Thanks - that's my perspective as well. After all the on the ground dd I did on CCME and to have it still be a fraud...I'm taking a wait and see perspective, especially when there's so much smoke around this one.

V80alue - are you a fan of GURE?

I came across TPCS in a value scan and also found it on swingtrade. A lot looks really positive, but in doing some initial poking around I came across this thread talking some potential concerns regarding one of their board members.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_T/threadview?m=te&bn=59832&tid=37&mid=37&tof=18&frt=2#37

I don't see it mentioned on ihub but I'd appreciate it if anyone who has done some dd on this could share their thoughts.

Note: I am mostly looking for more info about the corporate history & transactions from Standard Automotive Corporation to Ranor to TPCS.

You're right of course, but the company could have prevented this sort of thing with better communication. Hopefully we will see this with new IR/PR. It's ridiculous that Jacky would even have the distraction of responding to the inquiries he has because of investor frustration with Lena. A lot of this is the space - being tarred with the same brush.

Great analysis Shermadog.

Sorry! 10 minutes is all I could wait since I saw the comment on wctbill's blog LOL! Sorry if I stole your thunder. Excellent detailed work.

forzagrifo - nice chart of the Shanghai Bus Companies Parent-Subsid Structure!

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/407449-forzagrifo/143544-ccme-shanghai-bus-companies-parent-subsid-structure

Not to mention with a dual listing they would probably do it with a bulge bracket i-bank that would defend the stock
a) with their coverage,
b) not so politely insist the short-sellers leave their platform and
c) enlist the help of their bb i-bank "friends"

You can tell the future Marty! Your last imaginary PR has already come true. Sort of.

When my researcher has called various regional sales offices in the last few days she now consistently gets the correct number of buses and that they can't release specific information until a contract is signed. Any investor related questions are redirected to HQ. I won't tell you what she used to hear from one of them.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59228389

Rebuttal to Chimin's latest here: http://ccme-info.xanga.com/

"What I cannot understand, however, is how this B2C website is connected to CCME's core business of operating mobile television advertising networks on passenger buses travelling on highways in the People's Republic of China. According to CCME's financial statements, that core business is absolutely on fire, why are they venturing into something like SWITOW? It just does not pass the smell test."

I tried to post this comment but for some reason kept triggering a spam filter.


How is SWITOW related to the Bus Advertising business?

1) A way to leverage/upsell ridership of 1.2B annually. I guess you've never heard of SkyMall?

2) Deepen relationships with advertisers while differentiating yourself from other platforms.

3) Increasing returns for shareholders by investing just a small portion of their serious cashflow in a complementary business (rather than acquiring money-losing and low margin business like FMCN and others have done)

Not sure what's wrong with your sniffer - you might want to get it checked out.

Terrific comment from our own Value1008 Timothy

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10997016/1/suspicious-timing-of-china-mediaexpress-slam.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA


Does Carson Block of MWR have NO SHAME WHATSOEVER? His pretentious "report" is FILLED with glaring mistakes in his web-research and devilish deceit with his misleading statements and innuendo, as has been already documented in less than 20 hours by numerous researchers at various websites, especially by those Chinese speakers who have proven that Block is utterly inept in doing any internet research on CCME's subsidiary in China.

He is the real "FRAUD" here, with a massive CONFLICT OF INTEREST in admitting that he is likely shortselling this stock before publishing his trash and thereby reaping huge financial gains from his hack journalism (it's certainly not honest, objective "research").

Block dares to launch his pack of lies and wrongful omissions during a time when Chinese business is shut down for holidays, like a Pearl Harbor sneak attack, and then gallingly insinuates in his email to you that he is "puzzled that CCME's response to being accused of defrauding shareholders is to accuse Muddy Waters, LLC of intruding on management's holiday."

CCME was saying NOTHING OF THE SORT. CCME was instead suggesting that it is extremely difficult for board directors and mgmt to respond effectively when they are out of their offices with their families.

How dare Carson Block say these things, and imply in his next sentence that he is the honest one and they are "dishonest." I have gleaned from the fast-response d.d. by fellow shareholders a LONG LIST of Block's lies, mistakes and omissions.

He is welcome to contact me at the InvestorsHub CCME board by my ID there "Value1008."

In any case, whereas there might have been some validity to his criticism of RINO, there are no merits whatsoever to his sneaky, deceitful ambush of CCME.

Block clearly has big, selfishly greedy ambitions to be a "star research analyst" for the shadowy groups of shortselling hedge funds (which are decimating shareholders' wealth with their sordid games) --but he picked the wrong stock this time. He will have his self-aggrandizing "reputation" ruined. Of this one can be sure.

This man Block is an enemy of decent society and part of the cancer that has afflicted our capital markets.

The SEC has been alerted to his dirty tricks.

Game is over, Block, with your self-serving lies.
You may not have any shame, but, as a friend's bumperstick reads:
"Ignorance of the law of karma is no excuse."

For the sake of your eternal soul, i urge you to reflect deeply on your situation...

Gunnar - I had the same problem with temperamental links. This link worked though.

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/2011_CCME_BusInfo_ByCity.zip

Clicking the link in the PDF worked for me as well.

Traderfan posted the direct link
http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/CCME_MW_020311.pdf

you need to keep refreshing if you get an error b/c of the traffic the MW site is getting.

Sorry to be technical but I just looked at the MW html code and there doesn't appear to be any report to download. It just opens a new blank window. It's been awhile since my coding days though, but I don't see any way to get to the report in the code.


<script language="Javascript">
function check_agree (form) {
if (form.agree.checked) {
void(window.open("","_blank",""));
}
else { alert("Sorry, you must confirm that you agree to our terms of service before you can download this report."); }
}

LOL I suggested that Jacky add something about the SAIC to the FAQ this morning!

CCME posted a very nice new FAQ

http://www.ccme.tv/eng/ir/faqs.php

I read it here.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_C/threadview?m=te&bn=101061&tid=46111&mid=46111&tof=7&frt=2#46111

Last time I posted FMCN's margins on YMB tradeontrends quickly back-tracked and basically said FMCN was a fraud too. LOL what will shorts revert to next? You can see why heehaw posts nonsense all the time.

Thanks Xiphoid!

[if anyone has trouble clicking on those links you might need to take the ending html tag "" off].

Here are 3 other nice Chinese media articles that Andrew conveniently couldn't locate - maybe because he doesn't speak the language, hmmmm?

http://www.eeo.com.cn/wangshang/mgc/2010/04/01/166182.shtml
August 2009 terrific interview of Jacky. This article discusses CCME's operating numbers, the rationale for the CV Starr investment, the name confusion with FMCN, that there are a few regional competitors, etc

http://www.fj.xinhuanet.com/dszx/2006-01/10/content_6009620.htm
Xinhau news agency article discussing CCME and FMCN.

http://www.witpark.com/html/news/201003/7000.shtml
Brief profile of Cheng Zheng and highlights of CCME early on

I can confirm wctbills is for real also - just chatted with him and he said Jacky's already working through a response. Potentially, the Citron piece could have been worse had wctbills hadn't taken time over the weekend to video. We owe him a lot.

Anyway, I haven't been able to check the whole lot of messages here yet today, but with all the DD that's been done by the people here, has someone already compiled a point by point response? Not that Jacky will need it, but it might be worth having for our own purposes/posting to Yahoo.

For instance, on the articles mentioning CCME I think it would be good to list not just business/finance articles but local ones that show CCME alongside of FMCN, etc.

Forgzagrifo - my China researcher isn't online, can you search any of these links like this one?
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/7a59ad51ad02de80d4d84011.html

It seems like their major argument is that they can't find the company, but I think they're searching for the wrong company name.

1. CCME is often referred to as "High speed channel"

2. If that doesn't work, their SARFT license is listed as (not sure if they will post correctly here): ??????????

Timothy - I thought I'd head off any potential confusion over the 67 Guangzhou airport buses.

There are actually two bus operators for the Guangzhou airport - together they total 133 buses. I asked wctbills to clarify that he is only talking about one of the two, but he hasn't yet for some reason.

Incidentally, I have "explicitly made this kind of confirmation" for every CCME airport contract. I've got names, numbers and websites as well as confirmed the CCME contract, number of buses and passenger volume. Most wouldn't comment on the particulars of their contract with CCME.

Unfortunately, the bus operators don't post this information on their websites so you'd have to call and ask the right kinds of questions in Chinese to get them to tell you this info. I haven't posted the operator's contact information because I wouldn't want a hoard of short-sellers calling and bugging them - but their contact info is easy enough to find.

SWITOW regarding number of catalogs

I had my China researcher clear up my question about the "100,000" catalogs from an earlier post.

"I just talk to a Switow staff, and he said they will publish/deliver 3 million Switow e-booklets in year 2011.

And clients [advertisers] can choose which area's Switow e-booklet they want their products been displayed."

wctbills doesn't post here that frequently - mostly on YMB. If I see him online I will point out your msg to him. While he can't PM you back (no premium ihub account) you can send him a PM and maybe include an email address.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=54255493

I've actually got a question for you - if you don't mind PM'ing me your email address.

As Northern suggested, Shi might be more sensitive to local pressure than from the US. In my DD I found a few journalists who had written stories on Chuming. Also, I seem to recall some articles that picked up some of the fraud allegations. Perhaps these journalists would be interested in the story?

Marty,

I'm not sure if I get your question, but I'll point out a few things:

1. The Nielsen data is dated. If you look at CCME's 9/7 investor day presentation slide labeled #14 you'll see their airport CPM is 52.4 and their inter-city CPM is 3.5. While at about 15x this doesn't completely bridge the gap, it is much closer.

2. FMCN isn't in the inter-city bus biz. The FMCN column heading on slide 29 is "City TV CPM". That's apples and oranges with CCME.


If you don't already have v80alue's economic model you might ask for it.

Thanks and good luck to you as well - I couldn't think of why else they wouldn't have announced the numbers and SEC update. Of course, maybe the numbers are lower than they expected, but it's just a matter of time IMO. You can't drill 60 wells and not have something positive happen.


Regarding CCME, thanks. I heard back from my researcher on the 100k catalog number but it's not quite clear to me yet so I haven't posted an update. Will post when it's cleared up.

Runcoach - do you think they're trying to hold it down intentionally until the Dart shares are resolved?

Perhaps this is why they haven't announced updated production numbers?

I had a person do it - but perhaps she used an electronic tool for the rough translation and then cleaned it up. I'll let everyone know what she says about the 100,000.

It's a good catch from Dan. I've asked my researcher about following up for more info. Could be a typo. Initially she had recorded 200 billion viewership - LOL

FYI here is some information my China research compiled about Switow from various sources.

1. CCME Ad in Tudou: http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/8qliy8seZUI/
a. CCME will publish 100,000 Switow "e shopping booklets " every year.
b. The shopping booklets will be divided into 3 types: Airport Buses booklets; Tourist Buses booklets; Long Distance Buses booklets.
c. The potential "e shopping booklet" readership will be 2 billion


2. Asia Pacific Economic Times: http://ytbao.com.cn/newsdetail.jsp?type_id=8&board_id=36&news_id=6853
a. There will be 50 brands (manufacturers) products selling on Switow. Right now there are 12 brands on Switow: Tata, Belle, Skyworth, Toshiba, Canon, Nike, Apple, Sony, Aigo, Philips, Supor, Adidas.
b. In the coming 3 years, CCME will build 500 "experience stores " at the capital cities in China. The first store will be located in Fuzhou this June.
c. Author is Asia Pacific Economic Times journalist Mr. Li Xueyi


3. Switow Site Video: http://video.baidu.com/t?di=284628644_284628644&pos=0&word=%CB%E6e%CC%D4
a. Switow's "e shopping booklet" will be distributed via 6 venues: Airport, Bank VIP, high End Club, High-speed Railway, Car Dealer 4s store, Express Buses
b. Switow is a 24 hours available shopping channel
c. Switow shopping news will be deliver to the register cell phone users
d. Switow experience stores also will be located in the High End Residential area
e. There are 50,000 TV's on the buses and there are 4,000 Express Bus Routes
f. Manufacturers only need to pay the Switow Booklets print cost to list their products in the Switow booklets
g. Lowest price guaranteed
h. Switow is CCME 's Wholly-owned subsidiaries
i. Switow is not only a dealer but also brand promoter
j. Shopping procedure:
. Manufactures can publish products, promotion and shopping location;
. consumers can call Switow hot line to order products or service.
. Switow forward the order to the manufactures and follow up with delivery.
k. CME only mentioned that the High Speed Railway version will be coming. CCME/Switow didn't have more specific information about which city's High Speed Railway or how many High Speed Railway will be.

4. Switow Site: http://www.switow.com/helpcenter/manager.do?method=getArticle&userId=0000&helpinfoid=7

They are or are planning on running a promotion for people to exchange their old products for new one. People must bring their original product and receipt (my note: I guess to the future experience store?). They get 10% of their original purchase price towards the new product. Products available are Lap Top, Ipad, Flat screen TV.

See Maj's post: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57956146

I've seen the credit report, but only because of my friendly neighborhood Maj who lives down the street :)

As Maj said, the credit report is questionable because those agencies rely on the SAIC filings (which we know aren't a match with CCME's SEC filings).

Another thing to be careful of...when using various China agencies/individuals to find scams, don't get scammed in the process! Some of these agencies will give you bad data, either intentionally because they can save money, or the people giving them data are giving them the wrong data. Talk about a circular mess. That's why the auditors need to do their stupid job and independently check the SAT files to begin with.

Pedro,

Someone posted this link a little while ago that indicates a ramp-up in this new venture.

http://company.zhaopin.com/P2/CC1801/9531/CC180195313.htm


I had my researcher in China translate it for me. Note a few paragraphs down the part in bold about the "Shopping Union Media." Further down is a listing of open positions - they can't be all related to the new venture, but it's a nice indicator - esp the positions open in Fuzhou. I think we all need a personal "Beauty care therapist"



Fu Jian Fen Zhong Media Co.,Ltd
Industry: Advertising/exhibition/ PR/Marketing and brand promotion/Meida/ publish/movie/culture/ art
Company type: joint-stock enterprise
Company size: 100- 499 staffs

Company introduction:
China Media Express is a Media company specialized in TV advertising in the inter city buses. It is the only bus TV media been designated by Ministry of the Transport of the People Republic of China. The advertising covers Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Fujian, Chengdu etc. 22 cities’ express buses. China Media Express have this creative format which can compulsory pass the information to passengers. China Media Express can reach 1.3 billion people. Clients recognize China Media Express as the most integrity TV media in China.

Till now, China Media Express successfully offered advertising service to brands as China Mobile, Bank of China, Pepsi, Siemens. More and more famous brand choose China Media Express as their brand promotion media. These shows China Media Express have great strength to develop in the Media filed.

Fujian Su Lian Gou Media CO.,Ltd / Fujian Express Shopping Union Media CO.,Ltd: Registration Capital: 50 million RMB. Based on use China Media ‘s resource, Fujian Express Shopping Union will become a well know brand products’ sales channel. Consumers can purchase products with standard price and experience directly buy from the manufacturers.

China Media Express think talented staffs are the strange for company to compete and develop in the market. We respect individual ability and creative ideas. We offer a inspiring and passionate working environment. We will view staffs as the most important treasure for the company. We concern about our employees’ work and life. We focus on employees developing and training, we offer stable and competitive salary. We also have the first class working environment and competitive salary in this field. Employees enjoy right to choose your working location among the 22 cities. We invite talented and creative people to join our team.

Needed Material for interview:
1. CV
2. Education Certificate. ID, and other certificate’s original version and copy
3. Students please take your introduction letter and student certificate.
4. Students who going to graduate soon, please show your recommendation letter
5. a colorful 1 inch photo

Working schedule:
1. 7 hours per day, 5 days per week, special position excepted
2. Holidays and vacation according to the national standard.

Company add: 22floor, Wuyi centre, East street No. 33, Gulou District, Fuzhou
Recruiting cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan,Chengdu, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Nanning and more.

Beijing open position:
Administration staff
Technicians
Developing staff
Vice manager of sales
Sales
Sales manager
Enterprise planning
Marketing planning
Senior sectary

Fuzhou Open position:
Technician
Trainers
Advertising sales
Enterprise planning
Beauty care therapist
Accountant
Quality monitoring
Text editor for movie
Budgeting
Client manger
Business manager
Artist for web design
Sales chief director
Sales
Events planning director
HR manager
Merchant manager
Publish department manager
Space designer
Movie editing
Enterprise planning chief director
Ordering checking staff
Achievement evaluator
Software designer
Designer
Assistant
Engineering manager
Purchase and storage manage staff
Orders deliver staff
Text editing
Trainers
Design sketch drawing department manager
Design sketch drawing artist
Design department manager
Chief designer
Project supervision
Web service
Graphic designing
Photographer
Chief manager assistant
Factory manager
Soft packing manager
Paint team manager
Wood work manager
Craft work manager


The page goes on to describe the other other locations with open positions, similar to Beijing.

I hope I don't come across as too critical - I don't mean to be. Unfortunately, I will always error on the side of being skeptical.

I agree this is a compelling value, v80alue - that's why I loaded up at $1.80 :)

Value,

Your logic of estimating revenues based the number of hogs bought from the mother company is supported by looking at Q3/Q4 2009. As you can see the bulk of hogs purchased fell in Q3 versus Q4 for 2010.

2009
Q1: 141,852
Q2: 135,354
Q3: 397,970
Q4: 124,824

However, I still am cautious about the explanation given - that hogs were in short supply. If this is true, then we might not be able to count on being able to get the full 384,511 hogs and Q4 revenues might be curtailed (although if everything goes well, Q4 could be a blowout). I would prefer to keep my estimate for Q4 to be on the conservative side - around $.25 eps. However, as Northern has said, this is still a deep value at these prices.

Even though the working capital per share continues to go up, I'll be continuing to watch the increase in AR. I know they are extending credit and their distribution channel should be good for it. But if you take all the various receivables together, the DSO has increased quite a bit and AR >120 days has increased.

HOGS does both - slaughtering and branded products in stores. As I recall they had some branded stores of their own but seemed to be moving more towards the supermarket distribution model. I was also surprised to see that HOGS shot up so much after they gave guidance that indicated low eps growth. I attribute it to the seemingly rare CGS stock that can achieve a proper PE.

So far I don't have anything major to report. Their licenses have checked out as have their reputation, competitive position, suppliers, scale of operations, etc. I'm still checking into a few areas so as to silence any critics. I hope to be done soon.

HOGS buys them from hog farmers before processing and then selling to the public (just like ENHD).

OINK raises breeder hogs and meat hogs and sells them to processors and other hog farmers.

I don't get the shortage of live hogs myself. They had almost $9M in inventory at the end of the quarter.

From their 09 10k
In order to ensure a consistent supply of fresh pork to our customers, we have made agreements with approximately 6,000 pig farms in the Dalian, to supplement our usual supply of live pigs. These pig farms agreed to supply us approximately 650,000 pigs in 2009. Our suppliers have an aggregate capacity to supply us with approximately 1,100 pigs per day.

Note: Not sure how 1,100 pigs per day equates to 650k for the year.

One thing that I think has not been summarized or discussed is the increase in ad utilization and the direct sales method in the latest quarter.

The PR mentions a positive year-over-year comparison, but I thought I heard a few references on the call to a higher quarter over quarter comparison. Can anyone else confirm/deny?

Sorry, I had misunderstood Forzagrifo's post on CGS (thanks for the PM clarifying Forzagrifo).

Northern - thanks for replying. That's all great stuff, similar to what I have seen in ENHD's filings. The bit about Singapore is new to me though - did I miss it somewhere?

Value - I think you're right that being a hog farmer is pretty risky. A friend had a small scale hog farm during the blue ear pig disease and he told me that while all the farmers got slaughtered (pun intended) the hog processors managed ok. However, while OINK is a hog farmer, I'm almost positive that HOGS is a processor like ENHD.