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Doc,
Thank you.
Bio
But how accepted/valid is the method? I can’t find a critique.
Wei-Lachin, apologies.
Doc, thanks for this. I’ve been trying to parse out the statistics. Do you have any views on the validity of the Wei-Lanchin analysis?
The Farlow article, pp. 566-567, discusses the statistics generated by the Wei and Lachin method and trend analyses. Good results. No one cares.
Alkon
Interesting talk; thank you for the link. There is unlimited money out there for well-founded novel compounds. Why hasn’t anyone partnered with neurotrope?
Lilly’s scientists are as good as anyone in the world. Why aren’t they believers?
Golden cross.
Did it occur?
Conferences
They are getting the message out, so people will be paying attention to the results.
We will be way up or way down.
Thanks
Are the p-values you quote two-tailed or one-tailed?
It is a valid question: why no progress on ms or fragile x? It is possible everyone is waiting for AD, which makes this trial totally binary - hero or zero. If they could at least start ms and fragile x, there would be a floor.
Avxl’s worthlessness is evidenced by the many postings about it on this board.
In three months, or so, Neurotrope will be a hero or a zero. Good trial results and real institutions will come in; they will be able to do BD. Bad or so-so results and it will sell below cash.
I think the trial will be a success, but in not much time we will find out.
Public comment by company
Is anything scheduled by the company where they will talk about the quarter?
Agree with all the posts. The issue is that if we had a bd deal for fragile x with another corporate entity, even if back-end loaded, the AD trial would be less of a binary event. Right now it all depends on the trial.
There are a lot of other indications than AD. Why hasn’t there been an MS deal developmental deal or fragile X? It makes me question my analysis of the data.
Antti,
I agree with you. My one issue with the company is: why haven’t they been able to do a business deal with anybody. This makes me question my own analysis.
Alzheimer’s twice as prevalent as thought.
Dr Cliff Jack, the Alexander Family Professor of Alzheimer's Disease Research at The Mayo Clinic, said: “The prevalence of Alzhiemer’s Disease are all based on clinical assessment. They’re just based on the question ‘do you have dementia?’
“But as a general rule the prevalence of amyloid and tau as denoted by biomarkers is about two times higher than the prevalence classically defined Alzheimer’s disease.
The market is bigger than thought.
Trend analysis
I did a reread of the Journal Alzheimer’s disease:
J Alzheimers Dis. 2018;1-16. doi: 10.3233/JAD-180759
The trend analysis is compelling.
Placebo based trials on way out?
In the twilight zone maybe.
Third party validation
Any third party validation and the company will be off and running.
Fragile X
I just looked at clinical trials.gov. No listing for fragile x and bryostatin. Any idea of the timing of the start of the trial?
The question is what are the odds the trial succeeds. I think it will, but high risk
Statistical power
What impact on statistics is the increase in N from 100 to 108? Has to be positive, but how positive?
One of the figures in the journal article had colored lines representing patients. I tried to deduce from the lines.
Weren’t the three top performers on placebo? Maybe I am misremembering. Given the variability in Alzheimer’s patients that may not have significance, but it’s the one thing in the data that gives me pause.
If the Ntrp trial works, technical issues like supply will be meaningless.
Sabbagh and Farlow
I wonder who they consult for. They could be helpful in neurotrope getting a strategic relationship.
Significant
They’re on the SAB, and they have seen all available data. They also know what else us being developed. Thank
They’re optimism is significant.
Both JPMorgan experts
Are on NTRP’s SAB. Only two experts are on the panel. Hopefully they talk about bryostatin.
Institutional
With the journal article one would think institutional holders would have increased. They decreased by about 50,000 shares. Trial results will be key.
Binary?
To what extent is the company in a binary position- AZ trial works, we are off to races; AZ trial fails, penny stock status. It seems either the mechanism works, in which case all indications should work, or it doesn’t.
Stroke, traumatic brain injury.
I’m researching the company’s non-Alzheimer’s areas of promise. In the journal Stroke, 2013, is an article titled Bryostatin improves survival...after ischemic stroke. Daniel Hanley on the SAB has been an editor of Stroke and specializes in brain injury. I wonder if traumatic brain injury rather than MS is their next area after Alzheimer’s and fragile x.
Technically, finally, there has been a turn.
Quarterly call
The quarterly call might enlighten us on the significance of this if any and also on plans for the monies raised.
Bryologs and Pufa derivatives
Does neurotrope have exclusive rights to bryologs in all areas? If so then maybe today’s announcement has some weight.
Walking it up, surprisingly.
I wish there was not such a dearth of information from the company.
Timing
The company has the money to expand its horizons. Have they indicated next steps? Not my knowledge.
I am curious when all the academic work on bryostatin will be put to work.
Last patient finishes, then they have to review and scrub the blinded data. Then they unblind, analyze and present. After the last trial data ruckus, they won’t rush it out.
Timing of release of trial results?
15 weeks from dosing until last observation, 4-8 weeks to scrub data and process. Assuming last patient dosed March 1, data would be released maybe sometime in September. Is that reasonable?