waiting for the financials to show the benefits of these contract announcements

have already sold portions of my position to make a lot so now letting the rest ride whatever wave will happen

PLUG has done everything right as far as markets or its products - read Crossing the chasm and The Gorilla Game for confirmation.

we explicitly decided not to enter the heavy mobile market (buses, trucks trains ships etc) by ourselves (we do have JV s of course where the expertise in those vehicles exists but are using a generic fuel cell “motor” not custom ones like Ballard has). As Ballard are finding out even promises of 500-1000 units dont make the product line profitable.

After securing the Material handling market the generation of hydrogen to supply those customers is a great adjacent pin. Our electrolyzers are second to none. Thats why you see them being used in projects around the world - especially in Europe. They may not be the cheapest but they work and PLUG knows what is needed to make a project successful.

Material Handling GenDrives and electrolysers make 20-30% gross margins so are pretty good businesses. Hopefully the new factories mean that large stationary fuel cells will also be when they roll out in any volume.

By choosing partners for things like the aircraft industry and last mile delivery we share the risks and costs involved.

If only Sanjay hadnt been so confident in the date to get production plants up and running we wouldn't be in this mess. Permitting delays hit all our sites - and will do in the future until the govt sorts this out (see Senator Manchkin). New York is now 2 years late had it been on time we would be selling to third parties 50% of the hydrogen we produce for nice hefty margins.

but if the RS goes through without the REDUCTION in A/S count they could issue 1.44BN shares.

RS does not affect the Authorized count unless specifically stated - which is what NKLA are doing.

Given they arent being forced to R/S from a share availability point of view they just want their SP to be over $5

IMHO they wont do a RS as the next quarter results and forecasts should be sufficient to get the SP back to around $3 and hen over $5 after Q2 results


But they have to go to the annual meeting to ask just incase they do. it is extremely expensive to do it at another time of year.

I will vote for allowing he board if they decide they need it to do it.
by reducing the authorized count it is another indication they are NOT doing this to be able to issue gazzillions of shares but to price the shares so they are listed and available to investment firms
trying to recall company who did this successfully a few years ago.

wish they didnt have the Milton issues to put up with and could focus on execution and getting supply chain up to a suitable volume per month.

they aren’t doing it for cash - not being forced on them by any fully converted calculations like you see in pink sheets.

this (if they do it) is purely for maintaining NASDAQ compliance and visibility with more firms who have artificial restrictions on < $5 or <$10 stocks

pretty sure the DOE have already approved it but it has to go to Congress (the OMB in particular) for approval, that is what we are waiting for.
At that point they start drawing up the detailed loan paperwork and fixing the numbers.

I can imagine the OMB is asking the DOE - why not 6 separate loans not one big one…

check SEC filings of th eprospectus.

The R/S is a formality as they can only get approval at shareholder meetings so best to use the annual one.

it states its purpose is to regain NASDAQ compliance if necessary and to make shares more visible to institutions

It does not compel the board to reverse split

Assuming deliveries and returns of BEV 2.0 go according to plan with no new issues the SP may well recover enough to minimise the chance of the R/S

sure if these all happen they will have to get interest free cash via the ATM.
I have my lottery ticket and if I win can offer Andy a few hundred million at lower %age than DOE..

by Jan 2026 I would expect PLUGs SP to rise more %age wise than Nikola.

Nikola is in 2 product markets and one geography. PLUG in what 8 product markets and global presence? Will depend on how much dilution is needed to keep paying their running costs before profitability.

well it would give them a better chance of being successful and the market would like it reflecting in a better SP.

But the current team may make it, their chances reflected in current SP.

Had it not been for the 2 year delay in NY and 12 months in Georgia (plus 6 more for he final testing set up) they wouldn’t be in he cash strapped position they are now. These were external delays but should have been in their plans (Sanjay too overconfident). We might them be saying we have a wonderful C Suite...

Where is the board of directors though they should be addressing this. Is George too weak or too much the status quo guy?

I agree, except Andy needs to be there just not as CEO - he is the visionary but hasn't had the team to deliver a realistic plan to get there and stand up to Andy to tell him it would be 24 months late.

A proper CFO would help compensate for weakness in other positions along with a COO from energy market.

They need executives experienced in an energy company not a fork lift parts supplier as you always like o refer to them as.

Surprised Andy isnt moving back to Texas where he came from. Having their headquarters there would be much better.

is this related to PLUG?
not really news either as passenger cars will be a 2028 thing currently suffering from the rip off prices for gray hydrogen…. need more supply

Yes I think their current 2024 forecast is 250-300 but expect that to be increased if they get the supply chain fixed.
My suggestion of 1000 was without thinking multi shift but 800 would be great - hitting near 200 in Q4 would be a great year.
Not sure what the lead time to increase the supply chain capacity is but Nikola have a great team in place to be managing that and I am sure it is th enumber 1 issue they consider daily.
Very impressed with the management team now. If BEVs can all be returned in Q2 and sell the 100 or so in inventory my $1 calls for January will be worth a lot!


I miss Bears fly overs though - may reach out to him. to see if he can do like one a month…

quantamscape (QS) batteries heading for production quantities by end of they year. They are tied to Volkswagen and may supply others. They are only new tech battery I know anywhere near production for real world use

their forecast for Q1 was same as last year Q4 30-35 FCEV. so they exceeded forecast. Supply chain is the limiting factor - hydrogen tanks for the trucks and the battery packs. Obviously they exceeded forecast by airfreighting but it also indicates there may be better supply. Earnings call should add color to that and any update to the year forecast. AFAIK they can make well over 1000 if they had the parts. orders are not an issue

amazing response to a late filing - up over 50%

glad I kept 50% after the last spike

on this we agree!

Sanjays strategy badly played out so he was demoted (lost the control of H2 production) after he under estimated the permitting and other pre-construction tasks leading to 6-12 month delay on Georgia, Texas and NY before the cash crunch.

he still runs the Electrolyser manufacturing business which involves supplying many non-PLUG projects and our JVs which Ole was better qualified to do

Part of PLUGs ROI formula was to not pay APD or LIN $10+ /kg for gray hydrogen but make green/blue for $5

But once that is covered (OLIN may provide their daily needs) it does get harder to justify.

Big question for the board. If you win the Powerball would you approach Andy to finance NY Stamp and lease it back - or something similar?

great to see them publishing these number just like real vehicle manufacturers.
should have a good reaction - higher than forecast and confirmation that BEV 2.0 is happening.
lets get back above 1 and stay there this time. Close above $1.50 in the next few days should create a support level above $1.

I think it would help if they published quarterly production numbers in the days after quarter end like the automobile manufacturers do.
It would indicate they consider them selves as mainstream manufacturer not a start up any more.
Until a sequence of quarterlies indicate margin improvements allowing analysts to see the breakeven coming up they will keep low, very similar to PLUG but a much simpler model to look at. They need supply chain issues to be sorted out as they could be making at lest one FCEV a day but seems they are restrained to the 40-50/qtr by the hydrogen tank and battery suppliers.

the new notes were “Announced” a week or more ago though. They may have now been issued but that shouldn't affect the SP today.
it has been generally a good day for hydrogen stocks and we know PLUG seems to have the highest beta amongst them. more social media posts from Euorpe and India may be getting shorts worried that there will be enough business outside the USA to compensate.
They got out of paying an end of march interest on the old notes though

they have other more expensive options to fund the H2 plants if the DOE loan falters.
In fact I think they may have to do something over the summer like sell part of Georgia or JV for the Texas plant.
If only there was abundant H2 availability then many fuel cell applications would have shipped in Q3-Q1 from inventory helping the cash balances.

many thanks for posting this, on top of last weeks news certainly gives impetus to the stock price.
Now to work out the right level to start reducing my holdings

Anyone know why the sudden price increase.. breaking above $1 is significant for a 2 day double.
They didnt do a reverse split did they?
I guess it could just be delayed response to last weeks news I can now raise my stop loss

not true
many deposits of natural hydorgen are being found because they are starting to lok for them, no one was looking for hydrogen when they were exploring for nat gas oil or coal.

it is “dirty” and I haven't seen anyone estimate the cost of extraction to clean, compress and liquify since the deposits wll not be near any demand application it has to be transported.

suspect 2028 may be for the first available and that wont be in US or Europe.

they probably are.
they can consider just refueling - PLUG delivers liquid hydorgen to the facility which stores and dispenses like a distribution center but its trucks at 700 bar not forklifts
to have a 1MW electrolyser installed would be the next step up with a lot more balance of plant required for the water and electric feed.

Amazon seem to be considering it so fleets could be asking questions at least

the stationary applications (Data centers direct power or standby, EV charging, peaker plants etc don't need to have production on site they will have to have LH2 tanks to store H2 to use and that can be filled from tankers.
I suspect the standby systems may not have electrolysers but others in the 2MW + size using H2 constantly will have on site generation and storage

given the current supply constraints of hydrogen it would certainly be in my sales pitch.

If only New York was online (it has 18 months once they restart with DOE Loan) things would be better for the country not just PLUG.

those trucks arent inventory they are customer trucks returned in the recall. They have a battery supplier (yes who is slow in delivering the number required)

so who is this guy? May be you and I should do a video or two

2 year old announcement - is it live now? Are you sure the Canada plant makes MFCF systems , I thought it was for SOEC

would be nice if they gave us an update on this project (and the many other deals supposedly underway) in their earnings reports.

hope this allows them to get a smaller cheaper car in the pipeline, or switch to solid state batteries ahead of TSLA

It will be interesting to see how the new generation of small reactors get accepted by the public.
Come 2030 you could see a small reactor and SOEC electrolyser generating Hydrogen at a major truck stop on interstate highways. not having to transport hydrogen brings its costs down significantly along with this being one of the cheapest ways to produce.
Even using “hubs” dotted around the country and trucking the HYLA stations is one part of the equation as hydrogen takes off for transportation everywhere.

Amidst all the hoopla about NuRide. no one seems to have posted the $175,000 that Steve Burns settled for.
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/lr-25954

Will be interesting to watch what happens to the IP he bought given he hasnt had to pay much for his untruths.

200 kW seems to be the sweet spot for Class 8 trucks and the likes (waste management trucks, excavators etc.) the 150 kW in a Progen engine is obviously being used in Last mile delivery, buses and smaller vehicles.

Assuming PLUG are close to having 200+ kW they will need to decide so they integrate into a drive train/engine compartment like Bosch/Nikola and Hyzon or keep it separate and supply the electricity indirectly. Ballard have the widest range of high power solutions for buses, trains, ships and I have a feeling that is the sort of market Plug would like to address next, may be in tandem with SK and BAE Systems where buses are already being powered.

However you have to ask how much it will cost to prepare and launch any new product given the current financial situation. Cash should be available by the end of 2025, assuming the DOE loan starts supplying some funds in Q3 this year.. future opportunities will slip in line with that

My issue with blue hydrogen is that it is coming from a hydrocarbon fuel source through Steam methane reforming or SOEC. So they shouldn't be getting incentives

I would prefer my incentives to be towards electrolysis as the core technology to encourage scaling of the eco system to reduce costs. In 2024 it will be hard to get true green hydrogen through electrolysis as the grid isn't connecting the wind and solar farms at a fast enough rate. As time goes by though you will see electrolysis plants either directly connected to these farms or buying through the state power companies the output from them.

The hold up is in the permitting and the connection process. Manchin is trying to break that log jam.

I also think the hydro electric industry are very lazy in adding turbine capacity - modern turbines would increase output significantly without building more dams.

Been waiting for some indication that our R&D is delivering. currently everything is based on the 150 kW fuel cell… just line them up in parallel to get more power.
if they have a bigger power same size cell then introducing it into the ProGen engine for vans/trucks and stationary power solutions would be “easy”.

I wonder if any analyst has spotted this for Q1 earnings call questions….

Mind you with current expense controls I don't expect to see anything come out of the lab this year unless paid for by a trial customer

almost certainly to pay his tax bill (from other business not necessarily PLTR)

The purpose of a prospectus is so that the selling shareholder (as you state one of the original financiers in the SPAC back in 2020) will sell to a single entity ( may be more than one I guess).
This ensures the share do not immediately hit the market.
I think the amendment reference is for the legal opinion added at the end , the rest dates back to 2023.

the news about the MOU is 13 months old. but it seems they are now in a position to talk about it with clients. Been wondering where this had got to as IMHO this is the best short term (12 months) channel for new orders and shipments.

I’m not sure if Nikola includes 1,000,000 miles of hydrogen in the price of the truck. That was the original business plan from Trevor Milton but may well have been changed.
I suspect that some hydrogen is included so current fill ups may not be visible as revenue, unless we are filling up Hyundai or other FCEV trucks.
All will be revealed in the Q1 numbers though.

It was only 2 years ago - maybe only 18 months. The Microsoft project at Albany proved that xMW of fuel cells could run for 48 hours straight supplying the right power needed for data centers. Caterpillar with Ballard have completed the same test as part of a DOE grant with Microsoft.
The plan as laid out then was for a gen 2 system to be installed at a test site for Microsoft AFAIK that was done last year (3MW I think), a prototype (1MW) was delivered to another Datacenter customer though so at least one stationary system is in operation. Similarly the EV charging system has at least one early customer installation.

The next generation of large stationary systems with better integration of components and packaging was scheduled for this year and would involve an installation at a Microsoft DC of their choosing and hopefully multiple EV charging locations. If successful this would then start the commercial discussions about pricing and roll out (I suspect with at least one other but more likely two other companies. - Bloom and Caterpillar/Ballad) so roll out would be 2026 at the earliest. Until there is is sufficient guaranteed hydrogen supply they aren't going to do many and the costs of these systems needs to come down before they make commercial sense compared with Diesel. or Nat gas systems.

As with so many of the “Applications” as PLUG likes to call them scale will matter, only material handling with the thousands a year of fuel cells have shown to be able to be priced competitively.

The strategy set out 3 years ago focussed on producing the H2 that the country needs now so that when the applications are commercially viable there is the H2 to meet demand. With the production plants now 24 months behind the original timeline we have seen even material handling sites pushed back due to uncertain H2 supply. (not just from PLUG)

The govt needs to urgently get H2 production up and running hence the DOE loan for PLUG.