UPDATED 10/23/03 Cyclical Bull Starting? I think it's possible. Read on for my reasoning. ************************************************************** 1. Oscillator Ranges Everybody who uses them knows that bounded oscillators (such as RSI and Stochastics) move in a range between zero and one-hundred, right? Well, yes and no. It's true that zero and one-hundred are the theoretical boundaries of the movement of both of these oscillators. When adjusted properly, however, "bounded" oscillators do not in fact move back and forth between zero and one-hundred. In fact, the true range of a properly adjusted oscillator depends on whether the market it is being used to describe is in a bull or a bear phase. This is easiest to see with the RSI, because the default "canned" setting of 14 periods displays this effect quite readily. It is not so easy to see with other oscillators, such as stochastics, because the canned settings for stochastics are so twitchy that it obscures this effect from site most of the time. 2. Why I think we may be seeing the beginning of a cyclical bull starting. ************************************************************** Okay, so, take a look at the first chart. See how the entire range of the RSI changes depending on whether we are in a bull or bear market? The PPO is set so that it displays the percentage by which the index in question is above or below its own 40-week exponential moving average. (The 40-week average is equivalent in length to the 200-day average.) It appears that the old saw is true. The bulls live above the 200-day MA and the bears live below it. Now take a look at the rest of the charts below and notice how these patterns repeat themselves. Interesting, no? Also interesting is that some indices don't seem to have experienced much of a bear market while some, COMP & NDX most notably, have been ravaged by a pack of crazed grizzlies. Note: I've only annotated the first few charts. For the remainder I count on you using your eyes and brain to see what I'm talking about. PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** PLEASE ADDRESS ANY COMMENTS TO ME AT THE MDA THREAD, #board-1320 *************************************************************** ***************************************************************