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R59- META, yes & I just bought AAOI
at around $11 today ! The semi stocks are also down after hours, so what chance does any tech stock have tomorrow ! I looked at AAOI, and do find it attractive around $10-$11, as MSFT has said they are planning on even more data centers. Thing is with AAOI is, analysts feel they will post around $.90 over the next year, which is over twice as high as six months ago. IMO this all has to do with the analysts feeling that MSFT will give AAOI all the business they can handle. However I have a feeling AAOI will go down to around $10 or lower before earnings on May 9. I do feel AAOI is a strong hold into earnings at around $10-$11, and I will likely hold.
I'm also tempted to hold IART into earnings on May 6, if the stock is in the $28s or lower the day before.
New Portolio
AAOI 12,000 shares
GERN 70000 shares
Cash $6237
Buy AAOI @ $10.98
Buy 3000 AAOI @ $10.98 = $32,940
New Portfolio
AAOI 9000 shares
GERN 70000 share
Cash $39,177
Buy AAOI @ $11.06
Buy 2000 AAOI @ $11.06 = $22,120
Buy AAOI @ $11.05
Buy 1000 AAOI @ $11.05 = $11,050
AAOI- Nibbling @ $11
I think the stock could go to $10, but that's about it before earnings on May 9. MSFT, their largest customer, keeps adding to their supply of data centers. I believe that AAOI could still make $1 going forward 4 quarters, despite the weak Q1 to come. I just don't think it's over for AAOI just yet, and hopefully they come to life again with strong Q2 guidance.
Buy AAOI @ $11.04
Buy 6000 AAOI @ $11.04 = $66,240
Updated portfolio
Cash $138,587
GERN 70000 shares
KIK- GL
You obviously were swayed by the short report. What's your take presently ? thanks
SS, PERI($11.60).- I think the bounce may be over
I was thinking about the $9 cash/share. However I think PERI may only receive a 6-7 PE now on eps estimates of around $1.50 on Yahoo, especially with the MSFT contract expiring in Dec coming. Just too much uncertainty about the future of PERI in general
Sell IART @ $29.18
Sell 4700 IART @ $29.18 = $137,146
GERN- Can the FDA be bought off ?
FDA said they don't think there is much efficacy for GERNs drug Imtelstat. In addition, they don't think the risk of the side effects(specifically Cytopenias and Nuertopenias) are worth the benefit the drug gives to so few. The Advisory Committee told the FDA on March 14 that there is huge efficacy for Imetelstat, and it met primary and secondary end points in phase 3. They also said the side effect of Cytopenias can be well managed, and the beneifts of the drug far outweigh the risks. They said that around 40% of the patients taking the drug have much improved lives, and are either totally transfusion independent or take far fewer transfusions, even after e year. They said overall hemoglobin levels are much higher for these 40%, and patients just feel much better. They said that being there is just about no treatment for these patients that have MDS(a deadly anemia), the Imetelstat is an option well worth taking, despite the fact that 60% were non respondent, and had to endure side effects while on the drug.
My fear is that there was no logical reason for the FDA to have been so negative in light of a 12 to 2 vote as a suggestion to the FDA to approve the drug. I am concerned that big pharma was swaying their view on Imetelstat, and that if they still are, that FDA approval may not be given on June 16, despite that fact that 97% of time the Advisory Board has a major consensus, the drug gets approved.
Hweb- DRCT, I still think a scam
Value, now that would explain Wadegarret portfolio
2.4 year gains of 260% !
R59, Ok,
thanks
R59- SMCI, I can't read the article
It's making me sign up to read
Hweb- GERN
Like to get your opinion on whether the FDA can be bought. I mean, I wonder how often the FDA comes out days before the all important Advisory Committee meeting, and ditches a stock. That's exactly what they did with Geron. Here is the scathing report the FDA had just two days before the ADCOM meeting on march 14(which ended up in favor or approval with a 12 to 2 vote)...
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-fda-staff-flags-concerns-about-gerons-anemia-treatment-2024-03-12/
My concern is, the FDA was somehow pressured by big pharma to come out with this scathing report. I mean how in the world could the ADCOM have such a strongly opposite opinion on GERNs drug Imetelstat than the FDA had ? Bottom line is, if in fact the FDA was swayed by big pharma to write the scathing report just two days before the ADCOM meeting, then why isn't it possible that the FDA will continue to be swayed by big pharma, and NOT give GERNs drug approval on June 16 ?
SS- PERI, good points about the cash
I will look further.
SS- PERI
Yes it appears cheap. However PEs expand when things are going well, and contract when things are going bad. In fact, during periods of strong growth, there's no way to know how much higher the PE will go. SMCI sold for a 8-10 PE for years, and now with AI, sells for a 25-30 PE. So PEs can expand or contract by multiples, and during the height of the up/down growth cycles, it's especially hard to know how to value. PERI is cheap right now compared to the past, but who knows what PE it will now receive. For me, I don't see any growth story in tact for PERI right now, and therefore, I could see where a 7-8 PE going forward might be all it gets. I like a story like IART better, as they've been demolished, are selling at less than half their normal PE, and could be a comeback growth story yet, where the PE expands again.
Back in IART @ $29.10
Sold at $31.90, so back in cheaper after the delayed report announcement. I can't see this company being worth much less than this. I mean the news would have to be really bad to send the stock much lower !
Updated portfolio
GERN 70000 shares
IART 4700 sh
Cash 1441
Buy IART @ $29.10
Buy 4700 IART @ $29.10 = $136,770
Sell ELTK @ $10.76
Sell 12700 ELTK @$10.76 = $136,652
abh- FOR
Nice dd !
R59- SOXS
No, I changed my tune after the hit I took in 2023, that I can't time it. I thought I could, but just lucky in 2022.
Wadegarret portfolio- up 35% YTD/up 254% since Jan 22
R59- FOR
My feeling is, mortgage rates are going up. Inflation is stubborn again, as Powell suggested this week that the goal of getting to 2% is far away. I think the rally in home builders has seen it's day, and the almost 10% drop in FOR, despite strong earnings, suggests future demand will wane with rates staying as high, or going higher.
R59- ADFJF-
What is your sell target ? thanks
DRCT from $3 to $32 to $7 in 5 months
Unreal ! Next step ? Back to $3 by August.
Updated portfolio
ELTK 12700 shares
GERN 70000 shares
cash $1559
Sell IART/Buy ELTK
Sell 4300 IART @ $31.90 = $137.170
Buy 12,700 ELTK @ $10.77 = $136.779
Cash $391
Why does CMG deserve a 44 PE going forward, and
a PEG ratio of 2 to 1. Generally speaking a 2 to 1 PE ratio suggests a rich valuation. I mean SMCI and NVDA have closer to a 1 PEG ratio. However it does appear food stocks have higher PEG ratios than tech companies.
R59- IART($32)
Re, what do you think of this one ? Seems like a good risk/reward into earnings next week, as the company said their Boston Factory should be back on line this May or June, and gave guidance of $3.19 for 2024 and $3.60 for 2025. The stock has gotten demolished for almost 3 years now, and there are major concerns that the closing of their Boston Factory for the last year or so(due to recalls from 2018-2023), will have caused them to lose market share for their medical device product made there. However the recall has overall not yielded many problems. My feeling is, they wouldn't be opening up the factory if they thought they lost that much demand for the product. Using the guidance given, the stock is selling for less than a 9 PE going forward, in an industry that demands 25 PE or higher for the average medical device manufacturer.
GERN $3.75 acting nicely-
I believe GERN is one of the best plays out there. That is, after the ADCOM recommended approval of Imetelstat on March 14, with a 12-2 vote, chance of FDA approval is 97% according to JAMA studies. I believe GERN will be over $6 if FDA approves on June 16. As I've posted many times, after crunching the numbers, I feel GERN will post $.60+ fully taxed and diluted on $1B in revenues, which I believe will happen by 2028. GERN estimates $2B+/year by 2030. This estimate doesn't include the use of Imetelstat for Myelofibrosis, which is in phase 3 studies by GERN. So huge potential for GERN IMO
Hweb- MAMO
Looks like they reported around $.25 for fiscal 2023. How much do you think they might post in fiscal 2024 ?
Hweb- IART
The company says, assuming the Boston Factory re opens this May/June, that they will post $3.19 this year and $3.60 in 2025. PE on every medical device manufacturer is 20+ going forward, but with IART at $31.90, is less than a 9 PE going forward. One other negative is, 29% of their revenues come from outside the US, and currency exchange is expected to negatively affect earnings according to an article I read. Even so, with Q1 coming out April 25, seems like this one is a good risk/reward buying at $31.90 today. What do you think ?
IART($32.08)- Conflicted on this one
Bought back shares in Wadegarret this morning $.30 cheaper. Seems there is resistance at $32.
Updated portfolio
GERN 70000 shares
IART 4300 shares
Cash $1168
Buy IART @ $32.04
Buy 4300 IART @ $32.04 = $137,772