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JXN goes ex-div Friday.
Nice bounce in BHF and JXN. Thanks for the idea.
KNTK- Long at 59.83. Sell-off on secondary offering.
DLNG-A Sold these shares for 27% gain. Quick profit. In this energy market I will take the profit on these preferred shares.
RILY - Dropped back down to the insider buy range. Added a little at 59.45.
Holey smokes. - LNG CEO says of without expansion, they are sold out of liquefied natural gas till 2040!
Btw, my buys were small. One to keep JXN on my radar, and BHF because relative strength is below 20 and also to stay on my radar. I owned BHF before in the range and had a nice profitable swing trade.
BHF has broad institutional support and Vanguard and Blackrock both own about 9.6% of shares.
Jackson Financial (JXN) does look interesting. Recent spin-off. Thanks for the idea. Bot some. Not sure why these variable annuity companies don't get any respect. BHF is another. In fact, I just looked at BHF and got back in small at 45.06. I like that JXN pays a dividend. BHF does not. GNW has their variable annuity unit in run off. But, on last conference call at Q&A an analyst asked what they thought about the interest they were receiving in that unit.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461521-curreen-capital-q3-2021-investor-letter
I will have to look in to these guys more and try to find what the fear is in variable annuities.
and I am re-checking, but I am
assuming this is JXN
Over the weekend, a friend asked
me about Jackson National...
I'm wondering your thoughts.
I'm starting to check on it...
P/E of 2 and divided?
Sometimes the simplest questions are best.
If it is such a screaming value and buy here,
Then why was it allowed to get here?
CDR- C. Update - Looks like the way the deal is structured they get around the change of control issue.
Also, not clear what the safeguards are for WHLR not to stop making preferred dividends although the release says " independent public reporting entity that holds a significant retained portfolio of income-producing assets is intended to facilitate the undisrupted ability of the Surviving Company to pay all required dividends..."
CDRprC and CDRprD. Bought some CDR-A right before the close.
CDR announce last fall that they were going to look to sell their assets. The stock has been on a steady climb since. Wednesday they announced a sale of assets and remaining to be merged with WHLR.
I assumed the preferred would do well too as the common. To my surprise I noticed that the preferreds had crashed. the C's were selling for $9.12. That was down from $23 the day of the announcement. I read the press release. The press release implied the preferreds would be held by WHLR. WHLR own preferreds has had their dividends suspended. HOlders of the CDR preferreds assumed the same fate and sold. If you have to get out of a big holding of preferreds of any company the door is narrow as they trade thinly.
I decided to dig deeper and read the SEC filing. The detail there implied something different that the press release.
Bot some DLNG-A preferreds here at 17.36. Speculative gamble. 3 million shares outstanding.Volume here is 32,500. Perhaps fixed income trying to unload Russian exposure in to a thin market. Volume on common today less than 30 day average. No rush for the exits as the preferreds would imply. Yields 12.75%. B series 13%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492898-dynagas-lng-risks-outweigh-potential-rewards
This author thinks there is too much risk. Russia biggest customer.
CHK - trimmed some to take profits. Actually sold the CHKEW warrants for a 40% gain. Position was getting to big. Goes ex-div tomorrow. Wondering if the dividend is propping it up, and perhaps sell-off tomorrow. Sold some April $80 calls for $4 on some of the remaining holdings.
CORR - Speculative casino trade here at 2.89. New 52 week lows. Actually all time lows! Earnings out on the 14th. This company is going through a transition. Now owns regulated pipelines. Preferreds are holding up
This was a $40 stock until the pandemic crushed them.
CLF _ Closed out this position. Nice move but near highs. Taking the profit.
WBA - Bot at 46.40. Small position.
Looked at it at $45 but got distracted and missed the buy. Strong support in the $44-45 range.
RILY - Nice! Ended the day at 65.20!
RILY - Long some here at 61.40.
6 insider buys posted this am.
Goes ex-div 3/8 for $1.00
Paid out about 10.00 in dividends last year.
Very shareholder friendly.
DHCNL - Buying the last two days. Senior unsecured unsub debt for DHC. Yields 7.8%
QUANTUMONLINE.COM SECURITY DESCRIPTION: Diversified Healthcare Trust, formerly Senior Housing Properties Trust, 6.25% Senior Notes Due 2046, issued in $25 denominations, redeemable at the issuer's option on or after 2/18/2021 at $25 per share plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 2/1/2046. Interest distributions of 6.25% per annum ($1.5625 per annum or $0.39063 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 3/1, 6/1, 9/1 & 12/1 to holders of record on the record date that will be 2/15, 5/15, 8/15 & 11/15 respectively (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is one business day prior to the record date). Distributions paid by these debt securities are interest and as such are NOT eligible for the preferential 15% to 20% tax rate on dividends and are also NOT eligible for the dividend received deduction for corporate holders. Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest. This security was rated as Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P at the date of its IPO. The Notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company.
ALIN-A and ALIN-B. Up nearly 100% on these. Altera Infrastructure in good position for energy in Europe.
FLNG - Sold 20% of my position here. Up at near resistance. Took the 42% profit.
ACT - Long at $21.00. Mortgage insurer 81.6% owned by GNW.
I responded to some comments on a SA article this weekend and ran some numbers for ACT and possible projections. Not paying a regular dividend YET, but said they will start this year.
What I wrote at SA;
"Another interesting exercise is taking the $542mil in expected ACT earnings and dividing by the 163 mil shares outstanding for $3.33 per share (street expects 3.35 and 3.57 in 2023). Pay out 40% of that in dividends for a dividend of $1.33. Put a 4% yield on that for a price per share of $33.25. 4%? RDN is at 3.34; ESNT 1.8%; MTG 2.15. At 5% ACT goes for $26.60. For fun, lets look at a 4% yield for GNW's ownership. GNW owns 133 million shares of ACT. ACT at $33.25 gives it a market cap of $5.42 bil. GNW's ownership of 81.6% is equal to $4.42bil, or $8.58 per share.
I think once ACT establishes a consistent dividend the stock then takes on a whole bigger audience of income buyers. GNW has an interest to have that dividend as large as possible. I calculated a 40% payout of earnings. What if it is 50%? 50% of next year's projected earnings of $3.57 is $1.78. With a 4% yield gives you a PPS of $44.50 for ACT. To GNW that is 11.49 a share!"
GNW is currently at 3.98. I see limited downside for them. They have been in a trading range about the same for 6 years. They are so much better in shape than they were 6 years ago. One could argue that they could by GNW and get ACT cheaper, and I would agree. But GNW seems to be range bound and I think ACT could see a bounce when regular dividends are announced.
Interesting video on renewable energy topic
I gotta find time -
this weekend, to go through that SMLP release and reports...
SMLP - Shocked! Down 40%. Pegged this one really, really wrong.
I get that it was a weak report. Thought it was mostly priced in. Did not 2022 Guidance to be so bad.
Market cap of about $154 mil here. Adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million and DCF of $29.9 million. About 10 million units outstanding. That is nearly $3 a unit in DCF for just one quarter.
>>Plenty of "uncertainty" everywhere, between the Fed, the debt,
the Ukraine, etc.... <<
And even more so today...and the market rallies?
Sell the rumor. Buy the news?
Going in to the day I had sold my hedges a couple days ago. The rally gave me an opportunity to take another position in SQQQ before the close.
SMLP earnings on deck in the am.
GOOGL - Bought back the put at 26.60 for 50% gain.
MHNC - Added at 20.52
Exchange traded debt.
GOOGL - PEG here of .92. Looks cheap. Sold 1 March 2410 put for $53.30. Expires in 23 days.
CHK out with a good report. Yeah, they missed but look at the highlights!
2022 Guidance Highlights:
Increased 2022 adjusted EBITDAX guidance to $3.8 – $4.0 billion (previous range $3.4 – $3.6 billion) with no change in capital spending
Expected to generate approximately $1.9 – $2.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2022 and greater than $9 billion in adjusted free cash flow over the next five years
Anticipate paying between $900 million – $1.1 billion (approximately 13% current yield, based on current stock price) in total dividends in 2022 and greater than $5 billion over the next five years
Strong balance sheet with net debt(1)-to-2022E EBITDAX ratio of approximately 0.7x, pro forma for Chief and Powder River Basin cash consideration
Quarterly dividend of $1.7675 per common share, consisting of the first quarterly variable dividend of $1.33 per common share and a quarterly base dividend of $0.4375 per common share, payable on March 22, 2022 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 7, 2022
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18683560-chesapeake-energy-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-financial-and
FBRT - Not happy with their report last night. I expected a buyback as they spoke of in the merger proposal. Hopefully they are buying back here at low PPS. Market cap of $572mil. They proposed a $100mil buy back. 17%.
Yields 10.9%
FBRT reports tonight. Added a little at 12.85 this am.
HMLP - aargh! Earnings out and no news on the buyout offer. Earned 37 cents a share. Not bad for a $4.36 stock. This company use to pay a 44 cent per share quarterly dividend until they had an issue with one of their charters. Once they get that resolved perhaps they start paying a larger dividend again. Now paying 4 cents annually. The holding company offer of $4.25 looks to me to be too low and I doubt it will be accepted. The offer does help put a floor on downside. So, I see little downside risk to the trade, and significant upside potential. If they paid a $1.00 annual dividend with a 10% yield it would be a $10 stock.
RRC out with good report and going to start paying a dividend. Projected $1bil in free cash flow for 2022, or about $4 per share. Buyback announced too! Up 75% in after hours.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3802963-range-resources-non-gaap-eps-of-0_96-misses-0_02-revenue-of-1_57b-beats-698_01m
Looking to add to PBI-B tomorrow.
PBI has a senior bond that matures in 2037 with a current yield of 5.8%. PBI-B matures in 2043. Current yield is 7.9%. Big difference for a senior bond where one trades in the bond market and the other NYSE.
MHNC - Bot a small starter position today. Exchange traded debt for MHLD. Senior unsecured, unsub. I need to research this one more before buying more. Yields over 9% here.
HMLP reports tomorrow morning. Could be interesting. Hope to hear more about the offer for $4.25. Hopefully they turn it down.
RECAF February 2022 Presentation
https://reconafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/ReconAfrica-Investor-Presentation.pdf
I originally became aware of
RECON through a former co-worker -
I worked with him back at S&P - I was a senior consultant with
Standard and Poors for almost a decade -
doing research, breaking down the 10Q's and K's, working with finance subscribers on how to use our software to get the data needed, etc...
This research report, or one similar, with estimates of the basin size, is what had caught my attention...
"the Kavango Basin represents a potential 120 billion barrel opportunity, as confirmed by world-leading geochemist Daniel Jarvie."
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/analysis/investing-ideas/reconafrica-the-key-to-unlocking-120-billion-barrels-of-oil-potential-in-the-kavango-basin
But anyway.... just thought I would let you know about it - and
the oil/gas sector becomes more and more of a puzzle everyday - for many macro-econ reasons.
RECAF - Interesting story. Early stage resource development companies can be extremely good, or bad. I would have to do more research. One problem is that they continue to issue more shares to develop the resource, diluting current holders. With more recent shares issued their market cap is already at $1.03billion. But, it does appear ready to start showing increasing production.
This analyst link was interesting.
https://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/RECOJan202022.pdf
Does this report indicate they will be cash flow positive this year?
Thanks for the idea! I need to read up on this one more.
Just haven't had the chance to go
back through your posts and analyze your picks...
I can already tell there's some "solid gems".
Plenty of "uncertainty" everywhere, between the Fed, the debt,
the Ukraine, etc....
Good investors, or should I say swing traders know those items are all
"just noise", which can cause liquidation breaks, one way or the other.
Problem is with the uncertainty, comes higher option premiums, which makes the game tougher. Sometimes it's easier to stay on the sidelines, until you see that solid divergence, or "out of balance" scenerio.
Tell me what you think about RECAF. There actually is a board here on Ihub about it. From my understanding, it could be one of the largest oil discoveries ever found... in nowhere Africa.
I would think those "in charge" are just looking to prove it all and as soon as a XOM, Chevron, or BP takes a solid stake... it'll launch again.
Chances are high that it will be a top M&A candidate, somewhere down the line.
SMLP - This is from a quarterly earnings call transcript from March 4th of 2021. The stocks I trade I don't usually expect multiple returns, but SMLP is an exception. I think it could be a triple or more in two years. Once they start paying a dividend again this one could fly!
From the transcript; March 4th 2021;
JPMorgan Warns The Ghost Of 2018 Will Steamroll Goldman's Bullish Narrative
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-ghost-2018-will-steamroll-goldmans-bullish-narrative?s=03
ET- "Citi midstream analyst Timm Schneider ran some buyout math - private equity could pay an 80%+ premium for Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) and still generate a 20% IRR over the five-year investment horizon."
ET - Out with good earnings. Happy to see them curtail capital expenditures and use free cash flow to pay down debt and return capital to unitholders. From their earnings release;
Thanks for the observation. I agree. I have been trading SQQQ as a hedge for my other positions. Short term trades usually holding less than two days. It has worked out fairly well.
I am more off an individual stock picker that looks for mis-priced opportunities. Pretty much a fundy only guy.
The QQQ is concerning here....
The bounce over the past month is weak and losing even more strength.
I don't think the masses realize it yet. Volume isn't coming through because many just don't realize how precarious it all is.
They think that, "Ohhh, a bounce is coming - anytime now"...
Blinded by the 12 year, longest bull in history.
Going back to my Elliott wave post and that pattern -
We're very close to seeing us pick up volume and speed to the downside, IMHO....
Instead of just hanging in a range like we have for the past month.
We're ready for another leg down, just like occurred in 2018.
There's just no reason to own the indexes, and playing specific "good future" stocks, like you are, is the best route.
SMLP - I really like the potential for much more higher PPS for this one over the next two years.
Earnings out on the 26th.
https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-schedules-fourth-quarter-2021
FB - bought some at 214.19 for a trade.
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