Corpstrat:
Being one of those Dendreonites who discussed this matter (valuations) with you on Provenge, I agree with you that crunching the numbers is a good exercise.
Like you, I have difficulty putting a dollar value on Proellex, because Proellex is a novel treatment. One possible starting point would be Lupron treatments (are these off-patent?). Regardless, if trials are successful, share price will be at some multiple of today's price.
The diversity of diseases treated must be taken into account when estimating the number of potential patients, but, I think the reimbursement strategy should establish a per dose or per pill or per treatment regimen charge, in order to get insurance approvals. Unless the formulation (e.g., long-acting vs. short-acting) or delivery (oral vs. IV) changes, I don't think they will be able to charge a different price for the same basic formulation.
Curious if anyone has asked mgt about a pricing strategy, if successful?