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This is just my opinion. I am not in communication with the company or as far as I know, any investor who is. I do follow NWBO on social media and some of the responses below is based on what I have seen there. My opinion is solely about the business side of NWBO. I think at this time most of us agree that the DCVax platform has incredible potential and that the science part is incredible. I am basing this post on my years of experience as a corporate attorney and CEO of a publicly traded subsidiary. I have been involved with many M&A's as well as licensing deals.
1. There's no imminent buyout. The actual value of NWBO is so far removed from the potential value and I am gathering that LP is going after potential value in the negotiations (if any) dealing with a BO. LP's price appears to be what NWBO would be worth down the road and which is disconnected from today's share price.
2. I have seen people on social media talking about a private equity partner or mentioning companies that could be interested. What this would mean is dilution. The majority of these companies will not be able to do a licensing deal without having to acquire substantial equity in NWBO. They bring little to the table other than funds, though a few BP's might have product that align with the DCVax platform. There's, in my opinion, only 2 BP's who can do a deal without acquiring a large equity position. BMY and Merck both have products that could very much be dependent on the DCVax platform in the future to increase sales and extend patents for their products, Opdivo and Keytruda. These two companies can pay a large upfront payment for an exclusive licensing deal for a certain number of cancer indications that will increase the sales and extend the patents of their product. They would not have a need to own NWBO (though that is likely their wish) but merely an exclusive deal would be huge for them. They are also two companies with lots of cash and with very large oncology network. Any other BP or PE would not be in a similar position and we would likely see a fairly sizeable dilution if that is the way they decide to go.
3. Going at it alone is, again in my opinion, not really an option. LP said that BP's bring nothing more than a checkbook. That is likely true if the goal of NWBO was to only stay in the GBM or neuro oncology space. I am sure they will have no problem getting a fair share of the GBM patients without a BP. Once we get outside of this space, there will be a huge need for a BP who has an extensive oncology network and who has the funds (which we do not) to do a basket trial in as many as possible cancer indications and possibly finish Direct trial. If they go at it alone, those funds which would have to come from the income of Murcidencel for GBM, would be way down the road and it would be a while until they would be able to do any further basket trials and finish Direct. I am sure I am not alone when I say that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is not GBM, but all or most of solid tumor cancers.
4. Again, this is just my opinion. I simply don't see any realization of value of DCVax platform while we are on the OTC. I doubt even MHRA approval will get us much closer, though I have no idea how the market will react. I see many comparison cases being mentioned all over social media, but all of them deals with companies NOT on the OTC. The tremendous rise in these share prices are due to institutional investors getting onboard and taking up a large percentage of outstanding shares. This will not happen to us upon approval on the OTC. IMHO, this COULD happen if we do a non-equity exclusive licensing deal with BMY or MRK. They should be able to get a sizeable upfront payment for the exclusivity and some very nice milestone payments for additional RA's approving as well as Flaskworks approval (Eden). I think that, and an announcement that the BP will immediately start a basket trial and fund the completion of Direct, could get us to a point where the market cap would be high enough for a potential sale. They could include, as a way to forego any equity stake in NWBO upfront, a buyout clause that is triggered when the market cap reaches a value that would be 30-50% of what LP's number is, so that the BP would acquire NWBO at a 2-3x of market cap.
5. In my talks with other investors, they keep bringing up the science and all the amazing news we get from people involved with understanding immunology. I am well aware of how great things are lining up and I have no doubt that in the right situation, this is a potential paradigm shifting technology and that we are at the forefront of discoveries in immunocology. My worries have absolutely nothing to do with the science or even getting approved by MHRA. My worries are purely in regard to where we are at as a company to take advantage of what the future holds for us. Every months of delay in getting a basket rial going on this end is a month lost with potentially huge sales in the back end. I am sincerely hoping that every effort to get a partnership deal with one of the two key targets, in my opinion, are ongoing and that they (management) are aware that this is not about being a tough negotiator, but about getting a deal done. Even if it's not the perfect deal, it will be preferential to going at it alone or going through a heavy dilution via PE or smaller biotechs. IMHO, we are in dire need of getting the right BP partner to maximize the value of our incredible platform.
Have an amazing day and don't worry about the daily SP.
No, but if yours is dstock, I can write you a PM on there.
Twitter, yes for me it will always be Twitter, is a good place to check. A lot of former posters from here are on there and that seems to be the best place to find reasonable posts and DD about Northwest. There's actually discussions between NWBO longs, who don't always agree on things but carry out the conversations in a respectful matter. A lot of the posters don't actually post much, but will engage in conversations with replies to the posts there. It is not free from the HF social media army, but their posts are easily discarded as they like here, do not have any factual basis for there arguments.
I find it funny that some people think that getting a value of just under $5 per share when the current share price is $0.6375 is a joke. I do think that NWBO potentially is worth a lot more down the line, but it is down the line and it is potentially. If the potential of DCVax-L is as great as many of us thinks, that value will be realized by (for the sake of this discussion) Merck as well if they take over the company. I think that a company like Merck could realize the potential value of the DCVax platform much better than NWBO could ever do on their own, which means that the current MC of Merck of $326B could double and maybe even tripple in the next few years with the roll out of the DCVax platform, making the 7.7x the 24 for 1 deal would be possibly with 15-20x in a year or two. If something like this would ever happen, I would keep the shares of the acquiring company as they will have a great chance to add value to their SP.
It is important to note that I do not believe this deal will be done and the above is just a response to people thinking that any deal like that is a joke. I still hope that NWBO will become a license holder company and that a BP will be the licensee who will take the DCVax platform to the market and maybe in the long run, take over the company. I think that is the best way to achieve value, both short term and long term.
In regard to the discussion of no news before approval, I would be very dissapppointed if we didn't get major news before approval. I think that we have a great chance of seeing Flaskworks approval, Nature article/preliminary results of combo trial, basket trial or partnership agreement before we get approved. I don't think all of those will happen, but would be dissappointed if we didn't get at least one of those.
Last year I was hoping for and advocating for a partnership agreement with a BP. At this point in time, it might be more valuable to hold off with that until after approval. I think the value of waiting will be greater than the time it takes for approval.
As for the people who says that because of fundamentals, the SP will keep going down until approval if no news. I think that is absurd. Fundamentals are the fact that they have applied for MHRA approval, that they have the potential to solve the manufacturing which has plagued companies with highly individualiazed drugs, that we have seen indications that the combo treatments can increase the alteady significant potential of DCVax-L and that they have been in discussions with BP's about the future roll out of the DCVax platform. This makes the fundamentals in regards to future earnings potential look good and will be the reason the SP will not tank if no news before approval. The MM's and HF's do not live in a vacuum. They are aware of what is going on. There has been so little volume on a daily basis. 2M ($1.3M) shares traded is nothing in a company with a $700M MC.
Enjoy your weekend and get some fresh air.
JMHO
The problem in analyzing a potential move with NWBO is that almost all other companies I have seen us compared to are on a major exchange. This means that once they announce partnership deals, they will get a ton of institutional buying. We will not get that part on OTC. Institutional investors is the key for NWBO to achieve a close to fair evaluation. A major exchange is key to achieve that, There's a reason these HF's are shorting OTC stocks. The SP is much easier to control on OTC. It is much cheaper for the shorts and manipulators to keep the SP artificially low on OTC than to risk it getting to a level where an uplist is possible.
They have let the SP run a few times because they felt sure they could tank it on command. Now I realize that this was when there was still huge uncertainty among the general public about the outcome of DCVax-L and we are now in a completely different place. That is likely why they are trying to not let it run up as they do no longer feel certain that they can move it back down with the same ease as previously.
I am by no means an advocate for an R/S. That being said, there's definitely situations where such a move could be the right move. $MULN did one just before Christmas which was on the back of good news the same day and more good news a few days later. They did it to stay on Nasdaq, which is normally a death sentence. They are currently up around 70% since their R/S.
"IF" NWBO should choose to do so, I would hope it would be in conjunction with an approval and/or partnership deal and coordinated with an uplist at the time of the R/S. Without a simultaneous uplist AND approval and/or partnership agreement, this 'could' be ugly. Now, if they had a deal with a major exchange in place and great news, it seems like a no brainer. Once we get to a major exchange, we will see institutional buying if the approval or validation by a BP partnership happens simultaneously. We really need to be on a major exchange. We really need institutional ownership. Without both, we could linger on here even after approval in the $2ish range. As I said, I am not in favor of an R/S, unless it would be well coordinated with news and uplist. For now this doesn't seem to be on the table, so I will wait until we see some milestones realized before speculating about this again.
Just left a message with a former client of mine who is friends with him and has toured with him for years about DCVax. Just in case it’s not benign.
LOL X 100. This is exactly why I stopped posting here. I write a post supporting your DD and showing the fallacy in the poster who said his buddies were not 'messing' around with DCVax. You misinterpret it and start attacking me without really trying to read my post. This is not about relaying information, this is about posting something and then going abeshit defending it against FUD and obviously even supporting posts.
LOL. Have you seen any agreements between them? It would be fine if they signed an agreement, but absent an agreement, it would be highly inappropriate for them to 'mess' with DCVax. I am not saying that they won't enter into an agreement with Merck. I actually think Merck is the heavy favorite to do a deal with NWBO. My point was that the posters two friends not working on DCVax was only natural and not a negative as they have yet to enter into an agreement.
That's good to hear, because that would be infringing on NWBO's patent as they do not have an agreement to 'mess' with DCVax.
Not seeing where it says he is expecting a PR from NWBO. It might just be me not being able to read, but it seems he is just posting the time it normally takes for acceptance/validation.
Hope everyone came into the new year the right way. Being semi retired has a few advantages. I am not making above the max for adding to my Roth, so today I made the annual contribution. I am happy with the shares I could add, without making any predictions on whether the timing was right. Let’s hope we have a great 2024.
Happy New Year to all the NWBO followers around the world. May 2024 be a great year for GBM patients and NWBO investors.
Congratulations, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
This has zero importance to us as shareholders. Even if they have to relinquish some of their warrants/options, it is negligible in the big picture. I think it is important to keep our eyes on the price and not pay much attention to the two law suits. JMHO
There’s a reason these guys seem to know very little about the science behind the DCVax platform. If they were really going to talk about the science, they would be promoting it and that would be against their ‘mission’. At this point in time, it is impossible to be negative about the science so they go to whatever else they can lie about without there being irrefutable evidence against them, like playing with impatient investors emotions.
I am not defending the company, but they could have waited until they knew what the timeline would be or until they were cedrtain that they had corrected the issue on their part. My first reaction was also to question the timing, but coming out with a modified timeline was definitely better than a PR with no timeline for submission.
People will always make assumptions to fit their own narrative when they lack information.I agree with you Bio. We do not know why they decided to makle the change. Until we find out, I will not try to analyse the situation.
I do not know where we will end or where we will go until we get more news. I do think that the delay of the MAA was already somewhat discounted in the SP. I am not in the camp that thinks we will test new lows or even close to them. JMHO and I have been wrong many times before.
They said no MAA application news until mid-late November. That's not an indication of ANY news until then. But you do you.
I have to admit that my first reaction to the PR this morning was that the timing was bad. Why did they not PR this at an earlier time? They definitely knew that they would not be able to submit in the timeframe they laid out on Aug. 29. Then it struck me that the timing is likely due to the fact that they did not have another timeframe to give to us. They have likely been trying to solve the problem and the 'late' PR could be due to the fact that they haven't, until now, been able to communicate their expectations for a new timeframe. If they came out last week and said that we have run into a problem, that we expect to figure out, so we have no timeframe to give to you, this place would have been even worse to visit. I could be wrong, but that's my thoughts on why they didn't come out until now with the PR we saw today. JMHO
I am not worried the slightest. I feel very good about my investment.
Agree. I do like that they are now communicating so we are not left in the dark. My investment thesis have not changed. Would I have liked to see the process being underway? Yes. I wish we would have been approved by now, but we are not. 6 weeks is not the end of the world. JMHO
I don’t see where it says anything about a PR during that period….
Did anything in that Aug. 29 PR say they would issue a PR in the 30-45 day timeframe?
They have scripts they follow. He went straight for the LP digs. Not something a newbie would start off with.
The boiler room is bringing over assistance from one of the employees from other boards, because the ones on this board have zero credibility and have no value anymore. Ignore list is a wonderful thing.
Kuehne Nagel was in charge of all the logisticsfor the trials. They are one of the biggest logistic companies in the world. They have a Biopharma and Vaccine division, which handled all the logistics for NWBO. https://us.kuehne-nagel.com/en/-/services/pharma/biopharma-vaccines
LOL, but they didn't. I know the guy who was in charge of all the logistics for NWBO for almost 15 years. That's how I found out about NWBO. He was the head of the biotech department for one of the biggest logistic companies in the world. That, however, doesn't mean that they couldn't be in the running for the post approval logistics. As far as I know, they have yet to sign a logistics provider.
I am out then. You have to pre cry until the ball stops........
Don't know if they were a subcontractor, but they were not the one with the logistics contract.
Not true, but that doesn't mean they won't be doing the shipping after approval. The company who handled the logistics for the trials, are currently not under contract with NWBO.
Right on cue, the fake Bigger followed me this morning. Blocked immediately.
And a fake InvestorTurf and a fake Tim Seymore account!!!!!! I block all those. Not in a need for fake followers.
Thanks. Shot 69 and 67, five years ago when I won (by 1 shot). I was 50 then. Haven't been in the 60's since last year, so would require a miracle or a hurrican as I do good when windy.
Thanks,
Even if golfswing showed up this weekend, I need two rounds in the high 60's to have a shot and I am lucky if I can post two rounds in the high 70's. LOL. This is a gross championship. Might have had a chance if it was net, as my handicap has skyrocketed this year and is the highest in 25 years.
Bored and having time on my hands, I decided to post my view of the months to come.
I am really only interested in seeing a partnership agreement. In my mind, and I have been wrong before, it is the major catalyst I am looking for. It will start the clock on trials in other cancer indications, which is, again in my opinion, where the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is. It will give us access to mainstream media, which would have been huge yesterday when the FDA approved an oncology drug with no internal control group. This news is indirectly huge for NWBO, but because of lack of coverage, only the NWBO followers will know this. It will assist with the infrastucture of getting DCVax-L for GBM to market and it will hopefully provide liquidity to NWBO, now and in the future through milestone payments.
As for any other event to happen, Flaskworks is obviously huge, as it will provide a way to scale. Without media coverage, this again will just be huge to those who already follow NWBO, hence a partnership deal prior to Flaskworks approval will be a big boost to that event.
In terms of the application, acceptance and approval, that will happen eventually. I am not concerned about an "Approximate window of 30-45 days" from August 29th PR. They are working as hard as they can on this process and I will sit back and wait for it to play out. The same goes for any other RA's. These approvals will happen in time.
I saw yesterday that some people were speculating that they used this period to dilute the company. If anyone thinks that LP and the rest of management would not do anything in their power to not dilute THEMSELVES, they are complete morons. That's one thing thats good about management owning such a decent percentage of the company, they stand to lose much more than 99.9% of investors.
JMHO. Have a great day. Get out and do something outside before the weather becomes gloomy and you can't. My clubchampionship is this weekend and I have not played golf since August 23, so I need to hit the range today and hopefully play a practice round tomorrow. As a former club champion, I am fully aware of what it takes and I have ZERO chance of winning so will just enjoy the amazing fall weather here in Vegas.
NVCR is not a biotech. It's a medical devide company.
I put the Kleenex back in the closet and reverted back to toilet paper.
I think it is of utmost importance as it will be required to scale up. I just don't think the market will react as much as when they sign a partnership agreement or when L gets approved.
No, I really don't think the 45 days matter. We have 2 big catalysts in our future. Despite the importance of other catalysts, like Flaskworks, which I personally think is a HUGE catalyst, Approval and partnership deal are the two that will move the share price the most. I actually think that a partnership agreement will be biggest catalyst. I expect we will get a partnership agreement first of those two. Here are the main reasons:
-BP's access to mainstream media will put us on the map, both in regard to the general medical community, but also to the general investment community.
-MONEY, both to NWBO but also to get basket trials going. The true value is in all the other cancer indications and the news that basket trials will be starting makes the revenue from most solid tumor cancers closer in time
-Validation. Doing a partnership agreement will not only work as a validation for DCVax platform, but also for NWBO.
-Infrastructure in non-gbm cancer indications (likely wouldn't hurt in GBM, even though the consensus seems to think they can handle GBM by themselves)
Good luck to all the longs.