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Financing broke the stock for now. Either Biogen news or dead money IMO
We know what isn't up. Nasty
Just like all the alternative AD drugs that have failed in AD unfortunately.
Looks like there will be a data presentation on the sixteenth at a conference. Back in for a gamble at 1.70.
And there's the money raise at 1.50
Totally understand. Hoping for the best!
If I owned it, I would be looking for a possible MS trial or something similar to create a nice bump on this low float. There will be no trial readouts in 2024 or 2025 that I can see. I hope for the best with this drug, but it hasn't been investable since the trial failed well over a year ago. Jmho
Sold at 2.12. Only update today on the additional biomarker data was talking about peer reviews and conferences. I expected data at least a month ago. I'm concerned they'll raise money before we get any significant data updates. I could be making a mistake but taking profits from .79 so can't be too upset if I do. I'll buy back if it goes lower most likely. GLTA
Low floater now. Haven't owned in awhile. Could have a move if they ever announce the MS trial I suppose
Exactly
Likely nearing 8 million shares since another installment payment was due this week. Lost nearly 14 million dollars on less than 6 million in sales. Sales last year were lower than 2022. Patent expiring in 12 months. Lot's of other fun nuggets that most won't bother to read.
This one spells out further dilution it would seem:
Going Concern
Petros has experienced net losses and negative cash flows from operations since our inception. As of December 31, 2023, the Company had cash of approximately $13.3 million, positive working capital of $9.6 million, an accumulated deficit of approximately $98.9 million and used cash in operations during the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, of approximately $7.6 million. The Company does not currently have sufficient available liquidity to fund its operations for at least the next 12 months. These conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date that these consolidated financial statements are issued.
GLTA
I like Coya a lot as well. I was hoping to see how the Biogen data plays out here and then moving funds there. Hopefully I'll get that chance. I'm not sure COYA's next coming data will be ideal based on the dosage and other trial parameters but could give a great indication to set up a pivotal P3. Lot of bigger money over there. I've got my eyes on them for sure. JMHO
Disappointed for the ALS community. Hoping NRSN can provide some hope.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amylyx-pharmaceuticals-announces-topline-results-120000695.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=YW5kcm9pZC1hcHA6Ly9jb20uZ29vZ2xlLmFuZHJvaWQuZ29vZ2xlcXVpY2tzZWFyY2hib3gv&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAM8h3Ee_7hkwe__ixrWmntWVPdxe8WZ1ZpxVn7ZSc5Y_cvU8dUOeH8gNnkII0GDb_rsadt-ieRtojdTcEbDoBluMPdmwoVEaO7k8HMPi6OgMQhLipitwShkj668qEiwBreTeVNkxishXrsTPgOOOMTmvMybqLk3QVA9AiTxt2Bt
If Biogen results are good then yes. If not then no lol. It's a gamble. I'm not buying at these levels but my cost basis is .795 so I don't have to.
Yeah I saw that recently. Going to be close overall top line. Folks will need to understand what to look for with readout. Only 10 months to go!
No worries
Now you see why I was approximating a million shares per month for these past 5 months. 8 more months to go
Sorry I haven't followed them BK.
Could be. We just know large dilution and dwindling cash by eoy.
Yeah that's what I have been posting from the filings. That's why I estimate close to 8 million shares now or within the next month or so. It's possible that nasdaq won't allow them to sell that many that quickly. If not, then, it's just a matter of time. People who are buying shares now could very well just be buying shares from the company and not other shareholders. Still doesn't mean it can't move above the $2.25 warrant price but folks will just have to see.
100% true
There is a big gap between 2.25 and 10. Heck there is a big gap between 2.25 and 2.50 and on millions of shares, yes significant selling would commence and opportunities sometimes only last a matter minutes. The lenders know when patents are lapsing and what that means. They know what the track record is for sales. They know not to be greedy.
Good luck with that
Glad to see you're getting my point. I was using approx 1 million shares per month as share price has been lower than current price. Could be 800k. Could be less but its a formula. Company needs the volume to sell the shares. I'm not judging whether there is enough volume or not, or what might happen when the warrant shares start hitting the market if the price gets above 2.25. It's a lot of shares and will be like that all year it looks like. I'm not predicting share price here but simply put, folks should know what they own and what could influence the price. No one has any clue if AI will help sales significantly or not. If it does, another company's generic could potentially be on the market later next year. A lot is up in the air. Competition for OTC has heated up as well. In other words trying to keep it real. Not trying to short. Not hoping anyone loses money. Just hoping no one becomes a bag holder. It's happened several times here. I follow because I owned a company that was part of the original reverse merger and spinoff that allowed Petros to get the Nasdaq listing. I sold my free shares from the spinoff well before the the last reverse split at above 5 bucks, equivalent to many, many, many times the current share price. Maybe that answers more questions. JMHO
Understood. I don't believe there is any significant FDA news in March but you're correct there
could be a lot of hype that could lead into some warrants being cashed in.
So you expect Fda results in "march" or do you expect meetings where at a later date the public will be made aware of any discussions. My understanding is the 1st meeting will be "listen only" and a second type C meeting is scheduled for March 26. When do you predict we hear from that? Will it be in March?
There will be no FDA results in March. It's just meetings. if it's $10 then 7 million warrants would have been cashed in FYI. I figured no response as to how the installments were to be made. Free money out in cyberspace I guess
EOW includes the March 1st installment payment. So that's 5 months of installments that have to be accounted of which you account for NONE, although they are specifically and legally mentioned in the most recent quarterly. My earlier posts gave the calculations for dilution to pay back directly from the 10Q. What do you think that the O/S number will be after this week and based on what calculations? My guess is you won't answer. I'll say again it seems also suspect to be focused on the least meaningful aspect of this story (dilution) instead of a lapsing patent, poor sales, financial losses, or a recently launched OTC ED product .
They didn't have to start making the installments until November. Convertible Notes don't dilute until the payments have to be made. Dilution has to come. How else do they pay the notes back? I'm just reading from the filings. The company bleeds cash. They have to pay in stock. It has to show up at some point right? I don't care if the O/S is 3 million or 15 million. They just had to reverse split to get the number so low. Any idea what the O/S were before that? It's convertible 101. I would be more concerned about the patent and 25+ million in Notes debt than what the heck the share count is. Someone asked. I gave my opinion. Dilution is coming at some point. If you don't think that, then you're the one with no credibility. It doesn't matter what the share count is today IMO
Post 435 and I even bolded parts for folks that don't understand or like to read filings. What about filings scares folks so bad?
What's interesting is not a single person has suggested how these 13 installment payments are being taken care of. Money ain't free. Maybe there is a Nasdaq rule that won't allow for this massive dilution all at once. I don't know. That wouldn't be good. What I do think is money ain't free and drugs 12 years into a a patent cycle don't become blockbuster due to some AI. There actually is an OTC product for ED that was approved last fall but all this great twitter DD isn't mentioning that.
What I don't understand is what the fascination is of the exact number of shares and why someone would stick to a more than 3 month old number when the filings are repeatedly shown regarding payment of the notes. If its 3 million or 8 doesn't matter if you can't pay your bills in cash or have to pay in stock. Sales are poor, patent expires in little over a year, and multiple Notes are due monthly and even yearly. I'm just pointing out the filings. If the company can't sell enough stock, that wouldn't really be a good thing would it?
I don't know about the biomarker data or any partnership discussions are going but this sure is a lot of volume in a positive fashion the last couple days.
Interesting that you can read tweets and not understand that the drug has been a dud for over a decade, yet can't understand that the company owes over 25 million in notes with no idea how its being paid back other than how its explained in the filings. Apparently loans are free money out in social media land. Good grief. If the share count isn't significantly higher than 3 million now, it will be at some point this year. The filing says 13 monthly installments starting last November. Simply tell me how you think that it has been paid back in November, December, January, and February. Folks can bury their head and not read the filings but that typically leads to bagholders at some point, whenever that might be. Using cash balances from last summer and share counts from November and then pretend anyone who says otherwise is short, might not be the best way to invest. Some have have claimed trading at 1/5 cash value when they don't know the cash balance or the share balance or understand 25+ million is owed.
It's in my posts. Apparently you didn't read my quotes from the 10Q. Not surprising. How do you think the monthly installments have been paid these last few months? I've already explained where my numbers come from. You won't read my posts or the filings apparently. They've either been paying in shares, cash, or they still owe over 25 million in notes it looks like to me
How is a November 14 share count proving anyone lying?
How much to they owe each month? I showed you how they figured the payment. Do the math. They are either paying it or they owe it. It's pretty simple. When you have 25 million owed in notes you have to pay some how. You don't bury your head in the sand
Read the last 10q. How are they paying the monthly installments on the 15 million dollar note? They either owe the money or are paying in shares. How many times do I have to use the company's own language from the 10Q. Loans aren't free
Now that is funny.
As long as folks understand that the CEO was marketing this drugs for years, even before he was CEO here. He's had a long time to increase sales. It hasn't happened. This month's type C FDA meeting on the 26th will take some time to even hear back. That means less than a year left on the patent if the company's own filings are correct. I'm just projecting o/s based on the company paying their 13 monthly installments with shares as the 10k says is required. They have to pay with either shares or cash. They don't want to spend the cash they have I would imagine. If they have delayed the payments then its just a matter of time before the dilution occurs. Can someone tell me how they pay back the 15 million convertible note and the other 10.2 million note that is due in yearly installments without burning cash or significant dilution? I mean CEO videos are great but this isn't a start up situation. The drug was approved in 2012. That's why the patent runs out next year.
Only in the message board world when a poster states they could see the price move from current to over 2.25 would they be considered a short. Don't be the last man standing is my opinion.
How are they paying the monthly installments from last summer's note then? This is from the last quarterly filed page 23. If I'm wrong show me where. I'll admit it.
We are required to redeem the Series A Preferred Shares in 13 equal monthly installments, commencing on November 1, 2023. The amortization payments due upon such redemptions are payable, at our election, in cash at 107% of the Installment Redemption Amount (as defined in the Certificate of Designations), or subject to certain limitations, in shares of common stock valued at the lower of (i) the Conversion Price then in effect and (ii) the greater of (A) 80% of the average of the three lowest closing prices of the common Stock during the thirty trading day period immediately prior to the date the amortization payment is due or (B) the lower of $0.396, which is 20% of the “Minimum Price” (as defined in Nasdaq Stock Market Rule 5635) on the date of the Nasdaq Stockholder Approval (as defined below) or such lower amount as permitted, from time to time, by the Nasdaq Stock Market, subject to adjustment for stock splits, stock dividends, stock combinations, recapitalizations or other similar events.
I think it will be around 8 million shares by the end of the week based on my opinion from the filings. It should grow by roughly a million shares per month the rest of the year. If the 2.25 warrants were to get cashed in this year there could be up to 25 million by the end of the year so my guess is somewhere between 15-25 million by the end of 2024 unless another money raise. Jmho