Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Has anyone entertained the possibility that the market thinks this stock is a good investment, thus the positive purchasing of the stock, causing it to move higher? Maybe word is getting out that there is a solidly profitable pink sheet stock that is undervalued and growing like crazy.
All these hires can only mean there is a lot more business in the pipeline, even if we do not know anything about it. I don't see Bob hiring people for the fun of it. Say what you want about his communication skills, his ability to grow the company has never been in doubt. Just look at where Virtra was when he took over compared to today.
Andy
Viral Marketing?
http://santamariatimes.com/news/local/military/vandenberg/new-training-tool-puts-airmen-in-harm-s-way/article_dda58dd4-5875-11e1-9ef6-001871e3ce6c.html
"In October, Vandenberg became the first active-duty base to get the simulator, but others have contacted Oliver for details since the self-described nerd began touting the system’s capabilities."
I'm interpreting this to mean that Staff Sgt. Andrew Oliver, a combat arms instructor who has been at Vandenberg since June 2010, is promoting this to other Air Force bases around the country.
Anybody know of any way to verify this?
Andy
You got that right. Its the vain hope that somehow they will pull a rabbit out of the hat and really become an American success story, with a skyrocketing price to follow. Virtra is a very easy company to get emotional about, and for a lot of people that's what it's all about. Which is why most don't make money in the stock market.
I routinely buy and sell books online where I make 500% to 1000% profits, but I'm unable to do that in the stock market. I don't get emotional about books.
Andy
That's what I'm thinking. You don't do all this hiring if you are a failing company. So there must be something going on that they are not telling us about.
Most companies that hire more people do so because they perceive a need for more people because of expanding sales or prospective sales.
Perhaps they got some message at one of the shows or private communications from the military? I don't see these new hires relating to law enforcement.
Andy
On vacation, or business?
I asked Bob about the website problem, got this reply:
I am out of the country at this time, returning on January 19th, 2012. I will be checking email daily.
Andy
Substitute Virtra for San Gold
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip390362
Think Virtra and a different industry and what Bill Harris says makes perfect sense. I sent this to Bob and Rudy as well.
Maybe they can hear and understand it?
Andy
PS: San Gold is an interesting gold stock, but a H & S pattern from a year ago and more says it goes to at least a dollar a share or lower, so don't jump in now. Like Virtra I've followed them for many years. Made money on it, sold too soon, now watching it fall, fall, fall. I like Virtra's prospects a lot more.
When Rudy called me last week he said the same thing. They looked at VTSI in 2007 but didn't like what they saw. So they put it on a watch list, and watched.
VTSI today is a far different proposition from what it was in 2007.
Today they have multiple lines of revenue that are expanding, not just dependence on one product. They are debt free and no longer have to sell stock for nothing to raise money. And they are solidly profitable.
They are sort of in the start-up phase of a prospective IPO where they have developed their market and are ready to take off. So apparently Rudy sees this and decides to do something he's never done: Take on a pink sheet stock.
Why would he do this now? They clearly have other, larger companies to play with, why a piddling pink sheek selection? What does Rudy know going forward that has him convinced he can make a great deal of money on this investment?
I'm thinking some very large multi-year contracts are in the offing. They are hiring like mad and I suspect they have been out for long enough to really get some traction with the various branches of the military as well as law enforcement.
If their simulators are so much more efficient and cheaper, why not a wholesale replacement of some other competitor's product?
Andy
That's what I think all this new hiring is about. Think back to last year when they started hiring for Gander.
I'm suspecting a big military contract. They've been out for long enough for even the military to realize how much more cost and training effective Virtra is vs the competition.
Andy
Yes. Virtra needs a lot more shareholders than it has, and also needs a lot more exposure in the investment community as a whole. Getting audited is one step closer to that goal.
I'm thinking they also need to plan on a reverse split so the price can show up on more investment radars. Pink sheet is all but invisible at 9 cents a share. What I don't know is its visibility at a dollar or more. It may just be we wait for an uplist before we get more eyeballs.
Andy
Did anyone happen to notice that Bob is an engineer, not a business manager. Very few engineers are management capable. Bob knows this, and once the company got on a stronger foundation he started looking for a solution. His lack of knowledge of this subject showed up in the RS fiasco earlier in the year and the hiring of Don Andrus.
Since then he seems to have figured this out. Now he is hiring people much better suited to what Virtra does. The key hire was Hinnant, someone with a track record of success, and familiar with the industry as well.
And now we have the Miller Group. The Miller Group is not interested in ho-hum companies. In fact I'm taken aback by their interest in Virtra, seeing as how its just a pink sheet stock. What do they know or understand that isn't obvious to us?
We need to look forward, not past. Whatever happened in the past happened, and there isn't anything anyone can do about it. The future is all that matters.
Do we have a team that can deal with the future?
Andy
My impression of my conversation with Rudy Miller was that he was going to push for audited financials ASAP. Clearly this has to wait until the end of the year, no point in doing it twice.
I think he would have made this clear to Bob before signing on.
Andy
Fibonacci looks good, whether you do it from the closing low of October 11 or the low for October 12.
From the closing low of October 11 to the closing high of November 17 to the closing low of November 23 is a 61.8% retracement of the rise from October 11 to November 17.
If you measure from the low of October 12 to the high of November 17 to the low of November 23 its a 50% retracement of the rise from October 12 to November 17.
Elliott Wave analysis (assuming I'm doing this correctly) argues that we had wave 1 up on November 17, wave 2 down on November 23, and are in wave 3 up. 16 cents, anyone?
I would say we have the best positive news picture about Virtra that we've seen in the last 10 years or so.
They are making money, hiring like mad, bringing on people who can grow the company, heading for better financials and an uplist, etc.
Andy
I know. We are placing my mother in an Emeritus facility late this month or early January. ESC. Can't see that they have made any profit the last few years, yet they have a market cap of $700 million.
Andy
I think a good part of the problem for new investors is the low price and EPS published as .0078/share. I wonder how many people today can comprehend .0078?
Do a 1 for 15 reverse split and now you have PPS of $1.20 with EPS .11/share. Easy to figure out the PE ratio, and although $1.20 isn't $50 if you look a lot of long term charts of successful companies you can see they started out that low after all the splits.
And of course getting the price above a dollar is one step towards an uplisting.
Andy
Bob wants to make oodles of money on his investment in Virtra. That means PPS going up 1000% or more. Preferably much higher.
He won't get that selling the company today.
If they can get only a small piece of what FATS has done the price will take off!
Andy
Virtra needs more exposure to the investment community.
After years of losing money Virtra has started making money. Since they had to sell so many shares at a deeply discounted price the EPS is not going to amount to much when they do make money. They need to do a smaller RS so that EPS actually looks like something when its reported, as well as getting the PPS to a price that allows uplisting.
Now they have money from earnings to expand. No more desperate stock offerings to raise funds. Virtra is a company in transition. They have spent the last couple of years building infrastructure to support a much larger operation. That costs.
With the recent hire of Hinnant plus others, and the contract with the Miller Group I see nothing but a bright future going forward.
And as someone pointed out earlier, the competition has sold 5200 simulators to date which if I'm understanding them correctly do not do as good a job of training as does Virtra's models.
Now its just a case of convincing the market that Virtra is much more cost effective and way more realistic, and that Virtra has the resources to produce inventory at will.
All these new hires are pointing towards higher sustained sales as well as the possibility of a blockbuster contract with someone.
I think its only a matter of time before growth in earnings follows growth in sales.
JMO
Andy
Rudy Miller just called me in response to an email asking them what they will do for shareholders and Virtra. First time IR has called me in response to an email.
http://www.themillergroup.net/miller-professionals.php
There is hope for Virtra yet. I'm cautiously optimistic that they will give it the push to get them onto the NASDAQ as well as certified financials.
Only wish I could buy more right now!
Andy
I'm cautiously optimistic that after 7 years I'm finally going to make a bundle on this stock. Everything seems to be in play for a very successful company, all we need now is more shareholders buying the stock. Looks like that might even be happening now.
I asked Bob and Steve if they could promote the company with handouts on the simulators. Never got an answer, but one can only hope.
Who better than users for new shareholders?
Andy
Maybe we should tell them about Virtra?
http://armed-services.senate.gov/members.htm
Andy
Don't see how they can uplist to anywhere at 9 cents a share. Pointless to do OTCBB, it just costs extra money with no more exposure. A 1 for 15 split would get the price above a dollar, with a little over 10 million shares outstanding. Enough to trade OK? Certainly enough to drive the price down some more.
What they really need is sales that grow like crazy, with earnings to follow. Then the market could do it for them.
And the audit won't happen until next year. They have to close the books first.
Andy
Buying in anticipation of good news? Could be someone expected a blockbuster third quarter, or something else. Or maybe in increase in new shareholders? Word is getting out?
I asked Bob and Steve for a PR explaining the results in more detail, especially the "Other revenue" number, which is growing faster than New sales.
Other revenue by quarter, as a percent of Total sales:
1st quarter: 8%
2nd quarter: 33%
3rd quarter: 31%
A third of revenue is Other. Its growing far faster than new sales. What is the future for "Other" revenue?
Andy
Then the shareholders who have money to burn should be buying in small lots to get the price up if a buyout happens.
Don't look at me.
I noticed some idiot bought 400 sahres at the market on the opening, price went to 9 cents. Felt good for a few minutes.
Andy
I asked Bob and Steve if they were allowed to post a folded investment brochure about Virtra with the Gander Mountain and other installations. Who better to invest in the company than their customers?
Does anyone know of any legal reasons why they would not be allowed to do that?
Andy
They sent it to me. I've been on their email list for more years than I can remember. I've not been in this stock as long as some but I do remember when it sold for 42 cents a share. I owned it then and didn't sell.
Like most small investors I do this more for emotional reasons than economic, although we all hope the economic works out.
Andy
Dear Fellow Shareholders,
It is my sincere pleasure to announce the addition of Mr. John Hinnant to the VirTra team. In my opinion, Mr. Hinnant is one of the best experts in the world at securing large government contract awards and I firmly believe that this day marks a significant turning point for our company’s future growth.
As many of you know, VirTra has devoted itself to creating the best training simulators in the world, while providing the best value for our customers. We now have nearly a decade of proven experience delivering industry-leading simulators, while supporting a wide range of clients throughout the world. We have refined our products, expanded our staff, improved our support, and moved into a new facility in preparation for larger orders.
While our sales have risen year after year for many years now, the larger government contracts have eluded us. Larger government sales have the power to significantly and fundamentally expand the value of our business. We need to be in front of the right customer at the right time and Mr. Hinnant is an expert at accomplishing just that. VirTra represents better training at lower costs, so our timing is ideal with the government reducing spending while wanting increased effectiveness.
When you combine the significant product advantages developed by VirTra with the impressive and proven track record of Mr. Hinnant, it is easy to understand why we are so excited about the future of our company. In addition, Mr. Hinnant and VirTra share the same desire for excellence, he is an ideal fit for our vision.
I am also pleased to report that Aaron DeCorte, our new VP of sales, and his team were able to take approximately $1.5 million in sales for September and improve that to $2 million through working harder and smarter. It is already obvious that Mr. Hinnant is the perfect complement to Mr. DeCorte; they have become quick friends, strong allies and are forming an exciting team. They are an explosive and powerful combination!
Meanwhile, the VirTra staff is hard at work - preparing for our busiest tradeshow season in the company’s history. In fact, as I write this letter, VirTra is exhibiting (for the first time) at the largest Army show in the world - AUSA. It is yet another reminder that VirTra has just begun to scratch the surface of new markets and potential customers.
It is my personal belief that hiring the very best personnel ensures the brightest future for VirTra. Today is a very bright day indeed.
Sincerely,
Bob Ferris
CEO and President
VirTra Systems
So what should Bob be reporting on the the world that might raise the share price?
Andy
What would you like Bob to talk about?
Keeping in mind that there are some areas he cannot or should not go. What can he tell us based on what other companies do?
Andy
Anyone seen this before?
http://virtra.com/news/on-the-road-warranty-service-with-virtra.html
or:
http://virtra.com/news/on-the-set-of-a-scenario.html
Andy
I really like your 'tell the story' idea! Great for someone new to VirTra.
Excellent idea!
Also, I'll seek some outside advice regarding better IR. I'm certainly not an expert at everything.
HR and BOD and IR expert may not like the idea of posting reasons behind every position we hire.
Still, some good thoughts.
Thanks,
Bob
Expect changes soon, I hope. I've been emailing Bob and really pounding on him to start telling the Virtra story and I think I finally have gotten his attention.
It did help when I pointed out he lost $56K on paper the other day.
We shall see.
There is lots they can talk about without giving away any state secrets.
Andy
Attractive to whom?
Does anyone other than the forum members know about Virtra?
Andy
This is all well and good, but....
Virtra can go right on making money 'till the cows come home but if nobody outside the small group of shareholders knows about it how can the PPS go up?
I believe ALL of us are invested in Virtra to see higher prices, not just belonging to a group to discuss the company and its prospects.
I'd rather see Virtra do something more proactive to push up the price, perhaps a 20 for 1 split in combination with a limited buyback, as cash permits. The seem to be able to maintain a cash balance of $500K, quarter to quarter, so it would appear they could spend under $100K per month to buy back some shares. Not at market prices, but limit orders just like we do.
Andy
Would an announced buyback have any real effect?
Suppose the company announced a buyback of 1 million shares a month. Would it have any effect on the price of the stock, beyond nudging it up a little, and reducing the outstanding number of shares?
Andy
Every simulator they sell now almost always generates these secondary orders for supplies. After awhile they add up to real money.
Andy
And just how do we get to an uplist? I believe the absolute minimum requirement is trading at over one dollar per share for some period of time. (There are other requirements as well but price is paramount)
Any ideas on how we get to a dollar a share? And stay there with the current crop of shareholders?
Andy
Bob wants ideas. Do you have any, or just criticism?
Andy
Management needs to get the word out about VTSI to investors.
I asked Bob about this and he replied:
"When someone says 'we need to get the word out about VirTra', what they really want is lots of new people to buy and hold the stock - what they really want is just a higher stock price, which I completely understand. I am frustrated and impacted more than others with any fall of our stock price.
From previous experience, I know what sounds really good but does NOT work - giving money or stock to a 'stock promoter' with the hope they will produce higher stock prices into the future, with no downsides or net loss in the deal. I know for me and most, that I listen to my friends and family about a stock far more than I'm ever influenced by a mass market promotional
program - regardless of how much the company paid for the campaign.
I'm always open to ways to improve and want to make the right choice. We remain committed to justify and stimulate appreciation of our stock price through the most legitimate and most effective means possible."
I wrote back the following:
There are really two separate issues here:
1. Getting the price to go up. Easiest, and what most will suggest, is a buyback by the company, say 1 million shares a month. I'm not sure what would happen if the company bought in every so often at market prices or higher. And of course doing this ties up cash. I don't know if you really want to do that, you might need it later. Get a bunch of orders from GM and
that cash might come in handy. I don't know what you need to have on hand, its been so long since you had any.
2. Getting more shareholders. This is the long term solution. I'm thinking I will qualify your reply by seeking more shareholders and how can you do that?
*****
So the question is how can the company promote increased ownership of the stock without paying some promoter to promote it?
Andy
After all these years we all should have learned that P/R's announcing sales or blow-out Financials do very little or next to nothing to move the PPS
So if Lockheed ordered 100 simulators you don't think such an announcement would have ANY material effect on the PPS because its on the pink sheets?
Let's see. The last time Lockheed entered the picture the PPS went from 4 cents to 14 cents in a month.
Andy
This reminds me of our move from Charlottesville city out to the county. We had to not only reregister the car with the county but also notify the city that we had moved so they would not charge personal property tax on the car. It never occurred to us that we had to do this. We figured the DMV computer would handle it.
Easy to overlook in a move.
Expecting perfection from a company as small as Virtra is unrealistic, especially when you see the stupid mistakes far larger companies make.
Andy