The Daily Speculate w/ Asnap and Co.

[Rapturos]

NRTLQ at .10

Hopefully double from here

[Rapturos]

Fun and free RPG game online if you guys are into that kind of thing.


http://www.fallensword.com/?ref=2650023

[Rapturos]

nvd

[Cougar6]

DRYS and TBSI are not tied to the global recover, only the Chinese recovery. Since they have floated their own recover package both companies are up. DRYS was trading at about 9.50 when I was looking at it. Closed today at 11.13 and suspect it will level at about 12.50 or so before going higher. Three months it will reach $20. Not a big play, but a relatively safe one. TBSI is more a gamble because of the debt they carry, but they are also tied more to China

[downsideup]

My pick for investment focus in shipping stocks now, as opposed to only chart traders, is to focus on off shore service providers who have a strong book that is likely to be sustained even in recession. After that, if demand for oil seems it is going to pick back up with decent volume, the tankers might have some interest. For now, OPEC pulling back on the throttles again tomorrow will mean there is less oil to ship... and using oil tankers as crude storage containers isn't a high value gig for them... but that might take some capacity for a short time, until the supply cuts match demand. Dry bulk shippers you should look at later, while the ships are tied up at the docks rusting, when no one wants to buy a ship... and the debts owed for them are starting to really hurt... forcing fire sales.

For now, that narrow the entire universe to three:

ULTR, GLBL and TMM... in roughly that order.

ULTR services the ongoing development of new oil fields in off shore Brazil, which seems set to continue their book for at least a year or two as the recession unfolds.

GLBL... similar case if less specific elements in the demand.

TMM services off shore Mexico where there is a need for a lot of additional investment, but less certainty that the investment will happen, much less that it will happen in timely fashion...

Still, none of them are particularly timely picks... all three trading at the top of the bands.

[Rapturos]

SAY good entrance

[downsideup]

DRYS as a chart trader maybe... as an investment you'd be betting on the recovery of the U.S. consumer, with a need for avid consumption driving a need for a lot of dry bulk goods as foreign made products... which might not be the best timing as we enter what is, so far, shaping up to be a recession roughly comparable or more than that in 1982... Is the dollar going to stay strong, so we can afford foreign goods ? Likely not...

I do like investments in ships... but, the timing is usually best just before the end of a recession... not at its onset. I'd wait for better resolution on the economic data before saying we are near coming to the end of this recession now... although maybe we are coming to the end of the immediate crisis in finance and the crisis in confidence... I still don't see that anything has been done to address the primary issues that plague finance and confidence... but, at least January is getting closer.

[Rapturos]

I'm back everyone. Spent a little time suspended for telling someone what I thought of them.


uhm... PGPDQ. Wow.

BEE is a turd and still looking forward to THMR doing so nice things all they need is refinancing by March. Big If.


I am curious how the AIG news will be affecting its price in the AM.

[Cougar6]

DRYS or TBSI - Both long term plays that may fluctuate wildly over the next twelve months but both should come end with a value at least five times what they are trading for. ESEA is a safer bet but you should wait for a pullback to at least 4.50.

[Cougar6]

If you don't mind me asking, what is your rational? Do you think they were burnt in the summer by the liquidity issue and that is now over?

You may well be right, but it just seemed like an odd choice. Of course, if you don't want to share your secret system, I understand. So far, I like what I see.

[Cougar6]

Me thinks you might have bailed too early. I got in after watching this one for another after you sold and I am still very pleased with the results. I think I will try to hold till just under $1.00 and then get out. Still substantial risk the company could go belly up or at a minimum the SH get left holding the bag.

[asnap]

{ CSUN }Bishtry bought myself another gift today 5000 of CSUN !! now have 15000 !! HO HO HO !! next year i'll be seeing major GREEN !! i still think with O bama administration solar will be a huge winner !! it's all about the benjamin's !! LOL !! holding 1 million of calypso !! long and strong !! as long as it takes !!

[Rapturos]

No required focus. Just that you believe it is going to go up.

or down if a short.

[downsideup]

What sort of focus do you guys want this board to have ? Any particular type of play ? Any particular limits in the focus, either in type of stocks, or types of trades ?

[Rapturos]

THMR long term play as well.

3 monthes

[Rapturos]

BEE may be an interesting long term long look

[Rapturos]

Avg in at .2325 avg out at .33

[Rapturos]

Most likely they will cancel shares and reissue new equity when they emerge from bankruptcy, thus making any shares held worth zero.

But seeing as the Pilgrim family owns 22 mil of the 74 mil shares outstanding, they may issue some warrants when they emerge. I wouldn't count on it though.

The recent price runnup, could be the Pilgrim's buying up shares on the cheap for just this reason.

But even if that was the case, the emergence will be a year off probably, so their should be significant downward pressure at some point if you want to grab some on the cheaper in about 6 monthes.


I mean this is all speculation, so...

[Rapturos]

I am going to probably get out tomorrow unless the action is awesome. I am hoping to get a pop to about .32 by noon. That should do for me. I might stay in though. Depends on the price movement really.

Bankrupts are usually good for a couple day runs, if they are big names.

Wamu, lehman, circuit city all had many day runs.

Pgpd is a less well known company but the near 100% rise today should catch some eyes for tomorrow. I have to see nice volume and not too much of a dip to stay in. If it gaps and stays above .30 I will hold until EOD to see if it closes at or near the HOD. If it does I will continue to hold until volume(interest driving the price increase) dries up.

I plan on playing bankruptcy execlusively in 2009, unless CLYW shows up. ANVR might be a good play at some point if they get delisted, they should come out with good news in the 4th quarter, hopefully. I will of course be watching RAD as well.

I also am watching RT, CHUX, and JBX.

But I only plan on playing the Bankrupt stocks. It is hard to lose on them.

[Cougar6]

So far so good...

Do you see it staying in the same range (.30 - .90) for the remainder of the Bankruptcy or do you see it pulling up over $1 before that ... or was this strictly a day trade?

Thanks

[Rapturos]

The boards inaugural speculate!

pgpdq.pk

I love them bankrupts. Hopefully see a pop into close.