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Ha!...glass half empty huh? .... "I wish I had never learned about this stupid investment opportunity."
I wasn't asking you to be optimistic..or at least...that was not the goal. Here's what went bust before.....and they were just about to sign....ha!
http://www.parliament.mn/medias/c5fe2898-01b4-4ffb-ae1c-e2b2398090c3.pdf
Oh...come on...that's what you got from that?...here's a great piece that's 2 and a tick years old:
http://en.mongolianminingjournal.com/content/58189.shtml
Here's a great read that shares much more light on MMC's debt restructuring:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/analysis-mongolia-scores-corporate-workout-first-20170504-02336
I am going to get screwed on my upcoming play!....this better not be a revisit of mid December......or I am going to be pissed.
I need it to drop further to maximize utility.
Ha!..... strange isn't it. And tonight is Friday ... still planning to poss' add on Monday....want to today......but as you say..ha!
Have you seen the news? ... http://www.mmc.mn/announcements.php
Well.....it's the only "free market" in the world. Or at least it was some time back. I apologize..........point taken.
?/ what?...:
What's the news in HK that you're referring to -- the crackdown of 9 democracy protesters after the election of a pro-Beijing mayor? Just a coincidence, right? Maybe not.
Is that supposed to be a joke? Are you just fn' with me......?
It did get a bounce on the announcement that Mongolia had met all conditions....I mentioned it then,...it came when the news hit. The delay is minor.......but I do like to see the slight improvement on volume.
Yep!.... you did get the recent news on the IMF bailout...right? Not sure if this has anything to do with current nonsense in Hong Kong...compounded by a non-work week(essentially).
The news of such times out with the current action.
If such is true.......why are people so stupid in their trading(not investing)
I'm buying on Monday(OTC)....maybe :)
Given that this entire week is non existent given the broken up Holiday.............?
When will they sign those papers for the restructure...?eh
Quarterly benchmark...ie....q1 to previous q1. So 2016 would be first quarter 2016 to first quarter 2017.
You have all the tools to figure out their price. I take 40% off the current price/average...which gives me a low number. The actual discounts are as follows:
2016...36% discount off average price of $120 and change
2015...30% discount off average price of $90
2014...30% discount off average price of $116 and change
2013...34% discount off average price of $147 and change
Those are facts supported by actual numbers provided by their own filings et al.
MMC's pricing is where it has always been. Compare to other co's based in Mongolia.
With regards to other..:
1. Missed Q1 guidance of 900k-1M tons because of time spread between Lunar New Year celebrations.
I should have taken that into consideration....but my numbers are always lower.....so if I had of.....it wouls have been extremely low..ha!
2. May is looking like 400-450k tons, so Q2 might come in at 1.3MT and Q3 might come in a little higher. You and I know both know that this means they'll probably do around 0.9-1MT in both of those quarters. I'd personally expect mid-to-high 3's in sales volume for 2017.
You left out April......and this is where I want to bring this up from what I read the other day...http://in.reuters.com/article/column-russell-china-idINL4N1I51II
COLUMN-China's coal imports take temporary hit from Australian cyclone: Russell
Major coking coal exporters also appeared slow to respond to the loss of Australian shipments, with the vessel-tracking data showing Canada boosted exports to China by 17.6 percent in April from March to 1.27 million tonnes.
What the data doesn't show is coal arriving in China via rail and truck from neighbouring Mongolia, another major source of imported coking coal.
Chinese customs figures for April will be available around the third week of May, but in the first quarter imports from Mongolia jumped 113.5 percent from the same period in 2016 to 8.14 million tonnes, which actually made the landlocked country the second-biggest supplier behind Australia and put it ahead of Indonesia in the first three months of 2017
POSCO says Q1 profit doubled, but braces for coking coal cost hit from Cyclone Debbie
The world's fourth-largest steelmaker said on Tuesday it has
suspended negotiations on contract benchmark prices for coking
coal - a vital raw ingredient in steelmaking - due to a hike in
spot prices since the end-March cyclone lashed Queensland, the
world's largest coking coal export region.
But the firm said it now expects contract benchmark prices
for coking coal to reach more than $200 a tonne in the second
quarter. Before Cyclone Debbie hit, POSCO had forecast contract
benchmark prices would be about $150-170 a tonne for April-June.
Well.........:
5. To be fair, of those four customers listed, only one was located in Inner Mongolia (Baotou) whereas the other three were located in Tangshan (on the eastern coast). His bigger point was that, by virtue of having to sell through middlemen all the way from the Mongolian border through Inner Mongolia to Tangshan, MMC is forced to accept a more discounted price. He thought in a more normalized pricing environment (e.g., no supply disruptions in Australian coal country), MMC would have trouble generating much of a gross margin on their sales. In other words, he didn't think they could price their coal much higher than their fully-loaded cost per ton of $60.
All goes through Inner Mongolia. I just posted the most current price paid there(900). Further..how does MMC have more of a disadvantage than other mining co's there(Mongolia)? And finally......you have their average selling price vs cost currently. So?...."In other words, he didn't think they could price their coal much higher than their fully-loaded cost per ton of $60." .... um...you have/had the numbers reported.....so not following these "fully loaded" costs...what are those?
Well.........
So here we go:
3. He has no idea when a TT deal would get done, but indicated that "not in our lifetimes" would be the odds-favorite.
That is horse sht'...but I get the sentiment. Not going to even attempt to argue the sentiment...but what is important is "talk" of such railway.
4. Even though MPP has control of Parliament, it is not a united group. Furthermore, there were plenty of Russian-loyalist MP's who would do everything in their power to block a TT deal involving China.
The MPP is the oldest party...so yeah. But that just isn't the case. If such was the case...where is the bid from a Russian Corporation........as such.....MMC will..or would be involved no matter what.
5. He thought MMC was uninvestable until a railroad got built -- which, again, he thought would be never -- because the target customer for MMC's HCC is located near China's coast, as opposed to the"death by a thousand paper cuts" of getting your product through countless shady middlemen in Inner Mongolia on its way to northeastern China.
????.yeah.I get the railroad...and agree for the most pasrt..but what the hell is this...and explain me me how he derives his spit on such:?
The group’s existing customers mostly comprise
of steel mills and coke plants located in inner
mongolia and hebei areas, including Baotou
iron and steel Co. ltd, Jianlong Janeboat steel
Co., ltd, Qiananshi Jiujiang Wire Co., ltd and
tangshan dafeng Coking Co., ltd.
I do not think he knows as much as he thinks he does. To be honest with you.......I am about to rip it to shreds(for the most part).
Let me be specific:
1. OJ is in personal bankruptcy (his levered bet to Mongolian residential and commercial real estate backfired, and was compounded by DP party retribution after 2012), and he has pledged his MCS stake in MMC as collateral.
Any pledge of shares...whether a loan provided to MCS or any other situation...et al....that is pledged in shares of MMC must be disclosed. It is disclosed via a short position.
2. My contact was very skeptical of our having any kind of investment edge in this case. He said that long-time Mongolian coal industry insiders who are close to the story don't even have the visibility to handicap the odds.
??......that is just plain nonsense! He is sounding like an idiot given the obvious "visibility".
Then have you checked the "disclosure of interests"..recently?
http://sdinotice.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm3A.aspx?fn=198266&sa2=an&sid=50000562&corpn=Mongolian+Mining+Corporation&sd=07%2f10%2f2016&ed=19%2f12%2f2016&sa1=cl&scsd=02%2f05%2f2016&sced=02%2f05%2f2017&sc=975&src=MAIN&lang=EN&
?....before I answer anything....and believe me.....I will.
Are your referring to Od ... or Odjargal.
That's due to the Holiday schedule coming up. Probably see extremely light volume on Monday night.
Weird stretch being closed Sunday night(eastern time)...open Monday night....then closed Tuesday night...yet again.
! "With Mongolian washed coking coal traded at the border crossing dropping three times to 900 yuan/t since February, as much as 32 enterprises were engaged in coal import business at the border crossing."
That's @USD130.00
ref: http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4555294/info/en
I'm on fire with my numbers...:
". in line with the coking coal market rebound in the second half
of 2016, the group’s asP for hCC reached
Usd92.8 per tonne in the second half of
2016, compared to Usd52.2 per tonne in the
first half of 2016, representing an increase of
77.8%"
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-04-27_e101.pdf
That's part of it. Listen..in harsh winter climates(cold!)....it's not that the ground is hard......it's that equipment. Steel is very brittle....so when it is extremely cold........you do not want to run machinery...or at the least......very little.
I am not talking cold..but bitter cold. For example.....Australia does not know what that means...as in...cold.
They do know what cyclones are though...;)
No..keep it simple...you get half the product after ROM is washed......the guidance is conservative. It was winter!
"Perhaps the CFO was giving my contact ROM guidance, as opposed to washed HCC sales volume guidance?"
ROM coal processed was 1,547.8 in the first quarter. If they were ramping up to 400k late march..well.........that is finished product!... :)
400k per month equates to a remaining 3600000
3.6 plus 800k equates to 4.4 million
It's a perfect number!....go back to the CFO telling your acquaintance that the Company was ramping up to around 400k Mt late march. This is incredible news on many fronts!
I have no doubt we will have to be wait until September to see the numbers!.........we will see them @ the end of July!
For my own sake.......my math is working........so............bam!
!!There you go friend!....now they are letting us know quarterly....looks like my first assumptin and my second assumption were pretty damn close!....right in the middle!...:
798.1 HCC sold! ... first quarter
http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-04-26_e_00975ann-20170427.pdf
Some poor soul dumped too much today!!!!! ha!
I looked @ MEC.....passed..but is on radar. Betting on Mongolia as a whole is my play.
Woah!....for South Gobi only.....jeesh..sorry.
"Further!..raw coal exports have been suspended by China....unknown time span. "
I believe it was just "safety" related...so should be short term..very short.
Scratch South Gobi.....not commenced yet....just trials.
Just found 232k of clean coal sold/exported in 2016(200k in the first half of 2016) ..MEC...it was dry washed....and shipped.....to be processed further!.
Khushuut Coal Mine!
http://www.mongolia-energy.com/website/MEC/cms/upload/report/pdf_en/2016Interim_e.pdf
Further!..raw coal exports have been suspended by China....unknown time span.
I suggest South Gobi etc...as well
And there you have it :)...a part of that is!
Yes....also.."What is the basis for assigning them a $97 ASP? What is a CHPP? And wasn't MCC's 2013 washed coking coal 4.3MT rather than 5.3MT?"
I have too many notes...here it is:
Coal Processing
During 2013, the Group processed a total of 10.7 Mt of ROM coal, including 0.1 Mt of feed under contract washing
arrangement for third parties. This was achieved utilising only two of the now three available CHPP modules, and
represented an increase of 44.5% year-on-year.
The Group’s total washed product derived from this feed included 5.3 Mt of coking coal, up 36.1% year-on-year,
and 2.3 Mt of thermal coal, up 39.6% year-on-year. Historical semiannual production is shown in Figure 8.
Despite the challenging market condition, the Group was able to increase sales volume of its primary product,
washed HCC, to 4.3 Mt representing about 26.5% year-on-year growth, while keeping total volume of coal sales at
5.7 Mt in 2013, including 1.3 Mt of middlings
Well..I think I just figured it out regarding those washed HCC numbers. I am basing it on MMC's lack of production/export against others ramped' up production/export. Maybe the "other" was much smaller CHPP's that were at maxed cap. Maybe MMC is running closer to 80% plus for that first quarter at 916 thousand plus
If such....minimal would be a rough 88 million @ASP of $97(one example) first quarter.
I have too many numbers relating to..."too".....many things on several plus pages of legal. Just caught a note were 2013 was 5.3 Mt washed exported. Ha!
I still can only find two "real" wash plants currently...and one is more domestic.
With regards to such stated:
"1. Lingering stock price weakness may be the result of the street not liking the reported FY 2016 numbers. According to him, MMC didn't start producing until summer 2016, which led to the sloppy FY16 results."
Then the street is very ignorant. They exported half a million during the last six months of 2015...and mirrored that in the first half of 2016(600 th). There was no market at all...not to mention open discussions started in Jan 2016 leading to the provisional liq during the summer.
"2. He thought 2017 guidance was excellent and conservative: volumes of 4.5MT, costs of $60/ton, current prices at $120 = ~$270M in EBITDA."
Again...that completely mirrors my cheat sheet...2013 annual with regards to export(4.3mt in 2013). The CEO suggested around 50...so that makes sense.
"3. He's spoken to the CFO who has indicated that MMC would be near 100% capacity (7.5 MT) in 2018. CFO also indicated that volumes in late March seemed to be running more like 400k/month, so he thinks they hit closer to 5MT in '17."
That is my frustration...because I can not my head around those HCC washed exports.
"4. Earliest timing for ETT deal is summer/early fall. His line: "It's Mongolia, they're habitually late with everything.""
To me ..that seems overly optimistic/aggressive. My timeline, as such, is Spring of 2018 at the "earliest". In the meantime....welcome all noise/news of such(if positive).
"5. Border is being changed from bilateral (8 hrs/day) to international (24 hrs/day), so big bottleneck opening, which will help with cash conversion."
I did not know that...will research such...good news.
I am going to reply to most of those points....but first I need to mention my "cheat sheet" guidance. I refer back to the 2013 annual(MMC)...and average price of $147Mt for that year.
I also discount a rough 40% to any current bench price/average to get MMC's selling point on HCC.
I have one issue though....the washing of coking coal related to exports of washed HCC. It's not adding up...and I am getting very frustrated.
Now ...I am going to have a few drinks..etc...and hopefully reply to those numbered points individually......a little later.
Well......I didn't own it til September...so I'm new :)
More importantly.....I have a loose figure of 710,000 Metric tons exported out of the total of 1,145,672 exported by Mongolia of washed HCC in the first quarter. I am not sure who else is washing besides one other player....or if MMC is washing others.
Based on a rough 1.46 million exported out last half of 2016 by Mongolia compared to MMC's export sales of 900,000(rough 62%).
What's your ASP opinion?..... and am I too low...etc? Am I missing anything...because I am banking on USD75mill for first quarter minimal.
Either way...if all remains fairly static to the upswing in capacity......that interim will blow away those not paying attention....or simply unaware.
I'm going back and clean up the numbers over the weekend....but anything you see..let me know. I had to search/research the hard way...and my eyes are bleeding currently
You did misunderstand....I am talking about something completely different...more on the investment side of the equation. Not Governmental.
I totally get it here:
"I'm just dismayed that what I considered to be positive catalysts (IMF bailout, restructuring completed, coal prices recovering) have not only not led to favorable price action, but have also not tempered stock price weakness. It has forced me to second guess and re-examine my investment thesis. "
That's how it goes apparently.
I forgot about this....:
"Is it outside the realm of possibility that HK traders are simply reacting to the 9% move up in the OTC listing earlier today"
If the HK scene went wild over $1000 spent today on the OTC....then I am getting the hell out of this tomorrow.
...I am on a four year plan(3 year, 4 month currently). My frequency may be different than yours.