
$WTIC SEASONAL LOW IN PLACE
http://321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye120705.html
I belive the 21-day SMA will provide support. $WTIC isn't overextended and it has good looking MACD patterns.