Well, the toilet is swirling... and what do you buy? What do you short to bankruptcy? Here's the situation formed by the Socialist garbage financial policies that Carter started with the Reinvestment Act, only made worse by Clinton in 1995. Fannie and Freddie were the final nails in the coffin. Here we are today after that massive "redistribution of wealth" to create artificial home ownership for millions of Americans that you wouldn't trust to balance a checkbook...... we bought loads of unnecessary garbage with money we didn't have (i.e. credit), and now we collapse. That was done with fictitious paper... now made real with our tax dollars as our Government bails out their bank buddies with our financial futures. Next... here comes Obama with his "spread the wealth" Socialism, and plans to tax any success you may have... killing the economy and all jobs with business taxes and wicked increases in capital gains. Hello STAGFLATION. So what do you do?
Learn from history in my opinion. Depression is the destination if the tax increases are put in place. That's what caused our first Depression after the great stock market crash, the Government increased taxes then as well.
Our Treasury has printed TRILLIONS of dollars... and yet the dollar gains strength only because we caused a global slowdown and titanic losses overseas. We stopped consuming the cheap stuff they make for us... and we threw them back into the Stone Age. China now chooses to put it's cash towards it's own infrastructure... and that can only lead to them bailing our T-bills. Then the dollar dies... and commodities spike.
The theory and plan that I will explore is an attempt to profit exponentially in one of the worst financial periods in human history. In times of great loss... fortunes can be made. So put together the few pennies you have left and try to find some bargains in the "2008 End of Year Tank", as anyone with profits left in their portfolio bails before Obama raises the capital gains tax.
Getting there... one step at a time.
DISCLAIMOR - This board is opinion only. It should be considered as such. The participants here are not professional brokers and do not recommend that anyone buy, hold, or sell any registered securities. Trade at your own risk. No risk , no reward.
"Marxism sucks. Get paid."
HRB - Tax prep services... and yes, a BANK... with crappy management and huge credit exposure... gonna tank IMO. My bet is bankruptcy is pending. Ride it down to the ground....
C - Exposed... no bailout... gonna tank IMO. It did.. and shorts worked well.
X - Steel...nice up and down. Was at $4 during the first Depression.... then went to $200. May get to the teens... then stall. May start nibbling then.
GS - One of the Feds chosen banks... but now below it's 1999 IPO price. Not near the bottom IMO.
USB - May be one of the first to emerge on the other side. $15 target.
TOL - One year away from any real sales IMO.... gonna get eaten alive by the taxes they have to pay on their dead properties. Near 52-week high... keep on watch. Short worked well.
FRE - Play the privatization tank? Yup, yup. Likely dead in the diluted water.
UNG - Dollar will tank with FRE bailouts. Look for a turn IMO. Flight to commodities will start again. Loading near in the money calls for late 2009. Near bottom IMO...
UUP - The dollar index. IT WILL TANK SOON IMO.
FCX - Gold and copper. This one will fly soon... and pass it's previous highs IMO. Below $15 cannot be ignored. 2 years from now it will be amazing. Hope y'all got some near $15.
USO - Oil index.... great options action. Just like UNG... looks good for 6 month out calls under $40 IMO. Whipturn coming with hyperinflation?
DIG - This one will get sick by 2010. Getting stupid cheap here.
KALU - Aluminum giant... it'll be back. Under $10?
POT - The agriculture play... $50 target is a LOADER IMO. People still need to eat and they have contracts locked in at higher prices.
PAL - Palladium may recover... this one is cheap.
IPI - American Potash giant IPO with 30 million shares. Nice. A steal below $10 IMO.
COF - Dead man walking? He doesn't even know it yet IMO (9/11 - $45 PPS call). Puts a long ways out may be nice gamble play for a tank.... it's got primarily UNSECURED DEBT. Not good. I bet she goes belly up.
HP - Flies with increase in oil. Loading zone at $15 or less?
VIX - Volatility index... keep an eye on this. Puts may be good after the dust settles.
SILVER!!!! Yes, silver.... 1oz. physical rounds on hand are a great hedge for the inflation to come IMO. Get the cheapest silver rounds or bars you can get. 90% junk silver is good too... may be our future currency once the dollar demonetizes. IMO