Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA)

[powerwalker]

Roger, what is going on with you and your ohtuvayre experience?

We would like to hear about it.

[MegaPirate61]

Well they went and announced unofficial earnings on their own today. Also says they sold 12.5 million shares at an avg of 39.50 of so through Jeffries. Must have something else to announce at jpm?

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma Reports Strong Ohtuvayre™ Launch and Provides Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Highlights

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-strong-ohtuvayre-110000636.html

Sounds positive and noted the "J-code" that MegaPirate had emphasized. 👍️❤️

[powerwalker]

Thank you, MegaPirate, for your reply.

[MegaPirate61]

I'm not Hoskuld but the company said in q n a session last earnings call that they would announce unaudited q4 2024 sales at jpm around Jan 12 to 14 if I remember right. We will all need to be patient here. A launch doesn't really start until the second quarter of having a j code which is just now active. We will have a better indication in a year of the early results.

[powerwalker]

Hoskuld, do you think Verona will be invited to JP Morgan Healthcare Conference next week?

[Hoskuld]

That is so great Roger! How has ohtuvayre helped you? Easier to breathe? Less phlegm? Would you be willing to share your experience?

[powerwalker]

Best of luck, Roger … it is time for a Christmas present for you and your elbow Virginians.

Merry Christmas and a prosperous 2025.
powerwalker

[Roger1]

I can tell you the drug works for me. Acaria Pharma, specialty pharmacy filling rx's has thrown a wrench in the works by requiring Virginia patients to have additional Rx from the physician greatly increasing the time needed to fill. Ohtovayre patient portal reps are unaware. I've told 2 of them about it and emailed company but have not received any response. That was several weeks ago. I know my pulmonologist has prescribed it for several patients but I believe I may be the first to actually receive it.
,

[powerwalker]

GIDDY-UP, VERONA, and all you hedge managers and investment bankers hitch yourselves to this rocket! It is ready to take-off!

[powerwalker]

Let's go you, Investment advisors and hedge fund managers, get your valuation models going full tilt this weekend to calculate how quickly Verona can get to $100 ... and start buying!

[powerwalker]

Hopefully, Verona will break the $40 ceiling and stay above it. Its performance deserves it.

[Hoskuld]

PW another claim by management is that this is the best pulmonary launch ever (by far.)

[powerwalker]

Thank you, Hoskuld. I'll listen to one of the two tomorrow.

[Hoskuld]

I thought it was excellent PW: uptake is strong and docs are prescribing earlier in the disease cycle than anticipated which underscores the hunger for a differentiated therapy. Feedback from docs is good. Based on what he said, I expect the company will be cash flow positive by April.

[powerwalker]

Any word on today's presentation?

[Roger1]

Yes. Still waiting. Seems to be quite a process with Acaria pharmacy, Medicare, coinsurance. No idea where the process is at. I do know dr.s office has done all that's been asked. They are just as interested in any improvement as I am. Have a feeling I'm the guinea pig for this practice. <S>. I wonder if pharmacy is overwhelmed or is there some other reason. I'll let you know if I hear anything. Have a great day. 

[powerwalker]

Good morning, Roger:

Did the doctor's office get things right, so you are now on Ohtuvayre?

If so, let us know how it is helping.

[powerwalker]

Upcoming next week:

Verona Pharma Announces December 2024 Investor Conference Participation
Share

LONDON and RALEIGH, N.C., Nov. 19, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Verona Pharma plc (Nasdaq: VRNA) (“Verona Pharma” or the “Company”) announces that senior management will present a company overview at the following conferences in December 2024:

Piper Sandler 36th Annual Healthcare Conference
Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. GMT
Location: New York, NY

7th Annual Evercore HealthCONx Conference
Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. GMT
Location: Miami, FL

A webcast of each conference presentation will be available on the Events and Presentations link on the Investors page of the Company’s website, www.veronapharma.com.

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-announces-december-2024-investor-conference-participation/

[MegaPirate61]

Probably a moot point. If it's a 200 billion dollar asset over time the most big pharma will pay is 20b. And they will take it sooner rather than later. Maybe within the next 2 yrs.

[Hoskuld]

Pricing is the US is pretty sweet - ROW not so much. If bicyclical then the motion will be elliptical.

[powerwalker]

Does anyone have thoughts on yesterday's presentation? I read the slides and come away with the impression that Verona can serve 50% of the market with the focus on 80% of the HCPs intent to Prescribe Ohtuvayre.

With $1.1 billion in sales for each !% or 86K patients, those are BIG numbers down the road as Mega and Hoskuld shared earlier this week.

[MegaPirate61]

Just search fintel Duquesne position of 680k shares you can validate this on multiple sites. Use ai in your searches lol

[powerwalker]

Mega, article is behind a pay-wall for CNBC, so can't see it.

I think he will buy more ... sooner, rather than later.

[Roger1]

It is in process. Mixup at doctors office. Verona and Acaria have been very supportive and helpful. Should be straightened out today.

[powerwalker]

Roger, it appears that folks there liked what they heard as well as Druckenmiller's $20 million purchase would have encourage others to buy now. [I did not find anything, either. Possibly, later today it will be available.]

BTW, how is your situation? Have you received it?

[Roger1]

I thought the presentation was to be webcast and found on the investor tab. I didn't find it this morning at 0630. Anyone else?

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma Announces December 2024 Investor Conference Participation

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-announces-december-2024-investor-conference-participation/

Not the PR I was expecting for this morning ... hoping for data being shown today at Jefferies conference.

[powerwalker]

Mega, great find. He is a top-notch investor.

[MegaPirate61]

This guy Druckenmiller bought $20 mil worth vrna last month. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/druckenmiller-bought-regional-banks-but-a-healthcare-pick-is-his-biggest-bet.html

It's listed in a fund he manages. Duquesne.

[powerwalker]

PR in morning before NYSE opens?

[MegaPirate61]

Especially if soc in asthma and label expansion seasonal allergies... then it's worth is really high for that spring pollen pop. If international then it will be a bicyclical which would smooth the revenue curve. Lots of if statements of course.

[Hoskuld]

Right - if SOC then this blows up in a good way.

[powerwalker]

On November 19th, possibly updates on scripts//sales ...

Verona Pharma to Present at Jefferies London Healthcare Conference

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-present-jefferies-london-070000088.html

[powerwalker]

Hoskuld, any thing new on the scripts? Tough day yesterday.

[MegaPirate61]

I'm seeing a lot of soc references in the commentary from the analysts and physicians networks. If that happens in asthma and copd it's 20 billion per month. Obviously that's a long shot but it's possible in 10 yrs. That's the scary thing.

[Hoskuld]

LOL I like your sign off! I don't think most COPD patients will switch to ohtuvayre but will just add Oh (steroids are pretty cheap.) Add 250,000 bronchiectasis patients to probably 1.5m COPD patients and those add up to some immense numbers. Maybe I lack imagination, but I don't think $100b is in the cards - maybe $20b if every single thing goes well.

[MegaPirate61]

New valuation of vrna at 218 per share per takeover advocate specialist Caligan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/caligan-takes-a-stake-in-verona-pharma-sees-opportunity-to-generate-more-value.html

I personally feel this estimate is way low. If a big part 4 million copd patients on steroids are switched over to ohtuvayre as fda is pushing, plus other combos in a progressive disease scenario (meaning eventually all copd patients will need something else to supplement their therapy) you're looking at 3300 per 3 month supply or 13 billion per quarter. Double that for the 1 million fibrosis patients plus asthmatic patients once approved, and that's 100 bil per yr + without international or other label expansion. Fairly safe to say it's a 250 billion dollar asset in 10 yrs all imo.

I'd put fair value at 2000 per share minimum. But what do I know I'm just a pirate. Ohtuvayrrrg!

[Hoskuld]

And scripts are trending up in a big way - recently they have been doubling every 4 weeks.

[MegaPirate61]

Insider purchases that appear to be about 200 grand worth, possible exercises of options but marked as acquired nov 6

[powerwalker]

Why the pop over the last 90 minutes or so?

[Hoskuld]

Hi PW! Scripts will just tell us the trend - which is strong right now - but cannot give us the absolute #s...which are about 2.5x-3x the IMS script data. I think the company would consider a buyout at the right price - IMO $100 right now would be OK based on the trend and the upside is huge from there.

[powerwalker]

Thank you for your reply.

As to 1), will we learn of those higher revenues directly from Verona or indirectly via the weekly script info?

For 2), are the company's actions geared towards a take-out soon or later when more revenue sources are likely? or, will Glaxo and AZ jump the gun and go after Verona now that revenue is coming in strong for a sensational product?

Once again, thank you, Hoskuld.

[Hoskuld]

I think there are 2 catalysts:

1. The continuous catalyst of higher and higher revenues and

2. Acquisition by Glaxo or AstraZeneca etc.

It will take a while for Bronchiectasis trial results but those will help, too.

[powerwalker]

Hoskuld, thanks for your post, to which I agree. What are the next catalysts for the stock ... or we wait until next year for Q4 and total 2024 numbers?

TYIA

[Hoskuld]

Hi Powerwalker. These were great results. The actually scripts are much much higher than the IMS scripts indicate. This is trending to be a blockbuster by the end of next year. VRNA is going to be one of those big winners - and because it is now backed up by revenue, it is far less risky now from a PPS pov.

[powerwalker]

Verona Pharma Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-third-quarter-070000243.html

One has to like that October sales were HIGHER than Q3's.

[powerwalker]

Hoskuld, have you seen any numbers?

TYIA

[MegaPirate61]

All my best to you Roger. Noticed the earnings which is always on thursdays is now on Monday. Can't help but wonder if Ligand wants a bigger stake than just low single digit royalty on ohtuvayre. Though a takeout by azn is possible I think ligand all stock deal or 5 to 10% buy in is far more likely.

[powerwalker]

Roger, that will be great. God bless you and your family. Hopefully, you are among the new script numbers for next week.