Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Trust me..I'm tempered. We should break that 3 month volume peak. And remember...I bought in September originally..and have adjusted accordingly.. :). Not always that perfectly though .. ;)
I disagree as much as I agree with you. This Company had a market share of "a tit" over 30% going onto 2014. What was it last year...7%? The Chalco debt was a burden on the Tavan players...and a burden with regards to the Country(state company debt)...as all other debt.
Market forecasts into 2020 suggest a stable price(woah..average is better suited) of USD140-150 per Metric Ton. As you can see currently..the market is apparently reacting to the IMF conclusion....as we have just gapped' up intra to 13% plus.
The upside to this play is the debt replay..et al....Mongolia.
My question to you.....who is the biggest Mongolian Miner in the nation...that is also listed on the HK exchange and has a ADR placed here(OTC). Not state owned..be it foreign...but Mongolian owned.
Only one.....so be it....irrational exuberance will come in handy on the back end of this one.
Remember when you mentioned how you were surprised(or similar) that the IMF deal didn't have the impact you thought it would.
Maybe it is now.....given this:
via Bloomberg....
Mongolia has fulfilled prerequisites from the International Monetary Fund to receive a $5.5-billion bailout and is expected to receive an initial tranche of cash at the end of this month
Or maybe....it's just real money getting it.
Yeah....I think it's just time. Look......we are not crazy...or irrational with regards to what is happening. Check out Bloomberg...Mongolia met the conditions for the IMF deal.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/mongolia-clears-hurdles-needed-for-5-5-billion-imf-led-bailout
As I said before...that CHALCO debt was a very big deal!
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3N1HK3RB
The increase was driven by a 446 percent surge in coal trade, which reached $541.3 million over the period
If you are looking to buy into something.....now is the time .... for it's breaking through two..and three is a charm!
....or pause and wait .. :)
Both work..
I would answer with..."what traders?". Not saying the volume was dynamic beginning of January.....but look at the drop off starting with mid-Jan.
And don't laugh at my chart.....wasn't trying to be fancy....ha!...just simple. The mentality of followers is just that...they follow. When no one is there to hold their hand..they move on and follow again. Those are the smallest of the small and are evident here. I am on a longer frequency...so it's not that bothersome to me.....but it is irritating as to "what is" versus "what is not". I don't think many small timers(as I am one) understand "what is". For example,when this company filed a Chapter 15(3/23)...someone actually sold down to .026(a small amount..but..). Apparently that follower did not have a clue what that filing meant.
On another note....any guess on how much revenue this Company made the first quarter? It's going to be hard to have to wait til the interim.
I am not expecting that....or maybe I should say that I didn't know that. I'll just stick at that 2013 price given the 140-150 range mentioned earlier(safe bet). If that price is as you mention ... yippee yi yo ki yay!
I believe that the Company is very straight forward...:
"His response to the Tavan Togloi questions also don't seem all that encouraging. Hopefully, he is just being cagey, although I suspect that the negotiations don't look all that promising right now. "
Answer..:
On 15 December 2016, the Consortium received an official letter from the working group established by the GoM, formed after the parliamentary election of Mongolia in June 2016, for the purpose of continuing negotiations in relation to the Tavan Tolgoi coalfield development. However, any final outcomes of this transaction remain highly uncertain given the complex nature of negotiations, involving multiple stakeholders and including the regulators.
With regards to this....:
but he isn't including the $195M perpetual note in his calculations? Why?
Given that it is "perpetual"...it is treated as equity instead of debt. I believe ..that is.
On another note..with regards to this:
"Last year, China imported 23 MT from Mongolia (according to MMC) and MMC had only 6% market share"
MMC is/was in provisional liquidation. Besides the crap coking coal price, there is no way they would even attempt to "make money".
I've been there personally....was about to do a ch 7 after one full year(plus) of moving money and not making money. One bank screwed up and showed a rough 100k in my name. So I went another route and stayed as small and quiet as possible for a few years after . And of course that beginning of hell was during 2008/2009. All good now because I followed the law..didn't screw over anyone.
I was honestly looking @ 6 million washed...so we are not that far off there...eh?
Ha!....23.6 to be precise. I am actually currently running over the numbers again tonight. Look at 2013....:
-15.4 imported by China..MMC's revenue of washed coking @ 392k annual
-Coking coal expected to be stable @ $140-150 mt through 2020
-average $147 mt during 2013
...from the man...:
- Is it possible get the Ukhaa Khudag enrichment plant running at full capacity this year?
- We have been trying to conduct operations without any interruptions. Even though production and exports have declined due to conditions in the market, we will get the factory to run at full capacity this year. We are aiming to reap the benefits our investments now, so we will focus on restoring and accelerating activities in 2017.
ref: http://linkis.com/mongolianeconomy.mn/fmMbP
I hear ya!....
Coking coal demand to rise 41.13 Mt in countries covered by the Belt and Road Initiative
extracted: That would translate into a demand of 558.93 million tonnes of washed coking coal, compared to 517.8 million tonnes in 2016, according to Chang, noting there would be shortfall of 12.28 million tonnes which needs to be replenished by imports.
...and .. Coking coal production in Mongolia is expected to grow and more such supply may flow to China, Chang added.
ref: http://zrqej.sxcoal.com/news/4554469/info/en
Well.that didn't take long to find...I bookmarked it:
http://theubpost.mn/2016/10/01/coal-prices-and-real-costs/
I believe so.....was reading an art' regarding such...will try to find it. The other main reason was the debt to CHALCO via ETT.
Just more food for thought. How timely was that pay down to CHALCO given that it coincided with this cyclone. If this disruption can last for one Month..at the very least....well.....YaY.
Almost forgot....what a great time to have those stock piles on the border so heavily reduced.
! ..let's talk about the current elephant in the room..eh?:
Coking coal surges as cyclone hits key supply route
Steelmaking commodity jumps 40% after Australian mining area struck
https://www.ft.com/content/61532c74-1ad9-11e7-a266-12672483791a
This isn't brand new given the pricing jump day before yesterday(hk time).....but "the Press" is starting it's "press" for exploitation of such! We may get lucky and get a full sail going into the restructuring closure.....wow...if such.
Oh..almost forgot. CP politely called me out and I apologize for not answering your question about washing et al...I did answer that in my response to CP...you can read some extracts there..but here is the main link:
http://cornerstonemag.net/assessing-water-issues-in-chinas-coal-industry/
Exactly.......I do not play bankruptcies....and have never seen anything like this before...be it 10% dilution upon restructure. Very good solid points and dead on!
p.s....I am a September child here :)...so I'm ok..eh?
well....with regards to this:
"The question was put to you why couldn't the coal get washed in China which you didn't answer aside from stating that this is the only material capacity wash plant in Mongolia"
What do you do more often..........buy sliced bread.......or slice your own? I am just attempting to keep it simple....that is all. The risk here has been dramatically reduced.
With regards to washing coal.......look here:
Coal reserves are mainly located in north China, while water resources are abundant in the south but scarce in the north. Considering these issues, water scarcity could become a constraining factor for the future development of the coal industry in China’s coal-rich regions.
further.....:
Although wet preparation methods are mature and highly effective, water-related issues are one of the key technical barriers to increasing the coal-washing rate in China. The actual water loss during the preparation process is unacceptable in extremely arid regions, such as northwest China. In addition, China’s abundant young coal readily degrades in water, and is thus not suitable for wet processing. Also, the product of the wet washing process has an external water content of over 12%, which can result in freezing when transported under severely cold conditions.
.and the nut is here:
Scenario Analysis: Water Use in the Coal Supply Chain in 2020 and 2030
In November 2010, the State Council of China released a response to the Comprehensive Plan for National Water Resources (here after referred to simply as the “Water Plan”), which set water use targets for industrial use in China of 127 billion m3 and 120 billion m3 in 2020 and 2030, respectively. According to the Water Plan, any water-intensive industry should not increase its percentage of total industrial water use; this is especially true for applications such as coal-fired power plants that have significant potential for water savings.
ref: http://cornerstonemag.net/assessing-water-issues-in-chinas-coal-industry/
Now with regards to risk...........that "going to zero" was at hand before the Court rejected BNP last summer. But I do see your pessimism(slight that be)...as a possible tell as to why the current share price is where it is at.......and that gets me excited.
Based on the progress of the negotiations with the Creditors, and considering the commercial basis of this restructuring, the Directors have no reason to believe that the Debt Restructuring will not be achieved.
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-03-22_e_00975ann-20170322.pdf
If that little bit of constructive pessimism that you have resides in many here and abroad.....that could be a big deal in a few weeks.
Where is that case being made? Please show me.....for if I am missing something.....damn...eh?
There are two washing/enrichment facilities in Mongolia. The newest(circa 2015?) can process 600,000 tons annually. MMC can process 15 MILLION metric tons annually.
Look here:
"Exports of washed coking coal increased 31.55% from a month earlier to 0.43 million tonnes in February, while that of raw coking coal dropped 24.28% from January to 0.83 million tonnes. "
https://www.news.mn/content/print/329094
With its Coal handling and preparation plant (“CHPP”) in operation at UHG since June 2011, MMC is the first washed coal producer of the country. The new plant, the first of its kind in Mongolia and set to be one of the largest coking coal processing plants in the world, enables the Company to boost its potential to compete in the world market by producing value-added coal products. While specifically designed to maximize the coking coal product yield, the CHPP is a customized solution for continuous production and reliable use in the remote and environmentally challenging Gobi region.
The first and second modules of the CHPP commenced commercial operations in June 2011 and February 2012, respectively. MMC’s total name plate ROM coal processing capacity reached 15 Mtpa by the successful commissioning of the plant’s third module in June 2013.
http://www.mmc.mn/projects-coal.html
Not sure why you think this...but it may give some insight to how others may feel.......hence..the share price..so yet..once again:
http://www.mongolianmining.ky/downloads/Consent-Order-20-March-2017-sealed.pdf
-hong kong court date/caymn court date to solidify scheme.
-sign the papers...or right after....new york
-may court date new york(which is just merely protocol)
hmmm?...word on the streets?:
"but the current word on the street is that the GOM is being greedy and pushing Shenhua for the best possible terms. Not exactly the way to handle a negotiation where your back is up against the wall, right? At this point, a deal is not likely to happen until the summer, at the earliest."
Have you seen the proposals from the working group...or should I say ....what have you heard?
want to hear such before I reply....except for this....
..how many coal washing plants are in Mongolia...and what size are they :)
Yes..but understand this with regards to...:
"If the equity holders come out intact then the insiders will have some incentive to make things operate better. In the current state I am not so sure. Honestly any quasi state run business does terrible IMO opposed to the alternative and there are a lot of politics in play here."
The insiders are the equity holders. It is all common/ordinary shares. The matter at hand just needs to be signed.... http://www.mongolianmining.ky/downloads/Consent-Order-20-March-2017-sealed.pdf .... the politics in play favor the current much more so than the previous. Good point and what is needed in the understanding of such is that.........this is it.....if Mongolia can not get a grip in this current climate.......then...well.......see ya.
That is what makes it so attractive in a speculative manner.
Welcome Ponch!....first.....let's talk about CHALCO.
Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi announces complete repayment of debt to CHALCO
http://www.mongolianbusinessdatabase.com/base/newsdetials?id=8412
The debt to CHALCO killed the pricing for coal given the steep discount. This same debt was a nail in the coffin for the previous Tavan Tolgoi deal. That has now been eliminated.
Rail is the most important thing with regards to cost...and that will happen. This company does what it says..and is very tight lipped when it comes to talking about the consortium talks(as it was before..mandated via Parliament)...and will downplay everything. I am somewhat surprised at the current share price....and think it should be at the very least double the current ... but when I look at the chart(volume on decline)...and apply those that have added to long positions(one...ie...Mongolia Growth Group Ltd.(which is another company to look at))...it becomes moot.
Parliament resumes April 5th ,,I believe....so let's see how they approach the big elephant in the room. There are a couple of court dates...mid April and late April/May...before May 8th deadline......and all looks good for the sign off restructuring..be it... closure. Remember...this is the most important public stock company in Mongolia given the Hong Kong IPO/listing and status.
Keep it simple when looking at the numbers...and focus on other in my opinion
Well said...and no doubt about it. Closure by may 8th ...I believe....with 10% dilution to existing. I have never seen anything that as ever resembled such given that.... and the reduction of debt. Quite amazing.....!
I need to talk about the Chalco debt being finished off this Month. It is very important even though it is not this Company's debt...... very important!
So close...and the Chapter 15 filing to bind the creditors to the restructuring terms abroad shows just how close it is!
Page 12 of 60..... this pdf file:
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-03-22_e_00975ann-20170322.pdf
4...revenue:
Trading of coal procured from Chinese third party sources(thousands)
*(nil)-2016
*$23,890- 2015
......I didn't follow(begin with) the math you put forth and instead ...went right to here. Is this where the confusion is?
They sold a rough 300,000 "more" tons at an average of USD77.2 which equates to a rough USD23 million.
1.5 mnt vs 1.2 mnt
USD77.2 vs USD63.2
On another note...some poor soul threw away a $1000 @ .026 ..apparently...not understanding what the Chapter 15 filing(just filed) meant. I am going to put up a brief on what is going down today/tonight/tomorrow.....because we are a rough 30-45 days away from complete closure. The 15 filing was right on time...
key notes...CHALCO debt via Erdenes/Tavan...current selling coal price @Tavan...... etc.
Annual out.....revenues increased by $20 million:
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-03-22_e_00975ann-20170322.pdf
here's a bit..and upon review...........it's a big deal!!!!.:
China imported 22.4 million tonnes of anthracitic coal that can be used as an alternative to coking coal in the steelmaking process from North Korea, a nearly 15% rise from 2015.
.... and
Mongolia accounted for 23.6 million tonnes of total imports; a 85% jump which is creating a logistical nightmare for the landlocked country.
..... and
Australia is the number one supplier to China, which exported 26.8 million tonnes last year, a 4.8% increase year on year.
http://www.mining.com/north-korea-lights-fire-under-coking-coal-price/
That Chalco "cheap" coal deal ends in a couple of months so expect boom time in my opinion .... http://en.montsame.mn/mining/8407
We have the only washing plant available...already there at Tavan.....just need that rail way.....and most importantly...the Tavan Tolgoi deal to be announced(which will include the railway)!
Thank you North Korea...:)
UPDATE 2-Mongolia bonds rally as $5.5 bln bailout rewards tenacious investors
February 20, 2017, 09:31:00 AM EDT By Reuters
"I have been long Mongolia for a long time - this is very
good," said Shahzad Hasan, a portfolio manager for emerging
markets fixed income at Allianz Global Investors.
"This will invite foreign investment in the country,
especially in the mining sector, and it will improve confidence
of foreign investors in Mongolia, so it is all very positive and
very constructive."
Washing plant has been busy....:
Ganqimaodu Jan coal imports soar 185pct on yr
2017-02-10 09:35:00
Ganqimaodu border crossing in northern China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region imported 1.45 million tonnes of coal from neighboring Mongolia in January, soaring 185.04% year on year, said the local media.
Coal sales at the border crossing stood at 1.28 million tonnes in January, increasing 45.03% year on year.
The coal stockpiles at the border crossing were 1.29 million tonnes by end-January, a year-on-year decrease of 47.33%.
With Mongolian washed coking coal traded at the border crossing has been stable at some 1,000 yuan/t since January, as much as 37 enterprises were engaged in coal import business at the border crossing.
Ganqimaodu borders resourceful Mongolia, whose Tavan Tolgoi coal mine has coal reserves of 6.4 billion tonnes, with primary coking coal at 1.8 billion tonnes and thermal coal at 4.6 million tonnes. The border crossing has been an important hub of coal trades between the two countries since its opening in 2009.
ref: http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4552143/info/en
CEO of Energy Resources delves into debt restructuring and the coal market
http://theubpost.mn/2017/01/26/ceo-of-energy-resources-delves-into-debt-restructuring-and-the-coal-market/
Well...start with today's news:
http://iis.aastocks.com/20170119/002710092-0.PDF
Pursuant to the terms of the Lenders RSA, if, by 4:00 p.m. (New York time) on 20 January 2017 (or such later date as may be agreed), the Noteholders who had entered into or acceded to the Noteholder RSA do not hold supporting Notes (the “
Supporting Notes”) constituting an aggregate of 50% or more of the principal amount of the Notes, the Lenders RSA may be terminated with respect to a Lender’s obligations thereunder by such Lender.
After reconciling and verifying the holding positions of the Noteholders who have acceded to the Noteholder RSA on or before 13 January 2017, the Company is pleased to announce that, holders of Supporting Notes which in aggregate constitute approximately 94.1% of the principal amount of the Notes have entered into the Noteholder RSA on or before 13 January 2017.
So...now the RSA is confirmed! I wouldn't call this a catalyst as much as a major closure though. But others may....we'll see tonight.
The major catalyst will be Tavan Tolgoi. I think many are still thinking the past may come back to haunt them and it will fall through (for the third time). The sideways pattern has had ups and downs which is just trading. I think that it has been somewhat frustrating ...but...that's how it goes
Sorry for not getting back sooner........new laptop.....and had to create a new login.
Yes...but all shares owned and to be issued(to note holders and lenders) are ordinary shares. There are no preffered.