Torrid Holdings Inc (CURV)

[NoMoDo]

Sept 10-12, the stock dropped substantially from $7.18 - $3.88 - completing a 48% drop in price. I said that Sept 24th might be an early entry point for those who like to gamble, but to wait til the following Monday for confirmation. I hadn't responded on Monday because I didn't see signs of strength yet. The stock closed 9/24 at $3.91 and is at $3.91 at the moment, so no move up yet. CURV hasn't fallen off my radar completely, but I have been out for some time after taking profits.

I am looking closer again and I think we might see a movement upward again. Only one week of green candle, so next week is the confirmation. The daily chart is showing some momentum upward. I am looking at a quick day trade that might turn into a longer term hold. Watch for $4.20 range next few days.

[NoMoDo]

Might be a good time to buy back. Check out the weekly chart. No confirmation until next Monday, but those who want to gamble could get in a bit early to a nice move.

Thanks for posting.

[Irishihadmore]

Primed and ready boys

[NoMoDo]

This time I am out for real. What a great stock. Can't wait for Monday to see how we open.

[NoMoDo]

On second thought... seems I had an open order for $7.80 that I forgot about. Looks like I am back in. maybe we will go up in the next 10 minutes???

[NoMoDo]

And back out for the weekend.

[NoMoDo]

Bought a small position of 1000 shares at $7.82. Cautiously optimistic at this price range.

[NoMoDo]

Incredible day today. Closed out my position at $7.94 avg. Looking to get back in near the 200ma on the 30 min chart. Roughly $7.80. We managed to dip down to $7.11 this morning and I am thinking that we may have that drop I talked about for Monday - a day early followed by the sharp move up. If we continue up today, I will wait to see what Monday brings before getting back in.

[NoMoDo]

I am back in positive territory with a few day trades yesterday and today. Question is, what to do for tomorrow. Monthly chart current candle is red, but still has a slightly positive outlook with 2/3 of a month to close. Weekly chart shows we are up this week after closing out the fib retreat even though we are currently below last week's close. Daily chart shows a nice green candle erasing yesterday's loss.

My guestimate is that we see another up day tomorrow. Monday potentially a down day to keep us moving sideways for a few days. This stock likes to bounce off the 50dma - and when need be, the 200dma. We are well above the 200, so that isn't likely an issue for a long time. The 50dma however, is 7.50. We blew past that after breaking it downward yesterday. I think we will see it touch 7.5 over the next two days, but still close up tomorrow. The interesting thing is that the stock will bounce off the 50week ma as well as 200wma. The 50wma is $4.88 because the stock has moved up so quickly over the last few months. There must be some time when the supports catch up. Again, look for some sideways trading for a few weeks. I still think the move up will continue due to the short position still held. But the move might be a little slower. Take profits as they arise for bigger profits, but a longer term upside is still likely.

Days to cover: DTC is the number of days it takes for every short position to be closed out with the current volume. DTC is 11 days. That is getting substantially smaller, but still playable. Why? Volume has increased substantially from a month ago. That alone has lowered the DTC. We got hit with the market crash on Friday and Monday as did pretty much all stocks. That was an opportunity for some shorters to get out at a nice discount... I think they took the opportunity even though it wasn't enough - reason for the increased volume. Old volume should return as the price increases which should increase the Days to cover.

So what is the catalyst to move this up after some sideways trading? I did some research much of which came from a women's clothing expert. Something he told me that I hadn't given thought to:

Plus sized women have little to choose from in the way of decent clothes. They are willing to spend more for clothes that hide things and accentuate others. When the economy crashes, the average woman will buy less expensive clothing because they can find decent clothing everywhere - even at a discount. Plus sided women don't have that luxury. They want to look good and will not sacrifice their looks whenever humanly possible. For example, my wife found lash extensions. When we decided to reduce spending, she cut out Starbucks, restaurants, even the kind of car she drove, but those eyelash extensions at $300 every 2 weeks never were missed. Moral of the story, Beer, cigarettes, and apparently decent plus sized clothing are somewhat economy proof. While other stocks will feel the pinch very soon, this one may avoid trouble.

When the next Q is released, we could see another earnings beat while others will be tightening. Retail is a very small portion of stock ownership. I expect that number to grow in the coming months as this becomes better known. Hopefully the company will enhance their advertising for better name recognition as that happens.

[NoMoDo]

August 5th was the big selloff everywhere. I ended up buying pretty big on Friday with the original move down. Not great timing, but...
Whenever all stocks take a dump at one time, it is an indication that there will be a bounce as nerves calm. I ended up buying more shares at 7.36 through 7.55. I am not at break even for the day, but getting much closer. A move back to 7.90 will make the whole situation a very positive one. Goal is to always keep control and look past the initial fire in front of you. How I wish I was all cash over the weekend tho.

[NoMoDo]

Been day trading here and there waiting for a clear move. Got in bigger today looking for a nice move up.

[NoMoDo]

Weekly chart may show weakness to the 20 week mark. Though this week will be the confirming candle. I am expecting a little sideways trading as well as a dip until we see the 20 ma touched. Maybe 2 or 3 weeks? Will watch the action this week but sitting on the sidelines until I see some positive moves.

[NoMoDo]

Bought back 2k. Hope the support holds.

edit:4200 at $7.92

[NoMoDo]

We fell through the 20dma overnight and into open all the way to the 50 day ema of $7.02 - disasterous... well, not really because after it touched down, it shot up like a rocket to $8.33. That is over a buck 30 up before 10am central time.

I ended up selling at $8.18 average. Definitely not the high, but a nice move anyway. Reason for selling was just the size of the move and a pretty big weakness in the 30 min chart. Got above the 50 ma - good, but also above the BB. Next candle was below the 50 as well as the bb. Waterfall likely. Could see it test support of $8.08. If it falls through, the next support is the fib support of $7.56. Don't really want to see it go that low. The 20 ma on the 30 min chart may also come into play as it is rising with every candle. This stock likes to use the 20ma as a support. Right now the 20ma is at $7.47 and moving up every candle.

[NoMoDo]

BTW, I hope to see a close at $7.71ish - the 20dma. That would set us up nicely for a move up tomorrow.

It is 10:45am central time and I am expecting a bounce to the $7:20-7:50 range over the next 2 hours now that it touched the 50dma.

[NoMoDo]

I am about to make a silly excuse for my blunder. I have been trying to set up an event and haven't had the time to fully watch the charts. I have been glancing at the charts on my phone this last week, but I didn't look at the daily chart.

I am back in at $8.69 average. I might be a little early.

I didn't want to be completely out because I was expecting great pressure on the shorters at the (yesterday's current) price range. Two red candles above the BB followed by a solid red candle below the bb. An obvious sign that we will need some support below. First one was the 20 dma at $7.68. That didn't seem to hold at all. Next one was the 50dma. I just added another 2000 shares way down here. Down $30k today but expect it to bounce from here. The added shares should dampen some of the short term pain.

The Weekly chart isn't great, but provided we get a bump back up today or even by Friday, there won't really be any downward pressure for the week. Still riding the upper bb on the right side of the fence. It is 10:45am central time and I am expecting a bounce to the $7:20-7:50 range over the next 2 hours now that it touched the 50dma.

Today's personal lesson/reminder - always - always - always check the monthly, weekly, daily chart for any signs of weakness before getting excited by a very short term potential move up on the 30min chart.

[NoMoDo]

I am back in at $8.69 average. I might be a little early. Still riding a little high on the day chart, but it will do that with a short squeeze. The consolidation brought us back into the bb's for now.

[NoMoDo]

Sold at $9. Looking for $8.80 - hopefully before close today.

[NoMoDo]

Daily chart. Notice anything?Well above the BB and very overbought. Took it off the table for tomorrow's trading. Will watch open closely just in case I want to get back in. Never know when the stock will keep running.

[NoMoDo]

Just to clarify, last week we didn't move up 7.62%, That move was just Friday. Last week we moved up a buck from $7.73 to $8.76. That is a really good week, but check out the charts. Never ever say that stocks can't continue to move up week after week without a major fall. The only red candle in 13 weeks was small and the next week completely recovered.

[NoMoDo]

Well, we ended up the week with a healthy rise. Another 7.62% up at the close to finish at $8.76.

Friday we will likely see the price dip early followed by a healthy rise to end the week up fairly substantially

I've done a little day trading here and there when the charts provided opportunities, but this has been a stock that I want to be in more than out.

That said, The move has been up so much that I expect a small short term drop soon. I took out half my position just in case (now 3600 shares), but I want to be in while the momentum is so strong. I think it is a mistake to bail in a stock with 24 days to cover shorts AND being above the 52 week high. I am thinking we could see $12-13 by the end of next week because you know the shorts are starting to really feel the pain.

Another thing I haven't mentioned much - if at all... This stock is held mostly by institutions. Retail is a very small percentage. That means that they can generally manipulate a stock to their favor - unless the other 76% of institutional buyers are making money. I'd hate to be part of the 20% that is short with no real way out except by buying at a much higher cost. Hang on and enjoy the ride.

[NoMoDo]

52 week high was $7.80. Last Friday, we got a new 52 week high before a little consolidation. Yesterday we touched the new 52 week high again with an incredible day. Today's continued uptrend hinted that we would close above the 52 week again. That triggered some great short covering.

BTW, look for more short covering to have occurred soon. Today alone was 3 to 1 buys. Soon enough, this will likely be just another stock. Until then, I am looking for mid $8s minimum.

We hit $8.47 - (short term goal was mid $8's - check). I had my sell order in and dumped everything. At the end of the day, I ended up buying back at $8.14 average. Since we still have a large short %, I am expecting the train to keep rolling. Friday we will likely see the price dip early followed by a healthy rise to end the week up fairly substantially. Need to touch the 8 ma on the 30 min chart before moving back up.

Edit: On closer examination of the weekly chart, I expect tomorrow will be a good day, but next week could end up being a consolidation week. That or Friday will be flat and next week will continue to be green. Former more likely.

[NoMoDo]

As I guessed, we had a couple weak days followed by some much better days. Today has been incredible. Right now we are seeing $7.83 but the 30 minute chart is showing us well above the BB. I closed my position slowly while I wait for the price to get back into the BB and then touch the 8ma on the 30 minute chart. Maybe around $7.60?

Glad I found this stock. BTW, look for more short covering to have occurred soon. Today alone was 3 to 1 buys. Soon enough, this will likely be just another stock. Until then, I am looking for mid $8s minimum.

[NoMoDo]

Still 27 days to cover. I am expecting a decent covering from the last 2 weeks. Maybe 350k shares covered? WAG only. That would put us at about 11-12% of float (float is 10.9mil). At increased daily volume, that could bring the days to cover to around 18 days. That would relieve some of the short squeeze, but there is still a lot of upside here.

Two things at play right now.
1. Potential increased short - as the stock was very overbought recently - over the last few months even... shorters have a potential opportunity to bring the price down below the 8 day MA. That would relieve a lot of pressure. I am assuming the price will go down for a few days and hopefully bounce off the 8 dma, but if they can push it lower, the next support is around $6.43.
2. Continued short squeeze - We are sitting at well above $7.20. We broke through the last resistance before the 52 week high of $7.80. The bulls will likely fight for continued squeeze - though they may allow a bit of consolidation this week to strengthen the chart.

My opinion is that we will see $6.70-6.80 over the next week. Then the bulls will take over and ride this up to see a new 52 week high. At that point, the shorts will be encouraged to cover faster.

[NoMoDo]

My last post - 10 days ago - the price was $6.65. Hung out in South Carolina without a computer - was great!
Today's price rose to a high of $7.62 before closing at $7.47. Been a great run so far.

Now... The weekly and monthly chart look strong still, but the daily chart shows a bit of weakness. Might be a good time to consider being out for a few days. An indecisive red candle (still well above yesterday's close) closed completely outside of the the bollinger bands. Look for a retreat to the 8 day moving average. Then I personally will move back in. Exciting times ahead.

[NoMoDo]

Friday was another volatile day with a finish up .19 or 2.86%. Watching the bollingers on this stock can pay off much more than holding - at least for a while. Shorts covered 200k shares with the last short report. That brings us to 27 days to cover. Still a lot of play and a potential nice payday for another month or two. Sitting at the top of the BB's from 1 minute to 15. The 30min chart has some room to move up. Weekly and monthly are at the top as well.

Weekly chart closed it's latest candle in the green again - that is 8 of the last 9 green with last week having consolidation - as I expected - see a couple posts ago.

Hot to play this? Will likely go above the bb's early tomorrow. Then a little consolidation. The 30 min chart is still strong, so look for a move back up - even by 10am. I expect a good day Monday, but by the end of the week things will likely tighten up - still green candle, but likely won't close the week as high as early during the week. One of these days we will likely see $7.85ish. I expect it to happen after closing the 30 min (completed candle) above $7.20. If the volume drops on the way up, take some off the table. If volume increases, no need to sell even if well above the bb. If it happens according to plan, I will take some off the table at around $7.85 - volume and bb will be my strongest indicators. Should there still be considerable short, I will wait for the dip and then get back in with 2 feet.

[NoMoDo]

Interesting day today. Jumped to $7.80 for a few minutes and then got beat down hard from there. We saw a low of $5.39 before it made it's recovery. A rise of a buck twenty. A drop of two and a half bucks. Finally finishing up with a buck and a quarter rise to finish with a small gain for the day. This movement, I believe, was the results of shorts in panic mode followed by a forced increase in their short position instead of simply covering. Keep in mind that the stock is short 18% of it's float. That is pretty big.

I missed the open this morning so I didn't get to sell any high $7's, but after it broke below the 200ma, I sold. At low $5's, it was a no brainer to buy back. Below the bollinger bands with no reason for the dump. Stock finished at $6.65 - a 5 cent gain for the day. Overall a really good day, but admittedly not what I expected.

[NoMoDo]

We didn't see $7.20 yesterday, but we saw it today after hours. The stock had a low of a buck 69 in October and has moved up pretty steadily since then. Crossing a strong resistance level today - and the good earnings report - means the short squeeze is about to get tighter.

Will we see $7.20 today? If so, we could see a whole lot of panic and a nice spike tomorrow. Can't wait

27 days of short cover now that almost 2 mil shares have been bought back. Panic in the streets? Can't wait to see how the week finishes. Then the month.

[NoMoDo]

Was a gamble, but it looks like it paid off in spades. Earning report out and it is a decent one:

Torrid Holdings CURV came out with quarterly earnings of $0.12 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.07 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 71.43%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this women's apparel retailer would post a loss of $0.08 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.04, delivering a surprise of 50%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Torrid Holdings, which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, posted revenues of $279.77 million for the quarter ended April 2024, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.16%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $293.85 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

Torrid Holdings shares have added about 15.4% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.7%.

What's Next for Torrid Holdings?

While Torrid Holdings has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Torrid Holdings: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.07 on $286.58 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.17 on $1.14 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Retail - Apparel and Shoes is currently in the top 32% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.

Another stock from the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, Kura Sushi KRUS, has yet to report results for the quarter ended May 2024.

This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -6.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 5.6% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.

Kura Sushi's revenues are expected to be $65.83 million, up 33.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Zacks Investment Research

[NoMoDo]

Near the end of the last week we got the consolidation that was expected. Today we are up .48 which is 7.4% up by 1pm central. Still looking at 27.5 days for shorts to cover. Tomorrow is the earnings announcement. Will we see $7.20 today? If so, we could see a whole lot of panic and a nice spike tomorrow. Can't wait
From June 3rd:

Here is the weekly chart. Got some more upward movement this week, but keep an eye out on the bollinger bands. Riding the top and could get outside - potential for consolidation for a week or two. Market is betting on a continuation of short squeeze, but June 12 is reporting date.

[NoMoDo]

Here is the weekly chart. Got some more upward movement this week, but keep an eye out on the bollinger bands. Riding the top and could get outside - potential for consolidation for a week or two. Market is betting on a continuation of short squeeze, but June 12 is reporting date. If they surprise good news, this could be a very big short squeeze. Think bigger than AMC and even GMC. Even if they don't surprise, we could still see a continuation of upward movement. If they fail big, the shorts may get a couple weeks to buy back, but we are looking at 27.5 days to cover. That is a big opportunity.

[NoMoDo]

slow steady short covering on the daily chart. I know nothing about retail, but I know a nice chart.

[NoMoDo]

CURV is a plus size fashion retailer. Owned by the same people as Hot Topic. What makes this special right now? The stock is short 27.5 days out. That makes this a short squeeze opportunity.