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Thanks, rab and Gleno. Two
Thanks, rab. What is LG's board address, please. Think AJ will ever take back his old board? Or has Jerry Olson done that...and turned it into a "premium" site? Two
A question re. AJ's site: I tried posting there and was told that I could only do so if I had a "premium membership"? When did this happen and where has AJ landed? TIA. Two
Hi, Foot, this should interest you. Good article about false bottoms in the real estate industry. Two
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/2009/06/04/6-5-beware-real-estate-
false-bottoms/
OT: There's an enormous amount of ambiguity in trading. But not as much ambiguity as there is in the English language. Two
======================
1. ONE TEQUILA, TWO TEQUILA, THREE TEQUILA, FLOOR......
3. ATHEISM IS A NON-'PROPHET' ORGANIZATION.
4. IF MAN EVOLVED FROM MONKEYS AND APES, WHY DO WE STILL HAVE
MONKEYS AND APES?
5. THE MAIN REASON THAT SANTA IS SO JOLLY IS BECAUSE HE KNOWS WHERE
ALL THE BAD GIRLS LIVE.
6. I WENT TO A BOOKSTORE AND ASKED THE SALESWOMAN, 'WHERE'S THE
SELF-HELP SECTION?' SHE SAID IF SHE TOLD ME, IT WOULD DEFEAT THE PURPOSE.
7. WHAT IF THERE WERE NO HYPOTHETICAL QUESTIONS?
8. IF A DEAF PERSON SIGNS SWEAR WORDS, DOES HIS MOTHER WASH HIS
HANDS WITH SOAP?
9. IF SOMEONE WITH MULTIPLE PERSONALITIES THREATENS TO KILL HIMSELF,
IS IT CONSIDERED A HOSTAGE SITUATION?
10. IS THERE ANOTHER WORD FOR 'SYNONYM'?
11. WHERE DO FOREST RANGERS GO TO 'GET AWAY FROM IT ALL?'
12. WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN YOU SEE AN ENDANGERED ANIMAL EATING AN
ENDANGERED PLANT?
13. IF A PARSLEY FARMER IS SUED, CAN THEY GARNISH HIS WAGES?
14. WOULD A FLY WITHOUT WINGS BE CALLE D A WALK?
15. WHY DO THEY LOCK GAS STATION BATHROOMS? ARE THEY AFRAID
SOMEONE WILL CLEAN THEM?
16. If A TURTLE DOESN'T HAVE A SHELL, IS HE HOMELESS OR NAKED?
17. CAN VEGETARIANS EAT ANIMAL CRACKERS?
18. IF THE POLICE ARREST A MIME, DO THEY TELL HIM HE HAS THE RIGHT
TO REMAIN SILENT?
21. WHAT WAS THE BEST THING BEFORE SLICED BREAD?
22. ONE NICE THING ABOUT EGOTISTS: THEY DON'T TALK ABOUT OTHER
PEOPLE.
24. HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO HAVE A CIVIL WAR?
25. IF ONE SYNCHRONIZED SWIMMER DROWNS, DO THE REST DROWN TOO?
26. IF YOU ATE BOTH PASTA AND ANTIPASTO, WOULD YOU STILL BE HUNGRY?
27. IF YOU TRY TO FAIL, AND SUCCEED, WHICH HAVE YOU DONE?
28. WHOSE CRUEL IDEA WAS IT FOR THE WORD 'LISP' TO HAVE AN 'S' IN
IT?
29. WHY ARE HEMORRHOIDS CALLED 'HEMORRHOIDS' INSTEAD OF
A 0 'ASSTEROIDS'?
30. WHY IS IT CALLED TOURIST SEASON IF WE CAN'T SHOOT AT THEM?
31. WHY IS THERE AN EXPIRATION DATE ON 'SOUR' CREAM?
32. IF YOU SPIN AN ORIENTAL PERSON IN A CIRCLE THREE TIMES DO THEY
BECOME DISORIENTED?
33. CAN AN ATHEIST GET INSURANCE AGAINST ACTS OF GOD?
Hi, rab. Denninger is right on target, as usual. Perhaps, instead of "Bullgasm," he should have called it "Bullgas"? Two
They've pushed this "string" about as far as it will go without some sort of pullback, haven't they? Seems to me I've been reading that you've been building some short positions (lol)? Two
Hi, Beer. Looks like they'll first take it back up to test the early HOD? Then the real drop commences? This is a tough one to figure...so far. Two
They came right in buying with both fists at 10:15. But my 5-min charts displayed a weak signal when it happened. I'm thinking this drop and pop might fail. Two
Yeah, and somehow the "right" e-wave line carried the day and told everyone what to do (as well as what had happened). LOL. Two
I have to wait until tonight to find out, unfortunately. Sorry. Two
Rab, I'm not an EWT person, either. But I like to read about this stuff, especially if/when it supports my notions of what the market is going to do (lol). Two
Hi, rab. Here's what my guru is thinking. Two
============
It is possible wave (2) down in the Industrials and S&P 500 has another leg lower to go, wave c down. If so, Thursday's rally is finishing the middle wave of an a-down, b-up, c-down for (2) down, all shown on the charts on page 6 in the above report. The 15 and 30 minute Full Stochastics suggest this rally is petering out and a drop could occur either this afternoon or Friday to complete (2) down.
Gleno...fyi...from www.sweetness-light.com. Two
===================
The Costs Of Obama’s Weekend Trip(s)
We are usually pretty tolerant of expenditures by any President to travel like a world leader — but why is there such little talk about Mr. Obama having his Valentines date in Chicago?
U.S. President Barack Obama waves as he boards Air Force One in Washington enroute to Chicago to spend the President’s Day holiday weekend with his family at their home there February 13, 2009.
After knocking the CEO’s for their private jets and their taxpayer paid Las Vegas trip plans, and saying "the party is over" — Mr. Obama went to Illinois on Thursday.
Fair enough. But he was back at the White House that night, to argue for the stimulus package.
He then left again on Friday to go to back to Illinois. And he will presumably return to Washington on Tuesday, after the long weekend.
We won’t even get into the irreversible damage that the expended carbon from so much to-ing and fro-ing will do to Mother Earth.
We just wonder how much it is costing you and me, the US taxpayer.
Luckily that guardian of the US Treasury, Henry Waxman, did ask for a study on the costs of Presidential travel back in March of 2006.
(He was trying to get President Bush to reimburse the government for using AF1 for campaigning.)
Here are some excerpts from that Congressional Report (a pdf file):
THE COST OF PRESIDENTIAL AND VICE PRESIDENTIAL POLITICAL TRAVEL
UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM — MINORITY STAFF
SPECIAL INVESTIGATIONS DIVISION
MARCH 2006
PREPARED FOR REP. HENRY A. WAXMAN
… This report assumes that flight operating costs are $56,518 per hour for Air Force One . These figures are based on the per-hour cost figures cited by GAO for fiscal year 2000, adjusted for inflation.
According to the Congressional Research Service, the President’s domestic travel also involves the use of accompanying cargo planes.
This report assumes one cargo plane accompanies the President on each trip at an operating cost per hour of $6,960. This figure is based on the per-hour cost cited by GAO for fiscal year 2000 for the C-17 cargo plane, adjusted for inflation…
The President flies on a VC-25. General Accounting Office, Presidential Travel: DOD Airlift Cost for White House Foreign Travel, Appendix I, at 10-11 (Aug. 2000) (GAO/NSIAD-00-209).
The VC-25 plane has a speed of 630 miles per hour. Air Force, Fact Sheet on VC-25 – Air Force One (online at http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=131)…
According to the Air Force, the C-17 flies at 450 knots, which converts to 518 miles per hour. Air Force, Fact Sheet on C-17 (online at: http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.aspfsID=86)…
The flight time for presidential travel to campaign-related events was calculated by dividing the total miles traveled by the President by the cruising speed of Air Force I.
Distances were determined using two Internet-based distance calculators:
http://www.indo.com/cgi-bin/dist and http://www.mapcrow.info/.
According to the first distance calculator above, it is 598 miles (962 km) (519 nautical miles) from Washington, DC to Chicago, Illinois.
Mr. Obama’s two trips back and forth from DC to Chicago add up to 2392 miles – as the crow flies.
Which, if our calculations are correct, amounts to at least 3.8 hours flying time for Air Force One. And 4.6 hours of flying time for the accompanying cargo plane.
(For the sake of simplicity, we will assume that both planes were going at their full speed, which they probably were not. And we will not count the time in service on the ground before and after each flight.)
Using these very conservative figures, Air Force One cost $214,768 and the cargo plane cost $32,140. For a grand total of $246,908 for Mr. Obama’s two round trips.
But of course that is just for Mr. Obama’s air transportation. And it doesn’t even cover all of that.
For, as is the custom, Mr. Obama took the helicopter, Marine One, back and forth to Andrews AFB. (And he is usually accompanying by two other helicopters on the short trip.)
However, we are frankly too lazy to try to calculate all of the costs involved.
But just thinking back to Mr. Obama chiding these CEO’s about the use of their private jets, when he is spending (at least) a quarter of a million dollars to hop back and forth and back to Chicago strikes us as a bit irresponsible.
And didn’t Mr. Obama himself tell us that we are in a new age of personal responsibility?
Well, tomorrow at 8:30 Eastern we find out the "unemployment rate." For years, this and other reports have been fudged by our government and have served as the catalyst for many a market rally. My friend, Jessel, over at Jesse's Cafe Americana, wrote this about the recent ADP report. Like the rest, this was another fudge job. Two
=================
"April’s reading was revised to show a reduction of 545,000 workers, up from a previous estimate of 491,000."
Is an 11% month over month change in an employment number a revision or a rewrite?
The ADP report is supposed to be based on actual reports from private industry.
This pervasive pattern of 'good numbers' that result in stock market rallies and the massaging of public opinion, only to be replaced by downward revisions thirty days later, with little notice or quote, is cynical manipulation of the media at best, and a dangerous slide into social engineering by an increasing distortion of 'reality' at worst.
Sure looks like we're going up on fumes, however. Maybe a little drop mid-day, then a little more upside into the close? I don't see a rally starting from this level, that's for sure. Two
Thanks, Fox. Looks like limited upside tomorrow a.m., then more down as the day progresses. Two
Here's the very real mess our government has created. If I was a Chinese government top official, I'd be real worried and view Geithner as talking "with forked tongue." Two
===========================
Jun 4, 2009
AsiaTimes
China needs no sales pitch
By Axel Merk
US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's trip to Asia has been heralded as a sales trip aimed at convincing the Chinese to keep buying US Treasuries and thereby finance US deficits. Such headlines are, in my humble opinion, an insult to the Chinese.
Over and over again, we fall victim of the temptation to believe that Chinese leaders act in a vacuum, dictating policies out of a closet. Chinese leaders know very well the state of the Chinese, the US, and the world economy; they don't need a sales pitch. So what's the purpose of Geithner's trip then?
There's a saying that when you owe the bank a dollar, it is your problem. But if you owe the bank a million dollars, it's the bank's problem. Well, the US owes China US$767.9 billion worth of US Treasury securities (Chinese holdings as of March 2009) in addition to agency and other securities; in total, China owns about $1.4 trillion in US assets. This is definitely China's problem. If this is a case of "The Emperor Wears No Clothes", then the Chinese and the US are in the same boat in trying to convince the world to buy US Treasuries.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KF04Cb01.
Sure they'll ramp it into the close. But it's being done on very weak signals. I'll buy shorts on any strength going forward for the next few days. Two
Hey, Foot. Florida Congressman Alan Grayson lashed out this morning at the handling of the financial crisis. He pointed out that the Fed's expansion of the balance sheet has amounted to $30K per American. I don't know about you, but I don't feel $30K wealthier as a result of all that money going to the banks, car companies, insurors, credit card companies, etc.? The money should have been distributed to Americans, not the greedy bas-turds who got us into this mess. Two
Hi, Dan. The up-turn signals I see starting around 1:50 are still weak. My guess is that we'll see stronger signals nearer the close. Two
I did see that, rab, and thanks. But I sort of disagree with Indian. My charts suggest the rally from 3/10 (or 3/6 if you're looking at the INDU), despite stopping now for a respite, may not be over yet. And I'm not basing my opinion on what McHugh thinks. Strictly independent charting on my part. We'll see where it all takes us very soon. Two
I got a very large sell signal twice this week: once at Monday's close and the other around 10 on Tuesday. I haven't seen this signal since the indexes turned up in early April. This leads me to believe we'll head down for a healthy correction. It's the length of the correction (or advance) that is always the mystery? That said, Da Boyz love to make big index turns in the mid-July timeframe. Can you ever forget the July turn in 2006? That rally lasted for a long time. Two
Just turns, blasher, not the direction. The next "big turn" is July 14/15, which I suspect will be the rally's top. It appears to me his June 3rd turn, which is today, is a short-term top that may be followed by a June 26 short-term bottom that takes us up to the July 14/15 timeframe. Makes sense to me. But the market never really makes a lot of sense, now does it(lol)? Two
His overall direction is usually excellent, in my opinion. But he's not good to use for daytrading, generally speaking. What makes his overall direction good is that he combines e-wave with practical measures and indicators that reflect the real economy. Two
I agree, blasher. Despite what my guru says, my daily and 5-min charts suggest more downside ahead before we start up to complete the rally. The question, as always, is how much downside ahead and for how long? It could end quickly...or last a few weeks as the next Bradley turn (June 26) suggests? Two
Gleno, my guru (McHugh) had this to say. Two
=======================
The Dow Industrials rose 19.43 points, closing at 8,740.87 Tuesday. On Monday, we got the upside breakout from the parallel trend-channel from May 8th, and the symmetrical triangle patterns from that date, meaning wave C-up has started. Upside targets for the remainder of wave (B) are 1,050ish in the S&P 500 and 9,700ish in the Industrials, based upon the Bullish Head & Shoulders patterns shown on page 11. Once these upside levels are reached, we would move to a heavy cash position, in preparation for catastrophic wave (C ) down. All of our short-term indicators are on buy signals. We show those at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
It looks like Tuesday was a wave 4 corrective move, which may not quite be complete, to be followed by wave 5 up to finish off the first impulsive five-wave move, wave (1) up for C-up. We show that wave count in the charts on page 10. C-up should consist of five waves. The first is completing now. Prices have stalled at the 50 day moving average. Once they break decisively above that resistance point, there should be clear sailing for the wave (3) up impulse wave to take prices higher. We would not be surprised if wave C-up of (B) up completed at our July phi mate turn date.
There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Tuesday, suggesting a large price move is coming either Wednesday or Thursday. The 15 and 60 minute Full Stochastics are suggesting prices could fall, then rise Wednesday. The 30 minute FS is indecisive.
Hi, Gleno. As you know, there seems to be a correlation between a rising stock market and a falling U.S. dollar. Well, someone on another board pointed out very sagely that Uncle Ben testifies before Congress this morning re. the falling dollar. So what happens today, the dollar all of a sudden shoots up while the market goes down. Coincidence? LOL. Two
That's right, Gleno, and here's another reason to rally. GM announced today that it was selling its Hummer division to a Chinese company. Knowing the Chinese, they'll probably build military Hummers to use when they take over the world. Two
Hey, Foot. Plenty of business ahead in the foreclosed-home market. There's one foreclosure every 13 seconds, and nine million foreclosures are predicted by 2012 (which will cost neighboring homeowners about $1.9 trillion in lost house value). No wonder the stock market is going up(lol). Two
============
NIGHTMARE ON MAIN STREET
According to the Center for Responsible Lending (CFRL), the number of home foreclosures so far in 2009 has just topped 1 million. The CFRL even has a handy ticker, so you can watch the tally rise in real time.
The current rate of growth equates to about 6,600 homes per day, or one every 13 seconds. The group expects this 2009 foreclosure number to more than double, meaning foreclosures will hit 2.4 million for the year. (Imagine what this does to the phantom housing inventory when you include the properties which banks are holding off the market for months.)
By 2012 the ticker figure will have grown to a total of at least 9 million.
The CFRL believes these stats will drive down the value of some 70 million homes by a number of about $7,200.00 per family. That’ll mean that, through 2012, at least 9 million foreclosures will ultimately cost 92 million neighboring families a total of some $1.9 trillion.
The notion of the study is that loan modifications are not likely to succeed with “superficial fixes that fail to lower monthly payments.” Their new guidelines call for earlier intervention and modifications that will lower monthly payments.
We topped this morning, in my opinion, and will start down to lower levels. But I think it's just a chance for the indexes to catch their breath before going higher. I've been enamored of the Bradley turns for the past year, which have been quite accurate (witness 1/20-21 and 2/8-9, for example). I'm sure you see the one for June 3rd, and the next one for June 26? It would make sense to me that we burn off this over-bought situation for the next few weeks before going higher. JMHO. Two
You don't have to be a "young conservative" to identify with that video. Good one, blasher. Two
Undoubtedly it was "made in China"(lol). Re. the Geithner speech during which Chinese students laughed, he said the US dollar was strong and that Chinese investment with the
US gov't (i.e.bonds) was "very safe".
The entire room full of Chinese college students laughed at him. All of them. The articles about the speech and reaction of the Chinese students were pulled off the Bloomberg and Businessinsider sites. We don't have censorship in America, do we(lol)? Two
Hey, Fox. Apparently, a group of Chinese students laughed at Geithner during a speech when he talked about China "protecting its assets." The video circulated on the Web, but now it's being eliminated from viewing. Appears our leaders didn't want it to be seen in the U.S.? Two
Hi, Gleno, I've been here. Sometimes while I'm watching my positions, I'll spend the entire day experimenting with new chart ideas and concepts. As you know, this is an engrossing activity. But I'm always watching the board, especially your posts and those of Footquarters. Two
It's coming...hang in there. Two
Hi, RCKS, I think the INDU starts down now for a short time based on both my 5-min and daily charts. It's my opinion, as well, that the NDX may have topped yesterday and will take a breather. We'll know shortly. Good trading. Two
JMHO, but I think today was an important turn date, at least on the INDU. Two
Gleno, jam job into the close? Two
Excellent, 2bit. Perhaps the most poignant quote re. indicators is from someone we all know:
"All indicators are BS." NM
Two