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Coming up: CPI, housing starts, jobless claims
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. government will release reports on consumer inflation, new-home construction and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the consumer price index to increase by 0.1% in December. The core rate, which excludes food and energy, likely rose by 0.2%. The Commerce Department, meanwhile, is expected to report that new-home construction climbed to an annual rate of 695,000 units in December from 685,000 in November. Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, probably fell to 375,000 from an initially reported 399,000 in the prior week, according to the MarketWatch forecast.
S&P 500 Caps Best Start to Year Since 1987 on Economic Optimism
U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its best start to a year since 1987, after confidence among homebuilders topped forecasts, Goldman Sachs (GS) Group Inc. rallied and concern about Europe eased.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-goldman-sachs-releases-results.html
Goldman Sachs climbed 6.8 percent as earnings beat estimates amid lower compensation costs. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and JPMorgan (JPM) Chase & Co. jumped at least 4.6 percent, leading the gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. PulteGroup Inc. (PHM) and Lennar Corp. added more than 4.3 percent, pacing an advance in homebuilders. A measure of chipmakers rose the most in the S&P 500 among 24 industries, rallying 3.9 percent.
The S&P 500 increased 1.1 percent to 1,308.04 at 4 p.m. New York time, closing above 1,300 for the first time since July. The Dow advanced 96.88 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,578.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.5 percent to 2,769.71. The Russell 2000 Index jumped 1.8 percent to 779.26.
“It’s great to see the market up,” John Carey, a Boston- based money manager at Pioneer Investments, said in a telephone interview. The firm oversees about $220 billion. “People are realizing that Europe is important, but it’s not the whole world. They are looking at the economic numbers in the U.S. and seeing that we’re not going back into a recession. The economy is still growing. We might be all right at the end of the day.”
The S&P 500 has risen 4 percent this year as measures of commodity, financial and industrial shares rallied at least 6.4 percent. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most- tied to the economy has surged 11 percent in 2012, with Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) soaring at least 15 percent.
Highest Since 2007
Stocks climbed today as confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in January to the highest level since 2007. Equities extended gains as an official told reporters that Greece’s government could forge an agreement with private creditors by the end of this week after talks resumed in Athens today. The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to safeguard the economy.
“Investors need a new excuse to commit more capital,” Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, which oversees $1.3 billion, said in a telephone interview. “The acute stress of Europe has moderated. Given that we already have good economic data, the most obvious new excuse is earnings. I would expect a decent earnings season.”
Companies in the benchmark index, which beat profit estimates in the previous 11 quarters, probably will report a 4.6 percent increase in per-share earnings during the September- December period, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.
Homebuilders Rally
Nine out of 10 industries in the S&P 500 rallied as financial and technology gauges advanced at least 1.6 percent. A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes climbed 4.6 percent. PulteGroup added 5.9 percent to $7.94. Lennar (LEN) jumped 4.4 percent to $23.
Goldman Sachs rose 6.8 percent to $104.31. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein cut compensation 21 percent in 2011 as he reduced costs and focused on international growth to offset a slowdown in trading, which contributes most of the firm’s revenue. Goldman Sachs’s higher-than-estimated earnings contrasted with previous reports from Citigroup Inc. (C), which fell short of analysts’ estimates, and JPMorgan, which matched projections.
Some of the largest financial companies also climbed. Bank of America advanced 4.9 percent to $6.80. JPMorgan added 4.7 percent to $36.54.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) fell 4.6 percent to $20.30. The world’s biggest custody bank said fourth-quarter earnings declined 26 percent on a restructuring charge and lower revenue from businesses tied to financial markets.
Sales Forecast
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5 percent as all of its 30 stocks advanced. Linear Technology Corp. (LLTC) jumped 12 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $33.32. The maker of semiconductors for industrial equipment and cars forecast fiscal third-quarter sales that would beat analysts’ estimates.
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) gained 3.2 percent to $15.92 as Jerry Yang’s exit may remove a barrier to find a buyer or negotiate a sale of stakes in Asian assets valued at more than $10 billion. Now that the co-founder and one-time chief executive officer has cut his leadership ties to Yahoo, newly appointed CEO Scott Thompson has freer rein to unwind the company’s part-ownership of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Yahoo Japan Corp.
U.S. companies that beat analysts’ earnings estimates are an exception, rather than the rule, for the fourth-quarter reporting season getting under way. Only 47.1 percent of companies in the S&P 500 that posted quarterly results between Dec. 1 and yesterday exceeded the average projection, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Financial Crisis
So-called positive surprises have surpassed 50 percent at a comparable point in every other quarterly reporting period for the past four years. The previous low was 51.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008, when a global financial crisis was taking hold.
“Early reporters’ results” are one of two reasons to expect the current earnings season to be disappointing, Thomas M. Doerflinger, a strategist at UBS AG, wrote yesterday in a report. The other is that many companies are likely to cut estimates for this year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Baker at nbaker7@bloomberg.net
great call & buy bro!
AMZN those 185 calls @ 2.9 now from 1.05
sweet pick-up kapoooo
Do estimates matter for Goldman, rivals? - MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-estimates-matter-for-goldman-rivals-2012-01-18 via @MarketWatch
S&P 500 $SPX
Support is at 1292.66, then 1284.91, and a previous pivot high at 1277.55. Major support below that level would be at 1257.72, its 200-day moving average. Resistance is at 1305.44 and then at 1315.94
Economic Calendar for Wednesday Jan 18
MBA Purchase Applications
*7:00 AM ET
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
*7:45 AM ET
Producer Price Index
*8:30 AM ET
Redbook
*8:55 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
*9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
*9:15 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Housing Market Index
*10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
*11:30 AM ET
U.S. stock futures rise ahead of Goldman, data
MADRID (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures pushed higher on Wednesday as the market awaited a slew of earnings from the financial sector, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and data such as producer prices.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJ2H +0.41% rose 51 points to 12,471. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SP2H +0.34% climbed 6.2 points to 1,295.50 and those on the Nasdaq Composite ND2H +0.57% were up 13.50 points to 2,403.25.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rise-ahead-of-goldman-data-2012-01-18
A heavy schedule of earnings reports is awaiting investors for Wednesday. Among the highlights will be Goldman Sachs GS +0.30% . The financial services group is expected to report a fourth-quarter profit of $1.28 a share on revenue of $6.73 billion, according to a FactSet Research poll of analysts.
Also reporting ahead of the bell will be Northern Trust Corp. NTRS -0.05% , PNC Financial Services Group Inc. PNC +0.07% , Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW +0.08% and State Street Corp. STT +0.09% .
EBay Inc. EBAY +0.49% will report after the market closes.
Shares of Yahoo Inc. YHOO +2.85% could be in focus after the Internet group said late Tuesday that its co-founder Jerry Yang is leaving.
Shares of Linear Technology Corp. LLTC +8.27% could gain in pre-open trade. Shares jumped around 9% in after-hour’s trading Tuesday after a strong revenue outlook released by the company.
U.S. stocks finished higher on Tuesday, but trimmed gains as markets got nervous ahead of the Goldman results, and after mixed results from Citigroup Inc. C +0.23% and Wells Fargo & Co. WFC +0.05% . The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.48% pulled back from a 151-point gain to close up 60.01 points, or 0.5%, to 12,482.07.
Away from corporate news, economic data due Wednesday include December producer prices at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, December industrial production at 9:15 a.m and home-builder sentiment for January at 10 a.m.
Stocks traded in a narrow range in Europe, led by gains in German and French bourses. Germany reportedly saw strong cover and record-low yields at a sale of short-term paper. The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP -0.04% was flat at 253.39.
Greece will be a focal point for Europe and global investors as negotiators head back to the table to try and crank out a deal with the nation’s creditors.
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said the country may pass legislation forcing through private-sector haircuts if a deal cannot be reached, in an interview with the New York Times that published Wednesday. There were mixed media reports Wednesday on the potential for success at the negotiations.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that the International Monetary Fund is exploring ways to expand its lending fund by $1 trillion.
Asia stocks were volatile, with Tokyo and Hong Kong higher, but mainland China stocks down on concerns Beijing would not ease its monetary policy too aggressively.
Gold prices were flat after Tuesday's gains, fueled by stronger-than-expected China growth data.
Crude-oil prices for February delivery CL2G +0.79% rose 79 cents to $101.49. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2012, lower than its prior estimate of 1.3 million barrels a day.
The dollar index DXY -0.42% , a measure of the U.S. unit’s value compared to six other currencies, slipped to 80.634, down from 81.175 late Tuesday in North American trade.
IMF explores $1 trillion lending boost http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-explores-1-trillion-lending-boost-2012-01-18 via @MarketWatch
REPORT: IMF PROPOSES TO BOOST LENDING FACILITY BY $1 TRILLION http://www.businessinsider.com/report-imf-proposes-to-boost-lending-facility-by-1-trillion-2012-1?utm_source=twbutton&
Optimism Seen Short-Lived, Euro Still Under Pressure
Optimism about some better-than-expected economic data from Europe is likely to be short-lived and the euro and European stocks will remain under pressure as investors will again turn their attention to the fact that the euro zone's debt problems are far from over, analysts told CNBC.com.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46025770
OpenInterest is:
Description
The Open Interest is the total number of options or futures contracts that are not closed on a particular day. Open interest is not the same as volume. Unlike volume that both entries and exits cause increase in, open interest's increase is caused by entries and decrease is caused by exits.
Tokyo, Hong Kong stocks rise, Shanghai falls
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Japanese stocks led most Asian markets higher Wednesday as fears about the global economic outlook abated, while mainland Chinese stocks fell on concern Beijing was unlikely to ease its monetary policy aggressively.
At the end of a choppy day’s trading, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:NIK +0.99% ended 1% higher at 8,550.58, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.06% gained 0.1% to 4,217.90, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +0.30% added 0.3% to 19,686.92 and Taiwan’s Taiex XX:Y9999 +0.18% rose 0.2% to 7,233.69.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-shares-pull-back-after-steep-gains-2012-01-17?link=MW_home_latest_news
January Empire State index jumps to 13.5 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/january-empire-state-index-jumps-to-135-2012-01-17 via @MarketWatch
S&P 500 performance around MLK holiday is mixed
Stocks have shown a mixed performance around the Martin Luther King Day holiday over the past decade.
For the past two years the S&P 500 spx -0.49% has shown gains on the Tuesday after the holiday. But for the previous eight years the index saw declines ranging from -0.3% in 2007 to -5.6% in 2009.
2011 saw the best two-day performance over the Friday before and the Tuesday after the holiday, as the S&P 500 logged consecutive gains.
Here’s a look at stocks’ performance going into and coming out of the Martin Luther King Day holiday:
MLK holiday date S&P 500 change prior Friday S&P 500 level on MLK day S&P 500 change following Tuesday
1/21/2002 -1.0% 1127.58 -0.7%
1/20/2003 -1.4% 901.78 -1.6%
1/19/2004 0.7% 1139.83 -0.1%
1/17/2005 0.6% 1184.52 -0.8%
1/16/2006 0.1% 1287.61 -0.4%
1/15/2007 0.5% 1430.73 -0.3%
1/21/2008 -0.6% 1325.19 -1.1%
1/19/2009 0.8% 850.12 -5.6%
1/18/2010 -1.1% 1136.03 1.2%
1/17/2011 0.7% 1293.24 0.1%
1/16/2012 -0.5% 1289.09 ? %
SPY we are banking on those PUTS we loaded the other day. Now if we can just get SHLD to go under $33 again
Bestdamn Pennies
@bestdamnpennies
https://twitter.com/#!/bestdamnpennies
NKE Jan 21 105.0 Calls at .05 (NKE currently at $99.00 HOD/all-time high)
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