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OEDV-Osage Exploration and Development Announces 2013 Financial and Operational Results
9:30a ET March 31, 2014 (Business Wire) Print
Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. (OTCBB:OEDV), an independent exploration and production company focused on the Horizontal Mississippian and Woodford plays in Oklahoma, reported today its operational and financial results for 2013. The Company reported year-over-year triple digit growth in oil production, natural gas production, proved reserves, and revenues.
The full text of the Company's Form 10-K for 2013 is available on the SEC EDGAR system or on Osage's website: http://www.osageexploration.com.
Operational Results
Osage's net oil production was up 246% year-over-year to 76,409 barrels, and the Company's natural gas production grew 141% to 149,738 Mcf.
2013 2012 Increase/(Decrease)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oil Production: Net Barrels % of Total Net Barrels % of Total Barrels %
------------------------------ ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---------------------
United States 76,409 100.0 % 22,057 100.0 % 54,352 246.4 %
Natural Gas Production: Mcf % of Total Mcf % of Total Mcf %
------------------------------ ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---------------------
United States 149,738 100.0 % 62,131 100.0 % 87,607 141.0 %
Natural Gas Liquid Production: Net Barrels % of Total Net Barrels % of Total Barrels %
------------------------------ ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ----------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ----------- ------- -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- ---------------------
United States 3,507 100.0 % - n/a 3,507 n/a
Reserve Growth
The value of Osage's proved reserves increased to $40.9 million at year-end 2013 from $14.8 million at year-end 2012, a 176% gain year-over-year.
Financial Results
Excluding revenues from the Company's Colombian assets, Osage's revenues from oil and gas sales increased 255% over the prior year from $2.3 million to just over $8 million in 2013.
Excluding the gain on sale and results of Colombian discontinued operations, Osage reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 million compared to $218,500 in 2012.
Adjusted EBITDA From Continuing Operations*
2013 2012
----------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------
Net income (loss) $ 3,855,306 $ (516,706 )
Income from discontinued operations net of income taxes (2,496,541 ) (1,863,427 )
Gain on sale of discontinued operations (4,873,660 ) -
Interest expense, net 4,564,246 1,387,399
Depreciation, depletion and accretion 2,320,441 314,540
Stock based compensation 528,417 896,694
Taxation 1,624 -
==================== ========== ==================== ==================== ========== ====================
Adjusted EBITDA $ 3,899,833 $ 218,500
Management Comments
"Osage's financial and operational results for 2013 were very solid with high growth rates in production, reserves, and adjusted EBITDA," stated Jack Zedlitz, Vice President of Corporate Development at Osage Exploration and Development. "A truer indicator of Osage's growth prospects will be revealed this year as we begin to operate our own Mississippian and Woodford wells in Logan County, and begin drilling in Pawnee and Coal Counties. While our 2013 results were very good, we believe that in the future we will do better."
About Osage Exploration and Development, Inc.
Based in San Diego, California, with production offices in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. is an independent exploration and production company with interests in oil and gas wells and prospects in the U.S. http://www.osageexploration.com
Safe Harbor Statement
The information in this release includes certain forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission that are based on assumptions that in the future may prove not to have been accurate. Those statements and Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. are subject to a number of risks, including production variances from expectations, volatility of product prices, inability to raise sufficient capital to fund its operations, environmental risks, competition, government regulation, and the ability of the Company to execute its business strategy, among others.
*GAAP Reconciliation
In addition to revenue and net income determined in accordance with GAAP, we have provided a reconciliation of our EBITDA in this release. EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure that we use as a supplemental measure of our performance. EBITDA is not a measurement of our financial performance under GAAP and should not be considered as an alternative to revenue, net income, operating income or any other performance measure derived in accordance with GAAP. It should not be assumed that EBITDA is comparable to similarly named figures disclosed by other companies. We define EBITDA as net income before the effects of the items listed in the table above. Management believes Adjusted EBITDA is a useful measure of performance, along with net income (loss).
http://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT?id=bwnews&sty=20140331005842r1&sid=cmtx6&distro=nx
SOURCE: Osage Exploration and Development, Inc.
Osage Exploration and Development, Inc.
Jack Zedlitz, VP of Corporate Development
405-270-0989
jzedlitz@osageexploration.com
or
Kim Bradford, President and CEO
619-677-3956
kbradford@osageexploration.com
http://www.osageexploration.com
OEDV-Osage Exploration and Development Spuds First Operated Horizontal Well
Date : 03/18/2014 @ 9:00AM
Source : Business Wire
Stock : Osage Exploration And Development, Inc. (QB) (OEDV)
Quote : 1.15 0.0 (0.00%) @ 7:18AM
Osage Exploration and Development Spuds First Operated Horizontal Well
Osage Exploration And Development, Inc. (QB) (USOTC:OEDV)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Tuesday 18 March 2014
Click Here for more Osage Exploration And Development, Inc. (QB) Charts.
Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. (OTCBB:OEDV), an independent exploration and production company focused on the Horizontal Mississippian and Woodford plays in Oklahoma, announced today the spudding of the Company’s first operated horizontal well in Logan County, Oklahoma. The Osage Whitten 1-3MH, targeting the Mississippian formation, was spud in Section 3 of Township 16 North 3 West on March 17 by Nabors Rig 357.
Management Comments********************************************
"For Osage shareholders, this is the beginning of a period from which we believe Osage will emerge as a radically changed entity. We intend to keep one rig running continuously this year in Logan County, steadily drilling one well per month. The Osage Whitten 1-3MH will immediately be followed by Osage’s first operated horizontal Woodford well in April, the Osage Whitten 1-2WH, with both wells to be completed at the same time. We expect results from the first two wells early in the third quarter of this year, soon to be followed by results from our third and fourth wells. Beginning in the third quarter, our shareholders should expect to see gains in production and reserves that will make our previous growth rate pale in comparison.
"For the first time, Osage is now in control of the timing of our capital expenditures and the methods of drilling, completion, and production. True to our style, we have hand selected an operating team that we believe to be second to none, and we intend to prosecute the development of this asset rapidly, carefully, and professionally," stated Jack Zedlitz, VP of Corporate Development.
About Osage Exploration and Development, Inc.
Based in San Diego, California, with production offices in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. is an independent exploration and production company with interests in oil and gas wells and prospects in the U.S. http://www.osageexploration.com
Safe Harbor Statement
The information in this release includes certain forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission that are based on assumptions that in the future may prove not to have been accurate. Those statements and Osage Exploration and Development, Inc. are subject to a number of risks, including production variances from expectations, volatility of product prices, inability to raise sufficient capital to fund its operations, environmental risks, competition, government regulation, and the ability of the Company to execute its business strategy, among others.
Osage Exploration and Development, Inc.
Jack Zedlitz, VP of Corporate Development
Phone: 405-270-0989
jzedlitz@osageexploration.com
or
Kim Bradford, President and CEO
Phone: 619-677-3956
kbradford@osageexploration.com
http://www.osageexploration.com
Interested in Oil & Gas stocks - you should check out AMSE!
Ground floor opportunity!
Any thoughts on FEEC? OTCBB with $121 M market cap
Been following it for two years, trading in and out. Huge story, massive potential, but still no revenues showing in SEC Filings after all this time. Lot's of money has been poured into this company and big names are involved, so I do think it's worth digging deeper, but I'm not an expert in this industry.
Any of the folks willing to do some DD on this company? Take a look at this news for an idea on potential...
Far East Energy Reports Net Present Value of Shouyang Block Contingent Resources
HOUSTON, April 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Far East Energy Corporation (OTC BB:FEEC.ob - News) today announced the results of an independent report by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. (NSAI) evaluating, as of December 31, 2010, the contingent gas resources and Net Present Value at 10% Discount ("NPV10") of the net contingent cash flow for the three target coal seams in Far East Energy's 485,000 acre (1960 square kilometers) Shouyang Block, situated in Shanxi Province, China.
The report gives a Best Estimate of NPV10 of $738.3 million, and a High Estimate of $1.46 billion, net to Far East.
"Obviously, this is a very strong report, and one with which we are well pleased," said Michael R. McElwrath, CEO and President of Far East. "These estimates highlight the robust economic potential of the Block. And, it is important to note that we hope and believe that these numbers are just the beginning, as meaningful improvements in well-by-well gas rates and sustainability – which we certainly expect as we further develop, dewater, and optimize production – should have the impact of increasing these estimates, as well as reclassifying some of these resources as reserves."
McElwrath continued, "This report includes only our interest in the Contingent Resources and, of course, does not constitute a reserves report. While, under the terms of our gas sales agreement, we received payment for gas at year-end 2010, we did not flow gas through the system until mid-January, and even then that was frequently interrupted as we worked out the bugs in the gathering system during the testing and commissioning process. That lack of gas flow at year-end and our anticipation of frequent interruptions as testing and commissioning occurred, led us to decide that under the applicable rules we did not have a sufficiently completed gas sales system functioning as of year-end to recognize proven gas reserves in our December 31, 2010 financials. We will recognize proved gas reserves as appropriate in 2011, and will also provide a report indicating the probable and possible gas reserves at that time."
McElwrath continued, "With our current cash balance of $34 million, we will again accelerate the pace of our drilling program, and drilling should be funded until approximately the end of 2011. Additionally, we are also targeting a total of 200 to 250 wells in 2012, and 300 to 400 in 2013. Of course, the costs of these accelerated outyear drilling programs will be partially offset by growing revenues from gas sales, and discussions are underway with several international banks and other institutions for debt financing. Shouyang's potential becomes more apparent with each successive independent analysis that we receive, and we will proceed apace to realize the value of the underlying resource."
New board covering NiMin Energy Corp. NEYYF.PK, NNN.TO - NiMin Energy Corp. is an oil and gas company that is engaged in the acquisition and development of oil and gas properties in the United States.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=20193
ERHE
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Posted by: midtieroil Date: Saturday, July 12, 2008 7:52:59 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 134707
Long time reader
And an ever longer term ERHE shareholder. For some unkown reason I decided I would start posting now. My small brain can only handle one topic at a time so I want to lay out my thoughts on the investigations. To quote Shakespeare these investigations seem to be MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING.
After years of investigation ERHE attorneys say they are "inactive". I believe them and think nothing will ever come of them. Whether these investigations started out from the STP AG, Big Oil or from Jefferson seems irrelevant at this point. None of these investigative bodies has the ability to rescind ERHE's rights in the JDZ so who cares? Some may worry about a fine but I don't. I have always found fines in these instances to be more about ability to pay than about anything else. If Exxon was going to be fined $50 million for some transgression, ERHE might be fined $5 million or less for the same wrongdoing. It might sting a little but they are not going to impose a fine that affects a company's ability to compete or could threaten to put them out of business.
The Homeland security investigation is a joke as most congressional inquiries are.
The SEC is normally satisfied as long as you correct the problems and they don't reoccur. ERHE obviously had some reporting shortcomings and, as an investor, I'm glad the SEC became involved and corrected those problems. With Offor gone and the reporting on track I see no further problems with the SEC.
The IRS "investigation" is just a routine audit because ERHE used an NOL carryover to offset the profit from the "sale" of their JDZ interest to obtain their carries. This is a routine audit and has nothing at all to do with the other investigations. Every company that uses NOLS to offset income WILL get audited. It's automatic and since ERHE has a large NOL carryover remaining there is nothing here to be concerned about.
As far as the DOJ audit goes, it's inactive and the fine, if not zero, will do nothing to damage ERHE's ability to compete.
So, like I said, this is MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING. That Shakespeare play was a comedy and those that think these investigations are going to go anywhere are comedians. They obvioulsy have an ulterior motive and want to bring it up over and over and over again. Unlike some others here, I would prefer to ignore them than continue to debate a dead issue. That is what they want you to do. This will be my final word on the investigations and I really hope everyone else will follow suit. Let them talk about it to themselves because I no longer care and neither should anyone else.
Why Are Oil Prices Rising? “The Answer” Comes into Focus
Recent information and analysis has clarified the dimensions of the energy Tsunami - what is causing the price to rise and how future prices and supplies will behave. The distinguishing characteristic of the picture is complexity. People want simple answers which is why so few of them understand oil. The oil world is huge and its behavior is multifaceted. Understanding it takes more than a simple minded idea like “blame the speculators.”
The reality is that the oil market is undergoing a sort of “perfect storm” of many different factors, including:
1. A group of countries that together produce 13% of the world’s oil are mismanaged or infested with political violence causing them to produce far less oil than they could if they had a stable government and market economy. The underproduction could be as much as 5 to even 10 mb/d (million barrels a day).
2. Russian oil production is declining. That fact has dire implications for the amount of oil available to future export markets, as discussed in the link. When you combine declines in Russia with those of Mexico and the North Sea, the extent to which non-OPEC supply could decline in coming periods becomes significant.
3. Within OPEC it is uncertain as to whether Iran and Nigeria will increase or decrease their oil exports in future years. Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Libya are the only OPEC countries likely to increase oil production near term. Iraq is a potential bright spot starting in a few years at best.
4. Old oil fields produce less oil each year, which is called the decline rate and the amount by which they decline must be made up by production from new fields. Global decline is estimated to be about 3.5 - 4 mb/d per year, a much greater number than additional oil demand that is estimated to range from 1 - 2 mb/d per year.
Decline rates for existing fields have been rising and will probably continue to rise as more extreme methods of recovery are applied to old wells. The geological rule is that as efforts to increase the output of a field by extraordinary pressurization and drilling efforts becomes greater, the field will decline much more rapidly once the decline starts. For that reason, there is a risk that the largest Saudi fields - and others such as Russian fields - may decline more rapidly than currently is projected and such increased declines could start to happen fairly soon.
An additional important fact regarding decline is that newer fields tend to be offshore and offshore fields exhibit much higher decline rates than land based fields. Offshore fields often decline by 8% - 15% per year compared with 5% - 8% for land fields.
5. Megaproject analysis indicates oil supplies coming from new oil fields will substantially drop after 2010 and will drop even more steeply after 2013. Some projects scheduled for the next few years could face substantial delays. If so, some of the projects now projected to start up in 2008 - 20010 will be delayed into the 2011 - 2015 time frame. That will add to price pressures in the near term. The megaprojects work is the most tangible evidence of a coming oil supply crisis.
6. New oil fields are located in increasingly difficult environments such as deep offshore or difficult fields like Kashagan. Costs of oil recovery in these fields are much higher. Higher costs are partly due to the fact that it takes more energy to recover the oil from these fields, so the Energy Return on Investment is declining.
This means the amount of net oil recovered after oil expended in the process of recovery is lower in these new, more expensive fields. If you project this trend into the future, at some point there would be no net gain at all from the process of extracting oil from new fields. At that point, which is well out into the future, there could be no more oil available at all.
7. In addition to the real historical phenomena discussed above, oil prices reflect to some degree whatever fears there may be that future political events may reduce oil supplies. The most important risk today is clearly the possibility that military action will be undertaken to keep Iran from having nuclear weapons. There are clearly no good choices for the West. An Iranian bomb would be a very clear and present danger to the security of the developed world but a military attack would clearly bring immediate instability and the risk of even greater future conflicts.
8. At the same time that all the above factors are influencing oil prices, higher oil prices are moderating demand somewhat, particularly in OECD countries. But while demand is declining in developed countries it is continuing to increase from developing countries, particularly in oil-exporting countries where fuel prices are subsidized and therefore market mechanisms do not impact consumer oil demand. The enormous - almost unimaginable - new wealth of oil exporting countries is being used by many of them to develop new industrial bases, which growth adds to their enhanced consumer demand to yield huge increases in their own use of their oil and thus decreases in their ability to export it.
It is not clear that the reduction in subsidies in developing countries that do not export oil such as China will reduce demand. In fact it could have the perverse impact of increasing usage in developing countries if higher prices cause an increase in the supply of fuel available to their consumers.
9. One way to sum up the outlook for the oil supply available to importing countries is to look at all the countries which produce more than one million barrels per day and which together supply 88.4% of world oil. An analysis of these countries that accounts for the projected internal use of their own oil production projects that their exports (which is not the same thing as production) are likely to decline going forward from today. If true, that would account for an increasing price of oil.
I’m sorry this discussion was so long. Unfortunately, there are simply a great many influences on the price of oil. It is quite wonderful that all this complexity gets boiled down into a single price that changes minute-to-minute. Oh well, blame the speculator.
Meanwhile, if all this is just too much, you might enjoy a more general perspective and one better expressed by Peter Lynch that I recently came across. Happy Independence weekend, and may we some day become independent from oil.
New, Lower Estimate of Bakken Recoverables
ND Study: 167 Billion Barrels of Oil in Bakken
From Rigzone.com
AFX News Limited Monday, April 28, 2008
The Bakken shale formation in North Dakota holds up to 167 billion barrels of oil but only about 1 percent of it can be recovered using current technology, a new study says. The study released Monday said current technology could lead to the recovery of about 2.1 billion barrels in North Dakota’s portion of the formation, where oil-producing rock is sandwiched between layers of shale about 10,000 feet under
Bakken Shale
(Click to Enlarge)
the ground. The estimate of recoverable oil included in the study by the state Department of Mineral Resources was similar to that of a federal study released earlier this month.
“The future potential is enormous — it means we will be able to exploit this for the rest of the century,” said Lynn Helms, the department’s director, at the annual state oil conference Monday.
Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, cautioned against over-hyping the Bakken play.
“This study gives a number that by no means guarantees those are the amount of barrels we can count on,” Ness said.
The U.S. had some 20.9 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2006, the most recent year available, said John Wood, director of reserves and production for the U.S. Department of Energy’s information administration.
North Dakota contributed 422 million barrels of proven oil reserves to that number two years ago, before the Bakken estimates were released, he said.
The Bakken shale formation encompasses some 25,000 square miles in North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. About two-thirds of the acreage is in western North Dakota.
To capture oil from the portion of the Bakken in North Dakota, companies drill wells that plunge vertically to about 10,000 feet and then “kick out” for as many feet horizontally. Pressurized fluid and sand are then forced into the horizontal wells to break oil-containing pores in the sandstone and siltstone.
Ness said it costs more than $5 million to drill a Bakken well, and dozens are currently producing.
The state study’s findings are similar to those of a separate federal study released on April 10.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil could be recovered from the Bakken shale formation in North Dakota and Montana combined, using current technology.
The federal report found up to 2.6 billion barrels could be recovered in North Dakota, compared with the state’s estimate of 2.1 billion barrels, said Ed Murphy, the state geologist and director of the state Geological Survey.
“We were quite surprised the numbers were so close,” he said.
Helms said the federal study focused on the performance of wells currently working in the Bakken, while the state “went back and looked at the rock.”
The most recent federal study does not estimate how much oil may be in the formation — only what the agency believes can be recovered using current technology.
Yesterday, my favorite oil guru, Jim Kingsale, who writes Energy Investment Strategies, posted a big important piece. Excerpts:
Oil’s Surprise Party: Who Was There
The game plan was that the Fed was done and the economy seemed suddenly not so weak so the dollar would continue to strengthen. Plus the Saudi’s are bringing on their last big new fields this year and next. Plus oil demand growth is slowing all over except among the oil exporting countries. Plus oil tried to bust $120 for a while and failed after a long and strong rise. So clearly the fundamentals and the technicals are aligned to say that oil is headed for a correction. Right?
And right on schedule oil headed down for a test of $110, which held. It seemed like everyone was following the script, but then things went kaplooey. What’s happened? Well, there are a number of suspects who might resolve this mystery.
1. The dollar stopped getting stronger. That might be partly because a number of analysts over the weekend explained that last weeks’ miraculous Q1 GDP number up .6% annualized was, like a lot of miracles, a bit questionable. It depended importantly on the assumed inflation rate on which the government might have been a tad optimistic, thus reporting stronger GDP than may actually be the case. Furthermore, last week’s report of only a small loss of jobs last month - 20,000 - was also a function of an assumption, this time something called the birth/death number that relates to smaller businesses. Their birth/death assumption turns out to be highly questionable and it resulted in a jobs report that may have been vastly off base. So, bottom line, the economy may be a lot weaker than the reports had caused the stock and futures markets to assume it was. Today, those markets corrected taking the dollar down and gold and oil up.
2. Things are getting worse in Nigeria, aggravating recent oil supply problems caused by the British strike and previous Nigerian supply disruptions. I cannot accurately describe what is happening in Nigeria. I’m not sure many people really know. A comprehensive report on the Nigerian oil situation in April’s Petroleum Review titled, “Risky Business” is the stuff of movie scripts - think Casablanca. It seems the authorities are involved in the crimes. The report says that when a kidnapping occurs, a fairly regular event,
“It tends to be the norm that SSS - the state security service responsible for intelligence within the country - already knows who the perpetrators are and in what circumstances the hostages are being held.”
Moreover, MEND, the militarily sophisticated rebel group that is supposedly seeking social justice, has become more efficient. They have warned that during their attacks on the oil infrastructure, if any security guard returns their fire he will be killed. The result is that the guards flee when MEND arrives. There is little or no effective security for the oil infrastructure now. MEND (which may be short for “mendacious”) recently vowed to shut down the entire oil export business. I doubt that would happen because MEND needs the oil companies to be producing oil so that MEND can steal it. Still, Nigeria used to supply 2.3 million b/d and now they are down a lot. I’m not sure how much, but the direction seems to be south.
3. It is starting to appear that the Saudi’s are saving whatever spare capacity they may have in case there is a true global emergency. Thus, they seem not to have additional spare capacity to simply make up for ordinary supply disruptions such as Nigeria and Bournemouth. Perhaps when KSA brings on its new fields sometime later this year and next they will be more capable of bringing discipline to the oil markets, but at this point they seem to have lost any pricing power on the upside.
4. It is also starting to seem that the Bushies are increasingly serious about reducing the Iranian military involvement in Iraq. They frequently refer to a “price that must be paid” by the Iranians for interference. Clearly they are now pushing to put out new carrots. But it feels like they know the carrots will be rejected and they just want to get the gesture out of the way to clear the field for other actions. What sort? I would guess there could be limited strategic bombings of munitions factories and like targets.
A military strike against Iran could well bring chaos to the oil markets. No doubt that would bring on whatever reserves KSA has, plus there would likely be releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the U.S. and other countries. Still, the possibility of a Bush military strike against Iran is a growing threat to anyone short of oil.
5. Which brings me to a major participant in the surprise oil rally: short covering. It appears that all the reasons advanced above for oil to fall had attracted a significant number of shorts to the oil market. Apparently, there was a mass exodus of the shorts from the oil market Friday and today, as oil topped $120.
We are living in interesting times.
Bakken Trend update - 25 times more oil than previous estimate
By Tim Wood
11 Apr 2008 at 12:28 PM
It's official, the Bakken Formation has a lot more oil than was previously thought. It's only a tenth of the original estimates, but remember that the overall estimates of 200 billion barrels did not refer to recoverable oil, only the total estimated extent.
For background on the Bakken, see our report from earlier this week.
The USGS says there is "3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil." The 1995 estimate pegged the reserve at 151 million barrels of oil. The original estimate faced imminent embarrassment given that the The Elm Coulee field in Montana has produced around 65 million barrels since its discovery in 2000. It is estimated that Elm Coulee will eventually produce 270 million barrels before it is exhausted.
The USGS says the increased estimate is justified by "new geologic models... advances in drilling and production technologies, and recent oil discoveries.
Is 4 billion barrels of oil a big deal? Absolutely. Consider that:
*
It increases US crude oil reserves by 19%, or an additional 2.4 years of annual domestic production.
*
The Bakken Formation estimate is larger than all other current USGS oil assessments of the lower 48 states and is the largest "continuous" oil accumulation ever assessed by the USGS.
*
It represents a potential profit of $260 billion assuming production costs of $40/bbl and an oil price of $105.
*
It does not account for what lies on the Canadian side of the border.
Investors must now acclimatise themselves to a new lexicon of names that companies will use to pump up their stock prices - the five Five continuous assessment units (AU) now associated with this news: the Elm Coulee-Billings Nose AU, the Central Basin-Poplar Dome AU, the Nesson-Little Knife Structural AU, the Eastern Expulsion Threshold AU, and the Northwest Expulsion Threshold AU.
And the evidence is in that investors are going big. Saskatchewan is doing a roaring trade in land sales related to the Bakken formation and the Shaunavon oil patch. The best land prices are being fetched on Bakken plays just north of the US border, near the towns of Stoughton and Lampman in Saskatchewan.
You can bet that prices will continue to increase when the next land auction takes place this coming June. And with Montana land owners in Richland County and Fallon County minting a fortune in recent years, you can also bet that rural North Dakota is not going to suffer a real estate crisis for some time. Last year North Dakota saw a 52% increase in the number of wells drilled.
The Great Falls Tribune does a nice job of distilling some of the geology and production basics:
"About two-thirds of the Bakken Formation's acreage is in western North Dakota, where the oil is trapped in a thin layer of porous dolomite rock wedged between two layers of hard shale nearly two miles beneath the surface. The dolomite ranges between 8 and 14 feet thick throughout most of northeastern Montana. Oil companies drill down to this thin layer, then drill horizontal legs several thousand feet long to recover oil from the porous rock. They also use pressurized fluid and sand to break pores in the rock and hold them open while the oil is recovered."
It is estimated that the cost per well is $5 million, which translates into a production cost of up to $50/bbl. Not exactly cheap and it raises the risks for late investors. However, what a bonus for the oil services industry.
Bakken oil formation has industry gushing
Bruce Johnstone, Saskatchewan News Network
Published: Monday, December 10, 2007
Saskatchewan could be sitting on 25 billion to 100 billion barrels of sweet, light crude oil in the Bakken formation in the southeast part of the province, according to industry and government estimates.
By comparison, the heavy oil resource in west-central Saskatchewan, which is considered to have great potential for future production, is estimated to be 25 billion barrels of oil in place.
The huge potential of the Bakken play has industry and government officials gushing with superlatives.
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"We're excited about it," said Ed Dancsok of Saskatchewan Energy and Resources. "It's probably the biggest oil find in Saskatchewan since the 1950s."
"The Bakken is the hottest play in Western Canada," said Trent Stangl, manager of marketing and investor relations for Crescent Point Energy Trust of Calgary, one of the top three players in the Bakken in Saskatchewan.
Gregg Smith, vice-president of Canadian operations for Petrobank Energy and Resources, another Calgary company with a large land position in southeastern Saskatchewan, goes one further. "It's fair to say, the Bakken play is the hottest play in North America," Smith said.
What has government and industry observers so excited is the sheer magnitude of the Bakken formation, which is found in the Williston Basin underlying much of North Dakota, eastern Montana, southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.
The Bakken is a geological formation of siltstone and sandstone about 300 metres below the Mississippian formation, where most Saskatchewan light oil production comes from. Bakken wells tend to be highly productive (200 barrels a day or more), producing sweet, light crude oil with 41 degree gravity, basically the highest grade of crude oil you can find anywhere.
While relatively new in Canada, Bakken exploration has been underway in the U.S. since 2000 and has increased dramatically in recent years. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Bakken formation could contain a mind-boggling 413 billion barrels of oil in place.
Exactly how much of that Bakken oil in place is in Saskatchewan is a matter of some conjecture.
Fifteen years ago, the then-department of Energy and Mines estimated there was roughly 100 billion barrels of oil in the Bakken formation throughout the entire Williston Basin.
Dancsok, who co-authored the 1991 study, said the prevailing view in the geoscience community at the time was "the potential of the Bakken was immense, but the price of oil in 1991 was not such that people wanted to risk (exploration and development dollars)."
Dancsok estimated roughly 25 per cent of the Williston Basin, which covers some 200,000 square miles (518,000 square kilometres) is located in Saskatchewan. Based on that simple arithmetic, the estimate of Bakken oil in the province could range anywhere from 25 billion barrels to 100 billion barrels of oil in place.
Of course, geology isn't that simple.
"Whether the Bakken is evenly distributed throughout the basin is one question," Dancsok said. "It is deeper in North Dakota. But is the distribution of Bakken oil equal in Saskatchewan to North Dakota or Montana? That's a big question mark."
Smith says it's difficult to estimate how much oil is in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan, but suggests that three to four billion barrels of oil could be in place in the area (22 townships) where Petrobank and other companies, like Crescent Point and Tristar, are active.
"This is very much a resource play," Smith said. "There will be other Bakken discoveries. This play will expand."
ScienceDaily (Jan. 21, 2008) — Natural gas distributed throughout the Marcellus black shale in northern Appalachia could conservatively boost proven U.S. reserves by trillions of cubic feet if gas production companies employ horizontal drilling techniques, according to a Penn State and State University of New York, Fredonia, team.
"The value of this science could increment the net worth of U.S. energy resources by a trillion dollars, plus or minus billions," says Terry Engelder, professor of geosciences, at Penn State.
The Marcellus shale runs from the southern tier of New York, through the western portion of Pennsylvania into the eastern half of Ohio and through West Virginia. In Pennsylvania, the formation extends from the Appalachian plateau into the western valley and ridge. This area has produced natural gas for years, but the Marcellus shale, a deep layer of rock, is officially identified as holding a relatively small amount of proven or potential reserves. However, many gas production companies are now interested in the Marcellus.
Engelder, working with Gary Lash, professor of geoscience, SUNY Fredonia, has conservatively estimated that the Marcellus shale contains 168 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in place and optimistically suggests that the amounts could be as high as 516 trillion cubic feet.
"Conservatively, we generally only consider 10 percent of gas in place as a potential resource," says Engelder. "The key, of course, is that the Marcellus is more easily produced by horizontal drilling across fractures, and until recently, gas production companies seemed unaware of the presence of the natural fractures necessary for magnifying the success of horizontal drilling in the Marcellus."
The U.S. currently produces roughly 30 trillion cubic feet of gas a year, and these numbers are dropping. According to Engelder, the technology exists to recover 50 trillion cubic feet of gas from the Marcellus, thus keeping the U.S. production up. If this recovery is realized, the Marcellus reservoir would be considered a Super Giant gas field.
Engelder, who has studied this area of the U.S. for most of his career and began looking into fractures under a National Science Foundation grant 25 years ago, has identified and mapped natural fractures in the Marcellus shale. He and Lash will present some of their recent work at the 2008 American Association of Petroleum Geologists Annual Convention and Exhibition this spring.
The researchers look at the patterns of fractures in the shale and determine which are important for gas production. Fractures that correlate with the folding of the ridge and valley system are less common in black shale. However, because of their orientation, the fractures that formed prior to the folding will release gas if the wells cross the fracture zones.
These fractures, referred to as J1 fractures by Engelder and Lash, run as slices from the northeast to the southwest in the Marcellus shale and are fairly close together. While a vertical well may cross one of these fractures and other less productive fractures, a horizontally drilled well aimed to the north northwest will cross a series of very productive J1 fractures.
"It takes $800,000 to drill a vertical well in the Marcellus, but it takes $3 million to drill a horizontal well," says Engelder.
Companies that drill gas wells need to be certain that horizontal drilling will produce the gas they expect and the work by Engelder and Lash suggests that it will.
"We know that the Marcellus shale appears as an outcrop near Batavia, N.Y., east of Buffalo," says Engelder. "And we can see the fractures in the Marcellus in the exposed sections of the ridge and valley areas to the southeast. Because we see them going through the folded areas, we know they were there before the folding. If it happened earlier, then we know they have to be in the intervening basin as well."
The natural fractures in the Marcellus shale are the key to recovering large amounts of gas. As heavily organic sediments were laid down 365 million years ago, the black shale of the Marcellus formed. As the organic material decayed and degraded, methane and other components of natural gas formed and dispersed through the pores in the rock. About 300 million years ago, the pressure of the gas caused fractures to form in the shale. It was not until 280 million years ago that the eastern portion of Pennsylvania was pushed into the folding of the ridge and valley province that makes up that area. Gas that occurs in pockets underground is considered a conventional reservoir; gas that is distributed throughout the rock, like the Marcellus, is called an unconventional reservoir.
The Penn State-Fredonia approach is not restricted to production of the Marcellus shale, but can be applied to any gas-bearing shale with this type of fracture. Because the approach begins with a vertical well and then drills horizontally in the direction that will crosscut the productive fractures, old vertical wells can be reused.
"We can go back to wells that are already drilled and played out, and then drill horizontal from there," says Engelder. "Reusing old wells has both economic and environmental value."
Engelder and Lash are principals in Appalachian Fracture Systems Inc., a consulting firm.
Adapted from mate
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Hyperdynamics' CEO Reports Valuable Progress and Superb Positioning for 2008
Tuesday January 15, 7:00 am ET
First 3-D Seismic In History Specified for Offshore Guinea
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Hyperdynamics (AMEX:HDY - News) today announced that its board of directors has set its annual shareholder meeting, regarding its fiscal year end June 30, 2007, for Wednesday, February 20, 2008 at 10:00 AM CST. The meeting will be for shareholders of record as of January 2, 2008, and will be held at Sugar Creek Country Club in Sugar Land, Texas. Details have been filed with the SEC on Schedule 14A.
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The following is this year’s shareholder letter written by the Company’s Chairman and Chief Executive, Kent Watts.
“January 14, 2008
To our Shareholders:
We greatly appreciate your support over this past year. I believe that our market and you, our shareholders, will soon clearly understand that we have made valuable progress in the past year and that we are positioned to have a fantastic 2008.
This past year has challenged us in many ways. We are exploring for world-class oil and gas reserves in a 31,000 square mile offshore concession that is in the hottest exploration region in the world. Hereunder I will explain our company’s major progress. However, to first set the stage, I believe that you should be aware that in the past year we have encountered intense petro-politics. The world’s energy shortage is growing more acute every day and at the same time our asset becomes more valuable. We have successfully dealt with political attacks all year and this is why a strong presence in Guinea has been our number one priority and has produced our number one achievement.
In 2008 we are focused more deeply than ever on our exploration work, while our business and political status in Guinea continues to grow. I have five categories to report about that reflect our progress in 2007. They are:
1) Guinea political and business status,
2) Joint venture partner status,
3) 2007 exploration program accomplishments,
4) Status of building our internal exploration team, and
5) Our superb positioning for success in 2008.
Guinea political and business status
Our organization in Guinea, led by our Vice President of Guinea Affairs, Mr. Famourou Kourouma, has a strong organizational foothold inside Guinea and our in-country team is formidable at protecting our interests.
A presidential delegation, led by Secretary General of the President of the Republic, Mr. Sam Mamady Soumah, visited us in Sugar Land, Texas in September 2007. After the Secretary General’s report to the Chief of State, President Lansana Conté, the President invited me to visit Guinea and to report on our investment and exploration plans. As a result of our work in Guinea, the President’s office deals directly with us regarding the 2006 Production Sharing Contract and we have been told to expect more positive changes in their government that will help us streamline and accelerate our work in the near future. On December 5, 2007, a presidential decree clarified substantial far reaching powers of the Secretary General to administer the government. On December 10, 2007, former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr. Herman (Hank) Cohen, traveled with us to Guinea. Our group met with the President, the Secretary General, and the President of the National Assembly, Mr. Aboubacar Somparé. In these meetings, we were consistently assured that positive changes were in process. Hank, Famourou, and I also met with US Ambassador to Guinea, Phillip Carter III. It’s important for you to know that we continue to have the U.S. government’s support and the Guinea government is aware of such support. In August 2007, Ambassador Carter replaced former Ambassador Jackson McDonald as US Ambassador to Guinea. Over the last few years we have worked extensively with Ambassador McDonald who was extremely supportive and consistently gave us valuable political guidance. Since then, we are continuing with Ambassador Carter regarding all our work in Guinea. This last year we also began working with our local Congress members. We engaged the lobbyist firm Patton Boggs this year to protect our interests in Washington D.C.
As part of our corporate responsibility goals, Hyperdynamics supported efforts by American Friends of Guinea that helped to save lives of many children during a very serious cholera outbreak. Our combined public relations strategies and humanitarian efforts in Guinea have raised our business profile in Guinea as a responsible corporate citizen.
Joint venture partner status
Early in 2007 we solicited potential joint venture partners to join our exploration efforts offshore Guinea. During the year we signed approximately 20 companies to confidentiality agreements and held meetings to evaluate their level of interest. In the process, by the middle of the year, we determined that, while we remain open to negotiating joint venture arrangements, we could achieve much greater shareholder value by first advancing our exploration efforts to the point of having a portfolio of drillable prospects. Most of the potential partners expressed interest in our project and have asked for updates on our progress. We attend monthly meetings as a member of the West African scout group whose participating oil companies invest in exploration and production projects offshore West Africa. This provides us a forum to present regular updates to many of the companies that may have an interest in partnering with us in the future. We believe our efforts this year have provided a foundation to build on. We continue to talk with potential partners on an ongoing basis and expect the interest in our project to grow substantially in 2008.
2007 exploration program accomplishments
Our exploration work this year has resulted in major progress. In August we ramped up our 2007 exploration program towards developing our hydrocarbon plays in our concession. From our information base developed from previous exploration programs since 2002, we designed and implemented our going forward exploration program. To date, our studies comprise the largest knowledge base in existence concerning the Guinean offshore region and the 2007 program continues to build on this critical information base. We acquired additional 2-D seismic from a third party together with gravity and magnetics data and began to reinterpret as many as 25 leads from our seismic database. The reinterpretation of our satellite oil seeps study reported the existence of light crude oil seeps in our concession. Our historical exploration efforts have identified plays such as the Guinea Bissau salt province, Lower Cretaceous/Upper Cretaceous slope-fan deposits, Paleozoic tilted fault blocks, Mesozoic syn-rift half grabens, Tertiary deltas and turbidites along with Tertiary channel sands. Our exploration work since August 2007 has verified that we have the Transform Margin fairway in our concession. This is part of the same play that has produced at least 39 discoveries offshore West Africa collectively containing a world-class level of oil reserves. Based on our critical work in 2007 we can prioritize our activities and we are currently scrutinizing the Transform Margin play. Our 2007 program was a major success that is leading us in the right direction for a future world-class discovery of our own.
Building our internal exploration team
We have taken major steps and embraced our original strategy to build a formidable exploration team. This last year we made the decision to bring our core exploration team in-house and to add extensive oil and gas exploration and production experience to our board of directors and corporate management team. This decision was critical for positioning us to accelerate our timelines for exploration, to retain more value, and to maximize returns for our shareholders. We hired Mr. James R. Spear as our Vice President of Exploration and Chief Geophysicist. His past experience includes working successfully in 42 major hydrocarbon basins around the world. His enthusiasm and depth of experience is the cornerstone of our efforts to build our exploration team. Jim is leading the process of assembling our in-house team and we expect to make additional announcements as we bring on new talent. In December, Mr. Charles H. Andrews joined Hyperdynamics’ Board of Directors as a next step to add exploration experience at the top. Currently we continue to evaluate potential board members and to recruit additional geoscientists and geo-technical personnel. We are dedicated to building our board and exploration team and we will be steadily assessing appropriate additions as we move forward in 2008. As part of an extensive forward 2008 exploration program, our exploration team has configured multiple grids over several prospects for Guinea’s first 3-D seismic data acquisition in history. Our future announcements will provide updates about the 2008 program.
Our superb positioning for success in 2008
It is my sincere hope that you are assured that we are doing the right things to provide greatly enhanced shareholder value in the future. We have a steadily growing relationship with Guinea and have built a strong foundation for extended discussions and negotiations with many potential joint venture partners. Additionally, based on the positive results of our 2007 forward exploration program, we have advanced and refocused our exploration efforts to hydrocarbon plays that have world-class levels of proven results in West Africa. Finally, we have made major progress in establishing a highly experienced and successful exploration ability in-house, giving management technical control of our exploration process. We are now prepared to move forward with 3-D/2-D seismic data acquisition programs that should increase our chances for drillable prospects and ultimately a discovery.
We are superbly positioned for realizing the value of our oil and gas concession offshore Guinea. I would ask you, our shareholders, to recognize the progress we have made and to understand the extensive work ahead for us. We most certainly appreciate each of you and I am asking for your continued support towards the goal of making a world-class discovery. Thank you for your investment and keep watching for our update
Huge fire hits Iraq oil refinery
Baiji refinery
Baiji is Iraq's largest refinery, though it is not a major refiner of petroleum
Reports from Iraq say the country's biggest oil refinery, at Baiji, has been badly damaged in a huge fire.
The fire began with an explosion in the plant's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) unit which had recently been repaired.
Engineers at the complex, about 180 kilometres (120 miles) north of Baghdad, said a tank was destroyed, but the refinery was still operating.
At least one person was killed and several others were injured. The fire was under control after two hours.
A police official in Baiji blamed the fire on an accident, and not sabotage which has plagued Iraq's oil sector since the US-led invasion nearly five years ago.
Although Iraq has large reserves, it is not a major exporter of refined petroleum. However, the Baiji complex serves as a key transfer point for crude oil being exported from Iraq.
It also refines some crude for domestic consumption.
Geologist Roberto Fainstein, whose seismic imaging work at oil-field services company Schlumberger helped Brazil to discover its massive new reserves, says the subsalt find will "lead to a rush in this kind of drilling worldwide." Brazil's discovery may quicken subsalt drilling in the Gulf of Mexico by oil majors and Mexico's state-run oil giant Pemex. A salt layer offshore West African countries including Angola, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea is "virtually identical to Brazil's," Fainstein says, "so companies will race to begin drilling it."
Avoiding the "Oil Curse"
Subsea salt layers are present in all three of the world's biggest offshore oil areas: the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and Brazil. So far, subsalt oil production has been executed only in the Gulf of Mexico, near the Texas and Louisiana coast where companies including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Anadarko Petroleum (APC) have all made significant discoveries.
Oil Sand Opportunities
By Kathryn Jones
Friday, 28 September 2007
Established in December 2006, Patch International has quickly become the most aggressive emerging junior oil sands company in Alberta, Canada, it says, thanks to its asset base of 60 gross sections of land within the Athabasca oil sands near Fort McMurray, Alberta.
“A couple of years ago, I don’t think anyone would have acknowledged the term ‘junior oil sands company,’” COO and Vice President of Operations Jason Dagenais says. “The reason being is that oil sands are, candidly, a very expensive business with literally hundreds of millions of dollars in investments.
“But, in the last couple of years as technology and infrastructure has improved, we’ve seen a huge emergence of junior oil sands companies in Canada.”
Location has a lot to do with that, Dagenais adds, because the Athabasca oil sands are the second-largest oil resource in the world. “That represents 14 percent of recoverage of world oil reserves, which is about 175 billion barrels,” he calculates. “We see the oil sands of Alberta as a world-class, politically stable environment and an attractive environment to partake business in.
“The asset itself is a predictable resource base. Geologically, there is a lot lower risk in doing your explorations locally than other asset basses in the world. [Plus,] these resources have an exceptional reserve life index. Because we’re flanked to the U.S. border, which is one of the strongest consumers of oil, we have a strong and predictable market demand from the states.”
Projects in the Works
Patch currently has lease holdings in two areas of the Athabasca oil sands: Ells River (formerly referred to as Dover) and Muskwa. Dagenais says the company is very excited about the Ells River project and has 80 percent working interest in it. “We’ve got two discoveries with multiple potential to add,” he says.
“With these two discoveries, we can economically verify that our assets have the requirements to become a commercial steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project. An expandable 10,000-barrel-a-day project is a very capital-intensive program to undertake. The assets must demonstrate both the quality and the quantity in order to bear the economic burden to bring the resources to production. We have an independent third-party engineer who has confirmed that it is economically viable.”
Patch’s Muskwa asset includes 10 sections with an average 95 percent working interest. “We are intrigued with the Muskwa land because it may have cold flow potential,” Dagenais asserts. “Although it is considered an oil sands asset, we might be able to produce it without thermal recovery.
“This is substantial because it translates to less operating costs and less capital requirements, allowing producers to accelerate development time dramatically.
“There is no engineering value applied to it so far, so this winter we’ll be conducting some in-flow tests to determine its flow ability, as well as the oil viscosity test required to ascertain whether these resources will cold flow or flow on its own without thermal enhancement. Once we see positive results, we will proceed aggressively to get production started as early as 2008.”
Who Will Win?
“It’s important to note that when you’re looking at regulatory approval, we’ve established ourselves ahead of the other junior oil sands companies because we have already demonstrated in nine months that we’re ahead of the competition by getting production on stream in one to two years,” Dagenais asserts. “With our Ells River project, we have an aggressive plan to be on production as early as 2010.”
In Canada, the bulk of the oil sands are referred to as crown leases. The government provides 15-year leases that companies competitively bid on. “These leases have been taken up for the most part,” Dagenais says. “With the closing of the market, pretty much all the oil sands will be taken up by the fall of this year. What we’re starting to see now is the setting stage of the true development of oil sands.”
The future is not without questions, however, such as “Who’s going to be the one to build, explore, exploit and add value? Who are the ones who are going to merge with another company?” he says.
That said, “We are very excited to be part of this [industry], and we look forward to participating in that arena,” he adds.
From the Gartman letter:
Finally, and obviously quite bearish of the US dollar, we
note that Nippon Oil, Japan’s largest refiner, agreed to
buy oil from Iran and to pay Iran in Yen for crude loaded
this month... not dollars, yen! Tehran has been hinting
that it might soon chose to bill its oil clients in currencies
other than the dollar. Nippon Oil is the first large customer
to agree to do so. We note that Nippon Oil buys
approximately 25% of total Japanese oil imports from
Iran.
We note two things of interest in this regard then. Firstly,
we note that one or two analysts who noted this
transaction said that Nippon Oil had "acquiesced" to this
new Yen pricing. We suspect that Nippon Oil was more
than happy to be billed in Yen rather than US dollars, for
certainly it makes accounting far simpler. Secondly, we
were rather surprised how little notice this was given by
the forex market yesterday. We think this is
"Watershed"-like in its importance.
CALGARY, Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Patch International Inc. (OTCBB: PTCH - News; the "Company") is pleased to announce results of its recently completed independent resource report (the "Report") prepared by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. ("McDaniel") of Calgary, Alberta. Based upon this past winter's activities, the Company's Best Estimate (P50) Contingent resources have been estimated to be 139 million barrels and support a 20,000 Bbl/d project. Management believes the contemplated 2007/2008 winter delineation drilling program may increase the resource base sufficiently to support a 40,000 Bbl/d project.
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Based on the Report, the Company has initiated planning for a potentially earlier production startup by engaging engineering firms to provide facilities cost estimates and timelines for essential services, conducting baseline environmental awareness studies, initiating the proposal for a SAGD application for production, and consulting with numerous oil sands technology suppliers for ideas which may improve project economics.
McDaniel was engaged to evaluate the new 2007 data and prepare the Report of the Contingent resources, as well as an estimate of the Undiscovered resources ("undiscovered bitumen in-place") underlying the Company's 80% working interest in the Ells River area (formerly described as the Dover Project). The Report was prepared effective May 31, 2007, estimating the volume of Contingent resources as well as an estimate of the net present value of future net revenue attributable to these resources based on forecast and constant prices and costs and a 2012 startup.
The Report assessed only the portions of the sedimentary column which meet specific reservoir criteria required for economic development employing the in-situ SAGD recovery technology. The recoverable resources have been classified as "Contingent" since these recoverable volumes do not satisfy the requirements of reserves with respect to sufficient delineation density, regulatory approval, and corporate budget approval.
The Best Estimate (P50) Contingent resources have been estimated to be 139 million barrels, with a High Estimate (P10) of 203.3 million barrels. The synergistic interpretation and integration of well logs, core and seismic information has provided for a comprehensive resource assessment and given the Company direction to increase its SAGD capable resource base in the coming seasons with specific delineation targets and new high impact prospects, with an additional prospective potential estimated at 69.8 million barrels.