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Futures gapped up!!!
I am holding as well. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and will see you back on the board after the Chargers beat Tebow & Co...lol. Hopefully the Bills smash the Jets too so I can hear more lip from Rex Ryan. True comedy.
lol...Good morning. I am just watching my position add $ to my account
S&P500 futures are down...hope this continues on through my sleep. See you all in the morning
I hope this is just a mid day bounce...
I am just saying that I dont see why the MM would bring SPY below 125 by Friday. Once options expire this week, I think we might start seeing a little more movement. jmo
From 120-125 puts I see 1,447,848 open interest
&
from 125-130 calls i see 737,222 open interest
This could be a terrible assumption, but isn't it very beneficial for the market makers to close SPY in between 125 & 127? If you look at the open interest, that seems to be a good price range for SPY to close because this is where the MM will make the most money when the options expire. Any thoughts anyone?
We have a nice flag formed. Which way to we break the trend. Up or down?
As of now, I am in puts and I will hold over night. I still believe we hit 119 before we hit 129. That is just my opinion. We will have to wait and see. Hopefully we close below 124 to maintain our bearishness.
If you look at the open interest. It would be beneficial for the market makers to close out november above 125 as there is a lot of action on the put side below that.
Looks like we have a flag forming. A bounce to 126.50 range it looks like than we could decide which way this charts is heading?
Yes, I may have to make an additional adjustment if this 124.30 doesnt hold. I increase my yield this morning but may have to give it right back to protect my short legs
IT doesn't appear that we are going to hold. I opened a new put spread. Hopefully we dont have a massive amount of buying volume come in...
WE GOING TO HOLD THAT 123 LINE?
I ended up closing my 129-134 put spread for a few bucks. Probably going to open a call spread in the morning depending on how we hold the 123's. This way I am back on both sides of the market. It is so much easier to trade when I have 10$ in between a call and put spread.
I will add though, part of my reason that I opened a new put spread spread was I thought the Euro/USD was due for a reversal soon. I have been watching that chart as it has helped drive the market as well.
I would say it was a little bit more lucky than anything. However, now I look like a genius, lol. O well, I am waiting for the timing to close out my spread as we may not have hit a low just yet.
Closed those 124-119 calls yesterday and opened 129-134 puts. Going to close those 129-134 puts now. What an open in my favor.
Off to the races again...have a dollar of wiggle room. I hope the 128's are a strong resistance point
Opened a downer @ 127.08. Will see how this plays out the next few days
Interesting day...
I closed my 124-119 call spread @ 126.50. Made a few bucks. Deciding whether or not downers are the right choice right now. I think 127.39 is the high of the day maybe even the high of the week but we will have to wait and see.
I Intend to close out this position tomorrow. We will see how the futures close out in the morning. Hopefully favorable to my call position.
A nice strong close. I am still holding my 124-119 Dec11 Calls. I hope this channels to 128.50 and turns back over to 122. That would be a perfect scenario for me.
I'm on monthly plays so I can breathe
It's really any ones guess. That is just my guess. I'm hedged regardless. Perfect scenario for me, hit a high of 128 and come back to 119. Then I will be a happy camper
I opened a 124-119 spread to protect myself just in case of a breakout. We might come crumbling down to 122 again but just incase we test the 130's again I am safe. We have been expecting this chart to reverse for some time now, but I think Europe will remain stagnant for the month of november options. I feel good about our 122-130 channel. JMO
Yes, I still have all my puts spreads in play. Hoping we come down to the 122 area and test that again.
its gonna be a slow day. I am thinking calls for early next week. We might retest the 129 levels again
What's your take on the bullishness blasher?
You all think we are going to be retesting the 122's early next week or the 130's? At this point it is so mixed as to where this chart is going.
Europe's Gives Greece an Ultimatum
France, Germany Say the Nation Must Decide Whether to Stay in Euro or Go
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By CHARLES FORELLE, DAVID GAUTHIER-VILLARS and MARCUS WALKER
CANNES, France—Europe's leaders, making plain that they've reached the end of their patience with Greece, demanded that the beleaguered nation declare whether it wanted to remain in the euro currency union—or risk going it alone in a dramatic secession.
WSJ's Stephen Fidler reports Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has indicated he is standing by his decision to hold a referendum on the debt rescue agreement reached by euro zone countries last week. Photo: Reuters/John Kolesidis
"Does Greece want to remain part of the euro zone or not," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "That is the question the Greek people must now answer."
The extraordinary rupture with the rest of Europe—whose leaders have insisted for months that an exit from the currency union is simply inconceivable—follows Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's stunning decision Monday to call a referendum on his country's bailout.
Given the deep unpopularity of the budget-cutting measures that have accompanied the bailout, a "no" vote is a real possibility. That could send Greece, and possibly the euro zone itself, into chaos.
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Mr. Papandreou said the referendum could be held Dec. 4 or 5 at the earliest, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Ms. Merkel said. Greek Parliament must vote on whether the referendum is held.
World leaders are gathering in this Riviera city, more accustomed to movie stars than motorcades, for the annual summit of the Group of 20 large developing and industrialized nations.
But the deliberations of the G-20 are now a sideshow to the Greek main event. In a series of hurriedly scheduled meetings, Europe's top powers huddled to plot their strategy for responding to the new uncertainty posed by Greece and to dress down the Greek prime minister.
Wednesday evening, before the official kick-off of the G-20 summit, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Ms. Merkel, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and the two top officials of the European Union, José Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, met in a strategy session. In a phone call earlier in the day, Mr. Barroso told Mr. Papandreou that the referendum call threatened his country's lifeline of aid.
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Protesters dressed as prisoners demonstrated against austerity measures in Athens on Tuesday.
Later in the evening, Mr. Papandreou arrived to join them. He walked alone into the Palais des Festivals, near handprints in concrete of the building's usual visitors--Meg Ryan, Angelina Jolie and Catherine Deneuve.
After his meeting, it appeared the European leaders had scored one victory by pulling the referendum forward to early December. Greek officials had earlier signaled that it would be held in January, after the completion of negotiations on a new Greek bailout. Instead, there seems to be agreement on an earlier referendum. If successful, it would clear the way for a broad mandate to continue pressing cuts on Greece.
Europe had hoped this G-20 summit would have been a chance to demonstrate to the rest of the world that it has its debt crisis under control. An all-night euro-zone meeting just last week had fashioned a "comprehensive" plan to aid Greece, bolster the bloc's bailout fund and recapitalize the region's banks. That is now in tatters, and the image Europe is presenting is one of more confusion and uncertainty than ever.
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That is particularly damaging considering how much Europe now needs the rest of the world. Voters in Germany and other strong countries in the euro zone's north have insisted they will provide no more money to propping up Greece and the rest of the periphery.
Thus the European Union is turning to China and other emerging countries with surplus cash. Mr. Sarkozy held a dinner with Chinese premier Hu Jintao Wednesday; no specific commitments emerged from that meeting, and the Chinese have said they want more detail and clarity from Europe on its plans.
Mr. Papandreou stunned Europe and financial markets this week by calling for a plebiscite on the latest, €130 billion ($178 billion) rescue package for Greece, which is tied to deeper austerity policies in the economically suffering country as well as the restructuring of Greek bonds.
Analysts say the referendum idea was a Hail Mary pass by an increasingly friendless premier, aimed at gaining a popular mandate for his overhauls of the Greek state and economy and putting opponents on the spot.
But if voters spurn the bailout deal, Greece could face national bankruptcy and exit from the euro, while leaving Europe confronting an almighty financial panic and an economic slump.
The enormous stakes, and the high risk of a "no" vote amid Greeks' anger about steep government spending cuts and tax hikes, have triggered a revolt by some lawmakers in Mr. Papandreou's ruling Socialist party.
On Wednesday it appeared he might muster enough votes to scrape through a vote of confidence in parliament set for Friday. Defeat in the confidence vote would likely trigger elections or the formation of a national-unity government under a new leader.
But even if Mr. Papandreou survives in office, he may lack enough lawmakers' support to stage the referendum. Although he won his cabinet's backing to propose a referendum on Tuesday night, parliament must approve the proposal. Mr. Papandreou could struggle on as prime minister even if his referendum idea is defeated by his own lawmakers, but his authority would be severely damaged, and analysts say a change of leadership could soon follow.
Greece is on the edge, and it is fast running out of cash.
Money is being supplied by the EU and the IMF under a €110 billion program agreed to last year. That aid is distributed in quarterly tranches, and the next tranche was expected to be paid imminently.
Getting Ready for the G-20
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Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy in Cannes on Wednesday, with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé at rear
But that was before the referendum call, and several officials said even that payment was contingent on a resolution to the political crisis.
Failure to make the next aid payment, valued at some €8 billion ($11 billion), would likely mean the country running out of money in December, officials said, potentially causing an unplanned default on bonds that come due that month.
A spokesman for the German Finance Ministry said Greece doesn't need urgent bailout payments now and won't require the next chunk of aid until mid-December.
"From all that we hear out of Greece, there is no acute payment need until around mid-December," German finance ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus told a regular government press conference. That gives time "to take a concrete look as to how we're proceeding."
Debt, Doubt and the Euro Zone
See country-by-country events in the crisis.
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A senior Greek government official also said Wednesday that the government has sufficient cash to cover its operating needs until December. The key date for Greece is Dec. 19, when a €1.17 billion benchmark government bond comes due. If that isn't paid on time, Greece will likely be called into default by its creditors. Other bonds issued by the government in settlement of previous late payments to commercial creditors also mature this month and next.
"I hope that this whole thing can be closed and completed before mid-December," said IMF chief Christine Lagarde after Wednesday night's meeting. "I think it's important from a cash point of view."
Yes, I have three seperate put spreads across the board. I would love to see this come down to 119-120. Then I will close out one of my spreads and open a temporary call spread. hopefully somewhere around 117 short. Right below that 50ma
World Officials React to Greek Call for Referendum .Article Comments (4) more in World | Find New $LINKTEXTFIND$ ».Email Print Save ? More .
.smaller Larger A Wall Street Journal Roundup
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's call for a referendum on a bailout package for his country caught world officials by surprise. Coming ahead of the gathering of the Group of 20 in Cannes at the end of the week, the announcement will likely put Greece and the fallout for the euro zone at the top of the agenda.
Here are some of the reactions to the announcement from officials around the world:
--The Greek government's move is a "roll of the dice" that could destabilize financial markets, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said. "If it fails, it's going to be a mess."
--White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said Greece's call for a referendum "just reinforces the notion" that the euro zone needs to implement the bailout package rapidly.
--"[Mr.]Papandreou, who had never mentioned the hypothesis of a referendum throughout the negotiations, has made a decision that looks irresponsible in the current situation, because it could take Europe down the cliff it has managed to escape until now." said Sébastien Huyghe, a senior official in Mr. Sarkozy's ruling Union for a Popular Movement party.
--"We respect the Greek government's decision, but we think it's not a good decision either for the euro zone or for Spain," spokesman José Blanco said in televised remarks.
--The rescue plan announced last week in Brussels, "... is the only way to solve Greece's debt problem," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy following an emergency cabinet meeting. Earlier Tuesday Mr. Sarkozy and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a joint statement saying the deal announced last week, "will allow Greece to go back on a durable growth path."
--"In times of difficult structural adjustment, major fiscal austerity, tough decisions that governments such as the Greek government is contemplating, it is imperative that there is widespread support - broad democratic support - for those measures because they will unfold over a period of time," Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said during testimony before the House of Commons finance committee.
--Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said the Greek decision "was unexpected and triggers uncertainty after the recent European Council meeting and on the eve of the G-20 summit in Cannes.
--Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte urged Greece to hurry up if it wants to call a referendum on its rescue plan. Meanwhile, the biggest opposition party threatened to withdraw its crucial support for the deal if Greece goes ahead with a referendum. "Financial markets can't wait for months and in the meantime hope that the Greeks will support the package. If they don't cancel the referendum, the deal will explode anyway," said a spokesman of the Labor Party.
I think we could see a bounce to 125 tomorrow. I will see how the futures trade tonight. However, I think by next week we the markets are going to get smashed once again. Greece is bound for default.
November 1, 2011, 4:06 PM ET.Insult to Injury: Banks Downgraded Amid Selloff.Article Comments MarketBeat HOME PAGE ».EmailPrintTwitter
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AFP/GettyS&P Capital IQ has downgraded J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup to “hold” during a session in which financials are getting creamed.
The firm is “increasingly cautious of J.P. Morgan’s international lending exposure,” while the proposed Greece referendum and “increasing uncertainly surrounding US deficit negotiations” means “Citigroup’s earnings recovery and recent capital level improvements face heightened risks.”
As for Bank of America, S&P Capital IQ notes the macro environment “is now once again cloudy. This likely means higher risks to earnings and capital levels for global banks.”
Just ahead of the close, the trio are down 5-7%, and the financial sector broadly is leading the market lower.
Interesting close. Last 15 minutes there was a large amount of buying. Looks like the 122 will hold as support. We will have to wait and see. Could see a bounce to 125 our previous resistance point before breaking out to nearly 130.
Anyone else have any input?
Futures trading relatively flat. Perhaps this is an indicator of what tomorrow may trade like. would like the bears to takeover this week but in October, SPY did not have have two consecutive down days the entire month. Perhaps Nov1 we will see this trend get broken.
Yes, I have on going trades daily. However, I trade spreads so I just roll and adjust when I need to. It is not as risky and you can still pick up a decent yield. I only trade the SPY though.