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This all seems so surreal given the progress that was being made in the courts this past month. I mean, so many documents being released showing Obama administration's wrong doing. Both commons and preferreds being bought like crazy, now this. Doesn't this seem strange to anyone else? Something is just out of sync.
That won't happen today though.
Sorry that is pretty much impossible unless Mnuchin comes out and makes very bullish statements, you know how much volume is needed for that? MMs have no reason to bring it up to the open price unless Mnuchin forces them to.
33% drop?
What was good about the court decision? It looks to me that Mnuchin is our only hope.
This will be largest volume day, maybe ever at current rate. 250k volume a minute, will probably close 80+ million volume. Someone had to be buying on the way down right? Who? Robots? Or was it a conscious effort?
Did this just come up? I can't read this all and understand it, was this the document the market reacted to or is this new?
So is the court battle done with? We lost it?
Can someone summarize what just happened?
I just got on and can't make sense of this stuff fast enough. So did we lose in the courts completely?
Lol sorry if I offended you for no reason!
Where did I say I supported bailing out big corporations or even blame blacks for anything? You missed my point or maybe I didn't make it clear enough. I was using the poor black communities as examples of how an upper class can manipulate and control a lower class, forcing them to support them even if they are the cause of their poverty.
Impoverished black communities are forced to vote Democrat or for any socialist candidate advocating for increased welfare distribution because these communities have no valuable employment skills and nobody is willing to invest in them. If they vote for a candidate advocating for capitalism and a competitive free market to bring jobs to the neighbourhood they risk losing out on some welfare to other people who have more job skills, ending up in a worse condition, at least temporarily.
And so you have a scenario where the lower class will always and unanimously vote to give as much money and power to the ruling class so that they can redistribute it, even if it means getting screwed by them from time to time.
Thanks, good links.
Isn't there a date where funds from the last budget "run out"? And there is still the time needed to approve the budget.
Is there a deadline for the 2018 budget or is that just when it usually comes out?
This is why I don't feel comfortable selling this at any time even if it looks like it is headed down for a bit. If we get news or someone learns something, it will go up and I will be kicking myself for the few cents I made here and there.
Right, it seems like stopping the NWS is mandatory, especially if the administration has repeatedly said that getting FnF out of government control is necessary. There is just no other way of getting past this.
In my opinion we are seeing a dely in that Mnuchin probably wants to end NWS while laying out the rest of his plan for FnF. Just announcing the end of the NWS without saying much else seems like a very incomplete thing to do since the ending of the NWS implies an end to conservatorship. He will need to end NWS with a plan laid out for FnF to guide the discussion involving FnF going forward. Or else we end up with an Obamacare scenario where everything devolves into chaos with 50 different replacement options and zero consensus about what to do.
Mnuchin can't give time for a million options to be speculated on, which gives time for people to weigh things differently. He needs to come out swiftly, with a complete and reasonable plan to, if not persuade everyone, at least guide everyone's discussion on the FnF.
Worst thing that can happen is if he ends NWS with no plan laid out, then everyone starts speculating and forming their own opinions on what the best steps going forward are and we get locked in a standstill where a conclusion could take a long time to come to.
You have far more power when you have a ruling class that portions out money to the many poor. They still have to buy your stuff, but now they have no means of class mobility and they rely on you to give them money so they don't revolt.
It's why blacks overwhelmingly vote Democrat despite seeing only negative results in their neighbourhoods. They rely on a government to hand out welfare and subsidies after it robbed them of a community that would enable them to acquire skills to move up in class.
The elite class is already on top, the best way they can stay there is to create monopolies by creating stifling innovation through heavy regulation and inhibit the acquisition of capital.
This isn't even necessarily malicious, but good business. I talk to smaller companies with under $100 million in profits a year and they say the only way for them to compete is by innovating since smaller businesses are more "nimble" and can innovate faster than larger businesses.
In any case, hoarding wealth at the top and redistributing it in a controlled environment where you control what most of people's budget looks like, is the ultimate goal and best way to rule. Any revolt results in a collapse of the money distribution system.
Excellent post. Killing the middle class has been the objective of the "elites" for decades, and it has been working.
So we have no timeline now. Many thought that today would be big since the earnings report would give heavy indication as to the status of the conservatorship. There may be some clues here and there, but ultimately we are left with no date where we can expect a movement. Could be next week, could be a few weeks from now before any more news or action comes out.
Watt comes across as the type of guy that lucked out getting to the position by just riding on the back of other people.
How is it evidence of manipulation? I think I get it, the drop in price was too great for such low shirt volume? Explain a bit more?
No, but it still is significant with so much talk of ending the NWS, not to mention Freddie's language change. Just not good reporting is all I am saying. He could be right, but there is a big elephant that he is ignoring and should at least address.
The primary source was the ER, which said it expected to make the dividends payment, rather than it will as the reporter mentions.
This is why you need to look at primary sources. He is misinterpreting the expected payment with a definite payment. I mean they could go through, but he isn't thinking about that
Are earnings out yet?
Been waiting for it to happen for months before buying.
Can you summarize I can't watch now.
I agree, the only situation that could happen is in a short squeeze scenario. With the strong momentum up, and so many people having delusional expectations of share price it could happen, MMs could shoot price up way higher to take advantage of the hysteria and sell-out/distribute their shares, and then crash it down to what it's actually worth. Alternatively, that could be exactly what prevents it from hitting a really big high, hundreds of millions of shares across FnF shares, and they would put too high of a selling pressure and quickly bring down price if it hit too high of a price, as they wouldn't want to miss out on it.
Either way, MMs will want to shoot this price as high as possible, but it's not really conducive to a huge $100 spike. What's more realistic is we see a slow building overvaluation for a few months. No way it can get into the $100s with whales having so much of their position to liquidate.
I calculated 4.85 with my calculation
Is FMCC EPS of 0.05 and PE of 80 bad news?
You know what I mean lol
I'm telling you, 1984, is an instruction manual. It is by far one of the best books to ever be written. If only Orwell wrote in a better ending or an instruction manual for the people.
There are already no more buyers, look at the volume. Have you seen a single big block purchase today?
Volume in FNMAS is approaching FNMA more and more each day. However it doesn't look like whales dumped commons, not enough volume or price drop, just that they started buying up preferreds. Still makes me wish I picked up some FNMAS when they were in the $8 range. Probably not headed down any time soon. Either way, I'm hoping NWS brings them both up. Commons still have more room to climb in that event. Only have to hit $12-15 to outperform what ever you might get from preferreds in the ideal scenario.
The system is always rigged. If you're not playing with that understanding you can't win.
Not sure, but I'm going in on Fannie just in case, don't see much reason not to since their % increase will likely be the same.
Based on their liquidation price
Will this affect commons? I'm pretty adamant about keeping them, but getting kind of annoyed at this point, preferred have maybe room to double at this point, whereas as commons will triple at just $12.
That might be why Trump swore him in 30 minutes after the vote and started talking about how Mnuchin will work "24 hours a day if he needs to, 28, if you gave him the 4 hours" implying that he is going to be rushing his ass off to get stuff done. Remember though that Mnuchin probably isn't the limiting factor here.
Told by who?