Background is in Investor Relations and portfolio management focused on energy stocks. Always looking for opportunities to learn & share more.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Do I hear disproportionate fear?
Sure, we dare not bet the rent on anything when there's so much uncertainty---but do we have to give up on everything?
I'm looking at MNLO and RCEL and the two of these are adding $73K to my portfolio at the moment. Sure, things will erode somewhat towards day's end. So what? I will too! Checking again, it's now up $78K. Sweet!!!
I think we sometimes let fears dominate, clouding our judgment.
By the way, my morning and afternoon chia program results now stand at:
Losing 0.2 lbs. daily since adding the afternoon ounce or two. That's nearly 1 1/2 pounds a week.
I'm now down to 194.9. While I have no specific goal in mind, I think no less than 180 would be advisable. I had my cancer bout seven years ago and want to be sure I'm adequately prepared to weather a second storm should it be in the cards. Meanwhile, these days have me looking for successes and weight loss is providing me with some real substance. I'll take it!
As of this morning, it's getting hard to buy chia at Amazon. The 25 pound bags are no longer available and they don't see that changing. But smaller amounts can be bought.
Good luck, Wrinkles and all here!
USEI has yet to provide any useful information whatsoever.
And I think you're right. But I'm also thinking a lot of the investing community is naive, assuming that all stocks are to be avoided right now. We dropped 98 cents this week. I'll be reloading at $5 and I believe we'll see it this coming week.
When I first read your question last night, it struck me:
Is Steve asking about events specific to RCEL or is he wondering about global concerns pushing down on us?
You may have been totally clear and perhaps it was me who wasn't sure if I have both feet under me? lol
So after thinking about this for some hours, I think I understand what confused me:
Regardless of anything on the forward path for Avita, I can look only at the Corona virus path as it is this that will take and occupy center stage. Right now all interest is being weighed down by Covid 19, without doubt. How it goes---so it will go for each of us.
If we make it to June or July without severe repercussions stemming from the disease, perhaps then we'll be finding ourselves on thicker ice upon which to stretch our legs and hearts as we survey the future.
As for my own actions---I've accumulated enough cash to enable the purchase of another 15,000 shares of RCEL without infringing on my cash nest egg. I'm waiting for $5/share and lower. I have no doubts as to where this company is heading. Of course, I don't know that I'll be able to get my orders filled at the $4.75 to $5 range but I've got time to waste what with the global slow-down. This week I watched as we gave up 98 cents per share. That's a lot of money for me and a whole lot to others, I'm betting.
In short, the buck stops here---and until we get some resolution regarding the virus, all bets are off. Still, I fully expect my moves to fill orders in coming days will offset some of the downside we are currently experiencing.
Good luck to you!
One size does not fit all.
Some dangerous waters happening what with a 12% drop in the rig count just this week.
How will the remaining rigs fare given the dramatic lowering of petroleum necessary to maintain former product levels? And I wonder what right we have to expect a return to anything formerly the norm when I know too much has changed for that to be even remotely realistic. How can we expect to return to earlier industrial needs and homeowner needs when we have no idea as to our being able to return to & sustain life as we knew it? A large part of difficulty associated with predicting future needs results from our never having gone through demand destruction such as we are now experiencing. While our government has been truly dazzling in its responsiveness to ongoing issues, the fact remains that these concerns truly ARE ongoing. There's nothing temporary when it comes to protecting our lives and day-to-day health worries.
As a senior I will not be venturing out any time soon to avail myself of my favorite haunts, be they restaurants, entertainment fares or church-related sites. Heck, I don't even dare to visit Sam's Club or a regular supermarket! While I have no underlying frailties exposing me to immune system-based threats, I am a senior and that, of itself, confirms that my "repair rate" will not equal that of a younger person.
Our nation is full of people like me---old yet more than capable of self foraging. However, we are also smart enough to avoid venturing outside quite possibly inviting premature death by exposure to fellow humans now capable of carrying my death warrant. I'm suddenly allergic to my fellow human beings---friends, family, coworkers and even lovable strangers I'd normally welcome into my life.
The rig count drops might appear to be pointing to situations on the brink of or ending as soon as the economy reopens. But that is so far from the truth for it fails to recognize "lead time." This is the time needed to reorganize things forcibly dropped out of the picture a couple of months ago when the pandemic challenged much of our previous existence.
Shut-in wells will not be reopened just like that. It's not like flipping a switch. It's more like pulling together a whole team of petroleum engineers and computer specialists who monitor the gauges measuring extraction. And there's the maintenance folks and laborers and office personnel and even support people manning helicopters and bringing in feed and so much more. A lot of investors would do very well to visit the Midland-Odessa area (Permian Basin) and spend a few days learning about life in a desert formerly not good for much more than oil and gas and countless acres of barely profitable windmills that pay a landholder $50/month for usage fees per acre---and even then you've got to commit a couple of hundred acres before site construction will even begin.
This isn't a rosy picture for sure. But there are many, many Americans about to enter into what I call "the hungries." I've never seen starvation and I'm not of the belief I could even allow it to happen in front of me. So I'm wondering how far I will go to alleviate some of the pain of others?
More as things develop.
Why not $10?
Hey, anyone for $100?
Provide evidence in support or is it just mindless gibberish?
Can you establish $10,000 suits?
Prolly in 2026.
That's when certain investors should have long outgrown the penchant for lollipops.
You're right, of course, there's nothing on the horizon indicating a shortage of cash will be a problem any time soon.
I'm thinking it has to have been something else specific to this stock. The move up was too strong. I doubt all oil stocks moves so much.
You must have balls of crystal. lol
What made this bolt today? I'm not seeing any news to explain it.
TIA
I could rebut this easily enough but we've got one butt already.
Long pants will rule the day, shorts desperate to force a shift out of RCEL will watch.
From one ah (me) to maybe a few others out there:
LS stands for Little Shit---my donkey.
I've taught him to smile on command. Cute guy.
Thanks, Wrinkles. Appreciated muchly.
Why are you thinking that Wall Street can be explained by logic alone?
I sold a few thousand RCEL, my priestess of the harem---expecting it to lose ground. It had nothing at all to do with the company or technological failures of any sort whatsoever. Rather, it was about two things:
1. I'd added earlier this week at $5.60 to $5.62 & wanted to lock in gains. Sold a few k's at $5.83 down to $5.78. Made a few bucks the sweet way.
2. The other shoe is definitely going to drop---later this year and maybe extending out into Q1 or Q2 of 2021. That said, for me, the imperative is that of consolidating as much cash as I possibly can. So I'm doing my bunny thing, hopping onto every opportunity to cop gains by trading my trading shares without relinquishing core holdings.
Things cannot possibly continue as they are going at this moment. There's nothing to support erratic behaviors exhibited by the masses or them asses demanding the country take care of them.
Where this all winds up is beyond me. And I'm convinced logic will not and cannot explain the unexplainable. I don't see logic alone as the means to success. Rather, I believe this is a time to pull resources together until there's a clearly defined "pattern for success" in clear view.
For me, at least, it's time to forget about logic being the final arbiter. Then again, isn't that logical?
lol
Perhaps some investors see things and maybe a few won't because they can't.
Unfortunately I don't believe everyone is able to see. But it doesn't stop them from blabbering, does it?
For the umpteenth time:
Avita isn't proposing a reverse split in order to screw investors.
As a matter of fact, following proposed consolidation, our share price will be in line with other companies' stock offerings.
Lost in the shuffle of redomiciling...
With a U. S. domicile reset, our shares will be far more attractive to American investors without having to wade through ADR hoops---requiring additional trading fees and related stuff complicating the picture. We will be trading on a platform scaled such that shares will price on a competitive platform as they should be. This makes us much more attractive to larger American business where entry into investing is dependent upon share price as per the investing company's bylaws governing investing practices.
The split is not your everyday reverse split! There's no intent shown desirous of altering the share structure. Instead, it's about pulling enough shares together so as to have our individual share price reflect equality. It has nothing to do with trying to screw investors.
I don't expect to change the opinions of others. But I can't sit idly by while a very few others vent their conspiracy fears and availability to being controlled. I'm not without my neuroses but I'm ever thankful that I'm fully functional and not overrun by fears threatening my existence.
I couldn't agree more, tdeck!
As for comments re. 8-K's establishing done deals?
That is such ridiculous fear arising due to someone else's state of possible concerns! I'm glad I don't entertain such fears, there's enough bad stuff around already.
It's usually going to be a pretty darned safe bet when both sides of any contracting situation are in agreement. This is precisely what we now have---China has greed, Menlo has agreed---this is a deal made in Heaven with cash up front. In an earlier life I completed many deals for myself in personal business transactions and for others when heading up Investor Relations for traded companies. There is so very much that goes into an MOU and people not familiar with the process will logically worry. One thing for sure---in all my contracting years, I NEVER ONCE encountered a lopsided contracting arrangement resulting in an aborted deal because one of the parties wasn't sincere about wishing to combine forces.
So I have 160,000 shares of MNLO at this point in time. I guarantee you that when today's excitement subsides, I'll be adding. This may not be how everybody "does it" but it's definitely my way.
I wish everybody the best of good fortune.
There are other details, that's to be expected for sure. But both parties involved have agreed in principle and it doesn't get better than that.
This board reflects interests of both investors as well as traders. Both camps appeal to me with the trader side taking the reins when I'm not seeing investment grade opportunity up close.
Last night Australia dropped our shares enough to suggest TO ME that we're heading into murky waters. Now, truth be told---I am expecting "the other shoe to drop" sometime this year. Whether it will be due to political shuffling or a second wave of illness involving both the flu and Covid-19 is beyond my paygrade as a retired craftsman and Investor Relations VP.
My instincts have worked well enough to have me financially now positioned sufficiently that the wife and I don't feel concern or worry. But there's a caveat:
Neither my wife nor I knows what the eventual fallout will be from this ongoing global crisis. It would not surprise me to find United States currency dramatically devalued at some point this year or early in 2021. Today people fret that they are unable to work, that they want more money from the government, that they worry about medical coverage and associated benefits formerly enjoyed when permitted to work.
My fear is that when the cookie crumbs conclude their drop to the floor---our world will be considerably changed. I don't focus on what those changes will be. Rather, it's always (for me) about how well I'm able to manage. I cannot control things happening all about me. I can control, on the other hand, how I apply my authority.
So then, what is the extent of my authority?
It's money! Simple as that---money!
That said, I expected RCEL to drop back to the $5.60 range if not lower---beginning today and extending well beyond that. Thus it is that I sold 3,000 shares in premarket trades at prices starting at $5.83 and had to sell a 170 at $5.78 just to complete the mission.
And now I'm sitting on cash raised this morning plus a more considerable sum accumulated over the past few weeks so I'm feeling readier to face challenges brought on by market uncertainty.
I continue to preserve core (permanent) shares but I want to emphasize the importance of trading non-core shares. We're talking about my trading shares here.
Trading RCEL is probably the only way to make a buck these days. Waiting for Japan to go whole hog or diabetic foot ulcers to save us---these are likely to happen but I'm not holding my breath waiting. I have to protect my assets now if I'm to enjoy living tomorrow.
I just looked and find RCEL is moving down to $5.68 despite this shaping up (so far) as an overall up day in the market.
So, then.....I've said my piece. My intent is not to push people to sell or trade for short term profits. My wish is to bring others to face things my wife and I are facing---things, hopefully, that may help bring clarity to cloudy times.
I'm expecting shares to eventually drop back to around $5.
I wish everybody here the very best, as always.
Aren't you forgetting unions enrolling at those big companies?
I was a small business owner all my life. Never had to battle union warfare. One employee in all those years threatened to bring a union in. I told him to do it. I doubted he'd succeed as I was already paying more than others in the same space.
Sometimes it's better to face the worst before it comes knocking on the door.
Nice!
Bringing us good news at a depressing time such as we find ourselves forced to experience?
Thank you for caring.
How much of any of this points to how involved stores are doing today?
When stores are closed, their brick & mortar presence is meaningless, isn't it?
I'm a mark-to-market-guy. Nightly I tally so as to know for certain that I'm succeeding or just sucking seed. I'm thinking I may be making more $$ than some of these closed store---not counting their online program if any.
It's so easy to speak to things unfair or illogical based on other entities in the same or similar space. But I dropped a couple of hundred G's on this pick so the glow is tarnished although not off the table. But I'll stay out until I see numbers coming in atte4sting to the validity of things you're saying.
As you should know, I respect the Hell out of you. My problem is that I don't want to stay in Hell for long.
Not to pooh-pooh your chart but I'm reminded of something I came up with many years ago---
There's no future in the past.
I've been adding to MNLO fairly consistently because of things I envision in the future. I figure that looking back can't work because the whole table has to be reset, thanks to Covid-19.
All the charting in the world cannot possibly work efficiently so long as compiled data is based on pre-pandemic inflows.
Maybe it's essential for the CONTINUING well being of these companies in such a highly screwyassed time such as it is?
It's so damned easy to throw stones so long as we don't dare become fully responsible for our own well-being! Idealism is great---so long as it can be afforded. I live in Texas right at the border. It's easy for me to see how lower wages paid in Mexico benefit us in the States.
Do you really think Raytheon and GE et al wouldn't love to see Americans fill those jobs?
Beautiful summation!
It's important to distinguish, as you've done---that OTC plays should not be lumped into the same reverse split feedbag holding RCEL.
Avita is not about to do a reverse for the sake of money. Rather, it's about aligning with other biotechs so as to introduce us as a U.S. domiciled entity on the NAZ without unduly disproportionate capitalization.
Avita does not need to suck money out of this move to be fully American. And the company doesn't need to trick investors into keeping the faith. What we do need is a perceived share-based valuation of something in the $30 range. I find that reasonable, desirable and I fully endorse it.
We tend to associate reverses with bad business because they are most often tied in with pending failure. Avita is quite the reverse---else I'd not have added 17,000 shares this week, largely yesterday, of course. Typical OTC plays demonstrate financial failure around the corner so they'll struggle to meet eligibility requirements to maintain a listing. The reverse, as we all know, ensures compliance. But this is not part of the basis on which Avita's reverse is being planned. Rather, we, as a company, are tightening the belt and rebalancing the bowtie, declaring for one and all that we are here---we are here to stay---and dumb-assed traders aren't going to stand a shot at crippling us.
I'm very much looking forward to the redomiciling bringing a great company into our family of notable American companies.
This is incorrect. I've been in a number of reverses, was even on the inside of two. They worked out very well for shareholders as well as vital stakeholders.
Then again, I'm not talking about penny stocks. If you're talking about pennies, then I could concur some of the time.
I believe we'll agree that Avita doesn't belong in this discussion.
And I thank you as well!
My Internet has been out since 3am so I'm on 4G. It's getting things done.
Picked up 16,000 shares so far
Reaching now for $5.50 on GTC + extended.
I've gotta say that while these prices we're now getting were expected, getting to execute at dirt cheap prices is a dream come true.
If anything, I'm talking about validation. And my cost basis is dropping beautifully!
I hope our board regulars are able to take advantage too.
I'm ok with thzt.
We experience stormy weather all the time.
But I'm 6 feet above & thankful for that.
Earlier I mentioned setting up orders for RCEL at $6.18 and $6.11.
I just killed those orders being as RCEL is going for 44 cents in Australia. now at 10:30 pm Central.
So I placed an order including extended hours to catch the premarket if possible.
My offer is for a thousand shares at $5.60. If it hits I'll dig deeper, prolly $5.34 as it sounds like a good number.
RCEL shares tend to drop in mid morning so don't be suckered in should the price appear to be inordinately high in the early going.
Let's talk tomorrow, OK?
Exciting times for sure.
Thank you. You are a kind man.
One can only wonder if our most recent news regarding redomiciling to the States was already known prior to set to resetting the gauge?
If it wasn't, then I'd expect a reset.
For those with a few coins left in a pocket---I just placed orders as follow:
1. 1,000 shares of RCEL at $6.18
2. 1,000 shares of RCEL at $6.11.
These orders are set to execute as GTC+ext. This means they are free to execute in off hours before or after normal session operation.
I realize these orders may not fill but---I didn't know that I'd get fills on my buy-side trades this morning, either. And seeing my $6.35 order towards the close gave me a lift although I obviously overpaid.
Bottom line:
Looking out several months ahead, I'm expecting shares will be in a much better investing environment. So I'm banking on that. If I'm wrong? I won't like it but it won't deprive my wife, me and our livestock from eating.
My best to you all!
Sorry to disagree but the arrival of oil's extreme crash such as we're experiencing today was, indeed, apparent. I think a lot of people couldn't manage denial so the process descended as we're now seeing it.
To wit:
On March 20th of this, the Year of Our Lord Wrinkles--- the following was posted on the NGL board here at IHUB:
Note, it's post # 7813:
The order for 1,000 shares of RCEL at $6.35 finally went though. I wouldn't be surprised to find our share price drift lower in which case I'll continue adding.
Regardless of how we might interpret the language employed in explaining the move to U.S. domicile from Australia, I have faith in our system and also Avita management.
I expect we will be treated respectfully and fairly. There doesn't seem to be a case for the negative as presented by our local shepherd.
That's what I wanted
Sanity on a message is sometimes under-appreciated.
RCEL is looking just fine to me, else I'd not have added today.
I remain well underwater but I expected as much for these are troubling times.
Things will eventually right themselves, I'm confident.
Good luck to you!
Yes, shares always follow suit price-wise.
Reorganizations sometimes result in a failure to retain share value but it's not due to anything other than market perception. A 10/1 forward split would divide the pre-split valuation by a factor of ten. Similarly, reverses work the same way but in reverse direction.
I added 6,000 shares of RCEL today believing they would rise as people realize the American dollar will now be fully supporting of a formerly Australia-domiciled stock. While I greatly respect the Australian stock market as I do our own here in the States, a whole lot of people out there have never tracked non-U.S. stocks. For that reason some probably harbor concerns that we here on this board won't and don't.
For the record, I have a GTC + ext. order for 1,000 shares of RCEL to execute at $6.35. I'm thinking there's a pretty good chance of this executing today. If the market goes into tanking mode towards today's market close, then my GTC status is self-explanatory.
This is a great time to be building for the future!
These are my thoughts and actions only, by the way. I don't want anybody to be hurt by my level of risk tolerance.
Good fortune to all.
When I read of people pooh-poohing all the pandemic stuff as though it's a political enstranglement design---I'm reminded of something that struck me last week---something I now say to any naysayer operating under a veil of fear and conspiracy thoughts:
"Which would YOU rather have as your diagnosis---the flu or Covid-19?"
I know the answer for myself. I'd suggest that those wishing to shoot Covid-19 concerns down confront the real question (above)---as it personalizes the real question underlying this situation.
My opinion, only.
Unable to answer that. I expect your shares will continue the present listing arrangement but you might call your broker to get definite information.
Let us know, won't you?
If you're watching post numbers, I may be in position to clear up some confusion:
I just deleted four or five duplicate posts of my own. The posting machinery wasn't operating fully.
I just picked up another thousand shares of RCEL at $6.40. I'd encourage people here to undershoot the auction numbers foisted so as to save a bit of money. I'm liking the $6.40 I just paid a lot much more better (huh?) than the $6.60 in early premarket trading.
Good fortune!
By the way, be sure to do a copy should it be necessary to execute a paste while posting. I had two posts here already dismissed by the ghosts of Cyberamerica. It saves a lo9t of unnecessary rewrites.
Given that Avita is re-domiciling to the U.S. (hoooooraaaayyyyy!), I've been on a tear (no, not the crying type. lol)---buying six thousand shares so far this morning in pre-market trading. I've been paying about $6.60 average.
With oil barely above $11, the overall breadth of our stock market is surely going to reflect severe roiling. It is likely that even our precious RCEL will be rocked about. That said, I expect our shares to trade well below their rightful (true value) place.
For sure, I'll be riding this baby down, should the opportunity rear its head. This is the stuff that makes people rich.
As for the reorganization?
Avita is newly establishing America as its home base. ADR status will change. We'll be assessed a $38 reorganization fee with some investors complaining. At the same time, we won't be paying the periodic $2 or so per share assessed ADRs as Avita will soon become a U.S. domiciled stock.
What this means to me is that our stock will become a U.S. stock, subject to the same rules and regulations as with any American stock. Additionally, RCEL will usher in the broadest possible marketing opportunity imaginable. Gone will be any confusion regarding Australian market interpretation, all will be handled like any other American equity.
Also, we'll be dispensing with currency rebalancings as the Australian dollar will no longer be part of the reconciliation process some of us face every morning so as to get a handle on true value to be found daily in America.
Now, I'm not suggesting anybody go out and commit to new shares of RCEL. As a matter of fact, it's likely that I overpaid a trifle. But there was a good enough (for me) reason to risk overpaying a bit, given the news:
I expect that when the reorganization is in full effect, shares will begin a ride higher, a notable one, in fact. I could believe we'll advance a dollar or two and possibly higher than that.
As far as I'm concerned, this is the best news I could embrace at this terribly unstable time in the stock market.
Best of smart trading to all here---and please---do share your moves as this is such an important part of providing clarity.
Thank you!
Very well said!