TXCO Resources Inc. (fka TXCOQ)

[the cork]

Oil Falls the Most in a Month as U.S. Consumer Spending Drops

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell the most in a month after U.S. consumer spending dropped for the first time since April, increasing skepticism that the economy will strengthen.

Oil decreased 3.6 percent and equities declined after the Commerce Department said purchases slipped 0.5 percent in September in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country. Futures climbed the most in two weeks yesterday after a government report that the U.S. grew in the third quarter.

“People are still antsy that this will be a tepid recovery,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural- resource bond portfolio as senior managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston. “Given where the economy is, $80 oil doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense.”

Crude oil for December delivery fell $2.87 to end the session at $77 a barrel at 2:49 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Sept. 24. Prices dropped 4.3 percent this week, the first decrease this month.

Futures climbed 9 percent in October, the biggest monthly increase since a 30 percent rally in May.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 2.8 percent to 1,036.19 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.5 percent to 9,712.73.

In the 12 months to June, the U.S. economy shrank 3.8 percent, the worst performance in seven decades, according to the Commerce Department. The four quarterly decreases marked the longest stretch of declines since the records began in 1947.

‘One-Day Event’

“Yesterday we were celebrating the end of the recession, but now there are worries about whether there will be enough positive economic data to keep the market advancing,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “It looks like the rally was a one-day event and now we will return to looking to the stock market for direction.”

The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment fell to 70.6 in October from 73.5 the month before.

Third-quarter growth “was boosted by the various fiscal stimulus policies,” Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein said in an e-mail. “The danger remains of a serious slowdown after this and a possible double dip” of the economy in 2010, he said.

Consumer spending on cars was spurred by the government’s “cash for clunkers” plan, which expired in August. Builders benefited from a first-time home-buyers tax credit that may be extended beyond its Nov. 30 expiration date.

“There’s concern the economy will show a double dip,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “You are hearing fears that the end of the stimulus program will spell the end of the economic recovery.”

Price Outlook

Crude oil may fall next week on speculation the dollar will rebound against the euro and equities may pull back, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Fifteen of 34 analysts and traders, or 44 percent, said futures will drop through Nov. 6. Ten respondents, or 29 percent, predicted the market will rise and nine forecast prices will be little changed.

The U.S. currency traded at $1.4721 per euro, up from $1.4822 yesterday. A rising dollar reduces demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.

“The fundamentals don’t support prices at these levels and will eventually have to reassert themselves,” Hodge said.

Oil plunged on Oct. 28 when the Energy Department reported that U.S. gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.62 million barrels to 208.6 million. Inventories of crude oil rose 778,000 barrels to 339.9 million in the week ended Oct. 23.

Gasoline for November delivery fell 7.58 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $1.9432 a gallon in New York, the lowest since Oct. 14. Heating oil for October delivery declined 7.31 cents, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $1.9811 a gallon, the biggest drop since Sept. 24.

Alternative View

Some analysts and traders said today’s decline isn’t the beginning of a trend to lower prices and that futures are set to increase through the end of the year.

“When it comes to positive U.S. macroeconomic data, there is only one way for the oil price to go,” Tamas Varga, an analyst with PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London, said in a report. “If the performance of the market this month is anything to go by, then the next $25 move is more likely to be to the upside.”

Brent crude for December settlement dropped $2.84, or 3.6 percent, to end the session at $75.20 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the biggest decline since Sept. 24.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 544,797 contracts as of 3:06 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 570,229 contracts yesterday, 0.1 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.24 million contracts. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVy7ktGK_5Lk

[utmostbastard]

2009 Oct-B Short Data

Txco Resources Inc.

$
TXCOQ

Short Interest (Shares Short)
671,400
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
2.1
Short Percent of Float
1.81 %
Short Interest - Prior
683,700
Short % Increase / Decrease
-1.80 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™
-3
% From 52-Wk High ($ 5.50 )
%
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 0.16 )
%
% From 200-Day MA ($ 0.36 )
%
% From 50-Day MA ($ 0.38 )
%
Price % Change (52-Week)
-91.50 %
Shares Float
37,010,000
Total Shares Outstanding
38,553,311
% Owned by Insiders
2.74 %
% Owned by Institutions
4.10 %
Market Cap.

$ 16,192,391
Trading Volume - Today
210,443
Trading Volume - Average
323,900
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average
64.97 %
Earnings Per Share
-0.01
PE Ratio

Record Date
2009-OctB

[the cork]

Oil Climbs More Than $2 After Report of U.S. Economic Expansion


Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel following a report that the U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, spurring optimism that fuel demand will increase.

Oil climbed 3.1 percent after the Commerce Department said that the world’s largest energy-consuming country expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace from July through September. The economy was forecast to strengthen at a 3.2 percent annual rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“This confirms that the recession has ended and now the only question is what the pace of the recovery will be,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “It would appear that this would lead to increased demand.”

Crude oil for December delivery rose $2.41 to $79.87 a barrel at 2:48 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest increase since Oct. 15. Futures are up 79 percent this year after climbing to a one-year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

The economy shrank 3.8 percent in the 12 months to June, the worst performance in seven decades. The four consecutive decreases through the second quarter mark the longest stretch of declines since quarterly records began in 1947.

The number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance fell more than forecast to the lowest level in seven months, a government report showed. Continuing claims for jobless benefits declined by 148,000 to 5.8 million in the week ended Oct. 17, the lowest level since March 21 and biggest weekly drop since July, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

Recovery Signals

“The GDP and unemployment numbers were really positive and are signs that we may be in the midst of a sustainable recovery,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “We will want to see a further momentum of evidence that this recovery will lead to higher demand before sending prices too much higher.”

U.S. stocks rallied and the dollar dropped against the euro on the return of economic growth. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 2.2 percent to 1,065.28 at 3:29 p.m. in New York, snapping a four-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2 percent to 9,955.33.

The U.S. currency traded at $1.4846 per euro, down from $1.4706 yesterday, and is heading for the biggest drop since Sept. 8. A falling dollar spurs demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.

‘A Strange Dynamic’

“At least into the year-end, the trend is down for the dollar,” said Bilal Hafeez, global head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s largest foreign-exchange trader, in a Bloomberg Television interview in London. “It’s a strange dynamic right now. Bad U.S. data is good for the dollar.”

Commodities are heading higher as economic growth signals greater demand for energy, metals and crops. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials climbed 2.1 percent to 276.16, the biggest gain in a week.

“Eighty dollars has proven to be a real stumbling block for crude oil,” said Christopher Bellew, senior broker at Bache Commodities Ltd. in London. “We’re going to need a more definite increase in demand in order to push prices through that level. Currencies, equities and other commodities will be pointers in the meantime.”

Oil fell the most in a month yesterday after the Energy Department said that U.S. gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.62 million barrels, more than estimated, to 208.6 million.

Gasoline for November delivery rose 3.26 cents, or 1.6 percent, to end the session at $2.019 a gallon in New York. Prices dropped 4.1 percent yesterday, the biggest decline since Sept. 23.

Monkey Wrench

“Yesterday, it looked like we were seeing the beginnings of a downward trend,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “Today’s move throws a monkey wrench into that view.”

U.S. fuel consumption dropped 0.8 percent to an average of 18.5 million barrels a day last week, yesterday’s Energy Department report showed. Gasoline demand fell 1 percent to 8.86 million barrels a day.

The gain in the U.S. economy “was bigger than expected, so the market is forgetting yesterday’s build in gasoline,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The focus now is on potential economic growth, and people are ignoring that demand is still off.”

Brent crude oil for December settlement rose $2.18, or 2.9 percent, to end the session at $78.04 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 502,530 contracts as of 3:06 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 546,931 contracts yesterday, 3.7 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.24 million contracts. The exchange has a one-business-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aa8uWlTcGtTc

[taraniterror]

Order filled ~

[the cork]

Oil Falls With Equities Before Report on U.S. Fuel Inventories

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell, trading around $79 a barrel in New York before a report forecast to show that U.S. crude inventories expanded last week.

Oil slipped as European and Asian shares declined, sending the MSCI World Index lower for a seventh day. Crude oil stockpiles rose 1.91 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 23 from 339.1 million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg survey before today’s Energy Department report.

“Oil is losing ground before the U.S. fuel inventories report,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital in London. “The huge inventory overhang we have makes a modest pull-back towards the low $70s likely in coming weeks, before heating oil demand takes the market back up again.”

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 89 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $78.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and traded for $78.92 a barrel as of 12:33 p.m. London time. Prices have gained 77 percent this year and reached a one- year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

Crude oil advanced 1.1 percent yesterday after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stockpiles fell 1 percent to 339.5 million last week. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed U.S. house prices increased from the prior month.

“We do see the global economy continue on its recovery path, and we could see more dollar weakness, which has a positive effect for dollar-denominated commodities,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “As much as underlying fundamentals, we haven’t really seen a huge degree of improvement.”

OPEC Output

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will raise oil output if there’s a “real” shortage of supply, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said yesterday in Ras Laffan, Qatar. The 12-member group is scheduled to meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to review production targets.

“Sometimes the price of oil has no correlation to demand and supply,” al-Attiyah said. “Now what we are seeing is that oil has a strong correlation with the dollar.”

Oil fell 2.3 percent on Oct. 26 when the dollar climbed, reducing investor demand for commodities. The U.S. currency was at $1.4787 per euro as of 12:31 p.m. in London from $1.4804 yesterday. It touched $1.4770 yesterday, the strongest level since Oct. 13.

The dollar has weakened so far this year versus all but one of its 16 major counterparts, including a 5.7 percent drop against the euro.

Inventory Report

An Energy Department report today will probably show that U.S. crude-oil supplies rose 1.91 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 23 from 339.1 million the prior week, according to the median of 16 estimates by analysts before the department’s report, due at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. All respondents forecast a gain.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined 1 million barrels from 169.9 million the prior week, according to the survey.

Brent crude oil for December settlement was at $77.20 a barrel, down 72 cents, at 12:32 p.m. London time. It increased 66 cents, or 0.9 percent, to end the session at $77.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8fj6TOr__2s

[the cork]

Smart advice taraniterror. The buys we make this week will look real smart by Thanksgiving, and that isn't all that far away. GL t.

GLTA !!

[taraniterror]

Order in .395 BUY BUY BUY

[the cork]

Crude Oil Trades Below $79 as Demand Gains Lag Behind Price


Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded below $79 a barrel after falling the most in a month as prices rose at a faster pace than a recovery in demand.

Oil earlier also declined after OPEC’s president said the group may boost production targets at its meeting in December as prices climbed above $75. Crude oil surged to a one-year high of $82 a barrel last week.

“The rally will not sustain,” said Clarence Chu, a trader with options dealers Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “Eventually oil should go back down towards $70. Demand hasn’t really come back.”

Crude oil for December delivery was at $78.79 a barrel, up 11 cents, at 3:18 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it dropped $1.82, or 2.3 percent, to close at $78.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Sept. 24 and the lowest settlement since Oct. 16. Prices have gained 76 percent this year and reached $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

The dollar dropped to $1.4904 per euro as of 6:25 a.m. in London from $1.4876 yesterday in New York. The greenback reached $1.5063 yesterday, the weakest level since August 2008.

“The range for crude has changed to $75-$85, moved up, and the upper limit is at $82 at the moment,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at brokers Newedge in Tokyo. “Unless there is a collapse in the economy, this market would be supported at around $75 a barrel.”

U.S. Stockpiles

An Energy Department report due tomorrow will show that U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of nine estimates by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies in the week ended Oct. 16 climbed 1.3 million barrels to 339.1 million, leaving stockpiles 9.4 percent above the five-year average for the period.

Analysts forecast that inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined last week.

Crack spreads, or the profit from refining crude into heating oil and gasoline, probably rose as refiners on the country’s East Coast shut for maintenance, reducing crude demand and the supply of oil products, Chu said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for 40 percent of global oil output, will meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to review production quotas.

Some member countries are able to pump more oil if the market requires it, OPEC President and Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said in an interview on Oct. 25.

“The price of oil was pushed back below the $80 mark by the thought of OPEC increasing production at their next meeting in December and increased concerns over banking sector liquidity,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle.

Brent crude oil for December settlement was at $77.37 a barrel, up 11 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 3:14 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it declined $1.66, or 2.1 percent, to end the session at $77.26 a barrel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aY3jFMhqv_Lg

[the cork]

Oil Trades Below $79 as Dollar Gain Cuts Demand for Commodities

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded below $79 a barrel after falling the most in a month as the dollar rose, reducing investor demand for commodities to hedge against inflation.

Oil also fell as a surge to a one-year high of $82 a barrel last week increased prices at a faster pace than a recovery in demand. OPEC may boost production targets at its meeting in December as prices climbed above $75, the group’s president said.

“The rally will not sustain, eventually oil should go back down towards $70,” said Clarence Chu, a trader with options dealers Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “Demand hasn’t really come back.”

Crude oil for December delivery was at $78.76 a barrel, up 8 cents, at 11:05 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it dropped $1.82, or 2.3 percent, to close at $78.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Sept. 24 and the lowest settlement since Oct. 16. Prices have gained 76 percent this year and reached $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

“The price of oil was pushed back below the $80 mark by the thought of OPEC increasing production at their next meeting in December and increased concerns over banking sector liquidity,” said Mike Sander, an investment adviser with Sander Capital in Seattle. “The U.S. dollar index jumped up thanks to worries about market instability, helping also to weigh on the price of oil.”

The dollar was near a one-week high versus the euro, trading at $1.4868 per euro at 11:02 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4876 yesterday in New York. The greenback reached $1.5063 yesterday, the weakest level since August 2008.

U.S. Stockpiles

Brent crude oil for December settlement was at $77.33 a barrel, up 7 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:03 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it declined $1.66, or 2.1 percent, to end the session at $77.26 a barrel.

An Energy Department report due tomorrow will show that U.S. inventories of crude oil rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of nine estimates by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Supplies in the week ended Oct. 16 climbed 1.3 million barrels to 339.1 million, leaving stockpiles 9.4 percent above the five-year average for the period.

Analysts forecast that inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined last week.

Crack spreads, or the profit from refining crude into heating oil and gasoline, probably rose as refiners on the country’s East Coast shut for maintenance, reducing crude demand and the supply of oil products, Chu said.

“Seasonally speaking, the crude stocks will build and the products will draw,” said Chu. “Cracks go up.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for 40 percent of global oil output, will meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to review production quotas.

Some member countries are able to pump more oil if the market requires it, OPEC President and Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said in an interview on Oct. 25.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4SqUUDddurA

[headnorthw]

Cork, it's fine. In the absense of buy volumes, it just turned the opposite direction. I really thought this is onto another breakout today or tomorrow chartwise. Well, take it easy, anyone is entitled to buy or sell their shares. Unfortunately, I bought all the shares in the .50s. Now just try to hanging on. Welcome the .40s again! It's just money, don't feel bad.

[the cork]

Yeah, it's gonna happen.

My ex pinched my TXCOQ shares that I got at .19 and I'm so pissed.

Sorry it dropped today, but I'm looking for another entry.

Chit I need time too, I shot my last round at Abi.

Kinda tough now, but don't forget, these are the days that are gonna make us rich. GL head.

GLTA !!

[headnorthw]

Cork, just as I said I'm bullish on these two, they put a smacking on me. Ouch! Have to hold strong and not shake out.

[the cork]

That Puerto Rico Explosion could effect the price of oil, which in turn affects our share price.

Don't know how much of an impact on the world refining capacity it's going to have, but it will undoubtedly have an impact on regional production and supply.

The popular perception will be that it will affect price and supply cause they got to replace a LOT of fuel.

40 massive tanks blew up and burned in high definition TV coverage, and it will be shown all weekend.

With oil prices down the last two trading days, this should accelerate the turn around in oil prices.

Some of the talking heads are talking about increased reserves, and anticipated declines in prices, but that was before this explosion had been factored into the equation.

I say oil makes a sharp move upwards Monday, and TXCOQ will ride that wave.

GLTA !!

[the cork]

More evacuations as Puerto Rico oil blaze burns on
Sat Oct 24, 2009 12:24am EDT

SAN JUAN (Reuters) - Authorities in Puerto Rico on Friday ordered the evacuation of hundreds more residents from homes around a huge fire at an oil depot which spewed a column of toxic black smoke into the sky near the capital San Juan.

Some 130 firefighters, backed by National Guard troops, were still trying to put out the massive fire, hours after an early morning explosion triggered the blaze at the Caribbean Petroleum Corp. storage facility at Bayamon.

After initially destroying 11 tanks at the 40-tank site, the fire spread to at least six more, containing products such as jet fuel, bunker fuel and gasoline. It was one of the largest fires ever in the U.S. Caribbean island territory.

"There are 17 tanks ablaze, and the firefighters are cooling the rest to avoid their explosion," Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno said. He declared a state of emergency in San Juan and four surrounding towns.

As flames licked up to a height of 100 feet over the oil facility, pushing a mushrooming black plume of smoke into the air, Fortuno announced the mandatory evacuation of the Sabana Amelia neighborhood, where around 1,000 to 1,500 people lived. The neighborhood is in the same Catano district from where around 350 people were evacuated earlier.

Despite the size of the blaze, no deaths have been reported, but at least two people were slightly hurt. Schools in the San Juan metropolitan area were closed during the day.

Winds from the south were pushing the huge column of black smoke from the fire out over the Atlantic, away from the population centers, but officials from the National Weather Service were watching for any wind changes that could threaten neighborhoods and require more evacuations.

Governor Fortuno asked residents to stay calm and remain indoors. Officials said they were also watching out for rain, which could mix with the smoke to create toxic rain.

Although officials said the incident was initially being treated as an accident, FBI agents were assisting the authorities in investigating the cause of the explosion.

The U.S. Chemical Safety Board said it was also deploying a six-person team to San Juan to help with the inquiry.

EXPLOSION "LIKE EARTHQUAKE"

Fortuno said security had been protectively stepped up at the island's other oil facilities in the south coast town of Guayanilla and at Yabucoa on the east coast.

Puerto Rican authorities temporarily froze prices of gasoline and other oil products to prevent price gouging, but ruled out any risk of serious fuel shortages.

The early morning explosion which caused the fire rocked the surrounding area, shattering windows in some buildings.

"The heat was incredible. It was an inferno," said firefighter Juan Cruz, one of the first on the scene.

Housewife Tamara Rivera, 37, said she was awakened by a loud explosion in her Puerto Nuevo neighborhood. "I thought it was an earthquake, but when I went outside, I saw the big orange glow. It looked like daylight over there," she said.

Following the blast and fire, the U.S. Coast Guard established a safety zone in the part of San Juan Bay closest to the fire location. No vessels were permitted to enter this zone without prior permission from the Captain of the Port.

But the terminal where tourist cruise lines dock in Old San Juan was not affected, a Coast Guard spokesman said.

The Caribbean Petroleum Corp (CPC) facility also included a 48,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery, but this was not in operation, according to the CPC website. There were no immediate details on the extent of damage from the fire.

CPC has under contract more than 200 service stations in Puerto Rico to market Gulf brand gasoline and diesel.

Residents jammed gasoline stations, fearing a fuel shortage, but Fortuno said the island had enough supplies.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE59N09N20091024

[headnorthw]

I did also picked up almost 100k shares in the .50s these days. Looks like we need much better volumes than this to give it the run. But then seems like it'll run if they let it go at their wish. GL.

[the cork]

Crude Oil Falls a Second Day as Stocks Retreat, Dollar Rebounds

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil dropped for a second day as equities retreated and the dollar rebounded from a 14-month low against the euro.

Oil fell 0.8 percent as U.S. stocks declined on disappointing results at the nation’s largest railroad. The U.S. currency strengthened, curbing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. U.K. gross domestic product unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter, a report showed today.

“The dollar is somewhat stronger and the S&P is down, both of which are sending oil lower,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “There’s also some fundamental news behind this move. The U.K.’s GDP numbers today were disappointing and suggest that the British economy is still in a recession.”

Crude for December delivery fell 69 cents to settle at $80.50 a barrel at 2:40 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 80 percent this year and touched a one- year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.

Industrial shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped, led by railroad stocks, after Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. forecast fourth-quarter profit that trailed analysts’ estimates. The S&P 500 slipped 1.2 percent to 1,079.46, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.1 percent to 9,959.26.

The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.5006 per euro from $1.5033 yesterday. It traded as low as $1.506 earlier today, the weakest level since August 2008.

U.K. Recession

U.K. GDP fell 0.4 percent, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The terrible GDP numbers from the U.K. raise concerns about economic growth in other OECD countries,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis.

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development represents most of the world’s high-income economies such as the U.S., Japan and Germany.

December oil advanced 1.9 percent this week as the dollar fell to its lowest level against the euro since August 2008 and as equities climbed. Futures have risen 12 percent since Oct. 9.

“When the dollar is strong and equities are down, it allows the bearish fundamentals to shine through,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “The supply-and-demand picture remains negative. The demand numbers in this week’s report were extremely poor.”

U.S. Inventories

Crude oil stockpiles rose 1.31 million barrels to 339.1 million last week, the U.S. Energy Department said in a report Oct. 21. The gain left inventories 9.4 percent above the five- year average for the period. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, were 30 percent higher than average, the department said.

Fuel demand dropped 1.4 percent to an average of 18.7 million barrels a day during the week ended Oct. 16, according to the department. Consumption of distillate fuel fell 2 percent to 3.49 million barrels a day.

U.S. supply may climb in coming months because of increased rig activity. The rig count rose to the highest level in seven months this week, with gains in both oil and gas rigs, according to data published by Baker Hughes Inc. Rigs gained by eight, or 0.8 percent, to 1,048, the highest since the week ended March 20. The count rose to a 22-year high last year, peaking at 2,031 in August and September.

Oil may fall next week on speculation that U.S. inventories are sufficient to meet weakening demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 36 analysts. Eighteen analysts, or 50 percent, forecast oil will drop through Oct. 30. Twelve respondents, or 33 percent, said the market will rise and six said prices will be little changed.

OPEC Production

Oil declined yesterday on speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will expand production at a December meeting. OPEC may raise output to keep prices in a range of $75 to $80 a barrel, according to Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri. The 12-member group last agreed to increase supply targets in September 2007.

OPEC is scheduled to meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola.

“The problem with OPEC is that the policy tool they have, changing production, isn’t always effective,” said Adam Sieminski, the chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington. “It didn’t work in July 2008 because they didn’t have the capacity to produce much more. The problem now is that there wouldn’t be buyers for any additional output.”

Prices climbed to a record $147.27 on July 11, 2008 in New York, as rising demand in China and India coincided with a flow of investor money into the commodity markets.

Brent Oil

Brent crude oil for December settlement declined 59 cents, or 0.7 percent to end the session at $78.92 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 385,055 contracts as of 3:11 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 468,980 contracts yesterday, 17 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.23 million contracts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0WtiSYwWqnQ

[faust357]

I've picked up another 10k shares over the last few days. I know this is gonna run hard.and i'll be pissed if I dont load up at these levels.

[the cork]

Crude Oil Poised for Fourth Week of Gains on Economic Recovery

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded above $81 a barrel in New York, poised for a fourth week of gains, on improved prospects for an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil has advanced 3.3 percent this week as U.S. equities gained on better-than-estimated company earnings, boosting speculation that the worst recession since the 1930s is over. Prices also increased as the dollar declined against the euro, adding to the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“It has been led by the equity markets,” said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. Better-than-expected earnings “continue to flag recovering U.S. demand and it puts further downward pressure on the dollar as a lower requirement for risk aversion.”

Crude oil for December delivery traded at $81.15 a barrel, down 4 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:34 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell 18 cents to settle at $81.19. Prices have climbed 82 percent this year.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent to 119.79 as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo as earnings reports from Australia to Japan boosted speculation that rising demand will help the global economy exit from recession.

U.S. stocks also advanced for the first time in three days yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.1 percent, recouping more than half of its retreat over the previous two days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3 percent.

“As we enter the tail-end of the U.S. reporting season, you can look back and say that the report card was better than expected,” Pervan said.

Weaker Dollar

The dollar traded at $1.5033 per euro at 10:22 a.m. in Tokyo, unchanged from yesterday in New York. It earlier reached $1.5060, the weakest since August 2008.

Oil dropped 0.2 percent yesterday on speculation the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members will agree to increase production at a December meeting. OPEC may raise output to keep oil in a range of $75 to $80 a barrel, Secretary- General, Abdalla El-Badri said in London. The 12-member group last agreed to increase targets in September 2007.

An increase in OPEC’s production will depend on prices remaining at $75 to $80 a barrel, as well as on stockpiles returning to the five-year average and the elimination of floating storage, El-Badri told reporters in London.

The 12-member group will meet on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to review output targets.

OPEC accounts for about 40 percent of the world’s oil production. OPEC members agreed in September 2008 that the 11 countries with quotas would trim output by 4.2 million barrels a day to 24.845 million. Iraq is exempt from the quota system.

Brent crude oil for December settlement traded at $79.54 a barrel, up 3 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9:32 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract declined 18 cents to settle at $79.51.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQppt1_Zj1hs

[headnorthw]

faust357, did you buy more these days? Looks like it's trending again chartwise. I've been buying shares these few days. Hope others will see what I'm seeing.

[the cork]

Oil Surges to One-Year High on Lower Dollar, U.S. Fuel Supplies


Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil surged above $81 a barrel in New York to a one-year high as the dollar dropped and a U.S. Energy Department report showed a greater-than-forecast decline in supplies of gasoline.

Oil advanced 2.8 percent as the U.S. currency slipped beyond $1.50 per euro for the first time in 14 months, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Gasoline stockpiles fell 2.21 million barrels, more than twice the median of analyst forecasts, in the week ended Oct. 16, according to the report.

“As long as there’s pressure on the U.S. dollar, there will be upward movement in oil,” said Rachel Ziemba, an analyst at RGE Monitor, an economic research company in New York. “We could see even greater climbs higher, which will put us even further out of whack from the fundamentals.”

Crude oil for December delivery climbed $2.25 to $81.37 a barrel at 2:47 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Oct. 9, 2008. Futures reached $82 a barrel in earlier trading. Prices are up 82 percent this year.

The 16-nation euro increased 0.7 percent to $1.5042 from $1.4945 yesterday. It touched $1.5046, the highest level since August 2008.

“Oil is moving higher because the dollar is going lower,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “The dollar’s drop is telling people who buy crude oil as an alternate currency that oil prices are going to continue to rise.”

Gasoline stockpiles dropped 1.1 percent to 206.9 million barrels last week, the report showed. Inventories were forecast to decrease by 850,000 barrels, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Changing Landscape

“The gasoline number has clearly changed the landscape,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “The industry is seen constraining fuel supply, which is underpinning the market.”

Gasoline for November delivery climbed 6.66 cents, or 3.4 percent, to $2.0543 a gallon in New York, the highest settlement since Aug. 28. Prices rose an eighth day, the longest stretch since July.

“Oil has become a lot like gold, a hedging tool,” said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “Oil is increasingly an indicator of other things. It looks like prices will continue to rise by $5 or $10 a month and I don’t see how this upward movement will stop.”

Gold futures for December delivery rose $5.90, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $1,064.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal reached a record $1,072 on Oct. 14.

‘Toxic Effects’

“There’s no shortage of gold and look at that market,” Emerson said. “The same thing is happening with oil.”

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities advanced 2.1 percent to 284.09, the highest level since Oct. 14, 2008.

“The fact that we broke $80 is very, very hazardous to the health of the recovery in the U.S.,” Boris Schlossberg, a director of currency research at the online foreign-exchange trader GFT Forex in New York, said today on Bloomberg Radio. “One of the very toxic effects of the weak dollar is the higher oil price.”

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 784,000 barrels to 169.9 million, according to the department. Stockpiles climbed to 171.6 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 2, the highest level since January 1983.

Crude Oil Supplies

Inventories of crude oil rose 1.31 million barrels to 339.1 million, the highest level since August, the report showed. Supplies were forecast to climb by 1.5 million barrels. The gain left stockpiles 9.4 percent above the five-year average for the period, the department said.

“There’s still plenty of oil on the market,” said Richard Ilczyszyn, a senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock in Chicago. “The main driver right now is distillate because of the time of year, followed by gasoline and only then by oil.”

Crude oil is poised to top $100 a barrel after breaking out of a five-month range, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. Futures traded between $56 and $75 a barrel from May 8 to Oct. 13.

“We broke out strongly from a five-month period of consolidation,” Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson, said in a telephone interview. “The longer the period that we break out of, the stronger the following move will be.”

Brent crude oil for December settlement climbed $2.45, or 3.2 percent, to end the session at $79.69 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the highest settlement price since Oct. 9, 2008.

Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 561,720 contracts as of 3:15 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 529,451 contracts yesterday, 6.6 percent lower than the average over the past three months. Open interest was 1.22 million contracts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQk9PCgJCOmw

[headnorthw]

This is going to move up again in the next few days as long as the 10day is holding well and going up.

[the cork]

Crude Oil Drops Below $79 as Dollar Climbs, Stockpiles Increase

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York dropped below $79 a barrel as the dollar climbed and an industry report showed an increase in crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil fell for a second day after U.S. equities declined and the dollar rose from a 14-month low against the euro, limiting investor need for commodities to hedge against inflation. The American Petroleum Institute reported that crude supplies rose 3.85 million barrels.

“The U.S. dollar strengthening has helped pull the oil price off its highs,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “The API data showed quite a decent build in crude inventories. That’s probably also a dampening influence on the oil price.”

Crude oil for December delivery dropped as much as 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $78.54 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $78.58 a barrel at 9:31 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract dropped 84 cents, or 1.1 percent, to end the session at $79.12. The November contract expired yesterday at $79.09, down 52 cents.

U.S. stocks fell yesterday as a disappointing report on housing starts overshadowed better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Apple Inc. to Caterpillar Inc. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.6 percent in New York and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.7 percent. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.4 percent at 10:36 a.m. in Sydney.

The dollar gained for a second day against the euro, trading at $1.4921 per euro at 9:53 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4945 yesterday in New York.

Crude Stockpiles

An Energy Department report due today will show that U.S. inventories of oil rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of 15 estimates by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Crude oil inventories rose to 343 million barrels last week, the API report showed, the highest in seven weeks. Gasoline supplies declined 558,000 barrels to 209.8 million. Distillate fuel stockpiles, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, dropped 998,000 barrels to 167 million, the report showed.

The API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires reports be filed with the energy Department for its weekly survey.

Housing starts rose 0.5 percent in September to an annual rate of 590,000 and the pace in August was lower than previously estimated, according to the Commerce Department. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a rate of 610,000.

Brent crude oil for December settlement declined as much as 61 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $76.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $76.69 at 9:27 a.m. Singapore time.

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