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The Big Boys have finally decided to take it down ... ?
Sentient Trader
This is what I use and have been enjoying it since I was part of the beta testing back in 2010. David Hickson is the creator and also runs the Hurstcycles.com website. I owe a lot to David for creating this software as it makes you work as a Hurst analyst so much more efficient. You can have a look at sentienttrader.com
cheers,
john
Hi Peter,
Yes I agree that the 17th was a 5 week low. Cycles are running longer. And yesterday was a 1.25 week which I expected.
To see the bearish outcome, you have to agree on my phasing and I think I laid it out fairly clearly as to what I see. The 40 week lows marked by the summation index is key and I have assumed for a long while that late August 2013 saw the last 40 week low. If true, cycles are running much longer now.
We'll know next week because that is when I expect things to get moving one way or another. GLGT.
cheers,
john
Still bearish ...
http://hurstcycles.com/spx-18-month-hurst-cycle-low/#sthash.WxvNz96v.dpbs
cheers,
john
Coffee saw 16 year Hurst cycle lows late last year. Cycles are up well into next year. I bought JO Q3-Q4 last year and sold ~35. I am waiting for a pullback into May before going long again. GLGT.
cheers,
john
PS That is my last post for the next month. See you in April.
pmiles,
Yes, I have the 4.5 year Hurst cycle low as Nov. 2012, a contracted 4.5 year cycle. That is the basis of my post in Jan. And why we should be on the lookout for a problem here in this 20 week cycle. I expect a straddle low (4.5 year) to form by the summer.
You know that Hurst never considered cycles to invert. The way I look at it is this. If a major cycle fails and puts in a high where you expected a low, then the trend has likely changed.
I'll go to today's situation. Let's say that the 18 month cycle, which has been running ~15-16 months (from 2009) was actually the early Feb. low. And if the major trend for this 9 year cycle were to change, then that low in Feb. would eventually fail to hold. I call that a cycle failure and it will likely occur here.
The same thing happened in 2007. We all saw the Aug. 2007 low as an 18 month and 4.5 year Hurst cycle low. But when it failed to hold later in 2008, you knew there was a big problem with the cyclic picture. Again I call this an example of cycle failure.
Price action will tell us a lot in the coming weeks and we'll see how we make the next 10 week low.
cheers,
john
PS Crude oil is in big trouble and gold has turned in a bullish cycle (rally >10 weeks) off the late 2013 low.
Hi Peter,
I agree entirely with what you say from a Hurst perspective. However, my thought is that an 18 month low is ahead and that a Hurst 4.5 year straddle is very likely into the summer. That is we only saw a 20 week low here in early Feb. I'm expecting the cycles to fail in a big way here and I think it will be China that brings it all down. TWT.
cheers,
john
Bear market coming ...
We are a day or two away from starting a multi-year bear market.
I have started to accumulate inverse S&P ETFs, BIS (bearish Biotech bubble), FXP (bearish China) and VIX long ETFs.
I have started to hedge long term portfolios today in positions such as MDLZ and KRFT.
This bear market will start with a lot of volatility in the next two months as I described in my Jan. post.
The top of this 9 year Hurst cycle is likely upon us. We'll know more about this with the price action to come. And I'll explain more on this possibility once we see how the coming correction unfolds. GLGT.
cheers,
john
4.5 Yr Hurst straddle trough. As I posted in Jan., I see a real risk that this market corrects hard into the next 18 month cycle low. If this is going to occur, a decline should start very soon and complete by this summer. My view hasn't changed.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/j-m-hurst-4-year-presidential-cycle/#sthash.VO5Mu3Uf.uNEeYSIr.dpbs
Good call on the USDJPY pair. I am looking at shorting the BTK on a further breakdown. I have started an initial position. The BTK is a massive bubble ready to pop and it will hurt the NDX and RUT technically.
5 year bull market anniversary is tomorrow (ie. March 6th 2009 low). We are days away from forming a top to that bull market IMO. Confirmation will only come late March or in April on the extent of the coming decline.
cheers,
john
I'm waiting for the bounce into late this week or early next week to add to shorts. I'm not keen on attempting any longs from this point on. Watch the Yen (Yen up SPX down and vice versa) as it should give short term clues.
A 5 week Hurst cycle low is due early to mid-week for the $SPX. It is likely to form today/tomorrow. We will see one more rise and then this 20 week cycle will top. A new high is not necessarily guaranteed for the next high. Markets will be sharply lower into the summer from there. GLGT.
"Next week will tell."
That's it in a nutshell. It looked very good for bulls until early afternoon. I follow the Yen and was watching it closely today. The only thought I had was if this $SPX breakout is real, the Yen should sell off in a big way but it didn't.
If larger $SPX cycles are up we should see a rally continue and take out highs. However, based on my preferred phasing, we are coming off a 20 week Hurst cycle low in early Feb., the last one in this 18 month cycle. This 20 week cycle should be relatively weak and LT translated. Typically, if we are this late in an 18 month cycle, weakness should be apparent by the 5th week of the new 20 week cycle. I think we see signs of "risk off" next week.
And with similar phasing, GE broke its 40 week FLD yielding a target of ~22.5
Hurst 2.5 week low today ... a rise into opex or Monday and then we see where the larger cycles really are. A 5 week low is due early March. I'm bearish on this 20 week Hurst cyle.
Its all in the phasing. If you have the right phasing, you are golden. I'm not convinced we saw a 40 week low. Nominally the 18 month (at 15 months) could have come in here (early Feb.), but that's not what I have. As always TWT.
On Tuesday the 10 week FLD (median) is at 1845 and hovers there all week. Its of course the level of the Jan. high price action and it should form resistance.
The 2.5 week projects 1862 as a new high. I'm not convinced this will happen here as the 10 week FLD sits directly overhead at 1837 today. The 10 week FLD is in the wrong place for a bullish cross and new upleg and will likely form resistance. Any sideways down move here next week and price falls back below the 20 week FLD. If a top is forming this month, its hard to tell as they are making it look very bullish here today.
20 week Hurst low ...
This past week, I wasn't sure if we were to see just a 10 week Hurst low or a 10 & 20 week Hurst cycle low. Based on price action and indicators, I believe it was a 20 week Hurst low as well. This may seem a stretch, but I think cycles have expanded. The last 40 week cycle would have been actually 41 weeks (to the late August low), with this last week seeing a 20 week Hurst cycle low (actual 23 weeks), and once the current 20 week Hurst cycle tops out, we are down into mid-summer lows.
cheers,
john
Hi Peter,
I have the low this week as a 10 week low. I place the last 40 week low late August based on internals ($NYSI and momentum low). That puts the next 10 week low as the 20, 40 and 80 week low due likely in April. Price action in Feb. should tell all. I'd like to see the $NYSI go well below zero to confirm the 80 week low is forming. The $NYSI didn't come close to the zero line this week.
cheers,
john
Peter, some are still here but it is not much of a short term trading forum anymore. Here's my latest.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=96486239
I offer my Hurst view periodically, but my health has kept me from contributing more. I haven't see Echo post much either. I'd love to see you and others offer your Hurst view more often. But like many others we just seem to drift in and out.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
Thanks. Glad to be back!
J.M. Hurst and The 4 year Presidential Cycle
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/j-m-hurst-4-year-presidential-cycle/#sthash.VO5Mu3Uf.uNEeYSIr.dpbs
re: $SPX
I will post a short term look in the coming days. I will assume that we will see a 20 week Hurst cycle low here this week. A rally of some kind will continue into Feb. and likely fail by early March. Beware what comes in the March to July period. GLGT.
cheers,
john
J.M. Hurst and The 4 year Presidential Cycle
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/j-m-hurst-4-year-presidential-cycle/#sthash.VO5Mu3Uf.uNEeYSIr.dpbs
re: $SPX
I will post a short term look in the coming days. I will assume that we will see a 20 week Hurst cycle low here this week. A rally of some kind will continue into Feb. and likely fail by early March. Beware what comes in the March to July period. GLGT.
cheers,
john
Re: The 4 year Cycle
Nope not dead yet. I haven't been keeping up with the markets much of late and I haven't wanted to say much in the prediction category until now. I underestimated the bullishness of 2013.
The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.
In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.
[quote"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain][/quote]
The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.
How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.
Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.
Good luck and good trading in 2014!
cheers,
john
PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....
Re: The 4 year Cycle
Nope not dead yet. I haven't been keeping up with the markets much of late and I haven't wanted to say much in the prediction category until now. I underestimated the bullishness of 2013.
The 4 year cycle (ie. approx. 48 months) vanished sometime between 2005 and 2010. The central banks have done a terrific job of distorting the 4 year cycle since that time. I can show you charts dating back to the 50s where a 4 year cycle arrives like clock work. That is not the case today. However, the 4 year cycle does have a way of showing itself, it just hasn't shown up right now as we cycle theorists would expect. Please note that the view I show below is different from a Hurst look. I should also qualify that 1998 and 2009 were 9 year lows per Hurst, and that 2009 was also a 36 year low and likely involved even longer cycles.
In the wisdom of the great Dewey, he believed that when cycles disappear, they will eventually reappear.
[quote"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain][/quote]
The next 4 year cycle is due for a low in July 2014. That's a prediction.
How that low arrives is difficult to call because sometimes as Forrest Gump would say: "My Momma always said ... Life is like a box of chocolates, You never know what you are gonna get". It may be a soft landing or pause before a continuation higher (2006 was a good example), or something more severe.
Once that 4 year low is in, we should see another leg up in this bull.
Good luck and good trading in 2014!
cheers,
john
PS I will slowly try to get back into market analysis this year, slowly ....
hi cracktroop,
The 40 week VTL (valid trend line) was broken (or price crossed to the downside of the VTL) after price bounced weakly off the VTL that second time. This confirmed that the 40 week cycle had topped and that price was likely heading into a 40 week low. Price then found a 40 week low soon after.
VTLs are drawn from the cycle low as the origin and then through the ensuing higher lows. The 80 day (or 10 week) is a good example. A VTL cannot be drawn through two consecutive cycle low points. For example a new 40 week VTL would be drawn from that second 40 week low with a much lower slope that the previous cycle.
As the shorter cycles topped in that Soybean chart for the 40 week cycle, you would note that the 80 day confirmed with a VTL break, then the 20 week and finally the 40 week.
VTL interactions are very important signposts in Hurst analysis. It stands to reason that trend lines are key in technical analysis as well.
I hope that helps.
cheers,
john
HUI Hurst Cycles Analysis
4 year cycle low is in play ...
http://sentienttrader.com/2013/06/4-year-cycle-low-for-gold-miners/
cheers,
john
P.S. Been a while. I did not have a great winter. Much better now.
HUI Hurst Cycles Analysis
4 year cycle low is in play ...
http://sentienttrader.com/2013/06/4-year-cycle-low-for-gold-miners/
cheers,
john
P.S. Been a while. I did not have a great winter. Much better now.
hi NASARAVI,
I must have password protected it by accident on my last edit. It should be visible now.
cheers,
john
Gold's Secular High
http://sentienttrader.com/2013/04/golds-secular-high/
_________________
cheers,
john
Gold's Secular High
http://sentienttrader.com/2013/04/golds-secular-high/
_________________
cheers,
john
hi euterpe1,
With the 4.5 year so right translated and bullish (=long in the tooth), there is no way for me to predict when the next 4.5 year cycle low should arrive. Time wise it is wide open and can occur in the next month or two or drag on into the summer. The green symbols at the bottom of the chart mark when the next nominal 40 week cycle is due (range Jan-Mar) and the orange marks the nominal 4.5 year cycle low which goes all the way out to Sept.
The added problem is we have the strong upward pressure of the new 18 and 36 year cycles working against the 4.5 and 9 year cycles which are trying to get back into sync. By that I mean that the 4.5 and 9 year cycles should have bottomed in 2006/2007 and not in 2009. They will show up again in 2014/2015. So while we could blowoff into May/June 2013 for a major top, we could still be looking for that 4.5 year cycle low after that. So it is a very mixed picture.
Here's an interesting chart and it is curious how Armstrong comes up with these dates that seem to fit with market turns quite often.
N.B. The June 2011 turn was a notable top for stocks and the June 2012 turn was a good bottom for stocks. With Armstrongs charts bottoms can sometimes mark tops and vice versa so polarity is a question mark.
cheers,
john
Update of $SPX Hurst cycles at my Sentient Trader Blog.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/spx-hurst-cycles/
cheers,
john
Update of $SPX Hurst cycles at my Sentient Trader Blog.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/spx-hurst-cycles/
cheers,
john
Update on Precious Metal long term cycles.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/precious-metals-long-term-cycles/
cheers,
john
Update on Precious Metal long term cycles.
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/precious-metals-long-term-cycles/
cheers,
john
hi Kim,
I've been working on a precious metals update. I am bullish gold/silver/platinum and the miners. I have also taken a position in the last while in coffee. I think most commodities are set to rally over the coming months with a falling USD.
cheers,
john
Update of USD index Hurst cycles
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/usd-index-long-term-cycles/
cheers,
john
Update of USD index Hurst cycles
http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading-room/blog/usd-index-long-term-cycles/
cheers,
john