Value Microcaps Food, Agriculture and Soft Commodities

[Bobwins]

By James Wellstead- Exclusive to Potash Investing News


After closing out 2011 on 52-week lows, many are hopeful that 2012 will be a year that potash and phosphate producers can reflect the sector’s strong growth potential. But despite strong long-term fundamentals in the fertilizer sector, the uncertainties hanging over 2012 appear unlikely to offer a quick turn around in the value of potash and phosphate prices or company values.
Contrary to the oft-cited fluid trend of growing emerging market wealth leading to rising food prices, fertilizer demand and investment into potash and phosphate production, a number of factors are stymieing upward equalization in potash and phosphate markets. One of the primary concerns in this process is slowed growth in both the Eurozone and a number of emerging economies (particularly China) who have been driving food and fertilizer demand.
While some of this economic slow down may bring relief to food prices, it appears that may not yet be the case. According to the United Nation’s new Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) chief Jose Graziano da Silva, “[the FAO is] expecting that [food] prices will not grow and not drop” in 2012, and that “volatility will remain.” While slowing food price growth is certainly welcomed, it is unlikely that consumer incomes can keep up with food price growth over the long run – a key component in supporting strong potash and phosphate prices.
Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, recently noted that he believes China’s food prices may have begun to fall off of its year-on-year growth rate of 14.8 percent in July, down to a more modest 7.7 percent into the beginning of 2012. But for this to really make an impact, wages must rise at around the same pace.
In an effort to subvert some of these demand constraints faced in emerging markets, India’s junior fertilizer minister, Srikant Jena, recently told Bloomberg that India may re-introduce state controls on retail prices of some fertilizers after soil nutrient rates almost doubled in the past nine months. While the impact could increase exports from companies like Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (TSX:POT) or Uralkali, it does not seem to be a viable long-term solution for the Indian government to pursue.
Potash and phosphate early outlook
As a result, the weak global economic picture, coupled with emerging economies who are proving to be more elastic and responsive to rising food prices than predicted, has created conditions in which growing supplies of fertilizer stocks, in particular phosphate, are unwanted. Already Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS), the world’s largest producer of phosphate and second largest of potash, announced earlier this week plans to reduce its production of phosphates by as much as 250,000 tons over the next three months in response to shrinking demand and falling spot prices, the Wall Street Journal reported.
With expanded phosphate production rising over the past year, sufficient phosphate surpluses in Brazil and in Europe mean that it is unlikely we will see much support for current phosphate prices according to a recent report produced by the Dutch economic forecasting firm Rabobank.
As a result, numerous reports have seen market participants exercising caution leading into the spring planting season as buyers have reduced purchases to take advantage of downward trending prices expected in the spring in a number of countries who export into emerging and established markets.
Potash prices too, though better protected by a limited supply base from singular marketers in North America and the former Soviet Union, are not immune to weakening global demand.
2012 may finish strong
Despite the pessimistic projects for the first quarter of 2012, a number of redeeming elements still remain. While high fertilizer prices and waning food demand do present a cost disincentive for buyers looking to increase crop yields, declining global food stockpiles are in need of replenishing. Following numerous floods in the North American breadbasket and droughts in Eastern Europe and Russia, coupled with fast-paced consumption growth demand, a marked increase in grain stocks in particular are required in 2012.
Commenting in June of 2011, Wayne Brownlee, Executive VP and CFO for PotashCorp, noted that in order for diminishing grain supplies to break even with demand in 2011 “…and not have the situation get worse, we need crop production this year in the grain sector of five percent growth”, above the average annual production increase of two percent. These conditions were not met in 2011 and, pending weather conditions, will instead look to be gained in 2012.
Further, Scotia Capital projected that Chinese growth could rebound closer to its 10 percent growth rate in the second quarter of 2012, bringing knock-on impacts for global commodities prices.
This optimism appears likely to be a persistent sentiment throughout the fertilizer markets. With strong global food prices and what could be a political priority in a number of countries worldwide, the long term trend is clear. Mosaic President and Chief Executive Jim Prokopanko echoed this sentiment this week, saying “the current spot prices in this market do not reflect our outlook for the business, nor do we think they are sustainable.”

Disclosure: I, James Wellstead, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

[SSKILLZ1]

VMC PSL 20 Deadline Friday

Remember the deadline is Friday's Close. So get your picks in. Here's the link.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=23055

[rocketeer357]

A well timed buy IMHO. AAA has executed seamlessly, both with their proving up of reserves and their financing.

I'm looking for a buy out in 2012, hopefully in time to lift my FED.WT a bit before it expires worthless.

[curlews]

AAA.to/ALLRF, .85 - I finally bought some of this board favorite today. The chart looks to me as if the selling is finally drying up, with a double bottom formed, and it looks like a candidate for a bounce after tax-loss selling. Fundamentals for potash in general look great, and for this potash project in particular look very good. The 9 analysts that follow the stock have 12-month price targets in the range of 1.60 to 2.70, any one of which would please me greatly.

[Bobwins]

By Leia Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News


After a stellar 2010, 2011 came in as a “disappointing” year in terms of investment results in potash and phosphate stocks. In 2011, grains touched record prices, and supplies touched record lows. With rising grains prices, farmers have incentive to fertilize to maximize yields and profits. Still, given the sector’s fundamentals, the stocks of potash and phosphate producers performed poorly.
After a look around the sector, it is easy to see that as the year comes to a close, most potash and phosphate producers have stock values hovering close to 52-week lows. As of December 21, shares of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) were trading at $40.14, just above their 52-week low of $38.42, and well off their 52-week high of $63.97. Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) is at $22.64; their 52 week low is $20.75 and their 52 week high $40.22. Agrium (NYSE:AGU) is fairing slightly better, with a share price of $67.59 compared to a 52-week low of $60.15, and a 52-week high of $99.14. Given the banner year potash and phosphate producers have had in terms of production, demand, and pricing, it is surprising that share values have not reflected fundamentals.
Record potash demand
2011 was a year of record demand for both phosphate and potash. For potash, demand rebounded so aggressively, and so suddenly, that both Canpotex and BPC were virtually sold out of potash by the third quarter of 2011. In the second quarter of 2011, Potash Corp. saw production hit an all-time record high of 2.6 million tonnes.
Fertilizer prices increased in 2011
Prices for potash and phosphate also advanced this year. Potash enjoyed an approximate $100 per tonne increase over the course of the year (in March, potash was fetching $409 per tonne recent contracts were settled in the range of $520 to $550 per tonne). Meanwhile, phosphate also witnessed a $100 per tonne price increase.
Poor economic picture impacts potash producer stock prices
This year, strong sector fundamentals were overshadowed by a deteriorating global economic picture. The ongoing debt crisis in Europe took a bite out of all commodities; potash and phosphate were no exception. Adding to the downside potential in the potash and phosphate market, was the disappointing global economic recovery. After a rapid rebound from the recession in 2010, gains in 2011 did not keep up with expectations. As stated by Bill Doyle, CEO of Potash Corporation, producers of potash and phosphate are “not immune to the global macroeconomic picture.” Even as the year comes to an end, after about 6 months of uncertainty, the global economic outlook is still mixed.
There are mixed views on the performance of the fertilizer sector for the future. According to Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank economics VP and commodity markets specialist, “The average spot price of potash should climb to at least $650/t by late 2012 – perhaps higher.” In an interview, Northern Securities analyst Fadi Benjamin said “In the short term, you should expect prices to continue going up.” While Benjamin said spot potash prices reaching $600/t at the Port of Vancouver would “definitely be a stretch”, they could “easily” add a further $50/t to current levels during 2012. Richard Kelertas of Dundee Securities Corp expects flat growth over the coming months. However, if the European debt crisis is resolved, Kelertas predicts that the potash market could see a boost.
The outlook for phosphate is trending negative. In the last month of the year there was a plethora of analyst downgrades to phosphate stocks, all citing weakening phosphate prices. Most recently, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) cut its recommendation on shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS) to neutral from overweight as phosphate prices are moving lower and may continue to do so following capacity additions in the Middle East.

Securities Disclosure: I, Leia Toovey, hold equity interests in Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan

[Max Power]

Allana Potash says updated resource, new equity sources expected for 2012
9:10 am by Deborah Sterescu
With a recently-completed, positive preliminary economic assessment (PEA) under its belt, Allana Potash (TSE:AAA) (OTCQX:ALLRF) is expecting a host of developments in the new year, including securing equity capital from a new set of strategic investors to support its project in Ethiopia.
In late November, the company announced the results of the PEA for its Dallol potash project for production of one million tonnes, with the potential to expand output at the site to two million tonnes of muriate of potash (MOP) product per year at a later stage.
The economic study, conducted by Ercosplan and based on solution mining with a solar evaporation method, yielded, on an after-tax basis, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 36.8 percent and a net present value (NPV) of US$1.85 billion, based on a 12 percent discount rate.
The results exceeded management's expectations, said president and CEO Farhad Abasov, with the project having "one of the lowest capex and opex in the world" in the potash industry, especially when compared to Saskatchewan players in Canada.
Solar evaporation of the saturated brine solution is possible at the Dallol project due to the year-round hot temperatures and very little rainfall, in contrast to Saskatchewan. Salts harvested from the ponds at Dallol will be processed by standard flotation to create an MOP product.
The Ethiopia project also hosts shallower deposits, which means the company is not required to drill that deep, allowing for cost savings, added Abasov.
Indeed, total capital expenditures, which include production, transportation and handling and port facilities in Djibouti are estimated at $796 million, including $128 million in contingency. Total operating expenses are estimated at $90.54 per tonne of KCI with a projected payback period of three and a half years.
The PEA report is based on an operation that produces one million tonnes per year of a standard MOP product, over an initial estimated mine life of 30 years. The company also said that there is potential to ramp up operations to two million tonnes of MOP product per year after the third year of full production, with Allana currently considering additional MOP and sulphate of potash (SOP) output as well during the ongoing feasibility study, due out in the third quarter of 2012.
CEO Abasov said the company, after determining solution mining as a preferred method over open pit, is on track with the feasibility study that is now focused on process and design optimization. This includes further reducing costs through the optimization of certain parts of the operation, including cavern sizes and solar evaporation ponds, and the outsourcing of infrastructure expenditures.
In the PEA, transportation costs to Djibouti are based on a company-owned fleet of trucks, while port costs are based on Allana constructing its own port terminal in Djibouti, including product unloading and storage, shipping facilities and supporting infrastructure.
Additional studies to be included in the upcoming feasibility report will include geotechnical drilling for rock mechanic test work, pilot solution mining cavern test work and evaporation pond test work on the salt plain.
Currently, large bore drilling equipment is being mobilized to the site to conduct drilling for water resources and to facilitate the solution mining cavern work. One drill rig is occupied with geotechnical drilling, while the second rig continues with in-fill drilling and resource expansion drilling on the east side of the property, the company said.
An update to the NI 43-101 compliant technical report is expected by the end of the first quarter of 2012, with Abasov expecting substantial additions to resources on the eastern side, and an upgrade to the measured and indicated category on the western side.
Another significant advantage of the Ethiopian potash project is that it will be one of the nearest suppliers of potash to India and China, the two largest importers of potash, with India importing around 6.5 million tonnes of the fertilizer per year.
The strong project attributes and economics have allowed Allana to advance talks with new potential strategic partners for off-take agreements and other partnership structures. Abasov told Proactiveinvestors that it is currently in discussions with large, global potash buyers and agricultural companies, from which it expects developments sometime in the first half of next year.
Allana already has financial support from two strategic investors, IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, and Liberty Metals and Mining.
The remainder of the financing for the capex of the project will come from around $480 million in debt, to be raised from non-commercial, development agencies. Allana has retained BNP Paribas as an advisor on this front, and said the process in now in "full swing".
By the end of the first quarter, CEO Abasov expects to have a "good understanding" of those interested in providing debt financing for the project, which could prove to be a significant catalyst to the company's share price.
Looking to 2012, investors can also expect a steady flow of more drilling results, with the feasibility study expected to move up a certain amount of resources to reserve status.
Total measured and indicated resources now stand at 673 million tonnes, with an average grade of 18.65% KCI, with total inferred mineral resources of 596 million tonnes at a grade of 19.96% KCI.
The company is planning to start production with one million tonnes at the initial stage by 2015, to reach peak production by year 2017. Start of construction at the project for caverns and evaporation ponds is anticipated as early as late 2012, with minimal output expected by the end of 2014.
At a discount rate of 10 percent, after-tax net present value of the potash project jumps to $2.36 billion, and at a discount rate of eight percent, net present value climbs to $3.04 billion.
Based on recent positive drilling results in the western portion of its concession and the positive PEA, Dundee Capital Markets assigned the company a "Top Pick" rating and a 12 month price target of C$2.00, while Fraser Mackenzie rated Allana as a "Strong Buy" with a target price of $1.65.
Allana closed Wednesday at 82 cents on Toronto's main market. Its potash project is comprised of two potash concessions, located in Ethiopia's northeastern Danakil Depression, totaling approximately 160 square kilometres.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/22807/allana-potash-says-updated-resource-new-equity-sources-expected-for-2012-22807.html

[Bobwins]

VANCOUVER, Dec. 21, 2011 /CNW/ - Prima Colombia Hardwood Inc. (TSXV:PCT.V - News) ("Prima" or the "Company") advises that the cutting permits that it had hoped would be received by the end of the current year have not yet been issued. While Prima and the Ministry of Environment of Colombia continue to work constructively together and the permit process is progressing, Prima is unable to determine with any certainty the expected issuance date of the cutting permits required for the start up of its operations. Prima remains prepared to commence operations within 3 months of issuance of the cutting permits.
The Company is in direct discussion with the Minister of the Environment and has not been advised of any issues which might prevent the issuance of the requested permits. The Ministry has been recently reorganized and the Company has been advised that there is a significant back log of resource sector permit applications.
Given the uncertainty of timing in respect of the issuance of the permits and start up of operations, the Company plans to further reduce its monthly cash requirements in an orderly fashion to approximately $200,000 per month in order to preserve the timber opportunity until the permits are obtained. In order to fund this delay and discharge liabilities, the Company intends to sell some of its assets and seek bridge loans secured against its equipment.
About Prima Colombia
Prima Colombia Hardwood Inc. is a TSX Venture Exchange-listed Canadian based forest products company focused on international tropical hardwood timber development, production and marketing. Prima's initial operations are located near Bahia Solano, Department of Choco on the west coast of the Republic of Colombia. All Prima forestry concessions are intended to be operated following the highest standards of sustainable forestry and environmental management. Prima brings over 30 years of forestry experience and dedication to best environmental operating practices and working with local communities and governmental agencies.

[curlews]

MERC, CFX.to -My two pulp stocks have been rebounding nicely the past several sessions. On Friday both were up about 7%. Today Raymond James raised MERC to outperform from Market Perform. Has there been some important change in supply-demand for pulp?

[Bobwins]

I'm surprised they were willing to share that. Must be reasonably certain that permits are progressing. Good to hear. Was tempted last week at .045 but have too many "bargains" presenting themselves lately. Would like to worry about whether I should sell winners!

[CPTMatt]

PCT.V Got an e-mail response from the CFO today. He said that management still expects to get into production by late Q1 and have the permitting issue resolved by the end of this year.

[Bobwins]

Here is a review of the PEA for Allana, aaa.v/allrf.pk:

http://research.dundeesecurities.com/Research/AAA112311.pdf

Their target price is 2.70 vs current C$1.11

[RiddellFool]

AAA.TO someone got wind of this Friday morning, biggest volume day since February on no news. Still I am happy and hope we see $1.50 again soon.

[LearnToTrade]

Allana Potash Announces Positive Preliminary Economic Assessment at its Danakhil Potash Project
4:26p ET November 22, 2011 (Market Wire)

Allana Potash Corp. (TSX: AAA) (OTCQX: ALLRF) ("Allana" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of an independent Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") prepared by Ercosplan Ingenieurgesellschaft Geotechnik und Bergau ("ERCOSPLAN") on its Danakhil Potash Project in Ethiopia (the "Project").

An Investor call is planned to review the PEA at 11 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, November 23, 2011. To register or listen to the call please dial:

International: [phone]

North American: 1 866-696-5910

Toronto area: 416 340 2217

Participant Pass Code: 2686010

The PEA yielded, on an unlevered basis, an after-tax Internal Rate of Return ("IRR") of 36.8 % and an after-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") of US$1.85 Billion based on a 12% discount rate. The PEA is based on commercial operations that produce one million tonnes per year ("MTPY") of a standard Muriate of Potash (MOP) product over an initial estimated operating life of 30 years. The PEA examined open pit and solution mining methods. Following a review of the costs and other operating considerations, solution mining with processing using solar evaporation and standard flotation yielded significant advantages and was therefore the preferred mining method selected for the Project.

Farhad Abasov, President and CEO of Allana commented: "Allana is very excited with the extremely positive preliminary economic assessment of its Danakhil Potash Project, as outlined by ERCOSPLAN. The production CAPEX of about US$664 million (total CAPEX including production, port and other infrastructure of about US$796 million), makes this project one of the lowest cost and potentially highest return potash projects worldwide. Similarly, the production OPEX is very robust at US$70/tonne (total OPEX including production, transportation, port handling and on the ship of about US$90/tonne) and is one of the lowest among greenfield potash projects currently under development. ERCOSPLAN used a conservative discount rate of 12% and modeled the initial production stage one million tonnes of MOP production annually. The production of more MOP and SOP products will be studied during the Feasibility Study. The PEA's extremely positive results give Allana great confidence in advancing its Feasibility Study, which has been underway since August, 2011. The PEA also allows Allana to move forward confidently with its project finance plans and ongoing talks with potential strategic partners."

The mineral resource estimate used for the PEA was completed by ERCOSPLAN in June 2011 and includes in-situ Measured and Indicated Resources of 126 Million tonnes of KCl and Inferred Resources of 119 Million Tonnes of KCl (see news release, June 20, 2011 and "About Allana" section at the end of this news release). Production increase to more than one million tonnes will be evaluated during the Feasibility Study as the management intends to start production with one million tonnes at the initial stage and then ramp it up to two million tonnes.

The key economic highlights of the PEA are outlined in the table below (all dollar amounts are stated in US$):


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
After-tax NPV@12% $1.85 billion
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
After-tax NPV@10% $2.36 billion
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
After-tax NPV@8% $3.04 billion
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
After-tax IRR (based on 30% income tax rate) 36.8%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Total Capital Expenditures (including production, $796 million
port and logistics)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Total Operating Expenditures (Production, $90.54/tonne KCl
transportation, port, FOB on vessel)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Payback period 3.5 years
----------------------------------------------------------------------------




For the purpose of the PEA, capital expenditures (CAPEX) were estimated for three main categories: 1) Production using solution mining, solar evaporation and flotation (Production); 2) Transportation and handling of product between the production site and port; and 3) Port facilities in Djibouti. The Production CAPEX includes costs associated with cavern development, the solar evaporation ponds, brine processing, and infrastructure including power. Solar evaporation of the saturated brine solution is possible at the Danakhil Project due to the year-round hot temperatures averaging 40 degrees C and very little rainfall. Salts harvested from the ponds will be processed by standard flotation to create an MOP product. Transportation CAPEX costs are based on a company owned fleet of trucks and all support such as maintenance. Port CAPEX costs are based on Allana constructing its own port terminal in Djibouti including product unloading and storage, shipping facilities and supporting infrastructure such as power and minor road construction. The table below outlines the estimated capital expenditures in US $ for all categories.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
Estimated Production CAPEX $664 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Transportation/Handling CAPEX $38 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Port CAPEX $93 million
----------------------------------------------------------------------------




Estimated operating expenditures (OPEX) were also calculated for Production, Transportation/Handling, and Port. The OPEX costs in US$ per tonne are outlined in the table below:


-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
Estimated Production OPEX $70.24/tonne
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Transportation/Handling OPEX $8.85/tonne
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Port OPEX $2.88/tonne
----------------------------------------------------------------------------




Estimated general & administrative and contingency costs were also calculated in $US per tonne and are outlined in the table below:


----------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated G&A $5.70/tonne
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated Contingency $2.87/tonne
----------------------------------------------------------------------




The main assumptions used in the PEA are as follows:


Production: One million tonnes MOP per year
Mine life: 30 years
Mining method: Solution mining
Processing: Solar evaporation and flotation
Transport: Trucking to Djibouti
Power: Diesel generation with fuel shipped to site
Water: Water on site
Potash Price: US$500 in 2013
Sustaining CAPEX: US$44 million (before cavern or process design
optimization)




Feasibility Study work is ongoing and on schedule for completion in the 3rd Quarter of 2012. In the PEA, ERCOSPLAN recommends hydrogeological studies to identify large water sources, dissolution testwork, rock mechanical testwork, a pilot solution mining operation and solar evaporation ponds tests. Allana initiated these studies a few months ago and the work is proceeding on schedule. In addition, ERCOSPLAN is evaluating the costs and benefits of increasing production of MOP to two MTPY after the third year of full production. The potential increase would coincide with the planned completion of rail capacity for potash transport in the area.

The PEA, with a target accuracy of +/- 35%, was completed as an initial scope within Allana's full Feasibility Study program currently being undertaken by ERCOSPLAN, a widely recognized world leader in potash exploration techniques and potash mining and processing. In addition to Allana, ERCOSPLAN's clients include some of the largest potash exploration companies and potash producers in the world. A summary of the PEA report will be available under the Company's profile on SEDAR and Allana's website within 45 days of this news release.

About Allana Potash Corp.

Allana is a publicly traded corporation with a focus on the acquisition and development of potash assets internationally with its major focus on a previously explored potash property in Ethiopia. Allana has secured financial support from two significant strategic investors: IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, and Liberty Metals and Mining, a member of the Liberty Mutual Group.

Allana has Measured and Indicated Sylvinite Resources of 97.8 Million Tonnes of 30.0% KCl; Inferred Sylvinite Resource of 108.3 Million tonnes grading 31.3% KCl; Measured + Indicated Kainitite Resources of 284.2 Million tonnes at 19.8% KCl, Inferred Kainitite Resource of 271.2 Million Tonnes of 20.3% KCl; Measured and Indicated Upper Carnallitite Resources of 78.5 Million Tonnes grading 18.4% KCl, Inferred Upper Carnallitite Resource of 85.6 Million Tonnes of 17.1% KCl;

[Bobwins]

Still holding my initial stock. My avg cost is .169 so not a happy holder but still feel the potential is sky high IF they get their approvals. The company has been silent because until they get the permits, they can't log. They have a presentation with an estimated production time of Q1. I doubt they know for sure but that's their guess. Obviously not a really short term estimate or they wouldn't have laid off their Colombian staff and closed down the camp.

It's a big IF at this point but the heavy weight board and big credentials for the logging family behind this tells me they are going to persevere and we will eventually have something of value.

I should average down but have been buying profitable companies or others with better transparency to startup or stock profits.

Bobwins

[CPTMatt]

Bobwins are you still following Prima Hardwood (PCT.V)?

Hasn't been much news out lately except for financing....

[Bobwins]

aaa.v/allrf.pk halted today so tomorrow should be interesting. Relatively low capex compared to underground sasketchewan miners and low operating costs.


November 22, 2011 16:25 ET
Allana Potash Announces Positive Preliminary Economic Assessment at its Danakhil Potash Project
Investor Conference Call Planned for November 23, 2011
- After-tax Net Present Value of US $1.85 billion;
- After-tax Internal Rate of Return of 36.8%;
- Total development capital expenditures including mining, processing facilities, port and logistics infrastructure ("CAPEX") of US $796 million;
- Total operating expenditures ("OPEX") on a per tonne basis (including production, transportation/handling, port, loading costs) FOB on the Vessel of US $90.54
- PEA is based on Annual Production of one million tonnes of MOP per year using solution mining;
- Potential to expand production to two million tonnes per year of MOP;
- SOP production potential to be examined during the ongoing feasibility study.
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 22, 2011) - Allana Potash Corp. (TSX:AAA) (OTCQX:ALLRF) ("Allana" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of an independent Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") prepared by Ercosplan Ingenieurgesellschaft Geotechnik und Bergau ("ERCOSPLAN") on its Danakhil Potash Project in Ethiopia (the "Project").
An Investor call is planned to review the PEA at 11 a.m. (ET) on Wednesday, November 23, 2011. To register or listen to the call please dial:
International: [phone]
North American: 1 866-696-5910
Toronto area: 416 340 2217
Participant Pass Code: 2686010
The PEA yielded, on an unlevered basis, an after-tax Internal Rate of Return ("IRR") of 36.8 % and an after-tax Net Present Value ("NPV") of US$1.85 Billion based on a 12% discount rate. The PEA is based on commercial operations that produce one million tonnes per year ("MTPY") of a standard Muriate of Potash (MOP) product over an initial estimated operating life of 30 years. The PEA examined open pit and solution mining methods. Following a review of the costs and other operating considerations, solution mining with processing using solar evaporation and standard flotation yielded significant advantages and was therefore the preferred mining method selected for the Project.
Farhad Abasov, President and CEO of Allana commented: "Allana is very excited with the extremely positive preliminary economic assessment of its Danakhil Potash Project, as outlined by ERCOSPLAN. The production CAPEX of about US$664 million (total CAPEX including production, port and other infrastructure of about US$796 million), makes this project one of the lowest cost and potentially highest return potash projects worldwide. Similarly, the production OPEX is very robust at US$70/tonne (total OPEX including production, transportation, port handling and on the ship of about US$90/tonne) and is one of the lowest among greenfield potash projects currently under development. ERCOSPLAN used a conservative discount rate of 12% and modeled the initial production stage one million tonnes of MOP production annually. The production of more MOP and SOP products will be studied during the Feasibility Study. The PEA's extremely positive results give Allana great confidence in advancing its Feasibility Study, which has been underway since August, 2011. The PEA also allows Allana to move forward confidently with its project finance plans and ongoing talks with potential strategic partners."
The mineral resource estimate used for the PEA was completed by ERCOSPLAN in June 2011 and includes in-situ Measured and Indicated Resources of 126 Million tonnes of KCl and Inferred Resources of 119 Million Tonnes of KCl (see news release, June 20, 2011 and "About Allana" section at the end of this news release). Production increase to more than one million tonnes will be evaluated during the Feasibility Study as the management intends to start production with one million tonnes at the initial stage and then ramp it up to two million tonnes.
The key economic highlights of the PEA are outlined in the table below (all dollar amounts are stated in US$):
After-tax NPV@12% $1.85 billion
After-tax NPV@10% $2.36 billion
After-tax NPV@8% $3.04 billion
After-tax IRR (based on 30% income tax rate) 36.8%
Estimated Total Capital Expenditures (including production, port and logistics) $796 million
Estimated Total Operating Expenditures (Production, transportation, port, FOB on vessel) $90.54/tonne KCl
Payback period 3.5 years
For the purpose of the PEA, capital expenditures (CAPEX) were estimated for three main categories: 1) Production using solution mining, solar evaporation and flotation (Production); 2) Transportation and handling of product between the production site and port; and 3) Port facilities in Djibouti. The Production CAPEX includes costs associated with cavern development, the solar evaporation ponds, brine processing, and infrastructure including power. Solar evaporation of the saturated brine solution is possible at the Danakhil Project due to the year-round hot temperatures averaging 40°C and very little rainfall. Salts harvested from the ponds will be processed by standard flotation to create an MOP product. Transportation CAPEX costs are based on a company owned fleet of trucks and all support such as maintenance. Port CAPEX costs are based on Allana constructing its own port terminal in Djibouti including product unloading and storage, shipping facilities and supporting infrastructure such as power and minor road construction. The table below outlines the estimated capital expenditures in US $ for all categories.
Estimated Production CAPEX $664 million
Estimated Transportation/Handling CAPEX $38 million
Estimated Port CAPEX $93 million
Estimated operating expenditures (OPEX) were also calculated for Production, Transportation/Handling, and Port. The OPEX costs in US$ per tonne are outlined in the table below:
Estimated Production OPEX $70.24/tonne
Estimated Transportation/Handling OPEX $8.85/tonne
Estimated Port OPEX $2.88/tonne
Estimated general & administrative and contingency costs were also calculated in $US per tonne and are outlined in the table below:
Estimated G&A $5.70/tonne
Estimated Contingency $2.87/tonne
The main assumptions used in the PEA are as follows:
Production: One million tonnes MOP per year
Mine life: 30 years
Mining method: Solution mining
Processing: Solar evaporation and flotation
Transport: Trucking to Djibouti
Power: Diesel generation with fuel shipped to site
Water: Water on site
Potash Price: US$500 in 2013
Sustaining CAPEX: US$44 million (before cavern or process design optimization)
Feasibility Study work is ongoing and on schedule for completion in the 3rd Quarter of 2012. In the PEA, ERCOSPLAN recommends hydrogeological studies to identify large water sources, dissolution testwork, rock mechanical testwork, a pilot solution mining operation and solar evaporation ponds tests. Allana initiated these studies a few months ago and the work is proceeding on schedule. In addition, ERCOSPLAN is evaluating the costs and benefits of increasing production of MOP to two MTPY after the third year of full production. The potential increase would coincide with the planned completion of rail capacity for potash transport in the area.
The PEA, with a target accuracy of +/- 35%, was completed as an initial scope within Allana's full Feasibility Study program currently being undertaken by ERCOSPLAN, a widely recognized world leader in potash exploration techniques and potash mining and processing. In addition to Allana, ERCOSPLAN's clients include some of the largest potash exploration companies and potash producers in the world. A summary of the PEA report will be available under the Company's profile on SEDAR and Allana's website within 45 days of this news release.

[eom7]

LGDI .32 - Legend International Holdings Announces Plans to Begin Phosphate Rock Production and Sales Operations
Date : 11/08/2011 @ 7:59AM
Source : Business Wire
Stock : Legend International Holdings, Inc (LGDI)
Quote : 0.33 0.03 (10.00%) @ 10:26AM

Legend International Holdings Announces Plans to Begin Phosphate Rock Production and Sales Operations
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Legend Intl Hldgs (OTCBB:LGDI)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Tuesday 8 November 2011


Legend International Holdings, Inc (OTCBB: LGDI) is pleased to announce that it plans to begin phosphate rock production and sales operations from its Paradise rock deposits for domestic value added sales and exports.

Legend is confident that given the current phosphate rock market the beginning of production and sales operations is now warranted. This will occur in parallel with continuing Legend's current DAP/MAP development strategy with prospective joint venture partners.

Legend and IFFCO have executed a Shareholders' Option Agreement whereby Legend and IFFCO have agreed on Rock Off-take. Legend is now finalising its strategy for production and sale of rock phosphate in consultation with IFFCO.

The strategy includes:

Legend to potentially utilise high grade material from Paradise North (7.3 million tonnes grading 28.1% P2O5) for direct shipping ore, direct application rock and single superphosphate.
Legend to ramp production up to 1 million tonnes per annum over an agreed timeframe. This would include setting up a project management team, finalising a mining and logistics plan and setting up a beneficiation plant.
Legend to put to tender by 31st January 2012 for construction of up to a 1 million tonne per annum rock concentrate beneficiation plant at Paradise South capable of producing 32-34% P2O5 phosphate rock concentrate.
IFFCO to help Legend facilitate finance for the construction of the beneficiation plant and associated infrastructure.
Rock sale price to be mutually agreed based on the international market at the time of sale.
The rock selling price can be fixed for up to one year periods.
Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-looking statements in this press release are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties including, without limitation, the risks of exploration and development stage projects, risks associated with environmental and other regulatory matters, mining risks and competition and the volatility of mineral prices. Actual results and timetables could vary significantly. Additional information about these and other factors that could affect the Company's business is set forth in the Company's fiscal 2010 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

[Bobwins]

AAA.v/allrf.pk +.11 to C$1.20 Allana has made a nice comeback recently. Still long ways from the peak of C$2.43 but this is still an excellent prospect for a potash mine and should appreciate over time.

[Bobwins]

PCP.v -.01 to C$.07

Good news and bad news. BMO is a quality adviser to help them market the deposit. Bad news is that they need more time to complete the BFS with all options explored.



Plains Creek retains BMO Capital Markets as financial advisor and advises that the Bankable Feasibility Study will be extended to April 2012
VANCOUVER, Oct. 18, 2011 /CNW/ - Plains Creek Phosphate Corporation ("Plains Creek", the "Company") (TSXV: PCP) is pleased to announce that it has retained BMO Capital Markets as its financial advisor to assist the Company in obtaining a strategic partner and offtake agreements as part of the development of the Farim Phosphate Project ("Farim", the "Project"). The Company continues to advance the Project towards completion of its Bankable Feasibility Study in April 2012.

"We are very excited about the opportunity to engage BMO Capital Markets as our financial advisor to assist in the ongoing development of our phosphate project. We have received considerable attention in regards to potential strategic partners and off-take arrangements for the Farim phosphate project and believe it is advantageous to seek a financial advisor in this endeavour. BMO has a strong track record especially in the Fertilizer sector." said Glenn Laing, President and CEO of Plains Creek.

Bankable Feasibility Update

Previous studies of the proposed mining method for the Project have been based on a wet mining method of using dredges to excavate the unconsolidated sand / silt overburden and the underlying phosphate horizon.

Investigations by Golder Associates, the Company's mining engineering consultants, have recognised that a dry mining method using trucks, shovels and draglines may be a more efficient and more practical method of mining the Farim phosphate deposit. In order to confirm the dry mining option recommendations it will be necessary to carry out additional hydrogeological and geotechnical drilling and field work in addition to the work that has already been carried out to date as part of the Bankable Feasibility Study. Due to the rainy season that is currently underway at Farim, access to potential drill sites is difficult to complete the necessary drilling. As a result, drilling programs will restart in mid October 2011 with expected completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study on April 2012.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

(signed) "Carson Phillips"
Carson Phillips
Director

[Bobwins]

AAA.v/ALLRF.pk +.04 to C$.98

ALLANA POTASH DRILLING INTERSECTS SIGNIFICANT POTASH OF 40% KCL OVER 2.6 METRES IN HOLE 28
10/18/2011 12:49:24 PM - Market Wire

Allana Potash Drilling Intersects Significant Potash of 40% KCL Over 2.6 Metres in Hole 28
- Hole 28 Intersects Two Prominent Zones of Potash Mineralization - Hole 28 Intersects 40% KCL Over 2.6 Metres of Sylvinite - Hole 28 Intersects 22% KCL Over 8.4 Metres of Kainitite
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Oct. 18, 2011) - Allana Potash Corp. (TSX:AAA) (OTCQX:ALLRF) ("Allana" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has intersected three zones of strong potash mineralization in Hole DK-11-28 ("Hole 28"). Hole 28 is located in the northwestern portion of the concession block and was targeted to test potash mineralization west of Hole 15. Hole 28 intersected a strong Sylvinite Zone at a depth of 198.8 metres which yielded 40.27% KCl over 3.56 metres. A robust Kainitite Zone was also intersected deeper in the hole at a depth of 266.43 metres and returned 21.98 % KCl over 8.39 metres.

Farhad Abasov, President and CEO, commented: "Allana continues to be encouraged by the continuity and strength of potash mineralization in the northwestern portion of the property as exhibited by the results of Hole 28. This area continues to yield high grade potash in the Sylvinite and Kainitite zones which management believes will allow Allana to upgrade mineral resources from Inferred to Measured and Indicated categories as well as add to the Inferred category. The potash zones remain open to the north and northeast towards Hole 9 which bodes well for expansion of the resource. The relatively shallow and high grade nature of the Sylvinite Zone make this area ideal for solution mining with recovery through solar evaporation."

Hole 28 is part of a drilling program in the north designed to test extensions of potash mineralization and allow more material to be included in the Measured and Indicated mineral resource categories. The results for Hole 28 are presented in the table below. True widths of the potash zones are estimated to be very similar to drilled widths due to the flat-lying nature of the potash horizons. The zones of potash mineralization are outlined in the following table:

HOLE ID FROM (m) TO (m) WIDTH (m)* KCL (%) ZONE
DK-11-28 198.74 201.30 2.56 40.27 Sylvinite
266.43 274.82 8.39 21.95 Kainitite
*Drilled width
Hole 28 was drilled vertically and was collared approximately 750 metres west of Hole 15 (see attached figure). Hole 28 is located in the northwestern part of the concession block west of Hole 15 and east of the historic Musley Deposit suggesting that potash mineralization at Musley continues and is consistent at least to Hole 15. Previously released Allana drill holes in this region yielded very high sylvinite grades (see attached figure) and the results of Hole 28 suggest continuity of potash throughout the region. The potash zones remain open north and northeast of Hole 28, indicating good potential to increase mineral resources in this area.

Exploration drilling is continuing in western part of the property (Hole 36) as part of the infill drilling program that management has designed to add mineral resources and increase confidence in current resources by reducing the spacing between holes allowing more material to qualify for Measured and Indicated mineral resource categories. Samples from holes 29-35 are undergoing analysis or are en route to the laboratory in Saskatoon, Canada.

In addition, Allana is pleased to announce that it has received TSX approval and issued 1,400,000 common share purchase warrants to BNP Paribas, pursuant to their engagement to provide financial advisory services to Allana (see news release dated October 3, 2011) (the "Warrants"). Each Warrant is exercisable to acquire one common share of Allana at CAD $0.94 per warrant until October 18, 2016. The Warrants vest and become exercisable upon the completion of various milestones. The Warrants and common shares issuable upon the exercise of the Warrants are subject to a regulatory hold period until February 19, 2012.

About Allana Potash Corp.

Allana is a publicly traded corporation with a focus on the acquisition and development of potash assets internationally with its major focus on a previously explored potash property in Ethiopia. Allana has secured financial support from two significant strategic investors: IFC, a member of World Bank Group, and Liberty Metals and Mining, a member of Liberty Mutual Group. Allana has Measured and Indicated Sylvinite Resources of 97.8 Million Tonnes of 30.0% KCl; Inferred Sylvinite Resource of 108.3 Million tonnes grading 31.3% KCl; Measured + Indicated Kainitite Resources of 284.2 Million tonnes at 19.8% KCl, Inferred Kainitite Resource of 271.2 Million Tonnes of 20.3% KCl; Measured and Indicated Upper Carnallitite Resources of 78.5 Million Tonnes grading 18.4% KCl, Inferred Upper Carnallitite Resource of 85.6 Million Tonnes of 17.1% KCl; Measured+Indicated Lower Carnallitite Resources of 212.6 Million Tonnes of 12.0% KCl, Inferred Lower Carnallitite Resource of 130.7 Million Tonnes grading 11.7% KCl. Allana has approximately 197.5 million shares outstanding and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "AAA".

Quality Control and Quality Assurance

Allana employees follow standard operating and quality assurance procedures intended to ensure that all sampling techniques and sample results meet international reporting standards. Procedures for handling core samples begin with securing the potash-bearing HQ-NQ-sized core at the drill site in plastic poly-tubing which is then thermally sealed. Core is placed in plastic core boxes and transported to Allana's camp for geological logging, geotechnical logging and photographing. Significant intervals are dry cut in half using a specially modified tungsten carbide bladed band-saw. Half core samples are then double bagged and thermally sealed prior to transporting to Addis Ababa by Allana personnel. In this initial phase, halite blanks are randomly inserted into the sample stream at a rate of 1 in 20 and sent for analysis with the core samples. The remaining core is re-sealed in plastic poly-tubing and the core boxes secured at Allana's exploration camp. Upon arrival in Addis Ababa core samples are stored at Allana's small warehouse facility and then taken to the Ethiopian Ministry of Mines & Energy where permission is obtained to export the samples. The bagged samples are then carefully packed into boxes and shipped via DHL to the Saskatchewan Research Council in Saskatoon. This sampling procedure was initiated by ERCOSPLAN Ingenieurgesellschaft Geotechnik und Bergbau mbH, Allana's potash consulting firm, supervised by Allana's Ethiopian based Project Manager Jason Wilkinson, M.Sc., and periodically reviewed by Allana's Senior Vice President of Exploration, Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P. Geo.

Allana is utilizing SRC's Potash ICP Analysis package designed for multi-element analysis of potash samples. Upon arrival at SRC Geoanalytical Laboratories, core samples are jaw crushed to 60 % @ -2mm and 100 g sub sample is split out using a riffler and transferred to vials. The subsample is pulverized to 90 % @ -106 microns using a puck and ring grinding mill to create a pulp. The grinding mills are cleaned between groups using Quintus quartz. The pulp is then transferred to a labelled plastic snap top vial. An aliquot of pulp is placed in a test-tube with 15 ml of 30°C DI water. The sample is shaken. The soluble solution is then analyzed by ICP-OES. The method is suitable for the soluble analysis of commercial potash (Sylvite). The soluble solution is then analysed by ICP-MS. In addition, samples are analysed for FeO (wt%), Br and Cl by MS, plus insolubles. SRC Geoanalytical Laboratories has been certified by the Standards Council of Canada (SCC) to conform to the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025:2005 (CAN-P-4E).

Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P. Geo., Allana's Senior VP Exploration, is a Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical information presented in this release

[JUST 10-11-12]

holding long..for tax purposes.

have all my shares.

waiting for twenty bucks plus.

Keith

[Bobwins]

Allana is having a long overdue bounce today. +.08 to C$.81 after days/weeks of constant falling. AAA.v was over C$2 in June/July.

Fundamentals keep improving as Allana appears to be a legitimate candidate to actually mine the potash rather than just sellout.

We'll see if the rally lasts. Held it over the top and down. Should have sold out and bought back at these bargain prices but hindsight is always 100%.

[Max Power]

AAA/ALLRF news

Allana Potash Adopts Shareholders Rights Plan

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/allana-potash-adopts-shareholders-rights-plan-tsx-aaa-1565948.htm

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Sept. 27, 2011) - Allana Potash Corp. (TSX:AAA)(OTCQX:ALLRF) ("Allana" or the "Company") today announced that it has adopted a Shareholder Rights Plan (the "Plan").

The objectives of the Plan are to ensure, to the extent possible, that all shareholders of the Company are treated equally and fairly in connection with any take-over bid for the Company. The Plan discourages discriminatory, coercive or unfair take-overs of the Company and gives the Company's board of directors time if, in the circumstances, the board determines it is appropriate to take such time, to pursue alternatives to maximize shareholder value in the event an unsolicited take-over bid is made for all or a portion of the outstanding common shares of the Company (the "Common Shares").

In order to implement the adoption of the Plan, the Board authorized the issuance of one right (a "Right") in respect of each Common Share outstanding at the close of business on September 23, 2011 (the "Record Time"). In addition, the Board authorized the issuance of one Right in respect of each additional Common Share issued after the Record Time. The Rights trade with and are represented by Common Share certificates, including certificates issued prior to the Record Time. Until such time as the Rights separate from the Common Shares and become exercisable, Rights certificates will not be distributed to shareholders.

If a person, or a group acting in concert, acquires (other than pursuant to an exemption available under the Plan) Beneficial Ownership (as defined in the Plan) of 20% or more of the Common Shares, Rights (other than those held by such acquiring person which will become void) will separate from the Common Shares and permit the holder thereof to purchase Common Shares at a 50% discount to their market price. At any time prior to the Rights becoming exercisable, the Board may waive the operation of the Plan with respect to certain events before they occur.

The issuance of the Rights will not change the manner in which shareholders currently trade their Common Shares.

The Plan is subject to the final approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange, and requires confirmation by the Company's shareholders on or before March 23, 2012, being within six months of the Plan's effective date. If the Plan is not confirmed by shareholders, the Plan and all outstanding Rights will terminate and be void and of no further force and effect.

Although the Company is in talks with various strategic parties the Plan is not being proposed in response to, or in contemplation of, any specific take-over bid for the Company. The Board did not adopt the Plan to prevent a take-over of the Company, to secure the continuance of management or the directors in their respective offices or to deter fair offers for the Common Shares.

About Allana Potash Corp.

Allana is a publicly traded corporation with a focus on the acquisition and development of potash assets internationally with its major focus on a previously explored potash property in Ethiopia. Allana has secured financial support from two significant strategic investors: IFC, a member of World Bank Group, and Liberty Metals and Mining, a member of Liberty Mutual Group. Allana has Measured and Indicated Sylvinite Resources of 97.8 Million Tonnes of 30.0% KCl; Inferred Sylvinite Resource of 108.3 Million tonnes grading 31.3% KCl; Measured + Indicated Kainitite Resources of 284.2 Million tonnes at 19.8% KCl, Inferred Kainitite Resource of 271.2 Million tonnes of 20.3% KCl; Measured+Indicated Upper Carnallitite Resources of 78.5 Million tonnes grading 18.4% KCl, Inferred Upper Carnallitite Resource of 85.6 Million tonnes of 17.1% KCl; Measured+Indicated Lower Carnallitite Resources of 212.6 Million tonnes of 12.0% KCl, Inferred Lower Carnallitite Resource of 130.7 Million tonnes grading 11.7% KCl. Allana has approximately 197.5 million shares outstanding and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "AAA".

Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P. Geo., Allana's Senior VP Exploration, is a Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical information presented in this release.

[Max Power]

Sterling Updates Phosphate Development in China Date : 09/19/2011 @ 9:10AM Source : MarketWire Stock : Sterling Group Ventures Inc. (SGGV) Quote : 0.1 -0.01 (-9.09%) @ 4:27PM

More SGGV Messages Latest Sterling Group Vntrs (QB), SGGV Messages

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Sterling Group Vntrs (QB) (USOTC:SGGV) Intraday Stock Chart Today : Monday 19 September 2011

Sterling Updates Phosphate Development in China

Sterling Group Ventures, Inc. (OTCQB: SGGV) (FRANKFURT: GD7) (the "Company") is pleased to provide the following corporate update.

The Company has opened an office in Chenxi County and signed a technical service agreement with Huaihua Xiangxi Goldmine Design and Research Co. Ltd (Huaihua). Both Huaihua and Mr. Qin of Sterling have visited the Hongyu phosphate project site in Hunan province. A mine design for the project as well as a mine safety evaluation is being prepared. These studies are expected to be completed around the end of October, 2011. The studies have to be approved by different levels of government before work can begin. If all approvals including water and electricity agreements, are received promptly, the start of mine construction and immediate production from development headings could begin around the end of the year.

The first stage of the mining plan will be 100,000 tons per year. Based on preliminary plan, the development method is expected to use an adit or adits driven on the ore to provide access and raises to develop the ore. The room and pillar mining method will be used with the mine divided into sections. The run of mine ore is marketable and will be shipped to the railhead by trucks.

The phosphate is a sedimentary deposit and occurs at the Jinjiadong Formation of Upper Sinian. The dip of the orebody is SEE at about 25 degrees. The phosphorite bed is made of numerous siliceous phosphorite layers with thickness mostly 2- 6m. The grade is 19.8% P2O5 according to the Geological Exploration Institute of Chemical Industry, Hunan Province.

The Company has also contracted to conduct a test to make biological phosphate fertilizer using phosphate ore from the Company's property. The key is culturing appropriate bacteria which can decompose phosphate. This test is expected to be completed around the end of December. Biological phosphorus fertilizer is a new fertilizer market mainly used in organic farming such as organic vegetables.

This release has been reviewed and approved by Norman L. Tribe, P.Eng., a qualified person pursuant to National Instrument 43-101.

A comprehensive NI 43-101 report on the project is being prepared by Norm Tribe, P.Eng, geological consultant and should be completed in the next several weeks.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Raoul Tsakok, Chairman & CEO

For further information, please check the Company's SEC filings.

Any forward-looking statement in this press release is made pursuant to the "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that actual results may differ substantially from such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, economic and political factors, product prices and changes in international and local markets, as well as the inherent risks of the mining related business. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Cautionary Note to U. S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Measure, Indicated, and Inferred Resources and Reserves. Statements regarding resources and reserves have been based on audits conducted under Chinese methods of calculation which the SEC guidelines strictly prohibit in its filings.

Contacts:

Sterling Group Ventures, Inc.

Raoul Tsakok

Chairman

[phone]

[phone] (FAX)

Sterling Group Ventures, Inc.

Richard Shao, PhD

President

[phone]

[phone] (FAX)

Sterling Group Ventures, Inc.

Robert Smiley, JD

Director

[phone]

[phone] (FAX)

[e-mail]

www.sterlinggroupventures.com

[Bobwins]

Peak Phosphate

Resource Investing News

Wed, Sep 14, 2011 Feature Articles, Uncategorized
Post by Leia Toovey, Resource Senior Reporter
By Leia Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News



The aftermath of the Hubbert Peak Theory has sparked concerns over peak phosphorus. When applied to phosphorus, the Hubbert’s peak theory of has created quite a stir, spawning a great deal of animated discussion and scientific analysis into the implications of peak phosphate.
While potash (potassium) seems to garner more interest from the investment community, agronomists claim that neither potash or nitrogen fertilizers are threatened with an impending supply shortage, whereas phosphorus is. Phosphorus, a non-renewable resource obtained from mining and processing phosphate rocks, is essential due to its use as a fertilizer. It is one of the three macro-nutrients that crops require in large quantities in order to grow.
As the world’s population grows and populations in the emerging economies start eating more protein- rich diets, the depletion rate of phosphate reserves will accelerate. Proponents of peak phosphate claim that future generations will ultimately face problems in obtaining enough of the fertilizer to exist. While the exact timing may be disputed, it is already apparent that the quantity of remaining phosphate rock reserves is decreasing. According to Foreign Policy magazine “Our dwindling supply of phosphorus, a primary component underlying the growth of global agricultural production, threatens to disrupt food security across the planet during the coming century. This is the gravest natural resource shortage you’ve never heard of.”
The basis of the Hubbert Peak Theory is that the rate of production of a resource follows a bell-shape curve. Current estimates suggest that we will “run out” of phosphorus in 50 to 130 years. This date is conveniently far enough in the future that immediate action does not seem necessary; however, as we know from peak oil analysis, trouble begins not when we “run out” of a resource, but when production peaks. From that point onward, the resource becomes more difficult to extract and more expensive. In the case of phosphate, dwindling supplies will result in skyrocketing food costs and, of course, political and economic instability. The problem of dwindling supplies is expected to be exacerbated by the fact that only four countries, Morocco, China, South Africa and Jordan control 80 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves.
Solutions
Professor Brian Chambers, a leading UK soil scientist, is calling on the government to respond to the threat of peak phosphate by recycling the nutrient from household compost, livestock and human manure and municipal waste. “As imported rock phosphate becomes more expensive and may one day run out, there could be a solution much closer to home. Our primary source – rock phosphate – is mined for use in fertilizers and that’s expected to peak around 2030. It means that right at the time we need to be doubling our food-growing capacity to feed the rising global population, we’ll be starting to run out of phosphorus. It’s a nightmare scenario,” said Chambers. The solution could lie in recovering phosphate from organic waste that currently ends up being sent to landfill. The UK produces about 100 million tonnes of organic waste each year, which could generate up to seven percent of the UK’s renewable energy by 2020, according to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Chambers believes that more than 50 percent of the UK’s total phosphate requirement could come from organic sources which would not only delay “peak phosphate” but would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save the agricultural industry between US $31.5 million to US$47.3 million a year.
Rebuttal
Many experts do not agree with the “peak phosphate” theory. Counter arguments center on pointing out loopholes in the models used to estimate the timeline for peak phosphate. The major shortcomings of these models are the fact that they have either not been able to precisely establish when reserves will be exhausted, or they fail to account for potential changes in demand. The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) recently carried out a study that reassessed the phosphate rock reserves and resources of phosphate-producing countries. This study, released late last year, concluded that global phosphate rock resources suitable for phosphate-based fertilizers were far more extensive than previously estimated. According to the study, at current extraction rates, these resources would be available for several centuries. Then, earlier this year, the United States Geological Survey dramatically increased its reserve estimate for Morocco and Western Sahara from 5.7 billion metric tonnes to 50 billion metric tonnes.
So far, research into peak phosphate has centered on a possible peak in phosphorus supply, however, a potential peak in phosphorus demand should also be investigated. Since phosphorus accumulates in agricultural soils, phosphorus requirements do not increase linearly with agricultural production. Another largely ignored fact is that the predictions of “peak phosphorus” ignore new supplies from phosphorus recycling and re-use. The International Fertilizer Association has established an industry-wide task force on phosphate fertilizer demand and will continue to further the understanding of the peak phosphate concept through examining different consumption scenarios.

[Max Power]

SGGV Video:

[kramce]

What is happening to AAA.TO ALLRF today?

[maxluke1]

ISCHY - Oh and sorry it isn't really a small cap, this is the only agriculture board that I know of. It does have some nice volatility though, so it has some similarities to a small cap. Forgot to mention that Potash Corp. owns about 10% of it as well.

[maxluke1]

ISCHY - Israel Chemical Corporation. I find this one a bit interesting. It pays a decent dividend and is leveraged well into phosphate as well as phosphate, which makes it a bit more dynamic.

[Max Power]

News: Allana Potash (AAA.tsx/ALLRF.otcqx)

Allana Potash to Commence Trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/allana-potash-to-commence-trading-on-the-toronto-stock-exchange-tsx-tsx-venture-aaa-1558698.htm

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Sept. 8, 2011) - Allana Potash Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AAA) (OTCQX:ALLRF) ("Allana") is pleased to announce its common shares will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) at market open on Friday, September 9, 2011. The Company's stock symbol will remain "AAA".

Farhad Abasov, Allana's President and CEO, stated: "We are proud to join the senior Canadian exchange at this critical stage of our development. This is also a very important event for Ethiopia as Allana has become the first company with an Ethiopian mining asset to be listed on the TSX, the pre-eminent exchange for global mining companies. We believe trading on the TSX will enhance our already strong trading liquidity and attract a broader investor base to Allana."

About Allana Potash Corp.

Allana is a publicly traded corporation with a focus on the acquisition and development of potash assets internationally with its major focus on a previously explored potash property in Ethiopia. Allana has secured financial support from two significant strategic investors: IFC, a member of World Bank Group, and Liberty Metals and Mining, PLC, a subsidiary of Liberty Mutual Group. Allana has Measured and Indicated Sylvinite Resources of 97.8 million tonnes of 30.0% KCl; Inferred Sylvinite Resource of 108.3 million tonnes grading 31.3% KCl; Measured and Indicated Kainitite Resources of 284.2 million tonnes at 19.8% KCl, Inferred Kainitite Resource of 271.2 million tonnes of 20.3% KCl; Measured and Indicated Upper Carnallitite Resources of 78.5 million tonnes grading 18.4% KCl, Inferred Upper Carnallitite Resource of 85.6 million tonnes of 17.1% KCl; Measured and Indicated Lower Carnallitite Resources of 212.6 million tonnes of 12.0% KCl, Inferred Lower Carnallitite Resource of 130.7 million tonnes grading 11.7% KCl. Allana has approximately 196.5 million shares outstanding and effective September 9, 2011, trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "AAA".

Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P. Geo., Allana's Senior VP Exploration, is a Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical information presented in this release.

[Bobwins]

PCT.v/PCTZF.pk +.02 to C$.11 900K+ traded

Prima Colombia Hardwood is rallying. Maybe some of the deep pockets on the board are buying shares. The strength of the board is one of the reasons why I held this stock even after the big drop.

Talked with IR last week and he gave me a good overview. The local government was corrupt so the company was initially glad when the Federal Environmental Ministry took over. But the Feds cancelled their cutting permits and they don't know how long the re applications will take. They were 5 days from starting operations when the cancellations happened. They have all their equipment in Colombia and are ready to restart on short notice.

The company has confidence that they can harvest timber sustainably. They take only selected hardwoods and only from forests where the removed tree makes up a small percentage of the species within that stand of trees. They rely on Mother Nature to continue to grow that species because they have only removed 10% of any particular species. The removed trees help the remaining trees because of increased sunlight and nutrients.

This type of logging has been proven over a long period of time in Canada and the principals here have exceptional knowledge and experience in helicopter logging.

The contracts they have signed so far are trials so the buyers can see the quality and reliability of PCT. However the IR said that log buyers in Asia have told the company that if they can produce the logs, they have demand to buy.

Waiting for permits in Colombia.

Bobwins

[olivernoyes]

Check out the 5 day chart of IPSU...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IPSU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= looks like it's beginning to bounce back from overdone...

[rocketeer357]

FED ramping up

EPC Drilling Intersects Potash Horizons on Its 481km^2 Danakil Project, Ethiopia

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Aug 22, 2011 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Ethiopian Potash Corp. (the "Company " or "EPC") CA:FED +1.37% CA:FED.WS +8.70% is pleased to announce that it has completed five (5) holes and drilling of Hole 6 is ongoing with total drilling through 1,000 metres to date, of the planned 15,000 metre diamond drill program on its 481km2 Danakil Project, Ethiopia.

All of the holes intersected the regional Danakil Potash Formation and all holes intersected potash mineralization.

The holes were drilled along the western edge of the Danakil and targeted the on strike continuation of the Musley potash deposit. The drill core has been logged and selected intersections have been reviewed by Ercosplan who confirmed the intersection as being part of the Regional Danakil Potash bearing sequence and that potash mineralization was observed in the drill core. The drill core has been sampled and the samples are being processed for analysis. Drilling is continuing is the southwest corner of the Property in an area of historic drilling.

Mr. Wahl President and CEO of EPC stated "I am extremely pleased with the drilling results and looks forward to receiving the assay results which will be released on receipt. Ethiopian Potash looks forward to having a steady stream of news to disseminate in the Autumn."

About Ethiopian Potash Corp.

Ethiopian Potash Corp. CA:FED +1.37% CA:FED.WS +8.70% is a Canadian company based in Toronto, Ontario, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ethiopian Potash controls 481 sq km of shallow mineralization potash development concessions in the fairway of the Danakil Depression, Ethiopia. The Company has an existing 128 mil tonne resource at 21% potash and is intent on aggressively fast-tracking its properties to production.

Forward-Looking Information

This press release may contain forward-looking statements based on assumptions, uncertainties and management's best estimates of future events. All statements that address future activities, events or developments that the Company believes, expects or anticipates will or may occur are forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is based upon assumptions by management that are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties beyond the Company's control. There can be no assurance that outcomes anticipated in the forward-looking information will occur and actual results may differ materially for a variety of reasons. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The Company undertakes no obligations to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking information, except as may be required by law. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to the Company's filings with the Canadian securities regulators available on www.sedar.com .

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

[Bobwins]

Resource Investing News
Your source for unbiased, independent news and information on the resource market

Phosphate Producers Poised to Benefit from Tight Grain Market

Wed, Aug 17, 2011

Feature Articles, Uncategorized
Post by Leia Toovey, Resource Senior Reporter

By Leia Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News

inShare

The recent earnings season was record-setting for many fertilizer producers, and despite a shaky global economy analysts expect that high-profits will continue into the foreseeable future. High-earnings are a result of record sales volumes, and recovering fertilizer prices. The price of fertilizers closely tracks the price of grains because as grains prices rise, so does the incentive for farmers to apply fertilizer to maximize yields. Grain prices have skyrocketed in the past year, with wheat prices jumping 11 percent, corn prices 69 percent, and soybeans 31 percent. When comparing fertilizers, phosphates and potash typically have a longer term impact on yields, and therefore are benefiting from the rapid rise in grains prices.

While phosphate prices have advanced about 11 percent in the past year, they are not keeping pace with the increase in grains prices. This, according to many analysts, provides ample reason for a more rapid ascent in phosphate prices. Analysts are already predicting that demand for fertilizers may experience so much growth that shortages become a problem. Shortages of potash and phosphate and increasing soil erosion are “the real long-term problems we face,” Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., wrote in a report last month.

Phosphate producers are increasing output, however, this is not expected to offer downside pressure on prices as the new capacity is not expected to meet rising demand. “New supply for phosphate fertilizers from Northern Africa and the Middle East is expected to be absorbed without pushing prices for the next 12 months,” according to Horst Hueniken, Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Inc. The quality levels of many crops are below their five-year average level. Should this pattern continue as the growing season wears on, it could spell lower crop volumes this year, but higher volumes next year, driven by even more planted acres in 2012. The industry’s cyclical upswing is not over,” Hueniken said.

Company news

CF Industries Holdings Inc.’s (NYSE:CF) second-quarter earnings soared on double-digit phosphate and nitrogen sales growth. CF reported a profit of $487.4 million, or $6.75 a share, up from $105.1 million, or $1.54 a share, a year earlier. The latest quarter included $14.2 million loss on derivatives while the prior-year results included $113.7 million of acquisition-related costs and a $15.1 million gain on derivatives. Total revenue rose 38 percent to $1.8 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a per-share profit of $5.95 on revenue of $1.77 billion. Phosphate sales rose 60 percent as volume jumped 17.

There was a dark horse in the recent earnings season. Phosphate Holdings, Inc. (PINK:PHOS) reported a second quarter 2011 loss of $1.8 million, due to operating issues While the loss was substantial, the company has narrowed its losses compared to recent quarters. In the same time period last year, the phosphate producer lost $4.9 million. Total net sales for the second quarter of 2011 were $80.5 million, a 30 percent increase from total net sales of $62.1 million for the second quarter of 2010. The average sales price per short ton of DAP during the second quarter of 2011 was $542.54, compared to the prior-year period average sales price of $400.26. During the second quarter, the company sold 146,213 tonnes of DAP, compared with 152,434 tonnes of DAP sold in the second quarter of 2010. Commenting on the results, Robert E. Jones, Chief Executive Officer, said, “Operating issues were the dominant theme of our second quarter of 2011. We simply failed to achieve the production levels of sulfuric acid and DAP necessary for a positive quarter. The primary factors negatively impacting our production included phosphate rock shortages due to logistical issues in Morocco which idled our phosphoric acid and DAP plants for nine days; damaged heat exchangers which limited instantaneous rates to approximately 1,000 to 1,200 tons per day in both sulfuric acid plants; and a scheduled maintenance turnaround of one of our sulfuric acid plants which required 19 days.”

[cartonet]

Nah, they can feed out of air, lol

I am positive you said you lightened up some (half?) FED at some point. Wish I had done the same when it traded over a buck. But the romantic (following in love with a story) in me screwed again the pragmatic bean counter in me.... ah, the eternal story..

[Bobwins]

Haven't sold any FED. Still holding warrants I bought at C$.5369. Potash hasn't been hot lately. Guess they figure the Chinese and Indians don't need food.

[cartonet]

FED is about to release a drilling update this week, think you could buy back cheaper some of those that you sold higher. JMHO

[Bobwins]

Yes, I sold and that's usually good for a rally of at least 15%!

Got tired of seeing the stock price drip,drip,drop. I will try to find something else to take it's place, hopefully with better price action.

[eom7]

LGDI up 15% - any idea why?

[Bobwins]

Potash Market Prepares for Supply Shortages
Email Print
Thu, Jul 28, 2011 Feature Articles
Post by Leia Toovey, Resource Reporter
By Leia Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News


inShare
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT) released their second-quarter earnings on Thursday, which surpassed analysts’ expectations and set an all-time record for earnings per quarter. Second-quarter net income rose to $840 million, compared to the $480 million earned in the same time period of 2010. Second-quarter earnings per share were $0.96, topping analysts’ expectations of $0.85, and topping second-quarter 2010 earnings by 81 percent. Total revenue for the quarter was $2.33 billion compared to the projected $1.98 billion. Two-thirds of the company’s earnings came from potash sales, according to Potash Corp CEO Bill Doyle.
In Thursdays’ earnings conference call, Doyle opened the conversation by saying, “The quarter reflected the strengthening fertilizer market and elevated us to the strongest quarter in our company’s history.” Doyle also added that in the second quarter, fertilizer marketing arm Canpotex had its second- best month in history, even though the company was unable to come to a supply agreement with one of its top customers— India.
Potash Corp was able to post the record high earnings due to skyrocketing potash prices supported by insatiable demand. “The continuation of strong fertilizer demand combined with the limitations of global production, especially in potash, resulted in tight fertilizer markets and rising prices for our products,” said Doyle. The company’s potash production hit a record of 2.6 million tonnes in the second quarter.
Doyle sees the potash market’s positive trajectory continuing for the foreseeable future. Doyle said that Potash Corp is entering a period of “unprecedented opportunity.” The potash market is being buoyed by record-high grains prices and dangerously low stockpiles. With potash supplies so tight, and the demand so high, Doyle added that there is a fundamental shift occurring in the potash market, with purchasers more willing to come to the table and settle long-term contracts to meet their pressing need.
As a sign of things to come, there are reports that Canpotex’s potash supplies are fully committed for the third-quarter. Doyle claims that Potash Corp’s domestic supplies are also sold out for the third quarter. On the back of a stellar second-quarter, Potash Corp also upgraded their third-quarter projections. The company now expects third-quarter earnings in the range of $0.80 to $1.00 a share. According to Reuters, analysts had forecast an average third-quarter EPS of $0.86. Potash Corp also hiked its full-year earnings forecast to $3.40 to $3.80 a share, up from its previous projections of $3.00 to $3.40.
Potash Corp is already implementing expansion plans to meet the future demand. “Meeting the worlds growing demand will be one of the biggest challenges in our industry in the years ahead,” said Doyle. Doyle forecasts an “era of tight supply/demand fundamentals” for the potash market, and expects potash production capabilities will be maxed out in the next few years.
Doyle is definitely not alone in his bullish stance on the fertilizer industry. Last week, Bloomberg quoted Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) CEO Jim Prokopanko as saying Canpotex’s “cupboard is bare.” The latest industry data indicate that at the end of June, North American potash inventory levels at the producer level were 26 percent below the average of the last five years.
In Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index, released this past Wednesday, economics VP and commodity market specialist Patricia Mohr voiced her bullish stance on the potash industry. Potash prices at the Port of Vancouver climbed to $490 per tonne in July, and another $30-$40 per tonne increase is likely before autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the price index. “With strong demand in most of Asia and Latin America, producers may aim for a spot potash price (granular grade) approaching $600 cost and freight by late 2011,”added Mohr. The Commodity Price Index showed that spot potash prices for standard grade (FOB) rose from US$445 per tonne in May to US$481 in June and US$490 in July. The likelihood of a successful third price increase is supported by the fact that inventories are already “razor thin” and the fact that both BPC and Canpotex have successively raised prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia twice this year.
Disclosure: I, Leia Toovey, have equity interests in Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan.

[Bobwins]

pcp.v C$.12

Peak Phosphate Ahead?
Today's Edition
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By Chris Wood
Dear Reader,

If you ask a biologist or organic chemist what the necessary elements for life are here on earth, he or she will probably reply "CHON," meaning carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen. But then the answer will quickly be qualified with, "And you need sulfur and phosphorus too."

It's that last element, phosphorus, that I'd like to discuss today because in addition to being an essential component of DNA, RNA, and ATP/ADP, it also plays a major role in our global food supply - and we may be facing a shortage that could spell the end of cheap food.

To quote a recent article from Foreign Policy magazine:

Our dwindling supply of phosphorus, a primary component underlying the growth of global agricultural production, threatens to disrupt food security across the planet during the coming century. This is the gravest natural resource shortage you've never heard of.
Phosphorus is one of the three macronutrients that crops require in large amounts in order to grow (the other two being nitrogen and potassium, neither of which is facing a supply issue). In nature, we generally find phosphorus in the form of a phosphate, in which each phosphorus atom is bonded to four oxygen atoms. Phosphate is present at relatively high concentrations in "phosphate rock," the geological deposits that are mined in fertilizer production. It's this phosphate rock that many now worry is in short supply. The term "peak phosphate" has even crept its way into the agricultural sector's lexicon.

Studies from the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI) estimate that peak phosphate could occur by 2030, and that high-grade reserves could be depleted in as few as 50 years.

Obviously, fertilizers are vitally important to food production, and a phosphate shortage could lead to skyrocketing agricultural prices and food insecurity. If we are facing a phosphate shortage, the situation seems all the more grim when one considers some of the factors affecting supply and demand for food globally.

For starters, the global population is growing by about 75 million people per year. That means we have to figure out how to feed a new population the size of Egypt's or Germany's each year as the existing supply of arable land per capita declines. One way to try to solve this problem is to convert land from other uses to farmland. The problem is that this process requires a tremendous amount of phosphate, further weighing on what many worry is a dwindling supply.

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What's more, as the Asian middle class shifts to a more meat-based diet, demand for grain to produce that meat (and thus demand for phosphate to grow that grain) will skyrocket. Consider the example from Japan: Its meat consumption per capita jumped by about 1,000% over the past fifty years as it grew into a developed country. If the rest of Asia followed that example, demand for phosphate would go through the roof, as it requires anywhere from 3-6 lbs of grain to produce 1 lb of pork and 7-13 lbs of grain to finish and produce 1 lb of beef.

Further complicating the issue is that the bulk of the world's phosphate is tied up in just five countries. According to the GPRI, 90% of the world's remaining phosphate rock reserves is controlled by China, Morocco, S. Africa, Jordan, and the U.S. Imagine how quickly these countries would ban phosphate exports in the face of a food crisis, leaving the rest of the world with basically no way to grow crops.

This discussion would suggest that phosphate might make a compelling speculation in the years ahead. And it might. But I do have to warn you that not everybody views the supply situation as dire.

The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) recently carried out a study that reassessed the phosphate rock reserves and resources of phosphate-producing countries. This study, released late last year, concluded that global phosphate rock resources suitable for phosphate-based fertilizers were far more extensive than previously estimated. According to the study, at current extraction rates, these resources would be available for several centuries. Then, earlier this year, mostly based on the IFDC report, the USGS upped its reserve estimate for Morocco and Western Sahara from 5.7 billion metric tons to 50 billion metric tons, which contributed substantially to an upward revision in global reserves from 16 to 65 billion metric tons. Meanwhile, mine production of phosphate rock reached 176 million metric tons last year... So the situation may not be as ominous as many in the agricultural sector fear.

Nevertheless, whatever the "real" supply situation of phosphate is, we can still be fairly certain that demand is going to continue to increase as the global population grows and the emerging world shifts to a more meat-rich diet. So plays in phosphate are probably a worthwhile area for investors to explore.

[Bobwins]

PCT.v/pctzf.pk +.015 to C$.095

Prima Colombia Hardwood got cut in half last week as there was a change of jurisdiction between the local and federal government. The federal ministry is taking over and rescinded the cutting permits that Prima had. They were just about to start operations in Colombia.

Obviously very bad news for a startup. Company is cutting back operations in both Colombia and Canada to preserve cash until the permit situation is resolved.

Here is an overview interview with the CEO Donald Hayes.

http://www.goldeditor.com/newsletter-reviews/prima-colombia-hardwood-company-ceo-interview/

[eom7]

Nice to have the company/country you are negotiating with over a barrel!

[Bobwins]

Ethiopia is much closer to India and I'm sure the Indians would love to break up the duopoly of Russia and Canada in potash supply.

[Max Power]

yes, seems speculation of deal with india is going 'mainstream'

[Bobwins]

AAA.v/ALLRF.pk +.16 to C$1.75 nice pop at the open

[Max Power]

nice article..allana had a terrific day...the India situation really brings up some fantastic possibilities...

[RiddellFool]

AAA.V Shortage of Potash

From SI:
“This isn’t a matter of price discussion. This is a matter of supply.”

Potash Cartel’s ‘Cupboard Is Bare’ for India After China Pact, Mosaic Says

Canpotex Ltd., the North American cartel of potash producers, has no spare supply to sell to India this quarter and won’t resume negotiations with Indian buyers until “late” in the period, Mosaic Co. (MOS) Chief Executive Officer Jim Prokopanko said.

Canpotex’s “cupboard is bare,” Prokopanko said yesterday in a telephone interview from Mosaic headquarters in Plymouth, Minnesota. “There’s nothing to talk about until we have a better assessment of what’s going to be available.”

Talks between Canpotex and Indian importers ended in late June when Canpotex agreed to deliver 630,000 metric tons to China in the second half, Prokopanko said.

The Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd., a group representing 55 million farmers, said in May it would halt purchases of the crop nutrient unless Canpotex and other suppliers agreed to its conditions, including a 10 percent discount from the spot price. Canpotex is the marketing arm of North America’s three largest producers: Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Mosaic and Agrium Inc. (AGU)

“Both the Indians and the Chinese understood -- we were perfectly clear -- that there would likely be enough tons only to serve one or the other of their requirements,” Prokopanko said. “This isn’t a matter of price discussion. This is a matter of supply.”

The producers of the form of potassium had expected negotiations with Indian importers and distributors to be completed by June, according to comments in April from Potash Corp. Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle.
Indian Purchases

India bought 6.4 million metric tons of potash in the year ended March 31, according to the Fertiliser Association of India.

North American potash supply will remain tight because of steady demand and the effects of maintenance shutdowns and other supply disruptions as producers bring on line recent mine- capacity expansions, Prokopanko said in the interview.

Mosaic said yesterday in a statement its earnings in the three months through May rose to $1.45 a share from 89 cents a year earlier, topping the $1.39 average estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Fiscal fourth-quarter sales climbed 54 percent to $2.86 billion, beating the average estimate of $2.61 billion.

Mosaic advanced $1.21, or 1.8 percent, to $67.67 at 6:28 p.m. after the end of regular New York Stock Exchange trading yesterday. The shares dropped 13 percent this year through the close.

Potash helps plants to survive in dry conditions, strengthens their roots and curbs the growth of some crop diseases.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christopher Donville in Vancouver [e-mail].

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/canpotex-s-potash-cupboard-is-bare-mosaic-s-prokopanko-says...

[Max Power]

Don't mind cartonet Mike, he is a grumpy old man who takes pleasure in others misfortune and in his spare time likes to try to crush the dreams of others...he is masking something...but the extreme bitterness shows up in all he writes...

and its a Canadian company traded in the US that operates in china

[cartonet]

Just dont remind me.... I do screw ups everyday for the past few months. Interesting point you raise on the amount held at single positions, I seem to go like a yo-yo from very concentrated portfolios with 3-4 stocks taking 80% of it overall to periods of panic where 3 stocks will do 60% and 20 stocks will do the other 40%.

I think this is the tougher part on investing. Not getting to buy promising stocks, we all have an eye for that. But knowing how to get a right allocation for them where we can optimize profits in a bull market and sleep well in an stinky market like today´s