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CIEN thru recent hi near 39.34
MSFT - inverse H & S or cup and handle
AGU - nice EOD buying; might be ready for another leg up
MSFT - possible cup and handle BO - watch 31.26 area;
earnings tomorrow
the gap @ 54.18 would be nice; it could fall all the way to just below 50 and triangle BO would still be intact; last year it bottomed near 25 first week of july and ran to 75 by EOY; it also ran pre-earnings last year
>
very nice
hi gleno. i'm not suggesting a return to 120. if we retraced to 58-65 that would only be half of the bubble heights. after so many people got burnt on big cap tech, i think the sector has been generally shunned. i know many
(particularly some RE clients of mine) that put everything in
tech at the top and held for much of the ride down. now they hate it and will never return. most of them are out of the market now. i agree that earnings and fundamentals need to support the stocks however, i believe that in general, after enron, ox/sab, etc. business balances sheets are cleaner and stronger. have you seen the cash some of the big cap tech holds? many of the big cap techs receive a majority of their
revenues from overseas - thats where the growth is.
more importantly, the rise of capitalism in the developing world has changed dynamics and value metrics. you are witnessing a fierce competition for commodities and stuff to build out emerging market infrastructure - look no further than the 38 billion $ cash bid for alcan. right now premiums are being placed on oil, water, industrial metals etc. maybe the companies that lead in the digital revolution will be next to have a revaluation. all this said, i just follow the charts and money flow. a sector or stock can be overvalued or hyped. i dont care. if it it goes up, i'll make $
CIEN - large cup and handle; currently challenging recent hi @
39.34; next resistance 50 (from 2004)
mcnuggets rap
for the past three years or so the QQQQ has been trading in a parallel channel; in april there was a breakout of the channel
near 45; this breakout also coincides with the resistance left
over from spring 2001; we have been clearly trading above the
parallel channel and could retreat to hi 46s and still maintain;
because of the downdraft early in 2001; the next band of resistance (from late 2000) is in the range of 58 to 65;
for some time the Qs have been driven by AAPL, GOOG and RIMM;
recently however the old school tech is breaking out (INTC,
CSCO); if you have not looked at monthly charts of big tech,
you should; last hi in the Qs saw monthly rsi near 90 - right
now we are @ 70;
markets making new hi s and roaring and it seems 90% are
gloomy; unbelievable that we are seeing record hi s and there is little or no positive coverage; if you surf the investment boards and forums you will not find what you would expect - hi-fives, celebration, optimism; instead the guys that closely watch the market are all predicting tops and licking their short wounds; sad for the guys who trade daily and watch every move to not partake in this boom;
dow is up almost 2000 points just from march and there is a collective yawn; IMO this is the result of a liberal media that only reports negative news and hates pres. bush; if a
dem was in the white house we would see parades on wallst.;
huge opport. here; stocks are like real estate 3 to 4 years ago except the guys in a frenzy to buy are more
discerning and have much more $;
GRMN is another Q stock (approx 1%)
be, look @ the Q composition to see what you are fighting;
AAPL is #1 @ almost 10%; GOOG has moved into 4th position
and RIMM has moved into 9th; now they have added stocks like
FWLT; if you are short the Qs there are so many ways you can get beat; good luck
no correction intended; i love FWLT, wish they would use it
to replace MSFT; heard some complaints that the buyout of BMET was too low; did you see how they handled the FWLT add to the Q? they floated it down from 119.5 to 114.5 yesterday
(apparently to shake loose some shares) let it bounce alittle into the close and then AH a block of 775,000 shares went thru
near 116.5; today - banged up and closed near 121;
the recent triple top BO @ 110.37 measures to 124 area or so;
maybe it will channel between 120-115 for awhile; may be down tomorrow on some disappointment on losing the huge saudi aramco/dow contract to KBR; i also own FLR which also was in the running for aramco K
i like FRO and also own DRYS TNP and EGLE;
DRYS is just plain wild; on days when its running, nothing can stop it but, it can be volatile
greek shipping - DRYS (and today was ex-div)
brazilian water SBS - channel break
re BMET, not exactly weak - da boyz wanted that one for themselves
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070712/biomet_acquisition.html?.v=2
breakouts everywhere like HON - quadtop BO;
looks like a classic ascending triangle BO;
first measurement is approx. 14133;
SLW - 12.5 finally taken out
FCX ramping
took profits in GMCR on the pop
well patterns are just a matter of probabilities - no guarantees; from my perspective iphones are not for mass consumption; i agree they have a more limited audience but oh,
what an audience. RIMM is not exactly cheap and yet it serves
addicts. however, its the overall halo benefit thats in play.
iphone garners attention and like it or not, buy it or not, it
may drive overall sales not to mention strengthening an already strong brand; the stock has some volatility and more news is sure to come; iphone might be gravy.
with all this heat out west Ngas may jump; crude is unbelievable; thot yesterday would be a short term top
dubai - 82 bil spending on aviation; taking delivery of one
jumboliner per month for the next 5 years; oil $ now only 5%
of economy
http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=6515813
hi FQ; i used June triangle - top 127.61 minus bottom 115.40
= 12.21; i used 123 as the triangle break to be conservative
(its actually something slightly less than the 6/29 124 hi)
123 + 12.21 = 135.21 to 136;
also today broke the prior hi (127.61); nice vol near 51mil;
obviously, anything can happen and no pattern is a sure thing; i think 160 is doable;
unless there is a major defect or market crash, the halo affect should be considerable; things were already good before the iphone; we're in the 1st inning w/ iphone; there
could be a myriad of news item drivers, possible split,
int'l growth and more GOOG cooperation, etc. and versions 2, 3
....
earnings 7/25; the market (indexes) as a whole may be frustrating (does feel like an invisible hand of support) so i'm concentrating on individual BOs and short time frames;
BTJ - i took profits today; hope to get back in as BO continues
AAPL - powerful; triangle BO initially measures to 135 area
GMCR coffee
FWLT holding triple top BO; was hoping for dip back below 110;
decent PE and growth (compared to FLR and JEC)
ESRX BO continuing
10 year - monthly BO (even tho mild) is hanging in there
its all about the juice; last week the BO looked like a fake out; trend break going back to 1995 is worth watching; noticed
that mortgage rates did not match the recent rate pullback
hi gleno; BO=breakout
ATK - another low vol BO
ESRX weak vol BO
thats a classic
hi glen, sorry to hear of your loss but glad to hear you are a
believer. you know the only source of true comfort and strength.
also nibbling QID; momos RIMM, BIDU and GOOG look to pullback;
however, AAPL broke triangle flag near 123 and INTC is hanging in there; may use AAPL to offset; took some profits in hi 126s and looking for pullback
PBR - nother new hi
LOL - BIDU i sold this morn, way too early
yeah but we have more pre-holiday trading tomorrow morn.;
i'm attempting to buy in areas that should perform ok even if we have a pullback and maybe add back index shorts for protection