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Good information I came about was GDX always has a turning point when vol reaches at least 70m shares preferably up to over 100m, about 2 or more times the normal volume, so at these lows that turning point should be to the upside until the next big volume day. It seems that this is when the big traders are participating during those days, institutions and funds are either selling or buying depending on which way the price ends up for the day.
End of 1st selloff after peak in aug 2011 was on oct 4.
End of 2nd selloff of 2011 was dec 30.
End of 2012 lows was june 28.
End of rally in 2012 was oct 4.
End of selloff 2013 was june 27
? oct 3-4
well before Aug 7, this guy wrote that goldminers would bottom Aug 6-7 and it did, this is what he says now,
A Few Things Need to Happen Before Gold Rallies
A lot of investors want to know why I am not screaming from the rooftops, “Buy gold!”
The reason is simple: I am not 100 percent confident that the bottom is in.
Why is that, especially when all is not well with the world?
After all, in addition to the Syrian crisis, which is not over, tensions are rising dramatically between the United States and Russia.
North Korea is reactivating its plutonium reactor. The Fed, even if it tapers its bond buying this week, is still printing oodles of money. The budget ceiling war is about to go into overdrive and heated debate again.
And interest rates are rising, a sure-fire sign that inflation will be coming back.
My answer is simple: It’s not yet time for gold and silver to take off to the upside. Quite the contrary, they have more work to do on the downside.
Look, every market has its time and place in the sun. That’s why timing is so critically important. You can be 100 percent right on the direction of a market, but you will not make money if you don’t get your timing right.
The pause in gold and silver’s long-term
bull markets is not yet over.
In contrast to important tops in any market, important bottoms take time to complete. That’s especially true with the precious metals.
Gold and silver have backing and filling to do. They have a lot of investors they still need to chew up and spit out. They will not bottom until most investors have turned outright bearish on them.
That’s one of the reasons why gold and silver took a nice nose-dive last week, precisely in accordance with what my cycle work was telling me. You can see the forecasted decline in this chart I’ve shown you previously.
And according to all of my indicators, as I have mentioned before, gold and silver needed a one- to three-year correction from their 2011 highs.
So far, we have a two-year correction in place. And so far, gold, which is my barometer for both metals, has fallen to as low as $1,178.
But importantly, that low did not precisely hit long-term support levels, which stood a bit lower at the $1,150 level.
For a market to bottom, it must hit long-term support at the right time. When price and time converge together, you have an important bottom. And though gold came very close to doing that in June, it was not close enough.
There are two more cyclical time
targets for a bottom in gold.
One is this month, shown by the cyclical chart above. If gold can break the June $1,178 low by October 3, at the latest, I will be screaming from the rooftops that the bottom is in place.
But if gold does not break the $1,178 low by October 3, we’re not likely to see the bottoming process in the precious metals end until January of next year.
That’s the next major cyclical target for a low in the precious metals ? January 2014.
So there are three scenarios ahead for gold (and silver):
Scenario #1: Gold declines to below $1,178 by October 3. If so, the bottom will be in place.
Scenario #2: Gold declines but does not break $1,178 by October 3. Then expect a brief bounce but largely a sideways trading range for the precious metals heading into year end.
And then, a sharp decline into January, with gold finally breaking the $1,178 low and bottoming once and for all.
Scenario #3: Gold somehow miraculously explodes higher and closes above $1,605.50. If gold were to do that — at any time — then we would have confirmation that the June low at $1,178 will hold and was the final bottom.
This third scenario is extremely unlikely. Far more likely is that we will see a major new low in gold either by October 3, or by the end of January.
And then, both gold and silver will be off to the races. No matter what, I do not see gold’s bear market extending beyond January 2014.
This should not surprise you. I have said all along that gold’s pause could take up to three years.
As to mining shares, as long as they hold their August lows, there is a very high possibility that mining shares have already bottomed, way in advance of gold.
So be patient and follow my signals.
nugt can never be compared to past $ figures. If we have all up days then the daily 3x % gain would be compounded on the way up and the same if it was mostly all down days. nugt disappears while in a downtrend like the last 2 years and can reappear in an uptrend market but only with a lot more up days than down.
This is the way I look at 3x etf's gains or losses, never try to figure percentages on anything but a day by day event. The percentages are never right if you look at a 6 month or 1 year gain or loss verses the instrument that the etf tracks.
I think the fund does a good job at giving 3x gdx on each day whether up or down. Like someone said on a lot of up days you do better than 3x but do worse than 3x on a lot of down days if you have held for that period.
historical prices g=gdx n=nugt
sep/oct 2011 g=66 n=216
june 2012 g=40 n=40
sep/oct 2012 g=54 n=95
july 2013 g=22.21 n=4.55
gdx lost 43.79 and nugt lost 211.45
Some of nugt disappeared and the only way it can reappear is to have all up days from here.
My conclusion is don't hold long unless it can never go down.
Proto Labs seems to have gotten to the high end of it's expected over valuations the street puts on these type stocks, so I have sold and wait for some type of correction.
Onvo did what they set out to do and persuade a major exchange to take them in, was a short lived pop. With the promise they have going forward but with no earnings they will do good in a rising stock market but correct heavily in a down market.
Gasfrac is the only one I feel comfortably holding through a market correction. They have great promise going forward and still trades at less than 1 x revenues. I would hold until they get to a valuation equal to the 3D stocks trading at 10 to 13 x revenues.
2011 high for gld was last week of aug at 183.
high for nugt was 1st week of sep at 210.
2012 high for gld was 2 times feb and oct 1 at 172.
high for nugt was 3rd week sep at 94.
I would expect another low here in sep/oct.
A prediction from Larry Edelson "In fact, every one of my indicators tells me the bounce will soon end and a new leg down will shortly unfold, taking gold as low as the $1,050 to $1,070 level." He said this should happen the 3rd week of Sept. Let's see if he is right. He also said gold miners will bottom again next week.
ONVO has just been listed on NY exchange causing a run up from the $4 range to over $6, may rest a while here, this is surely a well followed stock now.
Protolabs had been issued a $65 target and quickly reached that and is holding a little below that now.
Gasfrac will report sometime at beginning of Aug, should be better #'s for the 2nd Q, will have to see, the stock won't move much until they show more customers.
My hats off to the experienced traders, but to get to the experienced point it has to be pain in the beginning. I have made another post on the uslv board about gold and silver being close to a bottom. A average person with a long term view is suppose to find quality stocks that has been beaten down for one reason or another. Gold and silver has done this, their stocks are tied to futures contracts through this etf. I feel that a long term investor can buy at these levels and hold for more than a year, forget about the large swings because it will be some and when gold gets close to the old high it will be a huge gain in this etf. To feel that gold is over with as an investment you would have to think that the Europe governments can survive and not eventually go bankrupt, the same with US gov. The money situation is not sustainable in these governments, but throughout recorded history the only thing that has been is gold.
I do believe that gold and silver will rebound to old highs, if not within a year sometime not far later. There are some of the old gold bulls who called for this correction and also say gold will go over 5,000 in 3 to 5 years, with a lot of pain in Europe with defaults and our government not far after that. Those prices will run this ETF well into the 100's from $5 with no splits, but they will split on the way back up.
Everybody keeps saying this isn't a longterm investment, true futures markets are not long term because of the price fluctuations that come with it. When something falls from it's top in a year like uslv or nugt then for the poor fellow that rode it down from it's high (not very many I hope)then I agree it's not a long term investment even though it was a under a year that it happenned. I see nothing wrong for an average investor to take a small portion at this level and buy and forget about it for a year and I agree about this all being a crap shoot, anything in life is, it's just you could loose money in investing but probably not as much as marrying the wrong person.
I know that this is off subject but what are some off the opinions here on gold and silver. I value your thoughts better than most on the other boards. I'm looking to get in somewhere in here, several bears have called the bottom is close but may get closer to 1,000 for gold and 14 to 15 for silver. If this plays out for the future a lot could be made. The way I see it the only thing that can save the US is oil and gas for the next few years and a hedge for me and you is in gold and silver. Some say $5,000 in the next few years for gold,the big bulls say way more.
well here it is 1 month later, goes down a little then goes up a little, still think in the end I could make a little on this by holding. If the company is sold the properties are worth more than this.
Terrace Energy Corp. @TCRRF may be something to look at, they are just bringing some wells on line
link to latest info from their web site
http://terraceenergy.net/_resources/presentations/terrace_presentation_20130611.pdf
I think they will do good, here is another interesting article just out, if this turns out to only half true then Texas is in for a ride:
A vast, hidden source of growth for oil companies.
These companies will grow reserves and production without adding a single new acre of land
Some of the country's top shale plays are going to see huge growth in the next few years...
These companies will grow reserves and production by 30%, 40%, or even 50%... without adding a single new acre of land.
It comes down to the idea of "stacked plays." Let me explain...
Long time readers know that shale fields are responsible for an incredible boom in oil and gas production. These deposits come in the form of thin layers of oil-soaked rock.
If you could see them exposed in a cliff, the rocks would look like layers in a cake... And sometimes, several layers of the cake hold oil and gas. We call that a "stacked play."
These stacked plays are great for oil and gas producers. They can drill into several oil reservoirs from a single point on the surface.
Take the Spraberry/Wolfcamp formation in West Texas, for example...
Officials from Pioneer Resources (NYSE: PXD), which owns approximately 730,000 acres in the area, boast that Spraberry/Wolfcamp could be the world's second-largest oilfield, with 50 billion barrels of recoverable oil. That's an astonishing volume of oil... more than the Bakken, more than the Eagle Ford, and more than Alaska's iconic Prudhoe Bay.
And they might be right... Spraberry/Wolfcamp has six productive layers of shale. The productive rocks are spread over 4,000 vertical feet. According to Pioneer, if you spread those rocks out flat (instead of stacking them up) you'd have a 3 million to 4 million acre oilfield.
When Pioneer wants to increase production, it doesn't have to worry about the huge costs of a brand-new exploration program. That's because its exploration is directly under its existing wells. A single drill "pad" – the flat, cleared area set up for the drilling rig – used to hold just one well. Now... it can support 30 to 40 wells. That saves money and time.
The Bakken shale in North Dakota could offer the same benefits... And we might start calling it the Bakken/Three Forks. The Three Forks is another productive rock layer below the Bakken.
Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) is the best player in the Bakken. The company believes those rocks could more than double the Bakken's recoverable reserves to 32 billion barrels of oil. And you can see what those "extra" barrels have already done for the company...
In just five years, Continental's reserves per acre grew by 144%... And I expect that number to continue to grow as it keeps drilling the Three Forks. Continental shares are in a strong uptrend, up 38% since last August. And the promise of the stacked play could add significant reserves... and value... to Continental's shares over the next 12-18 months.
Other shale basins hold similar promise. The Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania has two more shales underneath it... the Utica and the Devonian. Another basin, called the Powder River, is home to the Niobrara formation. We're just starting to understand the stacked plays here.
Valuations, these companies will mostly have high valuations by the markets as they are all doing things that does not have much competition or none at all. All are take over candidates, any corrections is a good buying point. ONVO has established a good base here. Proto labs is staying close to highs. Gasfrac is finally getting more awareness from the public and markets as to their potential and is started to climb back to higher value as they were very much undervalued in my opinion.
OTC market $gsfvf Toronto market $gfs
Gasfrac has had a 45% gain since may 9, looks like things are starting to turn around for the company.
Gasfrac is looking better, has reached the 200 day line
http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/808698508.shtml
Nice article about the Canol oil shale play in the Northwest Territories
A short term fall or permanent, this company still own the rights to the property in New Mexico, it is worth something to somebody, maybe not us shareholders in the end but maybe it is.
What's your take on the run up Troy, I would say it has something to do with the outcome of the lawsuits but don't know which way, how about you greenskeeper? regardless hope it keeps going. the property in New Mexico should be worth over 20 mil at today's prices and that's close to a $5 a share price for Sunriver minus what their debt is now, shouldn't be much though.
I think the best thing going forward for them is the Hybrid Frac Technology where they had 3 successful fracs so far and is introducing it in Canada this month. Blackbrush has said they want to expand this use, they did the first Hybrid Frac and the company has said they are receiving interest from others in this tech. This is info from the web site in the investor 2013 presentation where they give you a cost example of the Hybrid frac verses slick water frac : They can frac 4 wells with the hybrid technology for each well it takes for a water frac from start to end by the example in the presentation, for less money and deliver more production out of the well.
More insider buying by the vice pres of sales of Gasfrac 32,000 shares after 1'st Q release on May 10, he had bought 12,000 last month, both on the open market, another officer bought 10,000 last month also. Don't look to bad right now with the outlook for the rest of the year. They have a nice investor presentation update for 2013 just added on their website that explains the company a little better.
http://www.gasfrac.com/assets/docs/PDFS/presentations/AGM%20Presentation%20-%202013.pdf
I don't need but a dollar a share but see if he can prop this thing up a little more for us greenskeeper.
I don't get the upgrade by Raymond James just before earnings and then back down after earnings when he should have known pretty close to the #'s but not all of the forward news in the news conference with the company. What was he looking for going forward, something better than what was said?. As someone on the other boards said the new NGL Technology has been the main turn around thing for this company, I guess R James has to see #'s and I would too I guess but markets do what they do as the stock still went up on good volume after his downgrade. This Q would be the best 2'nd Q yet at the sacrifice of the 1'st Q but for the year the #'s may be the same or still could be more if some of the new customers come about that was talked about with the interest in the new NGL frac. These small drillers see that if now they may frac a well and do it cheaper than using water it quickly takes away some of the "well I don't know attitude". This should be the best year with Blackbrush and then Terrence is coming on board for 1 well in same area, can't see them stopping with just 1 well. Companies do turn around, why not Gasfrac now, the time is right, Oil prices are steady, gas is edging up, stock market looks good as someone said until Bernanke starts raising rates, another 18m?
Gasfrac reported not so good 1'st Q #'s. They missed rev but it turnes out the customers just moved the work out to the 2'nd Q. In April and 1'st week of May they already have recorded what they did the 2nd Q of 2012 and this is usually the weakest Q due to spring breakup in Canada. They also have 2 or 3 more things mentioned,new CEO soon, they want the right one this time, several new customers expressing interest in the NGL Technology, Husky opening up another oil field (200mb) in Canada (Husky is interested in the new Frac technology), Blackbrush will drill 2 wells per month till end of year. Stock traded down till the news conference then it traded up the rest of Thursday and today. They still have to prove themselves for sure but I think this is a good start.
Gasfrac came out with low 1'st Q #'s due to main customer's holding off work, but rev in so far 1'st week of May have gone past 2012 2'nd Q rev and forecast this to be their turnaround Q. They are getting more interest in new customers and old customers are lining up steady work the rest of year. New NGL Technology is taking hold getting more customers to want a 2 to 3 well trial with them. Stock had traded down a bit but traded up for the day.
I'm just trying to keep greenskeeper straight, he has a vendetta on seeing Sun River go up in smoke and has hinted at what someone else could do with Sun's asset in New Mexico. It's not hard to see that he probably is part of the Plaintiff's lawsuit against SunRiver. We was half way back to my breakeven on the last rally in the .40's, a little good news and this could go again.
Proto Labs update, looks like with this buy 3D is now a competitor
Earlier this week on May 1, 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) announced that it had acquired and will immediately integrate San Diego-based Rapid Product Development Group, Inc. ("RPDG").
RPDG is described in the press release as a provider of "on-demand additive and traditional manufacturing services" and services a global customer base in the automotive, computer, consumer appliance, medical device, and industrial equipment industry.
The term "additive" refers to 3D printing services, and by "traditional" they are referring to the use of older technologies such as CNC machining, injection molding, die casting, etc. The company offers a Rapid Quote service that allows customers to upload CAD files, configure a project, and instantly receive a quote; as shown in this brief video and the screen shots below, place an order, and have their parts and prototypes quickly produced and delivered.
This will sound very familiar to followers of Proto Labs, Inc. (PRLB) as it is essentially the same business, with the notable exception that Proto Labs only provides the older traditional services and not additive 3D printing capabilities.
I've made it clear that I was just a small shareholder in Sunriver who wasn't sure who to believe at first over the lawsuits but you have dug your cause in a hole as far as I'm concerned, greenskeeper.
Sunriver filed this just yesterday:
>This case exists because Colin Richardson and the plantiffs are seeking to enrich their current venture, Rangeford Resources, Inc, by gaining access to and control of Sun River's assets--to the detriment of the Sun River sharholders. As part of their ongoing scheme to litigate Sun River into bankruptcy.<
So my almost worthless shares, because of the litigation that has been going on since last year will probably be worth O very soon and you may end up with the New Mexico property.
I feel just like Little Bill when he told Will Munny, I don't deserve this, Will told him deserven got nothing to do with it and then he put him out of his misery.
Just a few updates on Gasfrac,
may 1 Raymond James changed to outperform from market perform,
At this time Gasfrac is the only Company in the
world capable of pumping High Reid Vapour Pressure Hydrocarbons (Propane, Butane,Pentane,(NGL's).
Future use of Butanes and Pentanes mix will greatly reduce the net
cost of NGL fracs.
Terrace Finalizes Transaction For South Texas Oil & Gas Property Vancouver, BC April 29, 2013 Terrace Energy Corp since the standing agreement signed last Feb with BlackBrush.
They were scheduled to frac their first well with Gasfrac last month
ONVO has seen heavy volume with a nice gain in the last 2 days
ONVO is written about today concerning it's future listing prospects with Nasdaq,
Organovo also stands alone in a niche market as it is the only company in its industry developing a three-dimensional printing apparatus for the printing of human tissues, known as the NovoGen MMX Bioprinter that was developed to meet challenges in biologic research. The platform takes primary or other human cells and shapes them into 3D tissue, with tremendous cellular viability and biology which can be viewed as a superior analysis alternative to animal testing models (for a more in depth analysis please see company website). The MMX Bioprinter has already demonstrated the ability to create human blood vessel constructs, effectively creating human tissue capillary structures. This showcases the company's potential to broaden the scope and scale of 3D tissues that can be generated, and facilitates the development of disease models in such areas as cardiovascular disease, fibrosis and oncology. In addition to being the only player in the market segment, Organovo has successfully secured collaborations and research agreements with Pfizer (PFE), United Therapeutics (UTHR) and Autodesk (ADSK) from which they derive revenue and valuable insight and analysis into developing their technology.
As I previously stated, uplisiting to a national exchange like the NYSE-MKT or NASDAQ-CM generates advantages in broader visibility, increased liquidity and accessibility to the deep pockets of institutional investment firms and retail brokers.
Of particular importance, participation will widen as the listing will open trading to a sizeable proportion of investors who are unable to, or avoid over-the-counter investment(s). As both these companies inch towards the final steps of completing the process to uplist, retail investors seeking exposure to the niche markets that only InVivo and Organovo offer still have a chance to invest before the monetary benefits of the uplisting come to full fruition when institutional money and greater visibility will factor into the price.
Proto Labs at first appears to be a new company with a new idea and may very well be, this is all about information and getting the correct and as true as possible info to make investment choices so look at the other side of the coin on Proto Labs,
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1348521-proto-labs-a-3-d-horror-show-not-worth-the-price-of-admission?source=yahoo
Gasfrac and Black Brush has on the last couple of fracs has instead of using LPG, are going with NGL and with better results. The following is from the last page of the pdf file from the recent presentation Black Brush gave at Pittsburgh.
>Conclusion
Use of NGL fracs has greatly increased reserve recovery for oil
formations.
Future use of Butanes and Pentanes mix will greatly reduce the net
cost of NGL fracs.
Continued added infrastructure will reduce costs of NGL fracs.
NGL fracs should make many of the normal pressure oil windows in
shale plays viable.
NGL fracs eliminate the problems associated with water fracs.
BlackBrush plans to continue to utilize GasFrac in current areas and
expand the technology in other formations<
This was the last page of the pdf file of the Black Brush presentation in Pittsburgh, I have no Idea why they are coming out at this time, maybe some kind of an alliance that we don't know about yet but this is public knowledge because they put it out at the conference. Keep in mind that this is something new other than the LPG fracs that Gasfrac had been doing.
>Conclusion
28
? Use of NGL fracs has greatly increased reserve recovery for oil
formations.
? Future use of Butanes and Pentanes mix will greatly reduce the net
cost of NGL fracs.
? Continued added infrastructure will reduce costs of NGL fracs.
? NGL fracs should make many of the normal pressure oil windows in
shale plays viable.
? NGL fracs eliminate the problems associated with water fracs.
? BlackBrush plans to continue to utilize GasFrac in current areas and
expand the technology in other formations<
This upgrade did not take in account the recent new happenings such as the Black Brush presentation at the Pittsburgh Conference or the announcement by Terrence Energy on April 1 on using Gasfrac Tech. I wonder if this changes things for the better once more. If you catch what Black Brush put out they are changing from LPG to NGL with better cost savings and better production the way it looks and in their own words will be doing more fracs because of these latest results.