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China V worth billions?
I highly doubt that.
In Pfizers annual report their TOTAL REVENUE from China in 2020 FY amounted to PNLY 6% or around 2.2B
That's all drugs of an entire BP worth a miserable $2B in revenue
So V alone is gonna grow that by 50%? Hard to believe
What court loss? Marjacs suit?
I doubt many investors outside the ihub or stocktwits community heard about it.
If they did and they were banking on a reversal then they're exceedingly foolish. It was always a free hit
Never in doubt with ANY investor that V is worth more with BP than AMRN
Where there is significant doubt is the valuations BP is prepared to pay for AMRN
Right now i doubt that the board is "too stubborn to sell" as many are accusing.
I think its more a question of valuation.
I am very certain the most BP would pay for today's stock is around $10 or so hence the stalemate we see.
Agree.
My fairly optimistic read of the situation is that we can probably maintain between $500-$1B annual sales in Vascepa over the next 5 years.
Not a lot for sure and a far cry from projections post approval
But still roughly $1B in free cash flow assuming EU operations cover HQ overheads (roughly 20% net margins after us sg&a)
I believe with BP it's potentially worth even much more (EU Alone)
As we've seen, generics face very tough challenges securing API and may take far longer than normal to ramp up even after patents expire
It could be worth an extra $1b or so
While that's true
The US is still generating meaningful revenues
We're looking at conservatively between 500-600m pa until the 2 year timeframe in EU
Would like to hear your take tho PD
Share prices are mainly driven by perception of value. They can turn around sharply with a catalyst.
I doubt the board would take $10 mind.
How often have buyouts happened at 200% premium?
The answer is almost never
For that reason I don't want a buyout until the stock touches $10s
IF the buyout happens in May or June you'reooking at $10 not $15.
If they sold the company you won't be a bagholder
Partner and you could be holding for awhile yet.
Terrible idea
Need all of EU market to keep potential sale alive
Partner in EU = Dead money
IF that info is true potentially AMRN feels several ways:
1. Extremely optimistic about lawsuit, such that WHEN they win (not if) they get all generic easily converted into brand
2. Potentially non infringement use for high trig still means doctors will prescribe brand name V for other indications.
Yes that's true.
Now counteract that with the fact that the vast majority of people can make a full recovery from covid.
While with CVD, if you don't die, you'll likely need to take pills or watch your diet and health for the rest of your life. There's no cure for CVD.
Yep. Had a friend keel over and die during a game of touch football at the ripe old age of 36.
Had high cholesterol and stressful job but was healthy otherwise and not overweight at all. In fact he was a healthy 180lbs at 6".
CVD doesn't need comorbidities to kill you while Covid often does.
But covid is unexpected and new, while cvd is "known". Hence the big gap in perception
Good idea. Hence an email to KM may work.
Don't need to burn a question out of the 3 Capt submits.
If they're not willing to fix it after a direct email to JT or KM, a question (which likely won't even be asked) isn't gonna change anything will it.
Yes but since there's no good way they can come out of that situation without egg on their face it's extremely likely that they will avoid the situation entirely and ignore the question (or even CaptBeers entire email).
It's like asking someone "why do you have several multimillion dollar homes after spending decades advocating for wealth redistribution?"
There's no way they can answer the question without looking bad so most likely they'll evade or avoid it altogether.
I'm not saying you're not entitled to know.
However bear in mind they control the entire show.
They pick the questions to address.
Best to submit questions with a chance of getting answered rather than those that most likely will be ignored.
You're not an analyst who gets to ask questions.
And even IF you are, you can bet you won't be one of the analysts picked if you ask questions they aren't particularly comfortable answering. How often does Jen Psaki pick the Fox News reporter's question to answer?
I'm not defending management in any way but having prepared similar Q&A packs for a biotech investor day. My advice:
1. Confrontational or aggressive questions are pointless. The company will refuse to entertain them.
That rules out 7 & 18. The company is NOT going to say reps are doing a poor job publicly. And even if layoffs are coming down the line they will never make an announcement via a q&a (maybe in the conference proper).
2. M&A and litigation questions are equally pointless. Litigation = no comment and even if M&A is asked it will be answered with boilerplate meaningless drivel.
3. For what it's worth my vote is for 1, 2 and 15.
You are correct.
JT was an excellent bookkeeper.
He was however, a poor sales lead and a terrible hype man.
Hence stagnantion in sales and a lack of self promotion in the stock due to sandbagging and ultra conservatism.
A change is welcome indeed.
However, legal failures aside (which I blame on management in some part especially filing in the 9th circuit), management of the company has actually been reasonable.
Not good, but reasonable.
Without Du and Covid, i do believe Vascepa wales would have topped $1B or thereabouts in the US by run rate already. We certainly were on track pre covid.
Du debacle (insurers preferring generic or dropping coverage) and covid (fewer tests, less access to cardios and GPs) put paid to that.
Ok get a grip dude.
Your thoughts on Thero are fine, possibly even warranted in some way.
But KM is evil / malicious for not holding a PC despite not even fully assuming the CEO role yet?
Again, get a grip dude. There are shorts that are less negative about this stock.
Seriously
Eh no.
He was wrong. Dead wrong.
Jesselivermore (the poster) and JZ / JT were right.
The drug worked. It's a wonder drug.
I refuse to believe AF could've seen management underperforming and the Dubacle.
Dude would have to be Nostradamous 10X to see that.
I'm not a big football guy but didn't the bucs sign a bunch of folks beyond just Brady?
1. We don't know that.
2. Even IF he came, he alone may not be able to make that much of a difference, the way Lebron may struggle dragging the Blue Coats to the NBA playoffs.
Not to mention a company has hundreds of employees unlike the handful on a court, so a solo superstar may have a lot less of an impact than you think.
Is AMGNs success solely dependent on it's CEO? I think the answer is more complicated than you think.
Yeah but let's face it we ain't the Nets.
If PFE and JNJ are the Lakers then the Nets are AZN or Novartis.
We're like the Delaware Blue Coats in the G League (and yeah I had to google that).
LeBron or Dwayne Wade ain't moving to Delaware even if you gave them half the team and matched their salary, I can guarantee you that.
Fair enough.
Let's wait and see for the next 2 weeks.
I agree that the actions of management have earned them skepticism but given the change in the corner office I'm willing to be patient.
What's a couple more weeks after years and years anyway
To address your points one by one:
1. On IR lack of proactiveness: fair enough but a new sheriff is in town. Either the policy or the team may change so give it some time.
2. On JT replacement being known: maybe by the BOD and even by KM but NOT by the rank and file.
New CEO needs to communicate internally before reaching out to investors. I would not expect any less
3. BAU so far.... let's give it a week to see. You're right that the new man needs to come out and outline a vision, and he may already have SOME idea but he needs to run it by the guys on the ground otherwise it remains just a dream.
Hence i think the right time to talk to investors would be within a week or two.
IF it hits $2. I'm taking out a new mortgage and going all in.
The price action is crazy. There must be a big whale dumping today.
I am NOT a permabull (like some that think we'll hit $30+).
But based on the fundamentals this shouldn't trade anywhere below $8.
That's because JT was fired not resigned.
Hence, news to IR as well.
Be patient man. What are you, like, 5?
IF one week and still no updates from IR by all means get mad. But 24H is way too soon.
Lol.
My bullshitto meter is buzzing.
1. JT is old snd conservative. IF he got fired he's not going to put it on Facebook and Toktok like kids who just lost their fast food job. So that avenue is out.
2. Who tells their friends they got fired? Do you? Can u imagine the conversation:
Friend: whaddup bro
JT: grab the Cristal and pack the golf clubs.. just got fired today
F: eh? Life sucks
J: Na job sucks any way and Lars was an Ahole. Lets go to the clubs 2nite bro. Need a drink and some LADEEZ
3. Even IF perchance your colleague was BFF with JT why the hell would he tell you, a non mutual friend with zero vested interest about an extremely embarrassing event in a man's lige?
JT needs much better friends and is a bad judge of character if this is the case.
If one of my CEO friends got fired and someone asked me for info I'd tell them to fvk off, the guy needs space.
You're right.
But then since we're on this tangential technical way of thinking, technically, if this individual had sold all his possessions and put it into Bitcoin in 2011, he could be a billionaire and not require any stimulus checks in the first place. And maybe he would own the Mar-a-Lago instead of being arrested there.
So maybe he should be throwing smoke bombs at himself.
I mean what else was he supposed to do?
Sit on his hands and wait for a decision before doing anything?
TV ads are the only iffy thing. But that's also in hindsight, with the pandemic we're seeing that TV is more and more a waste of time and digital ads is where it is.
I don't know if you just found out about this stock or what.
But absolutely nobody would have called thero overconfident before the Du verdict.
He certainly isn't the biotech version of Elon Musk. Literally ZERO past precedents point to him being overconfident, in fact it's literally the opposite, people would call him overcautious to a fault!
Now clearly nobody on this board really knows how it all went down. Maybe he had some terrible advice. Maybe he had a buyerlined up contingent on winning the court case. Maybe generics just refused to settle for whatever reason. But I would bet against him being overconfident all day any day.
Yes an activist investor will very much keep management on it's toes.
Very exciting development.
This is a really unfair characterization.
The infringement suit against Hikma clearly indicates that he has the balls to take problems head on.
He may not have made the best decisions in the past but claiming he buries his head in the sand is ridiculous.
My take is, rise back to $8.50, sale announced at $13.
If (and big if) mitigate trial is successful price could be higher, maybe around $15-16 range.
The market doesn't always "know".
Heck biotechs are known as binary stocks precisely because the market knows that they don't know most of the time with violent moves in either direction post results.
Just look at AMRN after REDUCE IT. If the market knew the share price would have been above $10 due to indicative trials like JELIS before the official PR.
The fact that they have agreed to a rehearing means there's a good chance their minds have changed on the position.
Much more positve than En banc when you're already down 2-1 (assuming the original judges wouldn't change their initial positions or risk being seen as weak).
Less about money. More about politics.
Teva was granted a rehearing. Which is a substantial risk and indicates generics get an easier ride.
I expect that whatever the outcome of the Amarin infringement suit expect it to go the same way thru the courts. Multiple appeals and generics always more likely to get appeals or rehearings.
Couldn’t they do a call option buy out or bonus/mofier sandwich
IF there was an offer or serious expression of interest what do you expect the company would do?
Sit on their hands?
Let 50% of the staff go?
Go out and spend virtual money on new lamborghinis for all the C suite in anticipation of deal closure?
And if the deal falls through for whatever reason / is delayed you would be up sh1t creek with no paddle?
Something tells me you're not cut out for this management thing......
I believe AMRN will be sold in short order.
I do think the price will be in line with FFS' chart predictions but very disappointing to the many that participated in Raf's poll however.
I think we are looking at $12-$15 a share (or less with a CVR) by H2 2021.