Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
A pattern? SIGA dumps 2 fridays in a row, only to surge afterwards.
Also, Fauci strongly recommends TPOXX in an interview with Bloomberg on July 15
Amazing Benzinga interview. I thought at first it would be hokey, as I never heard of Benzinga. He said stuff you would NEVER hear on CNBC, Bloomberg, etc.
Here is the link to the interview at the correct timestamp:
Today: Seeking Alpha Article - Interesting how he recommends the Dec 16 calls at $22.50 and not buying the stock itself, which I think is a far better play.
By the way, with 3 hours until the closing bell, volume traded today so far is over 100% of the float. This is indicative of what to expect going forward.
Swizzer - As for Friday, big buyers were loading up. They won't load up on current prices, they want a discount. The price was driven down for that reason.
The market is controlled now. Its no longer a free market. Look at the S&P from March 2020 to now. If you flipped the chart, that would make logical sense. Individuals that invest now are trying to bet alongside the big players and earn a piece of the action.
SIGA has not taken off yet. I imagine this week they should announce expansion plans to produce more supply. They have to do it, whether they announce or not. They know US Emergency Use Authorization approval is coming. The WHO declaration yesterday clinched that easy. They are also a buyout target, with their main competitor offline for 6+ months.
This stock isn't even hot yet. I expect $30 to $50 a share once we do consecutive days of 80%+ of the float in volume. It doesn't take much. The float is only 35 million shares.
Their financials I believe are due in August as well. That would also put it over the moon, as this last quarter was fiscally impressive.
Here's what I see happened in the last 72 hours:
- WHO declares Monkeypox a global health emergency, now opening the doors for other countries to order more TPOXX.
- Bava-Nordic (TPOXX competitor) just shut down their plants until early 2023. This LESSENS supply and essentially removes a competitor.
- CDC head wants public access to Monkeypox vaccines to be easier.
And on Friday, SIGA stock price dips? That's accumulation. Other people want in at a lower cost. Given the acceleration of what is going on now, that window of opportunity may have closed by Monday morning's opening bell.
I look at SIGA from a simple finance level:
Company is profitable, with a large margin.
Cash on hand : $153M.
Debt : $2M (negligible).
Float : 35 million shares. On an average day, 10% to 30% of the float is traded. That indicates the stock price will move, quickly.
According to Kennedy's book, my understanding is that Fauci and Gomez worked together for years and they are friends. If true, that speaks volumes.
New York Magazine wrote a piece on TPOXX: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/07/tpoxx-is-a-monkeypox-antiviral-but-try-getting-it.html
I made alot off INTV and lost some as well. I still own it. I don't see a future after the May 12 halving for INTV.
"Beer Stein" is a good analogy. Better off getting drunk at this point than expecting your INTV shares to allow you to buy a beer factory.
@ap17: When INTV first came out, it was the best mining stock on the market. Bar none. The Float was 7.9 mil. They had crypto assets. 10% of the float was a mere 790K in trading volume. Strong crypto price moves made 1 million share trading volume days common, which skyrocketed the stock. That's why it went from $0.75 to $6.75 Shorters got killed. Decimated.
A higher float makes that momentum much, much harder. Today the shorters win, simply waiting it out. And not long.
@dipbuy: The prices of the study were based on Dec 2019. Bitcoin was at a low at that point. Higher than 2016, but the whole point is the crypto assets are worth way, way, way more at a short term future date.
In 2017, BTC was $10K. INTV was above $1.
BTC is in the last 3 days near $10K and we are under $0.05... under a nickel ! How high does BTC or ETH need to trade for INTV to be $1? And with the high float, how much volume does the stock need to get there?
So far today 1.5 million shares traded. That's $60,000. That's not alot of money at all. Don't exepect big big movements at such low dollar volumes. The highest volume day we had in the last 6 months was 5 million shares ($50,000 at 0.01 c/share).
Steve's play is all in for next week. Halvings occur every 4 years. This is the exit plan for anyone in this. Next week is the final act in high prices of INTV.
2 MUST READ POSTS: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=152893864
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=152757845
BTC and ETH assets were sold / traded / transferred (I suspect more like GIVEN) to other parties at what is believed to be market low prices. Tthe Crypto assets numbers changed to the upside in following 10Qs after I raised the issue here on the board did .
This stock would be in the dollar range if the BTC and ETH they mined originally was retained as assets. Any investor (hedge fund) is more than happy to cover the electricity and rent costs in order to reap the gains on a major move in BTC, which is all but a given.
The Debt and the amount of BTC / ETH INTV has as assets is what matters in relation to the stock price. When the debt was a *mere* $11 Million, which at that time was an outrage....for INTV to be debt free BTC would have needed to be trading at $335,000. ETH would have to be at $25,000. Either were and are completely unrealistic.
The debt has since doubled. That means the price of BTC needs to be higher JUST TO BE DEBT FREE.
The Shares Outstanding are near 10x the original listing.
The Float has ballooned, further reducing the ability for this to ever reach $1, let alone $6.
ETHE may go through a short squeeze. I understand that there are some platforms that short GBTC, so I am guessing that the same can be done for ETHE. ETHE's float is about 400,000 shares. Daily trading volume for ETHE has been 50-100K. That's 15-25% of the total float. That is significant. If the ETH price rises faster, it may produce a squeeze on ETHE, significantly increasing the NAV.
@realtmg: The float is ~31 Million shares. What are you talking about?
Link: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/INTV/security
The float over the past 3 years went from ~8 million shares to 30 million shares. The O/S equally ballooned. The daily trading volume of the stock has not been not enough volume to move the price significantly.
If he reverse splits 3:1 - the stock is guaranteed to tank.
As for BTC, the question is how much crypto is in inventory. After the last 3 years, INTV sold away the majority of its crypto at market low prices. I wrote this before: selling off the crypto assets negates the value of the stock entirely.
See my previous posts Here and Here
The major concern in the most recent 10Q was that the number of shares went from 29 million to 65 million. That was a 100% increase in the number of shares. The float is also larger.
This makes it difficult to move the needle upwards, as it did in 2017,There is not enough volume trading of the stock to produce something like a short squeeze. Getting out of the sub $0.10 level is very hard.
We've seen from the last 2 years that INTV offloads it's crypto at what we believe to be near bottom market prices and generally does not retain the crypto it nines, thereby negating the entire effort.
Doubling the shares was crushing to discover.
I've never seen a press release where the CEO poo-poo's his own company.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/open-letter-organovo-shareholders-organovo-130000809.html
The share dilution was to pay for all that expenses & investments.
HODL was Steve's mantra on Twitter. Again and again. You would have to be blind not to see that.
...and...ONLY A MORON WOULD SELL CRYPTO at a market low when you know the prices will be significantly higher later.
Crypto was sold by INTV when ETH was $78. Everyone knew this was the bottom. Whomever bought profited massively.
BTC was trading at $8,250 on September 30, 2019.
Let's imagine this scenario:
-A "close friend" of INTV buys 53.5 BTC for $2,000.
-The company reports it mined and sold $107,000 in Crypto.
In actuality, the crypto was worth $441,000 based on the market price.
-The close friend sends the company $107,000 in cash or wire.
-In the meantime he sells for an immediate $300,000 profit or HODL.
There's alot more here going on than is shown in the financials. I suspect INTV has become a crypto ATM for those close to the company now.
INTV APPEARS TO BE SELLING MOST OF ITS CRYPTO : "Common_centz" Thank you for pointing this out. The theft was an interesting announcement. I doubt the company uses multiple wallets, unless they are mining some obscure currencies.
The $33,000 theft had me perplexed: According to the numbers, at the end of Sept 30, 2019 report, Page 4 shows INTV claimed to mine $107,465 in digital currency, or the equivalent of approximately 13 Bitcoin, or approximately 607 ETH.
So they mined $107K and lost $33K in crypto. That should leave $74K in crypto assets (approx ~418 ETH or ~9 BTC).
Now go back to the document and look at the crypto currency digital assets for the end of Sept 30, 2019 (ASSETS page 3)
"Digital currencies: $9,745" (That's ~1 BTC or ~55 ETH)
That's a discrepancy of $65,000. Or ~8 BTC or ~363 ETH.
That's more money in crypto that left the company than the theft itself. That suggests to me INTV is selling its crypto assets. Leaving itself with next to zero crypto at the end of EACH QUARTER.
--- > June 30 shows the company mined $48,000 in crypto and was left with a mere $2 (Two Dollars) in crypto at the end of the period. (Page 3: ASSETS)
That can only mean one thing: INTV is selling nearly all of its crypto to pay off debts.
If true, the winner is the long term holder of crypto, not INTV, nor it's shareholders. I would expect someone close to the company would be siphoning this off in a handsome deal. Crypto is completely traceable, so all the transactions are in the ledger for ETH and BTC. So whomever is getting this can be found out if need be.
It's right there, on the document. All that crypto the company's mining for the last 2 year would be worth more over time (even with the diluted shares)....are GONE.
I used to be really bullish on this company and it's goals. As long as the company retained the crypto assets, a significant hike in the BTC price would spike the stock price. INTV could sell both crypto and stock at such time to pay off debts and be way ahead of the game, showing nice revenues and profits. But if there is nearly no crypto in the cupboard, that entire argument is made moot.
The smart money, which is the BIG money, will end up staying away. What is left is dumb money. Dumb money and penny stocks never end well. Never.
SEC Financials for INTV https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520118/000147793219006554/intv_10q.htm#ITEM%204.%20MINE%20SAFETY%20DISCLOSURES
DEBT: Originally the company was pumped as "debt free with an 8 million share float". 12-18 months ago when I saw the corrected 10Q forms, it showed a substantial change in that financial claim. The corected 10Qs showed an $11 million loss (cumulative). At the time, I did a calculation based on the assets: for INTV to break even (selling all the BTC it had in assets to be zero in debt).... Bitcoin would need to be trading at ~$335,000 ...or... ETH would have to be trading at ~$25,000.
I knew that possibility was unrealistic. I reached out to Steve but he was taciturn.
ASSETS: The following quarter I saw samething more alarming; the crypto assets from the previous quarter had been substantially reduced, sold at a time of a crypto market low. This was done just prior to the second wave rise in crypto prices. The whole point of INTV as a mining company is that all capital investments made will result in a huge windfall when crypto prices goes parabolic...PROVIDED THE COMPANY RETAINS ITS CRYPTO ASSETS IT MINES. That point is made moot if INTV is selling its crypto prematurely.
The bigger question is, when ETH was at $78, whom did INTV sell most of its ETH to????? Someone made alot of money on that deal, and INTV, along with you and I got the short end of the stick.
Since then, 10Qs show that the company has some ETH and BTC along with other crypto assets. The company is clearly mining. But with less crypto means it will require a higher BTCUSD or ETHUSD price than the numbers I mentioned above to break even.
INTV bypassed some of that by diluting the stock, massively.
DILUTION: The dilution of the stock causes great dilemmas here:
The original float was 7.9 million shares. A trading day of 1-2 million shares in volume substantially moved the needle and made prices double.
Today, the float is 20 million shares. To move the needle, you need a MINIMUM of 2 million shares in trading volume on a single day. We are trading way, way less than that in volume.
The market capitalization shows that someone can buy this company (or its assets) for a mere $500K.
FUTURE: Options
====================
REVERSE SPLIT: A reverse split will anger the existing investors. Reverse splits are historically very bad. Say it is a 100 to 1 reverse split and INTV opens at $1.00. By the end of the day it is $0.80, next day: $0.70, and so on, until it is $0.10 and we are back where we were, only much worse. This has ZERO upside. Even if the float goes to 2 million shares, no one will want it.
CRYPTO PRICES: Parabiloic pricing of Crypto right now according to all the TA people I know do not see that happening. Keep in mind that if INTV is tied to the BTC price, INTV should be currently trading significantly higher; $0.50-$0.75 at a minimum. INTV has decoupled itself from the price of BTC, an ominous development.
DEBT: The company needs to operate, so giving out more shares will work, but those investors will want more, so the crypto assets WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOLD. This thereby eliminates the entire essence of the company.
ASSET SALES: This is the worst outocme for investors. If Steve sells the assets, it would leave a shell company with nothing: no mining equipment, no crypto assets. Nada. This is common when share prices fall this low.
PIVOT: Another option is the company pivots to another business. There are other profitable busines models out there. There would be a downtime, but the right vehicle would turn this around.
Can you please copy/paste the text?
@Scotttrader80 - where is the link? I don't see that on her site.
To the noobs: ETCG is a more complicated trade than your standard stock or index fund. There are multiple elements here at play. In essence, it's a volatile derivative. I've been studying this one for a while. Its a fantastic opportunity if you are able to digest and analyze most or all of the data.
I like the stock and its potential. The only problem I see is the volume is so low I can't even get a buyer to match my offer price. Doesn't matter for the bid/ask. The volume is simply too low.
I read the latest tweets for INTV. Screen shots of the mining operations shows it's still profitable and Steve seems to have his head in the right direction.
A crypto pop in price would certainly help INTV. I like the fact that he's looking for value M&A's at this point. There are alot of ICOs that are now nearing maturity in their development. Their cash is certainly depleted due to the low token values, so the timing is good for INTV to engage.
Looking forward to the 10K. Q1 2019 financials will not be far behind that either. The delay is understandable, as long as it happens once.
Not many tweets about the Philadelphia Eagles so far....pretty much all crypto and the company.
Overall I am highly bullish on this company.
10Q - WOW! ~300-400% asset gain!
I'm glad the board is quiet today.
Did anyone see the comparisons to last year?
The company grew its assets 300-400% while at the same time reduced its liabilities by more than 66%.
You rarely see that, ever.
Despite the lull in crypto prices, INTV still continues to mine quite profitably.
Loss for the Qtr was $100K, which is essentially nothing.
BTC is expected to continue retracement in the near term. Overall consensus is a bull run is due later this year.
For those that never read Nicholas Taleb's book the "Black Swan" I highly recommend it. This is one where advanced planning and the correct environment will result in a huge event. Longs just are sitting and waiting for that moment.
These are not the sell signals you are looking for.....Move along....
BTC volume 29,000 BTC traded in last 24 hours. Over 9,000 BTC volume traded since late last night was selling. We are watching a retraction for days/weeks, then another bull run for BTC. Its possible BTC may flash crash. It may be a great buy opportunity there.
I would have liked a repeat of December, but the volume of BTC trading wasn't there. It was too small. Only in the last 48 hours did more than 15,000 BTC trade each day.
With INTV, if you hold it, ignore the price. Watch the volume. Its still small. So the price is meaningless in this market.
BTC run followed with earnings / news and volume trading in INTV is what we are patiently waiting for. It will happen. I believe at least once or twice this year. But not today.
Daily volume of BTC went from 9,000 BTC per day last week to 15,000 BTC per day. The BTC pumpers got what they wanted; they achieved FOMO. The bulls are now in charge of BTC's direction.
This also means that INTV will do well during this period.
INTV's volume is still low and is highly manipulative. The 40% spoken on short interest is in the daily volume. Shorters are only playing 20,000-50,000 shares a day of the stock. For these firms, this is $25K to $75K, which is peanuts.
Anything below 500,000 shares traded a day is meaningless. A tightening of supply in a 1-2 million shares trade daily will spike the stock. That will come in the form of either :
- profits
- a massive bull run of BTC to the $15,000-20,000+ levels
- or news that blows us away.
There is also a slow and steady growth factor, which is what Steve is looking for. I see that playing out as well. But I have also seen highly profitable companies with no trading volumes. There was an article about liquidity in the markets in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. It mentioned stocks with volumes so low people can't sell (or buy).
Volume, Volume, Volume. That's what needs to be watched. Both BTC volume and INTV volume.
Anything is possible for market manipulation in INTV with such low trading volumes. We're waiting for the BTC wave. And 9000 BTC volume in 24 Hrs is not the wave. We need 20K - 50K BTC trading in an upmarket. When that hits, INTV's volume rises. By orders of magnitude. Then we watch the fireworks display.
@Doddi - BTC has been trading on thin volume; 9000-12000 BTC per day. That suggests the rise may not hold.
@Doddi - I'm 100% bullish on this stock. INTV's competitors cleared the way to show INTV is simply a better run company. Plus I've never seen a CEO do what Steve is doing in terms of both sharing information and strategy, publicly and in real time.
INTV's share price is directly tied to the price of BTC. A rise or fall in BTC means the same for INTV.
Tradingview's top analysts see a bear market for BTC over the next few days/weeks. That means the same for INTV.
After that time period, all the analysts predict a breakout, a new wave and the $20K BTC price challenged. Once that happens, you will most likely see 1M+ share volumes of INTV traded and tightness of supply.
@sdm1002- you are off on your calculations.
Your calculations mentioned the facility can "handle up to 1500 rigs" - INTV doesn't currently have 1500 rigs. They have less than half of that.
Standard PE ratios are 15. Not 30.
You estimated BTC at 25K. I agree a second wave is coming. But, according to a slew of analysts at tradingview, a bear market for BTC needs to be played out first, which they see concluding in a few weeks time. Then almost all are extremely bullish. But your estimated 25K for BTC, while it may happen in 2018, doesn't really reflect the current market.
I think the prices INTV has now, in the low $1 range is valid and accurate for the current BTC market. Going forward, its undervalued. INTV is also trading the cryptocurrencies it mines. The ALT coin market are doing double digit and triple digit gains this month.
I would expect a brief drop in INTV price when BTC drops. It may go back down to $0.70 ... a brief win for the shorts.
One other thing, and this affects the shorters the most. We haven't had a large volume trading day since the $1-$7-$3 run. Most of our daily volume is 25K to 150K shares. Ignore the price at these volumes, it simply doesn't matter or give a picture of how well INTV can do. You need 1M+ days in volume to see the real picture.
Once BTC rises, significantly and fast, as is expected for the second wave...9M shares outstanding of INTV will mean tightness for shares in the market, and a 2M+ day of volume trading will mean that shorters will be scrambling to cover.
DrBadman - Thanks. I didn't know the IGNORE option existed. BrownEye: See Ya. Wouldn't want to Be Ya!
GBTC price is 11.6% the price of Bitcoin right now. Any time it is below 12% it is a buy signal. On Dec 11, GBTC was trading around the same price. Bitcoin was also trading around the same price on Dec 11 as well ($15K). From the chart, I expect a reversal in the price of Bitcoin. This is likely to occur overnight. If it does, GBTC should gap up much higher in the morning.
ETH and LTC are stable in price. Normally if BTC goes down alot, the entire sector follows.
Minute to minute fluctuations in BTC price affect the stock.
GBTC today got hammered today because NYSE will allow for an index fund. It negates the entire company's side-stepping premise of being an index. Now its just an asset play that was trading at a 200% premium. Big correction there going on. I don't think its over. Watching closely there as well.
Its called a delivery address. 38 or 42 Bitmains can fit in a small van.
Light volume today again. L2 shows few buyers and sellers. Price movements here don't matter. Will watch when buying comes in strong.
Bitcoin priced dipped, now on the rise. That's the reason for the dip. Another buy opportunity.
The bigger news was in the CEO's tweet this morning:
9 AM Tweet
This just arrived:
That's 38 Bitmain units
Its physical evidence the company is mining.....Not just words and promised numbers
10% of share Volume. Mostly selling this morning. GBTC got slammed this morning way worse.
BillionaireEye: The fundamentals of the stock showed it was way undervalued. Even at the current price it is undervalued compared to their competitors. Oh, and the competitors, they lose money. Millions each quarter. INTV is profitable out of the box. I am all for taking a profit, but on this one... you sold way to early.
Tomorrow's Gap Up will be strong.