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PFC…..pretty……close
Beautiful!….finally
Thanks for posting this. Didn't even know they were both on it. I believe I read on the board they both are slated May 30th to do it again. Blessings!
I think you nailed it!….but I think eps will be closer to 20 than 15.
Thanks, Sharp! Your diligence is greatly appreciated! Blessings!
My Q1 expectations:
I see analyst estimates at $6.75m and 3c EPS... lol
Topline Revenue: $9.75m
International: $0.5m
Commercial: $0 (no idea)
STEP: $0.86m
Government (less STEP): $7.1m
Warranty: $0.6m
Installation: $0.35m
Software: $0.3m (no idea)
Gross Margins: 57%
Gross Profit: $5.5m
SG&A: $2.7m (no idea)
R&D: $0.7m (no idea)
OPEX: $3.4m
EBITDA: $2.5m
Net Income: $1.7m
EPS: $0.15
Bookings: $6m
Backlog: $24m
Cash: $17m?
Inventory: $9.5m
---
A lot of this revenue is coming from the CBP+IRS orders in Q3, so I could very well be off by ~$1m revenue and we could see sub $9m revenue. But I very much expect us to be closer to $9m than $8m revenue.
Fish,
You been drinkin tonight?
Ha!
Relative to many other tiny company stocks VTSI has been trading very strong the last couple weeks. Hope that foretells upcoming strong results.
AZ is trying again, for more money and more simulators this time
https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/56leg/1R/summary/S.2632GOV-APPROP_ASPASSEDCOMMITTEE.DOCX.htm
Approved by the AZ house, looks like it passed some Senate Committees for $1,368,000
Thanks for sharing! But this bill didn't pass the AZ Senate
Shooting Simulator Market to Witness Excellent Growth by 2030 | Key Players: VirTra, Marksman, Laser Ammo
https://fylladey.com/2023/05/shooting-simulator-market-to-witness-excellent-growth-by-2030-key-players-virtra-marksman-laser-ammo/
I’d say so…whoa. That a buy right there.
Somebody getting interested the last few minutes.
Thanks for sharing Ardly, not a question of IF, but WHEN
May 15th - Legal but Ridiculous. May 15th and after the close! Not very shareholder friendly. Not very investor friendly. Same problem, Q2 will be over half finished and they are reporting Q1 results. It minimizes the importance of the results.
Furthermore…..with their new ERP system these results are always up to date and available real time each day.
Why not do the right thing, the investor/shareholder friendly thing, and issue a PR with unaudited preliminary results one week after quarter end and then file the official 10q after 45days (or 90 days at year end).
IVAS Updates - seems like it's still alive...
Army moves to further automate its IVAS program’s processes with bots
FEBRUARY 28, 2023
https://defensescoop.com/2023/02/28/army-moves-to-further-automate-its-ivas-programs-processes/
IVAS’ Campaign of Learning Ensures Development, Production and Fielding Remain on Track
March 14, 2023
https://www.army.mil/article/264773/ivas_campaign_of_learning_ensures_development_production_and_fielding_remain_on_track
Changes ahead in the next version of the Army’s ‘mixed reality’ goggle
Wednesday, Apr 5
https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2023/04/05/changes-ahead-in-the-next-version-of-the-armys-mixed-reality-goggle/
Added another 500 shares this morning @ 5.38. Accumulation!
I would think so! Looking forward to those Q1 numbers just a couple weeks from now.
That is a pretty good signal for how they did in Q1.
Saw on my LinkedIn feed that Bob and John will be doing an interview on StoryTrading on 5/30.... Glad John going to be on as well, hope he goes off script A LOT! Lol
Totally agree Fish.... And for D. maybe request questions prior to the call that they can then answer? Don't want Bob to be too scared : )
A few “free” things VirTra could do if they cared:
a. Announce all quarterly results within 5weeks of quarter end.
b. Provide annual guidance in January of each year.
c. Start an employee stock purchase plan for their employees.
d. Take questions from shareholders during their earnings calls.
But all the above pales in comparison to fixing their Sales Org. They also need to shut up and stop teasing “Military opportunities”. They have been coy about it for 3 years now and have delivered exactly……nothing.
Calling all activists…..
$13 Forecast - https://www.investorsobserver.com/symbols/vtsi/news
Thanks! Good read! Blessings!
Here's what pastes:
Summary
The Q4'22 report was extremely bullish for the stock's 2023 prospects.
There was good news about revenue, margins, and expenses.
The market still undervalues VTSI, which should be north of $10/share by the end of 2023.
Handcuffed suspect being arrested by police at night
kali9/E+ via Getty Images
VirTra, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTSI) sells state of the art training simulators for police and military use. I profiled the company and predicted 2023 results in my prior article here. Since publication, the Q4 report was extremely positive, and my target price range has gone from $6 - $9 to $9.60 - $14.40 per share.
Let's review some of the positive developments from the company 10-k and Q4 management commentary.
1. Margin Outlook
On the Q4 conference call Richard Baldry of ROTH Capital complimented the quarters gross margins and asked if they are sustainable? Co-CEO Bob Ferris said, "Am I happy with gross margins? No, I'm never happy with gross margins. I think the trend will continue to go up. I would say maybe 10% higher is kind of where I would -- it would be a fair target over the next 18 months". I assumed gross margins of 55% in my prior article, because Bob had targeted margins of 50% - 60%, but 10% improvement on Q4'22 or FY'22 equates to gross margins of 67% - 71%. Though this range will probably not materialize immediately, it looks like margins should be at least 60% in 2023 and even higher in 2024.
2. Backlog Guidance
The company's backlog ended 2022 at $27.7M, up 20% from the end of 2021 despite record annual revenue of $28.3M in 2022. During the Q4 call, Richard Baldry asked management if they'll be able to cut the backlog down over the course of 2023? Bob replied that his goal is to cut backlog to "less than half" of $27.7M. He outlined that after this reduction, backlog should start to grow as STEP deals increase in importance for the company. Bob did not provide a timeline for accomplishing this, but if they make significant progress over the course of FY'23 the company will beat my $35M revenue estimate.
3. STEP Commentary
On the Q4 call VirTra provided the most in depth data ever about their STEP (Subscription Training Equipment and Partnership) offering. In 2022 STEP revenue was $2.9M, representing 10% of revenue and 48% growth over the prior year. This revenue is extremely high margin with retention rates north of 90% at lease expiry. In my $35M revenue model I only assumed $5M of STEP and warranty revenue. In 2022 the company reported $5.8M of STEP and warranty revenue. Since they will likely exceed this amount in 2023, there is at least $1M of cushion on my $35M revenue target.
4. Balance Sheet Factors
VirTra ended the year with $13.5M in cash compared to $19.7M at the end of 2021. This $6.2M cash burn seems concerning at first glance, but upon deeper examination it is an encouraging sign. To begin with, net inventory increased by $4.6M over the course of 2022. I expect this to reverse as the company works through backlog in 2023. Furthermore, the company had an increase to unbilled revenue of $3.5M in 2022. That number will likely descend as invoices go out the door. VirTra's cash drain in 2022 was driven by inventory and unbilled revenue increases that will reverse in 2023. There is no risk of dilution in 2023.
5. Operating Expense Levels
Profitability is critical for growth stock performance. The company clearly stated that gross margins are going to improve in 2023, but what about operating margins? VirTra's operating expenses decreased from $3.6M in Q3'22 to $3.4M in Q4'22. Asked to comment on the trend of absolute spend during the Q4 call co-CEO John Givens stated, "it's going to go down and stay there for several quarters anyways.". As such, my original $16M in operating expense assumption for 2023 looks quite conservative.
Updating the Operating Model
It is appropriate to change the 2023 revenue target from $35M to $36M. Likewise, 2023 margins should be 60% not 55%. Furthermore, it's fair based on trends and guidance to take opex down from $16M to $15M. Assuming the company pays the full corporate tax rate of 21%, this yields net income of $5.2M. With 10.9M shares outstanding VirTra should generate $0.48/share in earnings. If the market applies a 20x - 30x P/E multiple to this micro-cap profitable growth story shares will be worth $9.59 - $14.39 per share.
A screenshot of a list Description automatically generated with low confidence
2023 Operating Model (Excel)
Conclusion
The Q4 report and conference call was bullish for VirTra. Margins are going to be higher than I previously thought, the company is making aggressive statements about working through backlog, and the STEP offering is proving to be popular. The company is carefully managing expenses. VirTra should generate almost $0.50/share in earnings and trade north of $10 within a year.
Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Can you cut and paste? It won't open for me... Thanks!
It’s like as soon as the stock blipped up he couldn’t wait to do it. Pathetic.
Looks to me like Schneid was the smart one. The rest of us bag holders…..til the week of May 15th.
Isn’t the problem that he did #2 but months before he had to? Presumably he’d have a window to do it post q1 earnings release so how confident can we be in that now despite his claim it was off to a strong start. I wish he could add to the disclosure something like ‘sorry guys I wanted to buy a boat and had to deposit this week’
I am very bullish on the stock for all the reasons I previously stated. I post what I do here to simply needle the CEO since he is a daily reader. We just finished up our Summer here in Wis, last week it 80f every day. Today 28f and 8 inches of fresh snow!
Your point is correct. He had three choices:
1. Exercise the options and pay the company $20,950 and keep the shares.
2. Do what he did, and pocket $8800.
3. Do nothing and let them expire July 1st.
#3 would have been the most stupid. And with #1, maybe he didn’t have $21k laying around. He likely did what he did because it was the easiest and he could pocket a few bucks.
I still hate it though but agree it’s mostly a nothing burger.
Ferris is one of if not the largest shareholders. He sold 5000 shares from stock options. You all are overreacting. And to think he's a very wealthy man? How? He makes a few hundred thousand a year and has dedicated his life to Virtra. He may be very wealthy on paper if he liquidated all his stock but I don't think he's as wealthy as you all think. And him selling 5000 stock options shares is a nothing burger when he and his family already own more shares than anyone. If he didn't own so many shares it would be a different story. We are talking at most a 30k stock sale. Nothing burger
How can you, or anyone, possibly be bullish on this company when your CEO, probably a very rich man, sells his shares for chump change??? You should all be furious and tell him what an assh.....e. he is. Your puny complaints via Board Posts just won't cut it.
This is the kind of garbage that puts Ferris in the bottom tier of CEOs. Those 5000options didn’t expire til July 1st. Yet he takes his $1.76 per option now ($5.95 minus $4.19), rather than either exercising and keeping the shares or waiting til closer to July 1 when the closing price might be higher.
What a moronic move for a CEO who is supposedly bullish on the company.
This move says he does not believe the stock will be higher than $5.95 between now and July1. Even worse, it means he does not want to own another 5000shares for the long term.
Step up BOD, fire Ferris!
Did I just see that Bob just sold or purchased 5000 shares. I think he sold. Can someone verify that for me.
New video posted on YouTube FWIW
VirTra - Simulation training
Yes, I listened today and added.
Just listened.. Great job, Sharp! As always, I appreciate your insights! Please keep them coming! Give the Wisconsin guy a little grace... Incredible cold and a lack of sun in the Winter leads to very grey lenses through which one views the world...(jk, Fish... I appreciate your insights as well). Blessings to all!
Aww crap, I really stuck my foot in my mouth on that one. Sorry.
I did say in the previous post that you guys were likely correct on your viewpoints.
But I do stand by the point I was trying to make. I think CEOs should not be spending any non public time with people like you or me or anyone else. When I spent a half day with Ferris, Mulcahy, Johnson a few years back, while I enjoyed it, even at the time I thought it was stupid of them to invite me. And if it’s any consolation, I consider myself to be about 7th tier relative to your 3rd tier.
I am the guest on the podcast who you're calling third tier :)
Are you somehow affiliated with Gomes or Crawford or the specific podcast I was commenting about? I’m just trying to understand your reaction.
Sharp, I def appreciate your insights and deep dive DD!
Not familiar with the guy that did the podcast, but I def stay up to date with Gomes, he does really good research and makes really good pics.... I question his altruism claims sometimes, as he makes out well on the research he shares and the subsequent buying that occurs, but he does provide the info for free, so he is entitled to make his off of it.
Appreciate the feedback, fish! Glad to hear you enjoyed all of the research I and others have provided. I know we all don’t constantly rehash our uninformed opinions about the sales org and BoD for years at a time and instead share our research from ongoing military opportunities, the timelines of said programs, industry trade shows which cost hundreds of dollars and time to attend, opinions of people in industry, and surfacing information received from FOIA requests. Oh yeah, also https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=166358413" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" > breaking the news to this message board about IVAS delay which coincided, to the day, with the stock price drop from 12.
A couple other things struck me in the podcast. These guys have the same fault as other analysts in that they are not willing to criticize or call out obvious flaws in the company because they do not want to lose access. For them to say the stock went from 12 to 4 for no other reason than Ivas being delayed was irresponsible and simply incorrect.
The other thing is this….Why is Ferris even associating with these guys in any way? He is giving them special access to himself and the company. People like Gomes and Crawford are third tier or worse in terms of their expertise and influence. The type of investors they reach is not the type of investor that is good for a company like VirTra. And that in a nutshell is THE problem with Greg Johnson (now on VirTra BOD) as I’m sure he is the one who connected these sort of people with Ferris.
If they are going to get down in the mud, Ferris and Givens should be dancing with deep pocketed mature influential respected investors and not pretend eye candy influencers whose followers have the attention span (and money) of a 2 year old.
Ferris/Givens would be far better off to spend 100% of their time on increasing revenue and eps, not courting wanna-be podcasters/influencers.
It was a fun listen and I think they are right in what they said. But I was again struck by the obvious fact that they do not know any more about the company and stock than all of us here. All of their editorial comments were vague and general, but not cuz they were trying to hide or be cute, it was because they do not have any more of a clue than all the rest of us.
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COMPANY PROFILE: VirTra Systems, Inc. develops, sells, and supports use-of-force and marksmanship firearms training simulators in Arizona and internationally. Its products comprise V-300 simulator, a 300 degree wrap around screen for simulation training; V-180 simulator, a 180-degree screen for smaller spaces and budgets; V-100, a single-screen based simulator system; V-ST, a realistic single screen simulated shooting range simulator; and Top SME Content, a content supplied with its simulators. The company also offers V-Author, a software that allows users to create, edit, and train with content specific to agency objectives; Simulated Recoil, a range of realistic and reliable simulated recoil kits/weapons; and Threat-Fire, a return fire device that applies real-world stress on the trainees during simulation training. It serves law enforcement judgement use-of-force simulation training, military firearms simulation training, and civilian simulation shooting markets. The company sells its simulators and related products through a direct sales force and distribution partners. The company was formerly known as Ferris Productions, Inc. and changed its name to VirTra Systems, Inc. in April 2002. VirTra Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
VIRTRA SYSTEMS WEBSITE: http://www.virtra.com/
VIRTRA SYSTEMS FACEBOOK: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Virtra-Systems-Inc/100717131887
VIRTRA SYSTEMS TWITTER: http://twitter.com/VirtraSystems
VIRTRA SYSTEMS YOUTUBE: http://www.youtube.com/user/VirtraSystems
Bob Ferris, CEO
VirTra Systems, Inc.
7970 S. Kyrene Rd.
Tempe, AZ 85284
telephone (480) 968-1488 x5014
telecopier (480) 968-1448 fax
bferris@virtra.com
Contract - Websites
https://www.usaspending.gov/#/keyword_search/virtra
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/search/site/virtra
https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.keyword&keyword=virtra
https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/
https://govtribe.com/vendor/virtra-systems-inc-tempe-az
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=list&tab=list
http://www.peostri.army.mil/
ThreatFire Patent:
Click here
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