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Building block chart is YTD 1 Hr. Going to be watching as the year rolls along and see how leadership develops.
Metal miners have been on a tear to start the year. Pretty much any of them. I opted for LIT but one of the lithium processors, Livent (LTHM) has doubled up already on LIT
I took new positions today in Lithium (LIT) and lumber (WOOD). I like the setups developing on the weekly and daily charts looking at some pretty simplistic crossovers.
My portfolio building blocks for 2023 largely come from commodities. Energy, metals, agriculture and livestock, water. The basket here also includes a couple of plays in China equities as well as a managed futures fund. All ETFs.
You absolutely don't want to short TNA if you want to be short, go long TZA. There is an effect that goes by many names, such as creep, decay, etc. Me expericence tells me holding a 3x in the direction the funds were intended and there is a gain, I can expect an increase in gain in a 3x fund vs holding the same in a 1x fund. I have seen this over and over.
The issue is chop. Imagine prices being in channel moving up and down 15% over and over. So if a $1000 investment dropped -15% to 850, then gained 15%, the balance would only be $977.50. $22.50 was lost on the cycle.
For an equivalent investment of $3000 in a 1x fund moving in a 5% channel, the fund would drop to $2850 and move back to 2992.5. The lost would only be $7.5.
But as the up cycles become larger than the down cycles, the 3x funds start to shine.
Here the data for SPY, SPXL and SPXS for Dec. Since the month was a down month, the SPXS was the best fund to invest in and save 2/3 of your capital to boot.
2 months is a long time to be holding a 3x ETF. Below is the estimated decay for your example.
Approximately a 7.5% 'holding cost' is represented by the purple decay line I drew on the ETF pair chart below. The sideways chop the market has been going through the past few weeks would make this decay more noticeable too.
The 1x ETF would remain basically unchanged during sideways chop, but a 2x, and more so a 3x ETF of the same equity would display decay. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p14976638344
Thank you. I have looked at that ETF pair before and found they do not trade frequently enough to chart well for me.
With the coldest December in a generation just concluding, I expect the NatGas withdraw numbers in tomorrow's weekly report to be epic.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
My BOIL/KOLD chart pair (below) may flip from KOLD to BOIL soon. The KOLD run just concluding was a nice Christmas gift. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p19689404468
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p75828787710
RXL and RXD may be of interest to you. They are +2X and -2X Healthcare. I follow CURE and was looking for an inverse version. Found RXL and RXD instead. I just took a position in RXD.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year and thanks for the update!
Still believing in the basic thesis
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=169688195
2020 Pandemic Year
2021 Supply Chain Year
2022 Inflation Year
2023 Recession Year
2024 and beyond - the flat recovery years
I am transitioning out of the ETF Optimizer portfolio which I must say I was really happy with in the first part of the year, but I saw it get tossed around in the second half of the year and they really seem to be adjusting their system on the fly trying to figure out the market turns.
I have stayed with Scott and team in their NEB group (mastermind). One of the more interesting themes and ideas brought to my attention is an ETF DBMF. It is a managed futures ETF utilizing a trend following system which in my simple mind keeps shuffling the leaders to the top of the deck of holdings and discards the laggards.
https://www.etftrends.com/managed-futures-channel/invest-in-the-trends-of-a-market-on-the-move-with-dbmf/
The trend following structure of the ETF I think (hope) smooths out the overall performance. The outperformance is there over it's brief history. The fees are low. It has a built-in sector diversification. As an ETF it fits the IRA approach nicely. I did make inquiries into different managed futures hedge funds that have lower initial investment thresholds, but can't beat the IRA at this stage for me. So DBMF works (until it doesn't).
Here is a variation that I have been working with...which is to take DBMF and .apply a simple crossover approach to holding a position in it. In other words, instead of buying at any given point and time and letting the ETF algos manage the market fluctuations use a simple crossover technique to try to avoid the bigger drawdowns and improve the overall performance.
* Simple Kalman Filter 20/50 Crossover system. Indicator available on Trading View (search for "ZELMA w/Kalman Filter [Morty]". The Kalman filter is hailed by Mole from RPQ Unlimited which he uses in his Gravitas system. The Kalman filter moving averages produce faster signals that SMA or EMA on their own IMHO.
** For my simple crossover approach I used the highest price on the day following the Buy signal to buy and the lowest price on the day following a Sell signal to sell to keep it less than optimized.
So using all of 2022 data, DBMF from the first trading day of the year stands at +20.74%. By using the crossover method described above yields a performance of +25.49%. Just one isolated year out of a very short history but I like the ETF on it's own to build a substantial position. There were 3 Buy and Sell turns in 2022. So very little "action" which is nice but not buy-and-hold either. A fourth Buy signal just happened last Thursday.
Other than this late activity in the last couple of months I've been staying pretty safe on the sideline and developing a strong sense that that is not the place to be either.
A prosperous 2023 to us all!
I don't remember waking up to this much green in the futures market.
Interesting reads from ZH. The chart says KOLD will be bold, but I don't know if nat gas can operate freely amid the global forces at work...as if it ever freely moves. I've tried a couple of plays on shorter 1 hour timeframes but largely staying away
I believe being on the short side of Bitcoin is the correct position. It appears Europe is leading the world markets down. -
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-implodes-its-leaders-plan-radical-intervention-including-price-setting-suspending?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eurasian-alliance-plans-moscow-world-standard-destroy-lbmas-monopoly-precious-metals?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sweden-austria-start-bailing-out-energy-companies-triggering-europes-minsky-moment?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=900
...and it appears Bitcoin remains correlated near 1 for 1 with the Nasdaq.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=25&id=p74983544514
BITI (a new ETF) is a way to short Bitcoin. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BITI&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p22691814406
Currently have a small short position on BTC started two weekends ago anticipating a weekend swoon. It is still holding. Looks like two impulses up and looking for that third one to break harder up...and BTC down.
I am glad you have something working well for you. Currently, I hold only short positions. Short Nasdaq (SQQQ), short Biotech (LABD), short tech-semiconductors (SOXS), and short gold (GDXD). GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SQQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p60822541611
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LABD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p80045521925
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SOXS&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p39206626552
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p18879811466
Watching for an entry point in KOLD to present itself (next week?)
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p79037986930
...and also watching for an entry point into all things crypto to present itself too. This includes the miners. It might be quite a while before it bottoms though.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=25&id=p74983544514
That is a good article. As does the author, I too have been using the 30% and 70% levels for $BPxxx charts.
I have also been playing with $BPxxx's in this chart style. Its a work in progress for me...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69051637902
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p69051637902
Here is an interesting chart and article.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/mindfulinvestor/2022/08/im-calling-the-top-in-the-sp-5-370.html?mc_cid=6c122889b7&mc_eid=b6c072464f
Here is an idea for you.
When the current bear market rally starts to get toppy, UVIX will turn up. As low as it is currently, this could be a nice 2x return. GLTY
https://www.volatilityshares.com/uvix/
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UVIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p45126262881
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UVIX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p36294538296
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=UVIX&p=0&t=17&width=288&height=147&vol=1&delay=1&min_pre=270&min_after=270
The coming Wile E Coyote 'Clonk' event explained. I'm guessing late 2022 or early 2023 when the Fed stops raising interest rates, actually starts lowering them again, and begins printing money again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/its-game-over-fed-expect-monetary-rug-pull-soon?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=851
Link to below chart - GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24%24FEDRATE&p=D&yr=40&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75169583242
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21PRIME&p=D&yr=40&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25834343112
I appreciate your comments on Bitcoin versus Ethereum. I am watching this too, but for now, I still like riding the Bitcoin miners rather than the coin itself. Bitcoin turned positive over the weekend -
Because of this, looking to get back into a miner today. Likely CORZ this time rather than back into MARA.
https://cryptonewsbtc.org/2022/03/30/core-scientific-stock-how-corz-became-the-king-of-bitcoin/
I noticed Gold seens positioned for a run. Watching for the boxes to get checked this week before I jump into GDXU. NatGas turning down over the weekend. KOLD moving up this morning. Will this be the beginning of 'the big KOLD move'? This week might be telling. GLTY
Well ETH crossed 1800 so that is looking better
Still sideways but good strength overnight as it opened in the far east. Could be a change of direction. It certainly brings things up to an important level of resistance that it has to get past to be worth jumping into. I prefer ETH at this point. A lot of interest with 'The Merge'. I think it is a potential catalyst until it happens supposedly at the end of the quarter...then maybe sell the news. ETH is definitely outperforming BTC since the June lows.
Bitcoin chart looking weak going into the weekend. Sold MARA this afternoon. GLTY.
The BTC to QQQ correlation is measured on a scale from -1.0 to 1.0. 1.0 indicates highly correlated (moving together). -1.0 indicates moving in opposite directions.
I added the Stockcharts measure of correlation in the lower pane of the below charts. The first one daily, the other 1 hour. It is a dynamic measure and moves around a lot in shorter time frames.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p42854664997
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p07958710551
GLTY
NOTE - I have learned to take the comments from 'the boys' more as suggestions rather than absolutes. I believe they are both very skilled technicians, but for me, sometimes a bit too complex in their tool selection, and a bit too creative in their analysis. I have however learned much from them by observing.
Not sure about the correlation. In general both are down. But BTC is not behaving well. I did get out of my positions mainly in ETH last Friday hoping to catch a good correction. I had to travel yesterday and couldn't watch anything. When I heard that the nasdaq and technology had a monster day I thought for sure crypto would have followed suit. But it went the other way which I was amazed at. I know the RPQ boys are still expecting down but I thought it was closely following tech.
Chart below is BTC/QQQ
Approaching the 'green' zone!
I stumbled onto the below market indicators a while back, and use them as trend indicators. The trend is your friend.
...and for the past 6-8 months, crypto has been somewhat correlated with the Nasdaq. GLTY
https://decrypt.co/105140/bitcoin-rises-while-u-s-stocks-equities-continue-to-fall
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYSI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98089974058
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NASI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p66572016916
nice!
I'm cautious about this run. I do like watching the 4 HR chart as a swing timeframe. The pullback on the 4 Hr needs to resolve itself. Sunday's particularly at night tend to be volatile and indicate direction in my highly unscientific view.
BTCUSD is making a series of higher highs and higher lows (...and some altcoins too!). Next resistance level is ~ $30k. Bitcoin miners will likely shadow this move up come Monday.
The correlation of Bitcoin with the Nasdaq continues.
FYI I recently changed from 1 hr to 2 hr time frame for my faster-moving chart. The 1 hour was too whippy. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p57368801361
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MARA&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p57368801361
I agree. I started a position this morning. The 4 hr crossed on Wednesday and the daily is looking to price-cross today and line cross next week. I have a slight feeling that it will bounce along the bottom for a bit but probably not worth trying to draw too fine a line. KOLD and BOIL 1 Day and 4 Hr charts for each below
KOLD update - All three boxes checked today! I look for KOLD to be strong all of Aug and into Sept, then strength moves back into BOIL in Sept. While I look for this cycle to happen, need to follow the charts and do what they tell you. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOLD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p46291642178
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOIL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=1&id=p46291642178
NatGas - This is interesting. This morning's weekly report showed the lowest inventory injection number in years, this is due to the huge consumption the past week caused by hot weather. One would think this very low inventory injection report should have been a very bullish report, sending Natgas higher, however, the market gave it a big yawn today.
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
With the futures and options contracts rolling over to the next forward month yesterday, I believe the market is now looking to the fall 'shoulder' season where demand will greatly decrease as the summer weather cools, but the winter heating season has not yet started. NatGas demand should slow greatly in the next few weeks, weekly inventory injection reports will be much larger as the industry repairs for the coming winter heating season, and the price should drop accordingly.
It should now be time for KOLD to shine for a few weeks, until the winter heating season begins. The 1 hour chart appears to be poised to complete the rollover from favoring BOIL to favoring KOLD this week (today?) as anticipated. GLTY
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-continue-to-look-a-bit-exhausted-1079144
I will look deeper into your chart format this weekend. Looks like I have something to learn from you again. TY! Bitcoin (and the related miners) is moving up in lockstep with Nasdaq this week. Confirmation Bitcoin and Nasdaq are still correlated. I believe we are seeing the beginning of a bear market rally this week, not the bottom.
Other than the Bitcoin I am HODLing (my goal is to be holding 1 Bitcoin by year's end), MARA is my only exposure to Crypto at the moment. GLTY
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MARA&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p56923960389
My new chart look would say early on the daily, but the 1 Hr has something of a counter trend move going on today
I have been sitting in ETH and watching the world go by for quite a while. I have enjoyed the run up from the June lows. I am in agreement with the boys that another leg down is coming, and I have been watching this chart in particular. I exited my position yesterday morning watching this rollover. I especially like the Kalman filter crossovers on the price chart. But I especially like the volume supported linear regression trend at the bottom. I will be looking for the next crossover of the Kalman filter lines (green up arrow) with a rising VSLT and histogram flip on the xero line of the 4 hour chart.
I am watching for NatGas to peak today or tomorrow. Options roll-over is tomorrow.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-natural-gas-markets-spike-1076089
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