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My theory is that someone is driving the price down so they can accumulate shares on the cheap. I notice the price is right on the rising trendline that started a little over a year ago.
Andy
Kelly thinks its because of the debt transaction that placed 318K shares into hands that wanted to sell immediately. Doesn't really explain it though, 318K shares really isn't that much.
Kelly also said they are pushing for a 10K release before the end of the month. The auditors have the data, its only how long does it take them to complete the process.
Andy
Paul,
Not for CPTC. I know why other companies might be worth more, but this company is a startup company with no earnings.
For the fiscal year ended 9/30/04, revenues totaled $2.5 million, up from $0. Net loss applicable to Common totaled $14.3M, up from $6.8 million.
Not exactly what I would call numbers to justify the price.
So what's their secret?
Andy
I don't pay any attention to what people predict will happen. I study the stock, immerse myself as much as possible in the environment, (just wish I known about the DC show last September) then make a purchase decision. I've purchased VirTra three times, at 32 cents, 40 cents, and now again at 34 cents. When I look back in five years the difference betweeen the purchases will be meaningless.
Predictions are a dime a dozen.
Someone made a prediction on this group for some price much higher than it is now, for the end of last year.
Didn't happen.
What has happened in the last year or so is VirTra has developed a killer product and is now going about the process of marketing and selling that product. Three years ago it was still in development, why anyone would pay any attention to a prediction about a develoment stage company is beyond me.
Now VirTra has revenue, and a product that from everything I can tell will sell very well once critical mass is reached.
Andy
So what happens? Somebody sells 500 shares, driving the price down, so they can then buy more shares for less than the previous price? I see this happen a lot. Price is at 35 cents, someone sells 500 shares, price drops to 34 cents or lower, then a bunch of purchases come in at 34 cents. What I don't get is why the stock price doesn't move up. One would think that if more shares are purchased than sold the price would move up.
Can someone who REALLY understands the BB market explain how it works?
Thanks,
Andy
Thanks to OTC Journal I was able to rationally evaluate VirTra as a candidate for purchase. Just made my third purchase today at 34 cents. I've owned Virtra for a little over three months, and so far is it performing better than many stocks I've held for longer. Now all we need is a nice, large order to kick us out of the range we've been stuck in.
Andy
Who was it that asked if Kelly was a full time CEO? What was the message discussion? I cannot search the list.
Thanks,
Andy
This was NOT the steak...
Kelly,
This is the steak? (RE: General Dalby)
Andy
****
Andy,
Not even close.....
--Kelly Jones
Chart looks good, but....
It can still take awhile to launch. We have a pattern of higher lows stretching back to late October. On the theory that I'm successful when I stick to buying stocks (vs options) and I bought my first installmant on October 29, then VTSI is heading up soon.
Tea leaves, anyone? :o}
By the way, this is message 12,000.
Andy
OK. Do you want a steak or a bone?
I asked Kelly if he could throw us a bone in the form of some guidance with respect to number of units sold in the fourth quarter. No $$ figures, just how many of this and that. I recognize that they cannot release earnings until they are certified, but I figured something along the lines of what I asked for would at least give us some idea of what is happening.
Kelly replied: Have patience, and I'll give you a steak.
He didn't define steak, and he did not qualify patience.
I have to assume he understands the landscape as well as we do. I'm sure he would like to see the PPS rise, if only to ease the pain of conversion for the former debt holders. Nothing like rising values to ensure that they made the right decision. (They did, since they certainly could not collect by forcing the issue)
Andy
That certainly does not answer my question!
Are you a politician? :o}
Private email messages to management
Are there any rules concerning private emails betrween shareholders and management? Can the shareholder share information gleaned from emails, or are we supposed to keep mum? I'm not talking about anything that would run afoul of insider trading rules, just general conversation.
Andy
I asked Kelly if he could give us some guidance on number of units sold last quarter, without a dollar amount. Something to put some heat under the current price, to get it to move up. Don't know if he can do this or not.
I agree. I wish there was some way to flag one-liners with little or no content.
I respectfully disagree...
OTC Journal does not at all act like a pump and dump company. I've been subscribing to them for the last few years, its how I found out about VTSI. I followed their reports, discovered that over time they made their users money, so I honed in on what I considered their best pick: VTSI.
I have no regrets, nor do I have any problem with the publicity VTSI pays for, that harvests more shareholders and interest in the company. I don't for a minute think that 100% of the PPS rise is attributable to OTC Journal, but I'm sure some of it is. I wonder how many on this list found VTSI through the OTC Journal?
They initiated coverage with this issue: http://www.otcjournal.com/archive/listserv/20030715-1.html
Andy
Stock was trading at 6-8 cents just before OTC Journal started coverage. I think they made out pretty good.
Virtra Systems, Inc.
Coverage Period: July 15, 2003 - July 15, 2004
Company Symbol: VTSI
Compensation: MarketByte LLC has been paid a fee of $25,000 in cash and one million newly issued restricted shares by Virtra Systems for coverage of the company.
Meaning of a breakout above a declining trendline
http://www.booktrakker.com/Avocado/VirtraSupport.jpg
In the case of VTSI, there was resistance as measured by the downsloping blue trendline. Notice that when this trendline was broken it was done so with a dramatic increase in volume. Classical technical analysis, as described in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, indicates that for the rally to be validated the price must return to the trendline, bounce off, and maintain upward momentum.
We have all but one of the elements for a successful developing rally. What we are missing is the continuation of the current upward trend, which hopefully will play out over the next few days, weeks and months.
You can see the longer term support at 40 cents going back over a year in this chart: http://www.booktrakker.com/Avocado/Virtra.jpg
I based my second purchase on this chart, although I was aware of the shorter term chart that said the price might go to 37 cents. Since I'm new to VTSI I had not yet gotten a sense of how it trades.
I wish I had an updated version of the program I wote on the Apple II+ in 1982 that would do these trendlines automatically. Triangles, rectangles and other patterns as well. A 1MHz processor and 64KB of memory!
Andy
Some background on trendlines and similar:
Down Trendline
A down trendline has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Down trendlines act as resistance and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the down trendline, the downtrend is considered solid and intact. A break above the down trendline indicates that net-supply is decreasing and a change of trend could be imminent.
The oldest form of interpreting charts is PATTERN ANALYSIS. This method gained popularity through both the writings of Charles Dow and Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, a classic book written on the subject just after World War II. The newer form of interpretation is INDICATOR ANALYSIS, a math-oriented examination in which the basic elements of price and volume are run through a series of calculations in order to predict where price will go next.
Pattern analysis gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat the same bar formations over and over again. These patterns have been categorized over the years as having a bullish or bearish bias. Some well-known ones include HEAD and SHOULDERS, TRIANGLES, RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE BOTTOMS and FLAGS. Also, chart landscape features such as GAPS and TRENDLINES are said to have great significance on the future course of price action.
Indicator analysis uses math calculations to measure the relationship of current price to past price action. Almost all indicators can be categorized as TREND-FOLLOWING or OSCILLATORS. Popular trend-following indicators include MOVING AVERAGES, ON BALANCE VOLUME and MACD. Common oscillators include STOCHASTICS, RSI and RATE OF CHANGE. Trend-following indicators react much more slowly than oscillators. They look deeply into the rear view mirror to locate the future. Oscillators react very quickly to short-term changes in price, flipping back and forth between OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD levels.
Both patterns and indicators measure market psychology. The core of investors and traders that make up the market each day tend to act with a herd mentality as price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to develop known characteristics that repeat themselves over and over again. Chart interpretation using these two important analysis tools uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should eventually translate into price change.
I think this says it all...
http://www.booktrakker.com/Avocado/VirtraSupport.jpg
Andy
Might. Might not.
Last week I put in a buy at 40 cents, knowing there was a possibility that it might trade lower. The long term support for VTSI was at 40 cents, going back over a year. But, short term it broke out of a triangle with the upside support line indicating a possible return to 37 cents.
It was a 50/50 choice. Go with one, go with the other. Perhaps I should have followed my instinct and waited, getting it for 38 cents instead of 40. It did trade down to 37 cents for three days, until Friday, when it started the current move.
But, in 5 years, if its trading at $20 or more, the 2 cents won't matter. I bought my first shares at 32 cents, and it subsequently traded as low as 28.5 cents. Did I get the best possible price? No. Have I made money on the original purchase? YES!
VTSI has traded once today at 39 cents, a sale of 3000 shares. Nobody has been able to buy at 39 cents. You are welcome to try, but you also might lose the stock, if it decides it wants to go up.
Technical analysis says it made its return move to the support line it broke out of, so now its headed UP.
As Kelly puts it: This is MY personal opinion, do not make any decisions based on what I say.
Andy
So what's their secret?
Other than being in a different industry and trading at 3 times the daily volume, (more if you look at $ volume) why does CPTC sell for $5 vs VTSI for 40 cents?
I see! Date of inception was March 28, 2001. My birthday. I should be so honored!
Makes about as much sense as anything I've seen for why stocks move up.
Does someone have a more rational explanation, and if so, how do we apply that to VTSI?
Andy
PPS apprectiation at 10% a month is fine by me..
So far I'm getting 10% a month in price appreciation since I bought VTSI. Keep that up and my $20 in less than 5 years will happen.
I'm happy!
For once I have to agree with Paul.
Andy
You sold against the trend.
The chart of TAYD was in an uptrend. As long as the rising lows were not seriously broken with volume, one can assume the uptrend will continue, which is what TAYD did.
I'm new to VTSI, so I thought the support at 40 cents going back over a year would be sufficient, but VTSI ignored the long term support and focused on the short term triangle pattern that developed just before the stock took off. So far the move down to 37 cents was predictable, it will be fun to watch this stock going forward to see if this downslope trend line holds.
I'm not going to kick myself too hard. Buying at 40 cents vs 37 isn't going to make much difference when it trades at $20 in a few years.
Andy
Not much luck involved.
Technical analysis said it would fall to .395-.400 before moving up again. So I just put in my bid last week when it was .42-.43 and waited. It might even drop lower for a short time, the signature of VTSI is it does the unexpected. It breaks the pattern, but still executes as one would expect. That's how I got my first shares at .32.
Andy
Got my price! Put in a limit order at .40 and waited...
Andy - A happy shareholder of VTSI. I'm looking for a $20 stock within 5 years.
I'm trying for .40. I'll wait.
I did .32 the last time, when it didn't look like it was going there again. Not much chance of VTSI doing much between today and the end of the year, so getting in again at 40 cents seems likely. I've learned patience.
Andy
I think this is a better reason for support
at 40 cents: http://www.booktrakker.com/Avocado/Virtra.jpg
Front and Center! Bang! I'm hit!!!
Where'd it come from?
These units from Lockheed/FATS are EXPENSIVE. Sure, they fit in a tractor trailer box, for mobility, but what need has the army for mobility? They use this on two bases. Two units.
Training using the VCCT is 100% what is in front and front/side of you, as if there were no threats from behind.
This contract was awarded in June, 2003, well before VTSI had a comparable product. Now we do, and I bet its a LOT cheaper than the VCCT, thus generating more revenue for VTSI and a better deal for the military. As well as countries outside the US that cannot afford expensive Lockheed technology.
I'm looking forward to the future. I'm even going to buy some more stock. Nothing like putting your money where your mouth is.
Andy
Make my day!!!
http://www.booktrakker.com/Avocado/Virtra.jpg
An upside breakout of resistance going back almost 14 months, with 3 previous, but failed attempts.
Andy
Read the 10QSB reports for deliveries...
Third Quarter:
Revenue for the period consisted of a) $326,819 for the training/simulation market, primarily of monies received for two IVR HD-300 training simulators recently delivered to the United States Army and the United States Air Force, and initial preparation of the multi-system sale to Mexico, and b) $12,501 for the advertising/promotional market, primarily of monies received from Schwans/Red Baron Pizza for the Red Baron museum and warranty for the Red Baron promotional system.
Second Quarter:
$234,952 for the training/simulation market, primarily of monies received for two IVR-300 HD training simulators recently delivered to Vera Cruz, Mexico and the United States Air Force, and b) $128,041 for the advertising/promotional market, primarily of monies received from Buick for the recently-delivered Immersa-Dome system.
First Quarter:
We had total revenue of $296,878 for the three months ended March 31, 2004, compared to $361,746 for the corresponding three months of 2003. Our revenue is now broken down in our statement of operations into our two markets, training/simulation and advertising/promotion. Revenue for the period consisted primarily of monies received for our recent IVR-300 HD training simulator deliveries to Mexico, the Black Hawk helicopter recruitment project for the United States Army, from Schwan’s (Red Baron™ Pizza) for a promotional experience at its new flight museum, and from our recent project for Bombardier’s Sea-Doo division.
How did a spammer get on this list?
Which is why I didn't answer....
What's the point? You can lead the horse to water, you can push the horse's head into the water, but you still cannot make it drink.
Andy - to whom the technology advantage of VTSI over everyone else is obvious, so obvious it needs no explanation.
Patience.....This takes time....
FATS has been doing this for a LOT longer than VTSI.
FATS delivered first generation virtual training solutions to the United Kingdom MOD between 1992 and 1994. Since then, the company has provided continuous service support and a series of upgrades and improvements.
But notice what they bought....
This contract will deliver more than 35 single and dual-screen DCCTs. Each system supports the training of five to 10 soldiers simultaneously. Simulated training uses a variety of technology including digital imagery, digital video and computer generated imagery that train soldiers in basic to advanced marksmanship and small unit tactical training.
Its only a matter of time before the word gets out about the superior technology VTSI has. But it does take time. I would not expect much of an inroad into this market for at least another couple of years. VTSI needs continuity before many customers of FATS and the like will switch.
Andy
Sure wish my world was always in front...
Life would certainly be a lot easier if all I ever had to worry about was in front of me all the time. Have you ever been hit from behind in your car? Do you ignore the ambulance coming from behind since it cannot possibly exist, it isn't in front of you?
I'd lik to see the battlefield where ALL the action is always in front. Can you tell me where that is?
Andy
Everyone is facing towards the front...
I guess in FATS' world nobody shoots from behind.
Anybody know how Virtra managed to locate so well?
http://www.iitsec.org/documents/IITSEC04Floorplan112904.pdf
Eat lunch, leave lunch room, walk into Virtra exhibit. Everybody eats lunch.
Does Virtra face the lunch room?
Andy
High of 47 cents, close of 44.
Who is doing all the buying of FATS?
Looking at the transactions for FATS almost leads me to believe that someone is buying small lots on a steady basis, thus driving the price up. I see the same four letter MM's for the FATS transactions as I see for VTSI. The difference is there are far fewer smaller trades pushing up VTSI stock.
What am I missing here? As of 13:48:18 there were 1215 trades in FATS stock, vs 74 for VTSI for the same period.
Andy
Then why don't you listen and stop talking?
Paul,
People answer your questions, then you come back with some idiot comment. You asked why VTSI might do better than FATS and others, and plenty of people have answered you. But because they did not say what you wanted to hear, you blow them off. So why bother asking in the first place?
Sounds to me like you have already drawn a conclusion before getting the facts. Are you a Young Earth Creationist by any chance?
Andy
I can't believe I'm reading this.....