China: Miner Found Alive After 17 Years Underground
Friday, May 9, 2014 20:20



Note.
Rice and water good for survival food -

http://beforeitsnews.com/paranormal/2014/05/china-miner-found-alive-after-17-years-underground-2468686.html

See more at:
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/china-miner-found-alive-after-17-years-underground/#sthash.0iPQIasL.dpuf
God Bless

Still holding most stocks...

and still up. Waiting for the steady rise in gold and silver to occur. Patience will hopefully pay off.

Man Invents A Way To Heat A House Using 240 Recycled Aluminum Cans

Americans recycle around 61 billion soda cans every year. With this man’s invention, that could heat almost 250 million homes. No expense. No maintenance.

Using regular recycled aluminum cans, a Newfoundland man has converted them into a powerful solar heating panel. According to his tests, the solar panels are able to generate around 10,000 BTUs – enough to heat a small home.

Jim Meaney, owner of Cansolair Inc., explains the simple yet effective product:

Brilliant Newfoundlander Invents the Solution!

Scientists Warn of Extreme Risk: Greatest Short-term Threat to Humanity is From Fukushima Fuel Poolshttp://www.globalresearch.ca/scientists-warn-of-extreme-risk-greatest-short-term-threat-to-humanity-is-from-fukushima-fuel-pools/5357344

I have well over 6 figures in gold and silver...

and related stocks - and own nearly nothing else. rode out the last two years - after selling some - and although mentally challenging - believe this is how the big, big money is made. Am set up for a bull run in gold and silver. Bring it on and give me 7 figures.

Martin Armstrong now hedging his forecast on gold...

and saying this could be the time for a massive rise. Whereas before he strongly believed the Dow would rise and gold fall into next year and perhaps beyond - and only then rise --- he now is saying there is a chance that the time for gold is now.

That puts us in a spot where nearly all of the people who foresaw the previous financial crisis are saying gold's time is, or could be, now.

Gold $5,000+ – Why
Posted by Martin Armstrong
August 14, 2013

QUESTION: You have been really hard on the “gold promoters”, yet you are long-term bullish on gold. Why would gold rise if not for all the reasons put forth by the gold promoters?

ANSWER: I was a gold market-maker. Personally, I prefer gold. I prefer to handle it. But whatever my personal feeling about gold, that is irrelevant when it comes to forecasting. I have learned to separate my “personal” likes and dislikes from the cold light of ascertaining what truly makes the world tick. Gold just “feels” better in your hand than paper – yes agreed. However, that does not mean that is reality. There is a huge difference. It would be nice if we all got along. But we do not. A lion will kill to eat. That is nature. We cannot live in a dream world. Some people are vegetarians. That makes them personally “feel” good. It will not stop the lion from killing you when it is hungry. Understanding gold is the same.

Whenever markets peak, immediately thereafter, the human emotions involved are in a state of denial. The gold promoters have thrown everything from fiat to systemic manipulation as the reason why they are right yet the market moves against them. The very same state of denial dominated the atmosphere for the first 3 years in Japan following the 1989.95 bubble top. I became famous in Japan because I simply said sorry – the government will not be able to prevent the decline.

In Australia back in 1989, there too, the analytical crowd touted that the A$ would collapse because of the current account deficit. I stood up and said wrong. The A$ would rally not decline and the current account deficit was expanding BECAUSE of the foreign investment into Australia that sent the A$ higher. The economic community fails to understand capital flows and is clueless about even the accounting system. This is why Milton Friedman came to see me lecture in Chicago. He grasped what I was saying and could see it in his mind’s eye. Milton encouraged me to speak out and could see I had a front row seat.

The MAJORITY must be wrong. That is what makes the markets move. The rally in gold from 1999 was simply a realignment with gold rising to keep pace with value on a marginal basis. I was blamed for creating the takeover boom of the ’80s because I was advising many of the takeover traders. I was lecturing around the world showing the Dow Jones Industrials from the book value viewpoint and demonstrated that the market was seriously undervalued as the Private Wave began in 1985. I illustrated that you could buy a company, sell all its assets, and double your money. That showed the market was UNDERVALUED and not OVERVALUED. The 1987 Rally was like gold up for 13 years. It was the beginning not the end of a readjustment. We forecast that the 1987 Crash was the low and new highs would be made by 1989. Again, the majority were calling for a 90% drop in the Dow. They were wrong as always.

That was why when the Dow was at 1,000 we forecast it would rise to 6,000 over the next 10 years and 12,000 26 years from the 1974 low. The Dow reached the 6,000 level in 1996 and 26 years after the 1974 low we reached 11908 in 2000. Sorry, we were off by 100 points but the timing was correct. With systemic inflation that ALWAYS infects money even when it was coin, assets rise in proportion to the supply of money over time. It is not an immediate trend. There are lagging periods and then abrupt readjustments. The rally in the Dow from 1985 into 2000 was the first stage of this readjustment. Gold will do the same thing in time.

The rally in gold from 1999 was a readjustment. It was not a bull market in terms of real value – only nominal. What I mean by that is the simple fact that gold has not exceeded the 1980 high in real terms. That requires gold to exceed $2,300. So the BULL MARKET in gold, like I have just described in the Dow, has yet to take place. The gold promoters have no sense of timing or how markets even move. They were just selling product in which they were conflicted with self-interest. That puts them in the category of simply a state of denial and every uptick is real with every down tick being a manipulation. That is nonsense and all markets oscillate up and down. The Dow readjusted when the ECM turned from PUBLIC to PRIVATE – not before. This is not stuff that can be determined by personal opinion. Nobody can forecast looking at fundamentals. The markets respond on an interlinked basis. This is why the majority must be WRONG when society tries to reduce every move to a single cause.

We have only two possibilities. (1) We get the phase transition in the Dow now going into 2015.75 whereby the Dow nearly doubles in value creating the bubble top, or (2) the Phase Transition is postponed into 2025 for the next 8.6 year wave. This depends upon the debt crisis. If we see the sovereign debt unravel now, then capital will flee into tangibles. There will not be the flight to quality so sovereign debt will not be the alternative but tangible assets. Thus, gold will rally at that time in place of government bonds. Because there is little gold at the current price relative to the cash, its price must rise to the price level in the $5,000 area.

If we back off and do not get the Phase Transition in the Dow going into 2015.75, then it is postponed until the next wave looking at 2025 for the high. We will address this in a special report.

Conspiracy

This has nothing to do with fiat and all the stories spun around selling gold. It is simply an asset. If you were to actually extend into a Mad Max event, then gold loses all value and we return to food as money. We MUST begin to understand the mechanism by which society functions. Stop the BS – open your eyes – understand that you cannot get x without y moving as well. So the gold promoters become their own worst enemy just as the Ministry of Finance in Japan. Once people saw they could not prevent the decline, they lost faith in government. The reason gold will rally is rooted in the debt crisis. Forget the fiat nonsense, hyperinflation, systemic manipulations. Who cares if there is gold in Fort Knox? Do you really think they will admit that anyway? You might as well be wearing your tin foil hat because that is no reason to buy gold. Those that put out those stories cannot prove what they say. It is just nonsense if it cannot be fact. If you buy gold on BS, then you will also not sell when it is time to take a profit. It is a market – trade it. Money is only a medium of exchange. It rises in purchasing power during economic declines and falls during economic booms. That is it regardless of what it might be. Get over it!

biggest loss in full-time jobs...

in over a year - not good:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/obamacare-strikes-part-time-jobs-surge-all-time-high-full-time-jobs-plunge-240000

today's jobs numbers stunk...

and to think otherwise is to not know the facts - or intentionally overlook them - neither of which is wise:

ShadowStats:
- Full-Time Employment Plunged by 240,000 in June
- Economic Issues Accounted for 75% of Gain in Part-Time Employment
- Number of Short-Term Discouraged Workers Increased by 197,000
- June Unemployment: 7.6% (U.3), 14.3% (U.6), 23.4% (ShadowStats)
- Payroll Gains Were Warped Heavily by Inconsistent Seasonal Factors

From Zero Hedge.
As a reminder: jobs have quantity and quality components. The quantity component was good enough to convince the 10 Year the taper is imminent (if not stocks, which continue to trade dislocated from any and all fundamentals). But how about the quality? In a word: not good. In June, the household survey reported that part-time jobs soared by 360,000 to 28,059,000 - an all time record high. Full time jobs? Down 240,000. And looking back at the entire year, so far in 2013, just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. And there is your jobs "quality" leading to today's market euphoria (if only for now).

Survive this gold and silver...

blistering and there will be big rewards IMO. The bubble phase is yet to come - but it appears set to go according to this:

http://www.munknee.com/aden-forecast-bubble-phase-in-gold-to-begin-in-2013-and-possibly-reach/

still surviving but gold...

and silver stocks sure took a hit. Still holding some so feeling some pain - but going to keep holding and betting on a very, very strong rebound.

Alf Fields breaks his silence...

Elliott Wave Gold Update: In the article “What Happened to Gold” dated 1 march 2012, the “other possibilities” mentioned in the event of gold dropping below $1650 related firstly to the 61.8% retracement of the prior rise. The prior rise was from $1523 to $1792, so the 61.8% retracement was $1626. There was a further possibility of the retracement being 2/3 of the prior rise, also a Fibonacci relationship. That produced a figure of $1612. The first number $1626 did provide some support to the market but the absolute low was $1612.8 on 4 April 2012. This low came at the culmination of a double zig-zag correction, which adds to the validity of that low. The odds now suggest that the gold correction bottomed at $1612.8 on 4 April 2012 and that the gold market is in the early stages of a sharp upward move.

Alf Field

28 April 2012

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1335717000.php

Best bet is to simply buy cull pre 1964 silver coinage. 90 percent silver. Dimes are best for barter in a SHTF scenario. Oil job

GORO: Gold Resource Corporation. Minting dividend coins.

been waiting for silver low...

and following EW theory and Alf Fields. This guy tries to pick up where Fields left off since Fields hasn't posted for a while. He thinks silver has likely bottomed and heading much higher.

"Comments (25 April 2012): There are a number of indicators that today was the low in silver:

1. Climax selling volume.
2. Elliott Wave has reached the -21% level.
3. Spike low and an extremely bullish DRAGONFLY DOJI on the daily chart.
4. Price behavior nearly exact inverse of topping (37.58) action.
5. Mining stocks gained rather than continuing fall.
6. Gold/silver ratio gap at 54 closed.
7. One-year anniversary of silver high at 49.82.
8. No more FOMC until June.
9. Most importantly, this chart demonstrates that silver reached a key Fibonacci level.

Low point will be confirmed when silver breaks out above the two downtrend lines (currently near 31.60 and 32.50). Price targets will then be gold 2100 and silver 50 via inverse H&S. "

http://www.xaviercromartie.com/2012/02/tracking-silver-elliott-waves-major-iii.html

I know of none - but can you please...

provide the name of the company proposing to do so - I may be a buyer. In buying mode right now.

Can anybody identify any gold or silver mining stocks paying in-kind dividends? I know there is one Mexican company proposing to do so, but not actually paying the dividends yet in actual gold or silver. Oiljob

New EW Silver Discovery
Alf Field
|
February 1, 2012 - 1:24pm
http://www.silverseek.com/article/new-ew-silver-discovery

I have received numerous emails asking about silver. This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct. The question caused me to take a closer look at silver.

The reason why I have written very little about silver in the past was because the beautiful Elliott Wave (EW) symmetry and predictable relationships visible in gold were not to be found in silver. This article reveals a new EW discovery that proves that EW is alive and well and living in silver.

I first wrote about silver in December 2003 in an article titled “US Dollar Implosion – Part II”. The link to this article is at: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/field120503.html. The brief piece on silver was tacked onto the end of that article. In view of its brevity, the 2003 silver piece is reproduced in full below:

SILVER



“In past crises, the wealthy protected themselves by purchasing gold and gold related assets. Ordinary people, by far the greater number, could rarely afford to buy gold. Being far cheaper, they previously had to buy silver. This metal became the poor man's choice as an asset to protect their savings. Silver has so far lagged gold in the early stages of this bull market, but that situation seems about to change.”

“Throughout recorded history the average relationship between silver and gold has been 15oz silver to 1oz gold. The ratio at present is a far higher 75:1 ($400/$5.30). This is massively out of line. If gold were to double to $800 per oz, it would not be unreasonable to expect the silver/gold ratio to decline sharply, possibly as low as 40:1. With gold at $800, this would position silver at $20.

Thus a 100% increase in the price of gold could possibly be accompanied by a simultaneous 400% increase (perhaps more) in the price of silver. This offers significant opportunities both in silver bullion and silver mining shares.

The above graph of the price of silver has been borrowed from an excellent recent article by Dan Norcini entitled "A Technical Look at Silver - Update". What is quite clear from the graph is that silver's 22-year bear market down trend has come to an end. As Dan Norcini says, a new bull market in silver has been born. It is difficult to argue against this contention and I have no intention of doing so. A silver price above $6.80 would complete a fabulous head-and-shoulders base formation. With this as a foundation, it would be possible to project a very large rise in the price of silver for the future.” – end of the December 2003 quotation.

Silver did reach $20.68 in March 2008 at the same time that gold peaked at $1003. The silver to gold ratio was thus 48.5 in March 2008. The lowest this ratio has reached SINCE 2001 is about 32, achieved at the end of April 2011 when gold was around $1570 and silver peaked in the $49 area. At that point gold had experienced a 6-fold increase from its bull market starting point of $255 while the silver price rose 12-fold from its starting point of $4 in November 2001.

The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).

This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?

Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.

Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.

The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.



The analysis of the suggested Major ONE wave is set out in the body of the chart. The typical impulse wave relationships are immediately apparent. Both corrective waves 2 and 4 are similar (-33.7% and -35.9%). Whenever two corrective waves are similar it is a signal that they are part of the same larger wave structure. On its own, this fact would confirm that the 5 wave move from $4.02 to $20.68 was a complete wave of larger degree.

There is further corroborating evidence. Waves 1 and 5 are similar at +106% and +115%, a usual EW feature. Wave 3 should be the longest wave, and it is at +171%. In addition, if one multiplies the gain in wave 1 of +106% by 1.618 it produces 171.5%, exactly the gain in wave 3. These relationships are evidence that the rise from $4.02 to $20.68 is a completed impulse wave and that we can call it Major ONE.

Having completed this 5 wave up move, the next correction in Major TWO would be expected to be one degree larger than the two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% in Major ONE. As shown on the chart, Major TWO declined from $20.68 to $8.77, a loss of -57.6%. The two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% are close to the Fibonacci 34. The next higher number in the sequence is 55, close to the actual decline of 57.6% in major TWO. Incidentally, if we take the 35.9% decline and multiply it by 1.618, it gives a figure of 58%, very close to the actual decline of 57.6%.

These relationships suggest that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.

How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%!

This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver!

We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.

A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out.

A further word of caution: silver is not for the faint hearted. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold and the corrections are much larger. Silver corrections can and do happen quickly. They are emotionally gut-wrenching and it is easy to get shaken out of one’s position near the bottom of a large correction.

Alf Field

1 February 2012

Comments to ajfield@attglobal.net

Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement: The author has personal investments in gold and silver bullion, as well as in gold, silver, uranium and base metal mining shares. The author’s objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article.

latest from Schiff...

"Rather than the bursting of a bubble, the recent technical action in gold is more indicative of a break-out. In fact, the positive divergence of gold stock from bullion in this recent correction is evidence that a more powerful leg in this bull market is about to begin. Up until now, the market for gold stocks has been characterized by fear. However, it now appears to me that gold stocks will make a new high before the metal itself. If the stocks finally begin to lead the metal, it means traders are finally starting to believe in this rally. Rather than evidencing the end of the trend, such a shift in sentiment likely indicates an acceleration in that trend. Maybe when the last skeptic finally throws in the towel, we may finally get the blow-off top Gartman thinks already occurred - but that day is likely many years into the future."

sure looks like the official...

Economic Crisis number 2. Gold and Silver and related stocks still the place to be. Got a feeling that this is the big one for gold and silver stocks over the next few months. When the money flows back into the market - they should see much more of it.

still around, still holding...

gold and silver stocks to the hilt. Waiting patiently - thinking this is a good launching point to new highs - but have thought that several times before and been wrong.

Comet Elenin, your economy, and greedy fk'n banksters.
http://eleninandbankers.webs.com/

Another Way to Look at Cheap Gold Stocks

By Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report
Friday, May 20, 2011

The gold sector looks ready to bounce.

It's been a rough year for gold stocks. Even though the price of gold is up 5% so far in 2011 (near $1,500 an ounce), gold stocks are underwater. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for example, is down about 10% for the year.

And as my colleague Steve Sjuggerud pointed out, you see the same pattern over the longer term, too:

Over the last three years, the price of gold is up over 60%... But gold stocks (as measured by the big gold stock fund GDX) are up less than 20%.

This action has a lot of gold stock investors scratching their heads.

With the commodities complex selling off a bit recently in reaction to a bouncing dollar, many gold bugs are throwing in the towel. They're selling their stocks. And in the process, they're creating some bargains in the gold sector.

Lots of big-name gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) are trading at historically low valuations. The gold sector itself trades at a discount to the S&P 500. The dividend yields on many of the larger companies are higher than the rate on two-year Treasurys.

You don't often see gold stocks trading this cheap. The sector is approaching oversold levels and is at least due for at a short-term bounce.

Take a look at this chart of the gold sector bullish percent index (BPGDM)...

A bullish percent index (BPI) is a measure of overbought and oversold conditions for a market sector. A sector is overbought when the BPI runs above 80, and it's oversold when the BPI drops below 30. Typically, the best time to buy into a sector is after the BPI has reached oversold levels and starts to move higher.
As you can see from the chart above, the best buying opportunity of the past two years for gold stocks was in February 2010 (the blue circle).
Of course, we don't always have to wait for the "best" time to buy to take advantage of opportunities. The red circles on the chart indicate "good" spots to jump into the gold sector. Each spot occurred right after a deep decline in the sector and proceeded with a sharp rally higher. The BPI dropped sharply each time, but didn't quite fall to "oversold" levels.
Look at how GDX behaved each time...

So while the best time to jump into the gold sector is when the BPI drops below 30 and turns higher, the BPI can point out other good times to buy, too. I believe we're approaching one of those times right now.
The gold sector bullish percent index is acting similar to how it was last year. It bottomed in late January/early February... ran higher for a few months... then dropped hard in May. That action led to a bounce in the sector that popped GDX 15% higher in one month.

That's the sort of bounce we should see this year as well.
It's certainly possible, however, that the gold sector will just keep dropping until the BPGDM drops below 30 and the sector becomes officially oversold. You'll want to have plenty of cash available to buy gold stocks if we ever get to that point.
But given the bargain basement pricing of many gold stocks, it's worth it to take a small bullish position in the sector right now.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark

http://gold-dinar.blogspot.com/2011/05/another-way-to-look-at-cheap-gold.html

Peter Schiff on gold and silver miners...

"be patient.." "these stocks are going to go ballistic"

May 19, 2011

With gold off the lows and silver trading higher, today King World News interviewed Peter Schiff CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Europacific Capital. When asked about the pullback in gold Schiff remarked, “I think it’s a buying opportunity...I do believe the US economy is slowing down, in fact I think it’s going to slow a lot more than people realize. But for that reason I think that quantitive easing will not end over the summer, in fact I think the Fed is going to step it up. QE3 could be even bigger than QE2 and that’s very bullish for precious metals and very bearish for the dollar.”

When asked about the Mexican central bank purchase of 100 tons of gold Schiff replied, “What surprises me is that more central banks aren’t buying even more gold. Central banks are loaded up with depreciating dollars, they need to buy gold instead. The crazy thing is that I’m even hearing talk about the US selling its gold to help fund its debts. That would be the worst thing we could do. The last thing we would want to sell is our gold, I mean if we sold that then that would be it, we would have nothing. The dollar would just become complete confetti.”

When asked about silver specifically Schiff stated, “Remember it went up to $50 from $30 almost as fast as it came down. I think if you just take a look at the long-term trajectory it’s still a big bull market. I think that $50 high is not going to hold...We are going to take that ($50 high) out and move a lot higher. We are suckering a lot of new short sellers into the market as people are comparing it to a bubble now or 1980, the Hunt Brothers. I don’t think what we’ve had so far is anywhere close to what happened in 1980. We might get to that point at some time in the future, but we’re not there yet.

We’ve created sufficient nervousness and anxiety in the market and enough shorts that we should have a nice wall of worry that we can climb, and ultimately a pretty good short covering rally. I think a lot of the people who have shorted this selloff in silver are going to lose a lot of money...We could have a dollar crisis as early as this fall and if we are having a dollar crisis then I would be expecting silver prices to be making new highs.”

Regarding mining shares Schiff had this to say, “A lot of these juniors are lower than they were five years ago, some of them are lower than they were ten years ago. You wouldn’t even know that we are in a bull market in gold, you’d think it was still a bear market. I own a lot of them and not a single one of them has ever split. To me it doesn’t sound like a bull market when you don’t have any of your stocks splitting and I’ve owned them for ten years. You remember the internet stocks, I mean there were internet stocks splitting every week. There’s no bubble activity going on in these mining stocks, hardly anybody owns them.”

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/19_Peter_Schiff_files/Peter%20Schiff%205%3A19%3A2011.mp3

or

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/19_Peter_Schiff.html

2011 RANKING OF COUNTRIES FOR MINING INVESTMENT...

http://www.miningminnesota.com/uploads/2011_Country_Ranking.pdf

and this guy says stocks not rising...

due to financing: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1303748818.php

The Coming Junior Stock Eruption

-- Posted Monday, 25 April 2011 |Source: GoldSeek.com

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

The junior market is on the verge of blowing up like a “Coke geyser.”

If you’re not one of the 13 million views of what happens when Mentos are dropped into a bottle of Diet Coke, you should know it creates an eruption of foam reaching as high as 20 feet.

That’s exactly what the junior market is set to do soon.

Could it Get Any Better?

The junior market hasn’t performed as well as should be expected over the last few months.

There are, as always, the few special situations that have done very well.

The overall market, however, has lagged significantly while the fundamentals say it should be setting new highs along with gold, silver and oil. But it hasn’t.

The table below breaks down the return of various assets since the start of the year:

This should be “Prime Time” for junior stocks that are often so highly leveraged to the prices of the gold, silver, and oil. But junior stocks have performed more poorly than almost any other related asset.

There are a number of factors one could easily point to for this lag. The Japan earthquake and financial fallout devastated junior stocks. Mr. Market believes gold and silver have run too far, too fast. Overall economic sentiment has taken a turn for the worse.

But they’re all wrong. The TSX Venture Index has fully recovered from the post-Japan sell-off. Gold and silver prices are still well below their inflation-adjusted historical highs and low for the current (and widely expected) negative real interest rates. Economic sentiment has never fully recovered from 2008.

The real reason for the lagging performance, I believe is much simpler. And it’s creating a great and predictable opportunity.

History Repeats

Every year the TSX Venture goes through a similar seasonal cycle.

For example, last year the TSX Venture Index fell 19% between March and July. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and oil fell 3%, 2%, and 8% respectively over the same time period.

The current lag in the TSX Venture Index happens every spring and it has a simple explanation - financings.

Junior resource companies issue new shares year round, but most deals are completed in the late fall and winter. November through February is the peak financing period.

The trend hasn’t changed this year either. The only real difference is that the total value of financing deals completed was much higher.

The table below shows how TSX Venture financings between November and February increased by 80% compared to the same period the year before:

The massive amount of financings (most with four month hold periods) is the most critical drag on the overall TSX Venture market.

With more than $5 billion worth of stock (that’s excluding an increase in value of shares and value of attached warrants) coming free trading, there’s a lot to soak up. After all, the total market value of the TSX Venture market is about $80 billion. So a $5 billion wall creates a big hurdle.

What’s happening right now is the financial equivalent of dropping Mentos into a bottle of Diet Coke and putting a cap on it. The cap is going to hold for a while, but it’s going to explode higher and faster when it does. That’s why we’re seeing this as buying season for juniors.

A Catalyst for Change

There are multiple catalysts to blow the lid off of the junior market.

There are major new discoveries being made every at the rate of once or twice per year.

Drilling season in the Yukon is about to get started and if another discovery is made, there’s going to be some big speculative premiums on almost all Yukon-focused junior gold companies.

Also, as time goes by, there will be less shares coming on the market. TSX Venture financing deals peaked last December. Those are just coming free trading now. January and February were lighter activity months and have left a smaller wall. In the end, all of these deals will be unlocked by July anyways. It’s just a matter of time.

Any way you look at it, the junior market is poised to explode over the next few months and finish the year incredibly strongly if gold and silver prices hold together.

Even if they don’t correct too hard (imagine $1450 gold and $40 silver), conditions would be exceptionally positive for junior resource stocks to do well.

Remember, oil, gold, and silver prices fell between 2% and 8% during the same period last year while the TSX Venture fell 19%.

Currently the inverse is about to happen – only an order of magnitude larger. Gold, silver, and oil prices are up significantly between 9% and 50%. But the TSX Venture index is actually down despite the most optimal conditions.

Everything is in place for a big jump in junior resource stocks and conditions will likely continue to be in the coming months (more reasons why available here). There may be an inclination to sell in May and go away, but the seasonal nature of the junior market is making it a much better time to be a buyer.

Good investing,

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

there will be blood...

somewhere, and soon. It's either going to be the silver shorts, or the large buyers getting into silver at these prices.

Dan Norcini articulates it well - and have seen some others confirm what he is seeing - and that is = silver has risen dramatically and yet the large shorts are not covering, but instead, increasing their short positions.

These large shorts are dealing with huge losses, and yet instead of giving in and accepting their huge loss with the hope of surviving, it appears they are putting themselves in (and likely already there) a do or die position. This cannot end well for someone.

There will be hell to pay for the losers.

See Norcini's words below on what the shorts may be feeling and check out his full description of the deadly game being played (I have also experienced these emotions and they are indeed horrid): http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

"Having been on the wrong side of a market at various times in my career I can tell you from firsthand experience, the emotions that one deals with run the gamut from fear to despair to panic and total desperation. It is a horrid thing to live through mainly because the losses mount at such a rapid clip. What makes matters worse is that you keep waiting for a setback in price, any setback, to try to buy back those shorts and it never seems to come. Prices just keep going up and up and up and up. You learn very quickly the terrible, awful power of leverage gone awry."

upbeat outlook on gold stocks...

to say the least:

* Call yourself a believer. Gold is going much higher. The performance of gold stocks is probably about to stun the gold community with a powerful up move during what is seasonally the worst time of the year. The underlying reality is there is not enough gold. I think junior mining shares are a near “slam dunk”, for the rest of 2011!

* On Monday price fell hard and then bounced right back. Expect this type of strength and volatility to increase in coming months. Notice where the bounce took place, right on the volume based support (VBS). This move is a volume-powered move, and foretells of new highs coming.

* Get ready for the greatest short covering rally in decades. It will light your hair on fire, or at least the hair of those who are short gold stocks. John Embry talks about the invisible hand. I think sellers simply overwhelm buyers, and these lower prices are nothing more than a gift to you from them!

* I stand on the facts; gold stocks are absolutely the greatest bargain on the street. I am accumulating the mining shares, and I issued a new buy was issued on GDX on Monday. Price plunged and closed dramatically higher on the day, a very bullish move.

* As the sideways grind has continued for over the last six months I have continued to trade these shares with my signals. Volatility has been your friend, not your enemy. That friendship is set to increase!

* I am confident that my GDX target of $72 will be hit. The target is based upon my SFS Gold Stock Ratio. From there I am looking for $80.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt042211.html

one way for silver and gold stocks...

to outsmart their shorters and doubters is to either up their dividends or start paying one - look for SLW to up their dividend and start a trend.

Now - investors need to put pressure on them to do so IMO.

Jim Sinclair...

wise words???

Dear Jim,

As gold and silver continue bull runs, do you have any concern the Comex may invoke extraordinary measures prohibiting any new long positions? This was done to force liquidation of the Hunt Brothers silver positions.

There is a lot of speculation some bullion banks are trapped in heavy short positions. Because you were personally involved in resolving the Hunt Brothers/Comex issues, we CIGAs would greatly appreciate your views on this subject.

CIGA Doug

Dear Doug,

That was a unilateral novation of a contract which is illegal under contract law. They got away with it in the 80s but would probably not get away with it now. Really that means nothing to the long that never sees his silver or gold.

Litigation would break the exchange as a subsidiary of a major corporation, in time resulting in the longs and shorts establishing losses and gains on paper in court at the close of the day, a meaningless exercise that would screw the longs and the shorts in bankruptcy. This would cause a run on gold and silver paper delivery ETFs. It would also shift big money into gold and silver shares.

If you really want gold and you hold futures, you had better take delivery soon.

Regards,
Jim

Gold Stocks and Bear Markets...
(oldy but goody)

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

When Gold is in a bull market, so are Gold stocks. There are always exceptions in markets and anyone who looks hard enough can find weeks or even months when Gold is going up and Gold stocks aren't. Speculating isn't easy, to be sure. But one tends to play the odds to maximize one's chances of success when trading or investing.

If you think Gold is going up, then you're safe 8 times out of 10 investing in Gold stocks. It's not 100% and the exceptions generally relate to times when Gold is not in a secular bull market and during market crashes or mini-crashes. Gold is in a secular bull market, so we don't have to worry about this first item. But focusing on the second item, this is what happened to Gold stocks in the Great Fall Panic of 2008 (which the federal reserve and Treasury were absolutely, entirely and irrefutably unable to stop). Ironically, at times like this past fall's panic, the fundamentals for Gold stocks tends to improve rapidly while they are tanking (due to an increasing Gold to commodities ratio during the crash).

But what about Gold stocks during a bear market? If the Dow Jones and/or S&P 500 enters a new leg in this general stock bear market (which is far from over), can Gold stocks still go up? Doesn't a falling market drag all stocks down with it? In the case of Gold stocks, the answer is an emphatic NO!

There are so many examples in history that I will resort to the same old pictures and charts I show every time I am asked this question. The easiest to relate to are those from recent history, no? Before the current bear market that began in the fall of 2007, the last bear market we had was from 2000-2003. Ignoring the NASDAQ, which was a tulip mania sort of collapse, and focusing instead on the S&P 500 index yields information that I believe is highly relevant to the current situation.

Here's a chart of the last bear market from 2000-2003, plotting the S&P 500 (candlestick plot) versus the unhedged Gold Bug Mining Index ($HUI - the black linear plot):



The old adage that Gold stocks rise and fall with the stock market is dismissed as false by even a casual perusal of the actual data. Now, it is true that when the stock market really tanks fast, everything is thrown out in a panic sell off. If you think a market crash is dead ahead, don't buy Gold stocks. I don't think we're due for another crash any time soon. The first leg down, if you believe in Elliott Wave theory, is not the vicious leg down, the 3rd wave down is. In other words, we have a 1st leg down in the bear market, then a bounce into the spring, then we may have a crash-like scenario or at least a vicious drop. The fireworks aren't likely to get started immediately.

And, of course, everyone likes to talk about the worst bear market in the last 100 years, the 1929-1932 bear that claimed 89% of the Dow Jones as its victim. Even if a replay of this scenario is coming, the favorite blue chip senior Gold miner of the time, Homestake Mining, simply yawned once it made it through the 1929 crash and made its way slowly higher in spite of the carnage in the stock market (chart stolen from the Long Wave Group - check out their site if you are into Gold and/or the Kondratieff Cycle):



If a popular blue chip Gold miner can gain 50% during a 90% drop in the stock market, I'd say Gold stocks have the possibility of bucking the stock market bear that I believe is far from over. And how about the 1970s? The best chart I can show you is from the 1973-1975 bear market. During this time, the S&P 500 lost about 50% and here's what happened to a major Gold mining stock index (Barron's Gold Mining Index [BGMI], chart stolen from sharelynx.com):



Some things I have learned by experience and by looking at past historical periods when Gold stocks are in a secular bull market (like now):

1. Gold stocks often fall with stocks during the initial portion of a cyclical stock bear market (i.e. 1929, 2000, 2008) but then start marching to their own drummer.
2. Gold stocks do not survive true market crashes or panics but can rise SIGNIFICANTLY even in the midst of SEVERE bear markets.
3. The steepest and fastest part of a stock bear market tends to coincide with corrections in the Gold stock sector.

So, in my humble estimation, the stock bear market is going to take a few months to get a head of steam up for its next leg down. During that time, once this brief Gold and Gold stock correction is over (I suspect before December is over), I believe both Gold and Gold stocks will EXPLODE HIGHER EVEN IF THE STOCK MARKET GOES LOWER.

This is my thesis. It is backed by actual facts and data from relevant history. If I am wrong and you lose all your money speculating based on the homework I did, I will refund your subscription fees (but not the money you lost...). If it is any consolation to those bullish on Gold and Gold stocks, I will be 100% invested in Gold and Gold stocks (with a small exposure to silver and silver stocks) from the long side before December is over.

My "dream" scenario is to ride the Gold bull higher into the March to May 2010 time frame, then sell Gold stocks and switch to shorting the stock market to catch the juiciest part down of the bear market leg in general stocks that I still think is coming. My physical Gold is not for sale until the Dow to Gold ratio gets to 2 or less.

As far as the shorter term, the current correction is likely almost over in price but needs a little more time if history is a guide. I may well start buying before the end of the week.

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-stocks-and-bear-markets.html

and yet another viewpoint posted today...

Why Gold Stocks are Struggling Despite Record Gold Price

-- Posted Monday, 18 April 2011 | Source: GoldSeek.com

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Gold looks fantastic. It is breaking away from a consolidation which could be called a running correction. Two weeks ago Gold broke to a new high. Last week Gold retested the breakout and then advanced to another new high at the end of the week. Its textbook bullish action. Yet the gold shares have really struggled.

Last week the shares failed to make a new high and underperformed badly. GDX never broke to a new high and is below its December high. GDXJ did break to a new high but is now at its December high. Gold is nearing $1500. Its December high was $1425.

There are real reasons for these divergences. Some peers think its the hedge funds shorting the shares or manipulating the market either intentionally or unintentionally. Some think its manipulation by the powers that be. The fact is, these assertions have not been proven and there are some fundamental reasons for the divergence.

The price of Oil comprises about one quarter of the cost of mining. Remember 2007-2008 when the gold stocks badly underperformed? Part of that was because Oil went from $60 to $150. Sure the Gold/Oil ratio is now well above its highs from 2000-2008, but since the summer of 2010 its decreased from 17 to 13. That will cut into margins this year.

Secondly (and we’ve written about this before), the Canadian gold price is up only 13% since its peak in February 2009 and up only 7% since last June. Most gold companies are Canadian companies. Its the Canadian price that is more important to them. Thus, a weak US dollar eventually negatively impacts gold producers.

The gold shares have underperformed a rising price of Gold in the past. We saw it in 2004 and also in 2007-2008. It generally precedes corrections and that is a reason to be cautious beyond the short-term, which looks positive. It is not manipulation or intervention. The proof this time is that all gold shares (seniors, mid-tiers and juniors) are now under-performing.

We’ve noted the fundamental considerations but maybe the market knows something else we don’t. Perhaps the market senses a top in equities? Perhaps the market sees an intermediate term top ahead for Gold and Silver? Perhaps the market thinks the shares will struggle in the seasonally weakest period of the year?

We are short-term bulls but cannot be too bullish with the broad divergence between the shares and the metal. In this bull market, this divergence has always resolved itself with a correction in the sector. Sure it could be different this time but we think not. For more analysis like this and professional guidance, consider a free 14-day trial to our service.

Jordan Roy-Byrne,CMT
Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

previous 2 posts indicate...

that mining shares may take off in near future - of course that's what hope. Have done lots of searching over past few weeks to try to figure out why mining shares haven't appeared to shoot up along side of gold and silver prices - Dan Norcini is pondering the same issue and will likely have more on this in coming days and weeks. Right now his theory is that it won't last - but just never know.

Hedge Fund Ratio Spread Trades Continue to Distort the Value of the Mining Shares

Dan Norcini

I hope to have further on this topic sometime this weekend depending on time constraints but I wanted to at least get some charts up to demonstrate how severely undervalued many of the mining shares are in relation to the underlying metal as a result of the plying of this particular trading strategy.

One of the factors that I believe are involved with this severe underperformance of the shares in general is the advent of the ETF's. Those who want LEVERAGED EXPOSURE to either or both gold and silver can now use the ETF's to do so.

Formerly, there were two methods available - commodity futures or mining shares. Since the charters of some funds prevents them from investing or trading in commodity futures, funds who wanted this leveraged exposure to the metals were forced to go into the mining shares in the past. That implied that bull markets in the metals were going to see substantial money flows coming into the shares.

Since the ETF's came along, those institutions looking for leveraged exposure to gold can now directly purchase the silver or gold ETF's instead and margin those up to obtain leverage. In other words, they are no longer captive to using only the mining shares.

Additionally, the hedge funds, which have proliferated like mushrooms after a summer rain, are able to offer prospective clients exposure to the commodity markets since there is nothing in their charters preventing them from investing in the commodity markets. That attracts further funds that in time past would have flowed into the mining sector directly.

Keep in mind what is necessary to drive prices higher - sustained investment flows. Now, if the investment flows that formerly would be diverted directly to the mining shares have been split and are now moving directly into the commodity futures markets and the ETF's, that pulls a portion away from the shares. That means that there is a bit of an exploitable weakness, a chink in the armor if you will, in the sense that the amount of firepower coming into the shares, is weaker when compared to the other alternative forums for investing in the precious metals.

The hedge funds understanding this then employ a strategy designed to take advantage of the "weaker sister" which suffers somewhat from the smaller money flows heading its direction - they short some of the mining shares while buying the commodity futures and the ETF's. That selling then further absorbs the buying interest that is still heading into the mining sector shares.

The reason they do this is because it helps them manage their risk. When the market sells off in this volatile environment, they are able to profit from the short leg of this trade as the shares head lower generally at a faster rate than the metals themselves do. In other words, they might be losing $1.00 on their long gold or silver positions in the futures or ETF's, but making $1.10 - $1.20 on their short share position. In effect, they have a permanent put option.

This trade has been extremely effective for them which is why they seemingly refuse to give it up but at some point, the effect is to so distort the price of the mining shares in relation to the underlying metal, that something has to snap to bring the share price back in line to historical norms. After all, the higher the metals run in price, the more profitable the well run miners become. Stock prices are eventually determined by profits - Eventually some of the hedge funds plying this trade will begin to realize that they are pushing the trade too far and will begin to exit. That will set off a rush by the others to do the same.

We got a brief taste of this April 5 of this year when the HUI shot up nearly 30 points in a single day. That was the first sign that the days of this trade are drawing to a close. There is an old adage in the trading world which is apropos for this situation:

Bulls make money; Bears make money; but Pigs get slaughtered.

Hedgies beware. The time is coming when there are not going to be any sellers on the other side of your trade when you need to unwind it.

SIL (Silver Miners ETF) to Silver ratio...

from Dan Norcini

This one is very revealing as it contains silver miners. Its performance against silver since last year has been spectacular - if one can measure a poor showing in those terms (spectacularly poor).

SIL Top Ten Holdings

1. Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW): 12.74%
2. Industrias Penoles SAB de CV (PE&OLES): 11.10%
3. Fresnillo PLC (FRES): 10.44%
4. Pan American Silver Corporation (PAAS): 9.82%
5. First Majestic Silver Corp (AG): 6.86%
6. Coeur D'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE): 5.64%
7. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM): 5.22%
8. Hochschild Mining PLC (HOC): 4.45%
9. Hecla Mining Company (HL): 4.40%

you're welcome,thanks for ...

stopping by. I visit this site nearly every day and often use the links to browse what's going on from different view points.

OldPro, Thanks for spending the time to put this site together,

Have been investing in Silver for years,, Futures,,AGQ and SLW,,

About a year ago I Got into SHSH,, SFMI,, USSIF,,So far USSIF has been the best of the pennies moving along with the silver run,,Starcore looks interesting,, Thanks again , Geo

bought more SHVLF.pk...

and feeling good about it. Holding strong for gold $1650.

Evaluating Mining Stocks: Discovery Investing...

Wed, Mar 30, 2011

By Michael Montgomery—Exclusive to Gold Investing News

When considering investing in junior mining companies many factors must be taken into consideration. The majority of junior mining companies have no revenues or cash flows which makes evaluating them with traditional methods used for established companies less than ideal.

Gold Investing News spoke with Chris Berry, founder of House Mountain Partners, for their take on evaluating junior mining companies. Mr. Berry’s company has created a system for evaluating junior mining companies who lack the reputation of larger firms that have been established in the industry.

“We have pioneered an investment philosophy called ‘Discovery Investing.’ It’s a different approach to risk and is a road map that lends itself nicely to micro and small cap companies. We believe that all wealth creation begins with a discovery, whether it’s a gold deposit or a cure for cancer. With that in mind we look at 10 factors that are designed to evaluate junior companies,” stated Chris Berry.

In this article we will look at some of the most important aspects of discovery investing in determining the value and risk associated with investment in junior mining companies. The first of these is the main asset of the company you are evaluating, the size of their deposit. “Is this a world class deposit, is it a company maker? This is based traditionally on the grade and tonnage, and other intangibles such as the location of the deposit,” stated Berry.

The location of the deposit is also an important factor in determining investment; more specifically, is the deposit in a mining and business friendly environment? “If you have two similar deposits in terms of grade and tonnage, but one is located in Quebec, for example, and the other is in a central African country, then in my opinion the deposit in Quebec should have a higher valuation. This is due to geopolitical intangibles, such as the threat of expropriation and political instability,” stated Berry.

The ownership of the deposit is the next factor to consider. The control that the company in question holds over a deposit weighs heavily on future profits, and takeovers. What an investor should be looking for is if the company owns 100 percent of the asset and has no underlying royalties that they have to pay. Those types of deposits are somewhat rare, but it’s a best case scenario. In joint ventures you want to look at what the partner brings to the table, if they bring financial muscle, then that can defray potential share dilution,” stated Berry. A joint venture partner may also add its technical expertise to the venture which may be beneficial given the circumstance.

The experience and quality of the management may be one of the most important factors in considering investment in a company. Management can make or break a company’s long term potential. In relation to juniors that are looking to start production on an asset, it is beneficial to know if the management team has gone through the procedures before.

“The experience of management is key. Does the management have the financial and technical know-how to take a mining project to production if that is their stated goal? Generally, the longer management tenure in the mining industry, the better,” stated Berry.

The most efficient way to determine the expertise of the management team is to go directly to the company’s website to research the background of the officers. Mining companies welcome inquiries made to the Investor Relations staff concernint the company’s management background and other specifics of the firm.

The potential and the immediacy of production on the deposit is essential to realizing profits. The longer the process to get a mine into production, the greater the courage and patience of the investor to wait for cash flows to be generated.

In practicing due diligence the investor must determine if the project is a “new discovery where the company is ten years away from getting to production due to permitting and environmental studies, for instance. Or is it a company that has acquired a past producing mine in a good mining district that can monetize their asset more quickly,” stated Berry.

Looking into a company’s financial footing, especially in regards to juniors, is challenging as many of them have yet to begin generating cash flow. The financial soundness and sustainability of a company is an important aspect in determining investment.

“In the junior space, the one metric used for financial evaluation is ‘enterprise value.’ That takes the market cap of a company, adds in any debt, then subtracts out the cash. The reason why this is used is that enterprise value is typically referred to as the potential take-over value of a company,” stated Berry, adding, “if the company has a JORC estimate or a NI 43-101 resource estimate, then you can tell what the size of the resource is that company thinks they have in the ground. You can then do the math to determine what the company is worth relative to its peers in the market.”

In determining the value of a junior miner, take these criteria into consideration. Many are generating cash flow from producing on their deposits; in those circumstances traditional metrics on a company’s performance is a valid approach. It is up to the individual investor to practice due diligence in determining the merits of individual companies. When considering investment in firms that have yet to start production on their deposits it is also on the investor to have the fortitude to stay with a company with a lack of cash flow, and to be weary of companies that do not follow through on their promises and targets.

Why Central Banks of the West Hate Gold...

Posted: Mar 24 2011 By: Dan Norcini

For further market analysis and commentary, please see Trader Dan’s website at www.traderdan.net

Dear CIGAs,

I wanted to post some brief comments to let some of the newer readers understand why many of us believe that there is a war being waged upon gold by the Central Banks of the West.

Let me start this off by quoting from none other than former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan more than 40 years ago:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. … This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard

What the former Fed Chairman was then saying was that absent a gold standard or some device for restraining the unlimited creation of fiat money, there was nothing to impede monetary officials from engaging in such activity to the extent that it would ultimately set in motion a process of inflation, which is really just another name for the erosion of the purchasing power of a nation’s currency by debasing it. Inflation was and is in essence, the transfer of wealth from one class to another.

Today we have the Fed engaging in the very process that Greenspan warned against back then. We also have the BOJ and the ECB effectively doing the same thing to an extent.

Unlike Silver, Gold is the main metal that most analysts and commentators look to when attempting to decipher whether or not inflation is a serious problem. That means the reference point of gold has become a target for Central Banks which want the world to believe that they can create unlimited amounts of funny money with absolutely ZERO impact on inflation levels. In other words, that they can conjure up wealth and produce prosperity with the electronic equivalent of a printing press and produce no serious inflationary impact by so doing.

A rising gold debunks their hubristic assertions to the contrary for it stands as a silent witness testifying against them. This is the reason the yellow metal is despised by so many Central Banks. It mocks their policies and displays their folly for all the world to see. Central Bankers, being the demigods that they are, will tolerate no rivals to their claims of economic omniscience. You see they have actually come to believe that it is their own wisdom and foresight which enables them to see through the fog that hinders and impedes our economic progress and that they are in a unique position to provide the rest of us with lasting prosperity. They attempt to do this by basically providing or withdrawing liquidity as they in their wisdom judge best and by the setting or manipulation of interest rates.

Those of us who believe that it is free market capitalism and the industry and efforts of mankind that produce wealth and prosperity would beg to differ but that is another story altogether. I would add that it is my opinion that the world would be better off without this plague of locusts that actually devour a nation’s wealth but the fact is that they are here.

While they are here gold will attempt to move in such a manner that it either blesses or curses their policies. Now we all would love to have our policies approved by the vote of the market but what about those times in which the market frowns on our course of action and refuses to smile upon it? Why this is but a simple matter – attack the messenger! If one can somehow manage to keep the price of gold under wrap so that it does not move sharply higher then one can attempt to make the claim that inflation is not a serious problem. The comments usually go something like this:

"Well Jerry, we are looking at the gold price and from what we can see, that while it is definitely higher, it is not soaring out of control. The market may be pricing in some gradual inflation but the action in the gold price is telling us that any fears of inflation getting out of control are definitely unwarranted. Besides, we all agree that some inflation is a good thing because the alternative is deflation and no one wants to see that".

Imagine Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress saying that the current rise in prices of many goods is only "temporary" and "relatively modest" if the gold price were soaring beyond $1650 and higher! Do you think anyone would take anything that the Chairman said seriously? Copper can soar higher and most will not notice it. Even if it does, it is generally explained as a positive because we are told it is a sign of strong economic growth ahead. Crude oil and energy prices can rocket higher and that can be attributed to geopolitical unrest among oil producing nations. Food can rise sharply and everyone notices that but such things are often explained away by citing weather conditions, supply constraints, etc. but a rising gold price? How does one explain that away?

The only reason that gold has a sustained price rise is because of a lack of confidence in the monetary system. It does not rise sharply because of such things as jewelry demand or industrial demand – it rises when fear, distrust, doubt, suspicion and uncertainty over Central Bank policy reigns. It rises when REAL interest rates are negative and investors understand the insidious process of currency debauchment practiced by these monetary authorities is underway. It thus cries aloud and issues a warning to those who can hear it and what it shouts displeases many Central Bankers because they are among those who while they despise its message, are all too keenly able to hear that message.

Thus the messenger, the prophet, the oracle, must be silenced or at the very least, his message blunted, toned down, marginalized, trivialized by whatever means possible. The mechanism employed to do just this is a subject for another time and place. Suffice it to say for now, without the efforts by the monetary officials of the West to discredit gold, it would be trading considerably higher. Even at that however, the ancient metal of kings refuses to go quietly and docilely into the night. It will yet have the final say.

Jim Sinclair on 3/15/11...

Hello Jim,

I hope your arm is healing well. I spoke with you at the AGM. After reading Monty’s release yesterday I am concerned/interpreting that we should sell our stocks in U.S and Canada. If oil does rise won’t Canada with the so called petro dollar be a place to invest? I am from Canada and am concerned that if Japan’s nuclear situation worsens that the stock markets will crash. Is this his concern? Most of my holdings are in gold and silver.

If you have time I would once again be grateful for your help.

Best Regards

CIGA Giacomo

Dear Giacomo,

If most of your holding are in gold and silver you are not connected to the general equities except for a very short period of time.

Gold will trade at $1650 and better.

Regards,
Jim

still holding all gold and silver...

stocks strong - and will continue to do so. Believe both metals are heading higher.

Gerald Celente Food Riots & What to Expect in 2011

http://laboussole2012.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/gerald-celente-food-riots-what-to-expect-in-2011-audio-mp3/

Chinese Gold Demand Stuns London and Hong Kong Traders...

When asked about Chinese demand Norcini stated, “Your sources have been reporting for months that demand from Asia, particularly China has been staggering, especially as the market has moved lower. This FT story has simply confirmed what King World News has been reporting for months, and that your sources have been accurate.

It’s apparent to me that there has been a very large buyer in the gold market, particularly on moves down towards the low $1,300’s on gold. It is obvious now that China has in fact had an insatiable appetite for gold. This explains why we have had such a huge drop in open interest in the gold market, while gold has only fallen a mere 6%.

Open interest has fallen almost 30%, but as I said gold has only dropped 6%. Normally if you are a short in a market and you start to have an asset correct because of significant liquidation, you will see a precipitous drop in price. Given the sheer volume of contracts that has been liquidated, we should have seen a massive correction in gold. Instead it has stayed incredibly strong. You can see the footprints of the Chinese buyers, it is becoming very obvious to all of the players in the gold market, and this is causing the shorts to have to cover prematurely.

I think the key here Eric is that inflation is roaring out of control in Asia, particularly in China. While the western monetary authorities are doing their best to convince their citizens that inflation is not a serious problem, the reality is quite different. To quote Bernanke, ‘Fear of inflation is overstated.’ The citizens of Asia and other regions are not impressed with such statements. Those people have been buying gold and they will continue buying gold as long as inflation is alive and well and I see no end to that in the foreseeable future.”

As Dan Norcini said, King World News has reported on the massive Asian buying, particularly from China for many months. Norcini knows these markets well, having traded them for over two decades. He is now making note that there has been a significant change in the trading pattern of both the gold and silver markets.

Eric King
KingWorldNews.com

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/2/2_Chinese_Gold_Demand_Stuns_London_%26_Hong_Kong_Traders.html

Gerald Celente « Blame blah, China threat & Arab revolutions »

http://laboussole2012.wordpress.com/2011/02/01/gerald-celente-blame-blah-china-threat-arab-revolutions/

Chinese Central Bank Predicts 50%-60% Yuan Gain Next 10 Years

Jan. 26 2011 - 3:05 pm | 454 views | 0 recommendations | 1 comment
By ROBERT LENZNER

David Li, a member of the Chinese Central Bank Policy Committee, believes the Chinese currency– the yuan– will increase in value by 5%-6% a year against the dollar as a result of tightened monetary conditions in China. Li was interviewed in Davos, Switzerland on Bloomberg Television. at the opening of the World Economic Forum. He also emphasized the need to lower the cost of production in China, which a higher yuan would help by reducing the cost of natural resource imports.

A 5% to 6% increase in the value of the yuan in 2011 would be far greater than the gradual 3.6% change in the relationship during 2010. The Obama administration has been pressuring China to let its currency float more freely so as to reduce America’s trade imbalance with China and so increase our exports to China.

A higher value for the Chinese currency would also enable Chinese companies to more easily invest in the US and even make acquisitions that could in time increase the number of jobs, reducing our unemployment. But, economists have been warning not to pressure China– but to let its government take the initiative in its own timing to let the yuan float.

The most direct way to invest inn the Chinese currency is an ETF Wisdom Tree China Yuan(CYB), which is traded on the NYSE. It has assets of about $640 million, which it uses to buy forward contracts on the yuan. So, if the yuan appreciates by 5% to 6% a year, CYB should gain almost that amount each year as well.

holding tough during this...

gold and silver slide - and believing that it's temporary based on historic actions in the previous gold bull run. Note that during that run, gold and silver stocks hit their highs after gold and silver hit highs, so even if a top was hit (which don't think it was), would still expect related stocks to move higher in coming weeks/months.

We'll see - takes mental toughness to hold strong on big dips when sitting on big profits - but...no one really knows what comes next.

still holding strong on all gold and silver...

stocks - which isn't easy as tempted to take some profits and book them for the year - but - resisted thus far.

Waiting for gold at 1650 in early part of next year before evaluating selling.

yes, still holding...

they haven't uncovered the big discovery yet and did some dilution to finance exploration. They give periodic updates on their website that says it all better than I can. I'll continue to hold.

I think things will get real choppy here for gold and silver and their stocks - but I'm going to hold on until gold hits $1650 - that's the plan and sticking to it.

Are you still holding KLSVF.PK? Do you know of any reason why it is not doing as well as the other silver miners? Thanks

Nope, no end in sight to government foolishness.