Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Agree with what you said, but cannot fully make up my mind regarding Friday's trading. What is sure: many sold in panic. However, if the drive down was related to the fact that the 9 to 6 recommendation of the WHO council leaked and many wanted out or shorted or if it was accumulation? If heavy shorting/exiting took place beacause of the leak and then Dr. Tedros overruled the reco, we might never know. Monday will be interesting though!!! I am glad I didn't sell and even bought some more.
Also: we are trending on Yahoo (nr. 3 stock as I write) and also on other platforms SIGA is getting new followers. Would be nice to have 100mio share day with a 100% gain.
GLTA!!
Agree fully. And I am starting to believe, that they don't want to hand out TPOXX which is their final "weapon" against many diseaes. So they go for vaccines as much as they can and keep TPOXX for special cases. That's also why they are not moving with getting approval for MPox quickly. Look at it: EU approved, UK approved, Japan started testing a while ago. Prescribing it to dozens of people and collecting Data also in the US (in the beginning 120 pages per patient, not 50). Shouldn't this be enough to come to conclusions and approvals soon? But....no additional trials in the US as of now. Matter of money? Think about how many people are going on isolation for 3-4 weeks and what damage this brings to the economy, etc. and what costs! But maybe that's something to help cool down the economy and inflation? So many factors to be considered nowadays. And SIGA is certainly working behind the scenes!
But I strongly believe TPOXX and SIGA have a bright future and so do we. And they are starting to give it to kids. That should be the last population you give it too if it wouldn't be safe or if there would be any kind of risks. So there is a bigger plan behind that we are not communicated. But media pressure and rising numbers cannot be ingored for long. Especially if there are positive reports from people using it and having good results.
GLTA
Either they declare what we are expecting or raise the level but not as far as we expect and do some explanation and give more guidance/input. IMHO
Either way, today was strange and I assume next week might bring the EU and potential other countries orders. Fingers crossed, even though it is very difficult with such a silent company as SIGA compared to Bavarian... Let's see.
I guess everyone has taken their side by now. Bought some more today.
If I recall correctly, last time there wasn't a conference update, was there?
GLTA (especially to all longs)
So, pending EU order for 28 states and patent granted in Australia (for production???), WHO decision most likely over the weekend as last time and only slight movement in price?? Guess we will have to wait for WHO, new orders and maybe the quarterly which should be due in about 2 weeks as well. Lots of catalysts in the next few days. Exciting and hopefully rewarding. GLTA
Somehow it looks to me like they want to keep it under 1.0B?? Is the 1.0B of any major significance in anw way??
Currently I am not sure about Thursday anymore. Numbers are updated very slowly and seems to flatten which might result in a decision by the WHO we don't want to see...
Difficult times right now...
Yes and SIGA governments number 1!
Nice day....again!!!
Could it be that governments jump all into vaccines first to try to keep things under control? And if this doesn't work or people don't want to get vaccinated with products that might have severe side effects, will they bring out the treatments (especially their number 1 solution TPOXX)??? What approach woudl you take to contain MPOX from spreading?
In any case, I am convinced that SIGA is producing at capacity and have been instructed and assured to do so! I guess the quarterly will be very telling. Also if BARDA has been calling off quantities earlier than their initial multi-year-plan. All IMHO.
GLTA
Japan starts clinical trials with TPOXX (Tecovirimat). Looks like this has not been picked up on the message boards yet:
Amid increasing reports of monkeypox infections primarily in Europe and the US, Japan is developing vaccine and therapeutic plans to deal with a possible outbreak on its own soil, with a clinical research program launched for the smallpox drug TPOXX…
Unfortunately, you need to sign in to read the full article. GLTA
My 2 cents:
- WHO Meeting Monday or Tuesday and emergency will be declared as the countries are requesting it to happen as soon as possible
- SIGA keeps quiet as they are involved with BARDA and others, who by contract enforce companies to be quiet (NDA's, etc.). That's the game SIGA is involved in. I have never stumbled over SIGA before MPOX.
- I guess - also by contract - they need to give priority to BARDA/US
- Anything that is left they will be able to distribute, but I guess right now, there is not so much left...but huge demand
- This is also shown by the talks of a potential second manufacturing site. Question here is: a brand new factory or a new sub-contractor. Obviously, the second is fester, the first would be set up more to their needs, but would take ages to build, qualify, etc.
- If BARDA asks for earlier delivery under their existing multi-year contract, SIGA most likely won't PR it, as it would just be earlier delivery than initially planned. This we would only see in the quarterly financials
- If the rumour about the huge Korea contract is true and only anywhere close to the size it is rumoured at, then this takes quite a while to sign.
- France approving TPOXX today will mean, more EU countries will follow and an order from France can be expected
All in all (imho) the next 1-2 weeks will show what is really behind it. And I believe we are not told the full truth by WHO/governments...so far.
Do I like SIGA to be that quiet? No.
Do I like that so far only a contract for $13mio has been secured? No.
Do I like the share price? No.
Do I like what might happen in a short time? Yes.
I am done buying. Holding steady and put my shares for sale at $500, so they are not used for anything else (you know what I mean). Do I believe the share price will reach $500? Unlikely. With the 1 production plant at full capa (780'000 - 1'000'000 treatments per year) it might reach $100 - 200 and if a second factory comes into play soon, then maybe double these numbers.
....but: there are risks too (what if adverse reactions to the treatment?, new studies ongoing with unknown outcomes, competition, vaccine vs. treatment, etc.). So invest if you are confident and even if so, only what you can afford. The world is crazy nowadays and what seems to be logical, might go completely opposite.
Good Luck to all!
What we know:
- Europe approval mid Jan 2019
- No partner for licensing announced for Europe even though US/Can partner announced quickly
- Torreya hired & special committee founded March 12th, Torreya results usually within 30 days
- Annual shareholder meeting May 8th -> documents, etc. approx. 2-3 weeks before
What could happen:
- Torreya usual time over within next week
- Shareholder meeting docs, etc. within about 2 weeks
What we might expect:
-> Within the next 10 trading days update/finalization on the path forward!
So....the countdown starts as of Monday and the within the next 10 trading days we might see the result of the special committee and Torreya, even a buy out might be in the cards.
GLTA and hope we will all be positively surprised. Exciting times ahead!!!
What's wrong here??? The big event we waited for, or at least a part of the big event as the partner still not secured, but this bloodbath after submission??? We have submitted and are a late stage biotech company and now 2.50??? Unreal...
Does anyone know if for the EU submission there will be an acknowledgement of receipt or better an acceptance of submission coupled with a due date by when latest there will be a final answer on green light or not?
Haven't followed the board recently, time is missing.
Corporate presentation upload December 2017, so might contain some additional data. Maybe someone can have a look and report back if any important changes? Thanks.
Anybody seen the updated corporate presentation? Says November 2017 and contains couple slides I haven't seen last time I checked. Had only couple minutes to check in, so if this has been reported to the board already, then sorry about that.
What are the chances we get some positive news this within the next few days during ESGO (in Vienna) or SITC (Maryland)?
What's that strange color at the close???
When do we expect the next quarterly numbers? How are we doing in terms of cash after DO has been kicked out? Reducing as they indicated last Q (there were a few one time expenditures...as they said).
Given that we have no new deal, no EU submission for another couple of months, no tech data (at least nothing major projected), less and less money with our huge payroll and unclarity how long we have money for, it is quite simple to attack ADXS in this weak position. Still, we are down huge now.
But when, when does the bleeding stop??? And where is Management????????
Is Adage now below 10%??
Un-un-unbelievable. What the he11 are they doing all day long...?? So shorts are in full control for at least another quarter... Well done!
Repost of my message couple days ago:
PETX presented 2 slides on AT-014 at the Cantor Fitzgerald Conference. Here the text as copied from their presentation (dated September 27th):
SLIDE 28:
AT-014
Canine Osteosarcoma Vaccine
An investigational immunotherapeutic vaccine to target HER2-expressing canine
osteosarcoma licensed from Advaxis
? Preliminary data suggest AT-014 may be able to delay or prevent metastatic
disease and prolong overall survival in dogs with osteosarcoma that had
minimal residual disease following tumor removal
? Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone tumor in dogs and
approximately 10,000 dogs a year are diagnosed in the U.S. (predominantly
middle to older-aged dogs and larger breeds)1
? Current standard of care treatment is amputation immediately after diagnosis,
followed by chemotherapy and sometimes radiation
? Aratana anticipates conditional licensure by the USDA in the second half of 2017
1. Small Animal Clinical Oncology (5th edition); Stephen Withrow, David Vail, Rodney Page; Elsevier 2013; page 463
SLIDE 29:
AT-014 Canine Osteosarcoma Vaccine
? AT-014 uses a live vector to access antigenpresenting cells
? The activated cells secrete TAA-fusion proteins and
may trigger innate, adaptive pathogen immune response
? As a result, the tumor cells are “seen” by the immune
system as pathogen-infected and are targeted by T-cells
Sorry if not easy to read, had to copy from a PDF with pictures. It is located on the PETX website (Investors - presentations)
So, at least Sept 27th things were ongoing and PETX submitted what they believe is required to get conditional licensure.
I am not following PETX in general, so cannot comment on the market size. Just wanted to see what they presented and share with the board. The sentence "Arantana anticipates conditional licensure by the USDA in the second half of 2017" was put in bold by me to highlight.
At least no further delay from the PETX end that we should be aware of.
I don't know if this has been shared already. PETX presented 2 slides on AT-014 at the Cantor Fitzgerald Conference. Here the text as copied from their presentation (dated September 27th):
SLIDE 28:
AT-014
Canine Osteosarcoma Vaccine
An investigational immunotherapeutic vaccine to target HER2-expressing canine
osteosarcoma licensed from Advaxis
? Preliminary data suggest AT-014 may be able to delay or prevent metastatic
disease and prolong overall survival in dogs with osteosarcoma that had
minimal residual disease following tumor removal
? Osteosarcoma is the most common primary bone tumor in dogs and
approximately 10,000 dogs a year are diagnosed in the U.S. (predominantly
middle to older-aged dogs and larger breeds)1
? Current standard of care treatment is amputation immediately after diagnosis,
followed by chemotherapy and sometimes radiation
? Aratana anticipates conditional licensure by the USDA in the second half of 2017
1. Small Animal Clinical Oncology (5th edition); Stephen Withrow, David Vail, Rodney Page; Elsevier 2013; page 463
SLIDE 29:
AT-014 Canine Osteosarcoma Vaccine
? AT-014 uses a live vector to access antigenpresenting cells
? The activated cells secrete TAA-fusion proteins and
may trigger innate, adaptive pathogen immune response
? As a result, the tumor cells are “seen” by the immune
system as pathogen-infected and are targeted by T-cells
Sorry if not easy to read, had to copy from a PDF with pictures. It is located on the PETX website (Investors - presentations)
Let's hope so. Or are they just covering and next Monday after the presentation the same game again...? They took it down from above 7 to below 5 and we are only back at 5.17...long way to go...
Shorts covering 1mio shares in a bit more than 30 minutes??
>850K shares in 30 min...
Nice volume and price action...!!
I am still puzzled why in the recent presentation they had shown Phase III as active, however, we have not heard anything about it yet. Whatever is ongoing, I guess they cannot hold back for very long and normally they would PR such an event.
We might well see 50mio OS before the company is being bought out or has final FDA approval. But still if the MC is 3B, then we are at $60, with the famous 6B, then $120, 10B makes $200...I could live with that... Question is timeframe and if 50mio OS is enough...
The company is very quiet recently. I wonder if the latest investment round and the fact that phase III hasn't started are somewhat linked to another BP deal with financing? We have enough money to start phase III on our own and all lights should be green to go, but it feels like something is holding us back...final details on another deal?? Tomorrow is Wed, maybe deal-news-day??
Higher highs this year!
Don't take me wrong ZTsambis, I truly believe you posted in good faith. But it's hard to trust in Shaun with what he has made you belief...
So, what happened to the nice version that was presented on this board? 1:2000 is what it says - no matter how you turn it... GLTA
Understand, so you were trading on the upswing. Well done!
What's your take of the situation/PR?
Have you been trying to buy?
People are just holding until more clarity is given. Most are so far down, they won't sell if there is a glimpse of hope. And this glimpse is different from what Tzambis got from Shaun and what is written in the PR... Until I see confirmation from the company - via a PR, a filling or any other "official way" and not some indirect communication on a message board - I remain sceptical.
Hey Ztsambis, this obviously sounds a lot different than the wording of the PR. If Shaun is reading this message board it might be a great idea to put out another PR soon, clarifying this. To me the original wording came over much differently than what you got from the company... So this this might explain the rather low volume after the PR.
GLTA.
Thanks for this additional input & fully agree with your example of $1.9mio for the current shares. Now with the 1:2000 the share price should go to $7.6 which also makes sense. I am not going into details on what happens to most stocks that do an R/S. Just that much: the price normally drops soon afterwards...
Having said this I also agree that EXBX (or whatever it will be called) will have the possibility to issue up to 500mio shares. Are you agreeing that with their plan to issue 40mio POST Split shares, this is equal to 80,000,000,000 PRE Split shares? This is the big threat and will destroy the share price of $7.6 immediately...
Regarding the new company CGB there is no indication about the potential price as it is not traded on any exchange (at least this is what I have learned on Ihub). So who knows what this will be trading at?
How can there be assurance that after the R/S the 40mio are not just thrown out in the market for some people at the helm to make a fortune and just tell us one day: unfortunately the deal with CGB didn't materialize and they just disappear again...with all the new money?? Sounds like a perfect pinky world scenario. JMHO
For sure they will make money. No doubt people at the helm will turn this positive for themselves. I was tempted to buy some EXBX just before the announcement. I was sure there was something going on having seen the upward trend, but having seen the PR this looks like dilution hell!! I don't understand how people are not getting this.
The R/S itself sounds not too bad as it would bring up the price. However issuing 40mio POST SPLIT shares for taking over the new company is ridiculous!!!
Let's see how they spin it and how long it takes until reality settles on this board... JMHO & good luck to all! Maybe I am missing something but for now, I don't see how this could work well for existing holders.
I am not getting the party mood here. The latest PR says the following:
Under the terms of the Agreement for the acquisition; The Company will complete a reverse of 1 share for each 2,000 shares currently owned, and will acquire the controlling Interest of CBG, by issuing 40,000,000 post reversed Common shares of the company. The transaction is expected to occur on or before February 28, 2014, unless mutually extended by both parties.
So, I believe currently there are between 400-500mio A/S. After the reverse split (2'000 to 1) -> 200'000 A/S.
Then it says to aquire the controlling interest of CBG the company will issue 40mio POST REVERSED COMMON SHARES OF THE COMPANY. Now doesn't this mean that the company will issue at least an additional 40mio shares after the reverse split and dilute this stock into the ground? These 40mio shares would be pre-split 80,000,000,000 shares.
Where am I missing something here??? So as I see it, EXBX is completely dead and won't bring any money at all. The only hope is that CBG is bringing money, but given that this is not trading yet, what will the price level be? We cannot compare to any current stock price and this sound fishy to me
Will close just slightly below 5 I guess.