TRADING the SPX using Hurst and Elliott

[getmenews]

When the Tran hit 6000, we will get the pullback

regards

[Neo Tape]

If we drop this week into a 5 week/10 week low - it suggests the last 3-4 trading days rally have been a b-wave (of one lesser degree) fakeout

Declining wedges are very common near tops. Next few weeks may be very tradeable. For entertainment purposes only...

[Neo Tape]

We are in a new bull market with the Kitchin cycle bottom of June 2012

4 year cycle doesnt bottom for a few year, so this market has room to run on the upside.

Been awhile since I last posted, hope to post some new charts.

[Neo Tape]

Gann blowoff Top imminent...Feb 27 to Mar 6

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/250/1/February-15-2011-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html

February 11 2011 mclarenreport.net.au
S&P 500 INDEX

Just an update—we still expect this confirmed “blowoff” trend will capitulate into a top between Feb 27 and March 6. That will end this leg and be followed by a sharp correction that will likely not exceed 13 trading days. But there will still need to be a distribution pattern before changing the trend and will either be a test of the high, a three thrust pattern or a broadening pattern.

[Neo Tape]

Bullish RSI divergence on UUP (US Dollar ETF) 4 hour chart

Over next several weeks:

US Dollar - UP
Silver - DOWN
SPX - DOWN
Bonds - UP

[Neo Tape]

yesterdays chart breakdown pattern in silver does not look bullish intermediate term. Strong trends shouldnt have air pockets like that

I think we'll see $25 silver before $35 over the next month

[Neo Tape]

New Moon now temporarily rallying the SPX and Silver. (New moon hits next week)

Bill McLaren wrote: “blowoff” trend will capitulate into a top between Feb 27 and March 6.

[Neo Tape]

Neely Neowave count...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=18195

[Neo Tape]

Update on Hurst 10/20 week SPX selloff

chart from Carl Futia has what I agree the 2 highest probability targets for this upcoming 20 week low - (including my original April 2010 highs target)

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2011/02/update_24.html

[Neo Tape]

Silver now spiking down and ZSL spiking up...this ZSL trade is acting very well...got in 15 minutes before spike.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=62f3d76b-e35a-4ed5-a8ca-1c92adc6c139

Goal for this trade is for spot silver to retreat below the $26 area....putting ZSL up above the $12 area.

[Neo Tape]

Long ZSL @ 8.02

ZSL holding 1.618 fibonacci support and bollinger band support.

When price exceeds the outside limits of a bollinger band and returns back inside it often will signal a short term reversal...notice the reversals near 12/29 and 1/21 from exceeding price....now 2/22...

Chart here:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ecfcef1c-0c3c-43b7-abaa-2a48d47ed6f3

[Neo Tape]

watching ZSL and UUP - (Proshares Ultrashort Silver and Powershares US Dollar bullish) for swing trade.

ZSL last trade $7.90

near term metals selloff may be brewing. if metals selloff US dollar would rally into its 60 week cycle.

ZSL has a bullish CCI divergence setup on daily chart

[Neo Tape]

Gold cycle peak 1/3/2011...

http://www.insiidetrack.com/pdf/011JanuaryGoldCycleHigh.pdf

Latest gold/silver rally does indeed appear to be a bear market rally on the charts.

[Neo Tape]

Carolan video

http://carolan.org/2011/02/finally-2/

[Neo Tape]

Stocks daily cycles

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26455.html

[Neo Tape]

Silver weekly cycles

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26124.html

[Neo Tape]

US Dollar weekly cycles

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26286.html

[Neo Tape]

This 10/20 week Hurst selloff should go down to SPX 1175-1205 over next 4-6 weeks

Thats November 2010 wave 4 support and April 2010 high support.

[Neo Tape]

My current Hurst phasing...

last 20 week low was 10/26/2010 +/-
last 10 week low was 12/31/2010 +/-

which suggests next 10/20 week cluster may cause some weakness over the next 4 weeks.

Drop to SPX 1168-1206 would be healthy for this tired extended bull move. SPX would then be refreshed for a new swing above SPX 1350 into June.

[Neo Tape]

180 day wave target met...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2010/Dec/dec-3.gif



From: Jim Curry
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24826.html

[Neo Tape]

"SPX is starting to skate on 'thin ice'...Once this cycle does turn down, then once again we will be set up for the largest percentage correction seen since coming off the late-August low, a correction that is likely to be in the range of 7-10%"

latest from Jim Curry...
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24826.html

[Neo Tape]

No doubt this is a powerful BULL. I would rather be 300% long, but I've been trying to catch a downward swing that has only been flat.

Bull markets will have the 25%-38% retraces. June 2010 was the 38% retrace from the March 2009-April 2010 move. I still cant rule out a 38% retrace of this late summer rally sometime by December 2010.

Dec 9 is my last key date where any downward swing window would close hard.

Watching 12/9 closely. I'll waive the white flag if the SPX is still above 1200 after 12/9.

[rab120]

In my opinion this is a BULL market which started in march 2009. Could we go back to 666? Maybe...., but from what level? 1600-1800? Do you know the future? I don't.

[Neo Tape]

SPX 1206 is the 61.8% retracement of the downmove from November peak.

All within the confines of a bear market rally....SPX can still have a vicious selloff into next week.

[Neo Tape]

This whole Dow +250 upmove could still be fully erased by Monday Dec. 6.

Bear market rallies are fast and sharp....thats what todays upmove feels like, im unconvinced this is a new bull leg.

[Neo Tape]

If next 2-4 trading days does see a selloff down to the 1140's, there is also a double three scenario that could send the SPX down to 1092 into late December.

Double three may fit the cycles better than a c-terminal.

[Neo Tape]

latest wave count -- there are 2 important cycle lows ahead I have mentioned in previous posts, one in early Dec, one in late Dec, this may be how those cycle lows play out...each waves 3 and 5 of a c terminal...

[rab120]

agreed

[Neo Tape]

Tops are declining which suggests sellers are still in control...should see bottom in 2-4 trading days. Worst case for bulls near term I'm seeing is SPX drops into the 1140's.

[rab120]

THE MARKET IS GETTING OS. Downside is limited.

[Neo Tape]

SPX broke below last weeks lows.....staying short into Dec. 2 - 6

Typically a low will last a few to several days, so far this mornings low was just a few hours suggesting more downside is likely ahead.

[Neo Tape]

I've warned for weeks and weeks about this early December bearish window....concievably the SPX could drop well below 1137.50 but for now thats an initial target...

[Neo Tape]

Some fear has returned to the market which is short term bullish

Ideal situation is c of (2) rally into Friday then (3) of (C) selloff into early December

Here is my chart from last week with labels - price has essentially followed this scenario so far with the big drop starting next week...

[Neo Tape]

15 week highs now due at any time (between Nov. 22-26)

Swing shorts may finally get some downside into next week.

[Neo Tape]

Full Moon lows due this week - 15 week highs due next week - 13 week lows due early December

I re-adjusted the c-wave, I dont think its over yet...

[Neo Tape]

Since the late August Lows, we have had 5 corrections lasting 1-2 trading days....they are as follows (approximate)

8/31 low = 24+ SPX points
9/23 low = 26- SPX points
10/4 low = 25+ SPX points
10/19 low = 26- SPX points
10/27 low = 24+ SPX points

The Gann Rules for a real CIT (Change in Trend) to down is the decline should last longer than 2 TD and must exceed the largest decline which was that 26 SPX points.

So far the SPX has surpassed the 2 TD and 26 point RULE which means the trend has officially turned to down and you should no longer heavily buy dips, but instead sell rallies.

Bottom line is I plan to AGGRESSIVELY short any rally that appears next week based on the Gann trend and my X-wave count.

[Neo Tape]

90 Day Cycle downphases are typically 7 trading days according to Jim Curry...

80% of these have seen their declines lasting 7 trading days off the top. In terms of price, the same 80% have witnessed corrections of 4.4% or better.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/18911/90-day-cycle-looking-for-a-correction

....this suggests a tradeable low between now or Thursday as we are in the '7 trading days off the top' windows from Nov. 5 and Nov. 7.

[Neo Tape]

BGZ back to $11.10 - essentially still at breakeven.

I plan on exiting BGZ later this week on any SPX b of x then trade long BGU or QLD into next weeks c of x rally.

Not giving up on BGZ, just exiting out to re-enter at a lower price.

[Neo Tape]

wave count chart -- may buy some longs on that b of (X) if we have some additional panicky weakness later this week, then next week return to fully short on any wave c rally...

[Neo Tape]

this (C) wave down from Nov. 5 has a clear 5 waves down and looks complete.

Will go long this new (X) wave if there is any b of (X) weakness later this week.

A bullish wave c of (X) will be next weeks 15 week Thanksgiving rally

[Neo Tape]

Here is my chart from Nov. 3 -- Its working well....b-wave topped Nov. 5 and we're now in the c-wave which is trying to bottom after todays selloff.

Next should be an x-wave rally attempt into Thanksgiving week? (15 week highs) that should get completely retraced with a new a-wave selloff into the Dec. 1 lows....

[Neo Tape]

15 week highs are due next week should now see a Thanksgiving bounce (off these SPX 1174.50 lows)

This 15 week cycle caused the April 2010 highs and early August 2010 highs.

Any speculative rally into next week would be another short opportunity for the Dec. 1, 2010 lows.

[Neo Tape]

Spiral Cluster November 8-10....

http://spiraldates.com/?p=617

Most markets have reversed out of this window.....All thats left is wait for December 1 Gann date, which is an expected low.

[Ruslan]

Only few GAPs left unfilled in SPX:
4th Nov 2010 - 1198.34
13th Sept 2010 - 1113.38
15th July 2010 - 910.15
2nd April 2010 - 814.53

All other GAPs were filled, i.e. min of SPX trade on any of following days was lower than high on previos close (except for those mentioned above).

[Neo Tape]

& one more....tickersense most recent poll of the Blawgerz sentiment up near April 2010 highs....

http://tickersense.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c924353ef0133f5adb75f970b-800wi

[Neo Tape]

While bulls are celebrating, I'm still looking at these.....

1. Barrons Front Cover said "Bye Bye Bear"
2. AAII Sentiment highest since January 2007
3. Low volume 2 month rally is riddled with gaps (not typical of a new bull market liftoff but more associated with phoney exhaustion moves)
4. Market is complacent and lacks fear
5. rising VIX

[Neo Tape]

A/H Globex Dow/SP500 futures down another .4% .......looks like b-wave may be confirmed over and c-wave down may have begun.

Never sold my BGZ, I think may patience will pay off into early December.

[Neo Tape]

Interesting chart...

[Neo Tape]

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7107529/

[Neo Tape]

This cant be good for da bulls short term...


AAII Bullish sentiment nearing 60%
http://pragcap.com/bullish-sentiment-soars-roof