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Gold Or Oil: Which Is The Hotter Investment?
Financial innovators have issued a wide variety of financial instruments over the last decade, giving investors exposure to many asset classes that were unavailable in past years. These instruments include ones leveraged to the price of oil and gold, two of the more popular areas for investors. However, this freedom to invest is not without risk, and those interested in exposure here should research carefully before jumping in. (Gold is a very useful investment during periods of instability and high inflation. Check out Why Gold Matters.)
Gold and Oil Performance
Gold has provided an extraordinary return to buy and hold investors over the last 10 years, with the metal rising in price from under $300 per ounce to the current level of approximately $1,425 per ounce. The return on oil over the last 10 years has also been extraordinary with the price moving from less than $20 per barrel in 2001 to the current level of just under $100 per barrel.
Gold Investing Rationale
Investors have historically purchased gold as a hedge against inflation or as a reaction to a financial or political crisis. Many also invest in gold for protection when a currency is being debased or devalued by a government.
Others believe that there are strong fundamental reasons for the increase in the price of gold, as supply increases have lagged the rising demand from the market. The jewelry industry is the largest user of gold, and has seen an increase in demand for gold jewelry from the emerging economies.
Another reason for gold investing is price momentum or trend investing. As more investors pile into gold, the price keeps going up and this performance gets at10tion in the financial media. This, in turn, motivates others to buy so that they dont miss out. This type of behavior has created bubbles in other financial instruments and markets in the past. (Find out more in The Myth About Market Bubbles.)
Oil Investing Rationale
The fundamental investment case for oil is based on increased demand for energy as China, India and other emerging economies accelerate growth above historical baseline levels. This increased demand is difficult for oil producers to meet in the short and medium term as increased production requires large capital investments in multi-year projects. Some have even predicted that the worlds oil supply has peaked and rising prices for oil are inevitable. (Not sure where oil prices are headed? This theory provides some insight. See Oil As An Asset: Hotellings Theory On Price.)
Modern Innovations
Another reason that might explain the increased price of gold and oil is the ease with which investors can get exposure, as the financial industry has created many securities designed to track the performance of gold and oil.
Many of these instruments trade on the major exchanges and are extremely liquid. Investors can buy an instrument on the long or short side of gold or oil, and can leverage that exposure as well.
The SPDR Gold Trust Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is the largest and most liquid gold ETF available (NYSE:GLD), with average daily volume of more than 14 million shares over the last three months. The trust held 1,217.3 metric tons of gold as of March 10, 2011. Another liquid ETF is the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU), which traded an average of 5.5 million shares a day over the last three months.
Looking for penny stocks that skyrocket?
On the oil side, the United States Oil Fund, LP (NYSE:USO) attempts to track the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and is also liquid, with average daily volume of 14 million shares a day.
Buyer Beware
Bullish investors are passionate about the reasons to own oil and gold, and discount any talk that the strong investment performance in either of these are the result of speculation. Investors that are long these might want to think back to other investments over the last decade, where prognosticators sounded just as convinced that nothing could go wrong. Who can forget back in 1999 and 2000 when the consensus said that paying forty times the markets earnings was the right thing to do?
Another item to consider is that the downside of a bubble bursting is usually much more rapid than the ascent. The Nasdaq Composite index peaked in March 2000 and lost 87% of its value over the next thirty months until it reached the trough in September 2002. However, most of the decline occurred by early 2001, or less than a year. The price of oil fell even quicker in 2008, with the price peaking above $140 per barrel, before crashing down 75% in just five months. (These funds make investing in gold, oil or grain an easier prospect.
The Bottom Line
One of the advantages that we have over previous generations is the ease with which modern investors can invest in a wide range of securities providing exposure to asset classes and areas that used to be out of reach. Investing in gold and oil is now easy and cheap for investors, but not without risk.
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Arithmetic scales are useful for short-term charts and trading. Price movements (particularly for stocks) are shown in absolute dollar terms and reflect movements dollar for dollar.
Market Orders direct the broker-dealer to immediately execute either a buy or sell order at the current ‘market price’ – the best bid or offer.
3 Steps To A Profitable ETF Portfolio
Perhaps no vehicle is helping to change the investment landscape more than the exchange-traded fund (ETF). ETFs are baskets of individual securities much like mutual funds with two key differences. First, they can be freely traded like stocks, while mutual fund transactions dont occur until the market closes. Secondly, expense ratios tend to be lower than those of mutual funds because many are passively managed vehicles tied to an underlying index or market sector.
The primary benefit of ETFs is that they can be used to construct entire portfolios that can be traded easily. Also, they are usually well diversified because they are designed to replicate a specific index or sector. (To learn how ETFs are formed, see Introduction To Exchange-Traded Funds and An Inside Look At ETF Construction.)
Building an ETF Portfolio
If you are considering building a portfolio with ETFs, here are some simple guidelines:
1. Determine the Right Allocation. Look at your objective for this portfolio, your return and risk expectations, your time horizon, your distribution needs, your tax and legal situations, your personal situation and how this portfolio fits in with your overall investment strategy to determine your asset allocation. (See Three Simple Steps to Building Long-Term Wealth for a more detailed explanation that incorporates a process recommended by the CFA Institute.)
2. Implement your Strategy. Analyze the available funds and determine which ones will best meet your allocation targets. Phase in your purchases over a period of three to six months.
3. Monitor and assess. Once each year, evaluate your portfolios performance and your allocations in light of your circumstances. (To keep reading about allocation, see Asset Allocation Strategies and Choose Your Own Asset Allocation Adventure.)
We will break down each of these steps in the following sections.
Determine the Right Allocation
If you are knowledgeable in investments, you may be able to handle this yourself. If not, seek competent financial counsel. In determining the right allocation, consider the following:
1. What is your objective (purpose) for the portfolio (e.g., retirement versus saving for a childs college tuition)?
2. What are your risk/return objectives?
3. What is your time horizon? The longer it is, the more risk you can take.
4. What are your distribution needs for the portfolio? If you have income needs, you will have to add fixed-income ETFs and/or equity ETFs that pay higher dividends.
5. Do you have any legal or tax issues that will have an impact on allocation?
6. How does this portfolio fit in with your overall plans and unique situation? It is important to know how this portfolio ties in with your other investments and how much of your net worth will be invested in this portfolio.
Finally, consider some data on market returns. Research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French resulted in the formation of the three-factor model in evaluating market returns. The three-factor model says the following:
1. Market risk explains part of a stocks return. (This indicates that because equities have more market risk than bonds, equities should generally outperform bonds over time).
2. Value stocks outperform growth stocks over time because they are inherently more risky.
3. Small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks over time because they have more undiversifiable risk than their large cap counterparts.
Therefore, investors with a higher risk tolerance can and should allocate a significant portion of their portfolios to smaller cap, value-oriented equities.
Remember that more than 90% of a portfolios return is determined by allocation rather than security selection and timing. Do not try to time the market. Research continually has shown that timing the market is not a winning strategy. (To read more about this subject, see our Financial Concepts tutorial.)
Once you have determined the right allocation for you, you are ready to implement your strategy.
Implement Your Strategy
The beauty of ETFs is that you can select an ETF for each sector or index in which you want exposure.
Once you know the basics, you are ready to select your ETFs. In making your selections, look for products that:
1. Most closely meet your allocation needs for each sector or index
2. Have the most favorable expense ratios
There are a number of product offerings. Following are links to the American Stock Exchange, which has more than 200 listed ETFs, as well as some of the largest ETF managers:
American Stock Exchange:
Managers:
1. Claymore: Offers ETFs designed to provide the investment performance delivered by specialized investment indexes.
2. First Trust: Offers ETFs benchmarked against a number of styles, sectors and special situations.
3. iShares: Owned by Barclays. Offerings across every major domestic index and sector, including fixed income, as well as international ETFs.
4. Powershares: Style, industry, commodity currency specialty access and broad-market ETFs, including the QQQQ (formerly the QQQ).
5. Pro Shares: Uses derivatives, short (selling the asset) and long (buying the asset) index ETFs, including leveraged index ETFs.
6. Rydex: ETFs that seek to capture the performance of equal weighted and segmented indexes and sectors.
7. State Street Global Advisors: Standard and Poors Depositary Receipts (SPDRs), specific sector and index ETFs (including fixed income) and the Streettracks ETFs, as well as tools to help build a portfolio.
8. Van Eck Global: Market Vector brand of ETFs based on special market sectors and countries.
9. Vanguard: Domestic and international index ETFs that cover a range of market segments, investment styles, sectors and industries including bond the bond market.
10. Wisdom Tree: Index ETFs with a fundamental approach toward dividends and core earnings.
The next step is execution. ETFs trade during market hours, so any broker can execute your trades. More often than not, it is prudent to phase in new purchases. Data from The Stock Traders Almanac show that, generally, the equity markets are strongest from November to April and weakest from May to October, which means you may choose to speed up your phase-in time during strong periods and slow it down during weaker months.
Monitor and Assess Your Portfolio
• At least once a year, check the performance of your portfolio. For most investors, depending on their tax circumstances, the ideal time to do this is at the beginning or end of the calendar year. Compare each ETFs performance to that of its benchmark index. Any difference, called tracking error, should be low. If it is not, you may need to replace that fund with one that will invest truer to its stated style.
• Balance your ETF weightings for any imbalances that may have occurred due to market fluctuations. Do not overtrade. A once-annual rebalancing is recommended for most portfolios.
• Do not be deterred by market fluctuations. Stay true to your original allocations. Certain styles will stay out of favor for a while, while others will log abnormally high returns for extended periods.
• Assess your portfolio in light of changes in your circumstances. Keep a long-term perspective. Your allocation will change over time as your circumstances change.
Conclusion
Remember, there are three steps to successfully building a portfolio with ETFs. One, determine the right allocation for you. Two, implement your strategy. And three, monitor and assess your portfolio in the context of your situation. If you follow these steps, you should be able to build a portfolio of ETFs that meets its intended objective.
There were still two more opportunities (days) to get in on the action. On the third day after the breakout, the stock gapped up and moved above 56.
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Benchmark Your Returns With Indexes
Investors look to broad indexes as benchmarks to help them gauge not only how well the markets are performing, but also how well they, as investors, are performing. For those who own stocks, they look to indexes like the S
After Lucent declined, a trading range was established between 40.5 and 47.5 for almost two months (green oval).
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FINRA members must report their short interest positions in all OTC Equity Securities mid-month and end-of-month. Short interest reporting brings more transparency to the short selling activities by member firms, and reduces the possibility of manipulative behavior associated with naked short selling.
How To Invest When Youre Deep In Debt
Its natural that if you have some money saved or invested, you want to see it grow. There are many factors that can prevent this from happening, but for many people, one of the biggest obstacles is debt. If you have debt to deal with - be it a mortgage, line of credit, student loan orcredit card - fear not, you can still learn how to balance your debt with saving and investing .
Types of Debt
Generally speaking, having debt can make it very difficult for investors to make money. In some cases, investing while in debt is like trying to bail out a sinking ship with a coffee cup. In other words, if you have a debt on your line of credit at 7% interest, the money you are investing will have to make more than 7% to make it more profitable than simply paying down the debt. There are investments that deliver such high returns, but you have to be able to find them knowing you are under the burden of debt.
It is important to briefly distinguish the different kinds of debt here:
1. High-Interest Debt - This is your credit card. High interest is relative, but anything above 10% is a good candidate for this category. Carrying any kind of balance on your credit card or similar high-interest vehicle makes paying it down a priority before starting to invest .
2. Low-Interest Debt - This can be a car loan, a line of credit, or a personal loan from a bank. The interest rates are usually described as prime plus or minus a certain percentage, so there is still some performance pressure from investing with this type of debt. It is, however, much less daunting to make a portfolio that returns 12% than one that has to return 25%.
3. Tax-Deductible Debt - If there is such a thing as good debt, this is it. Tax-deductible debts include mortgages, student loans, business loans, investing loans and all the other loans in which interest paid is returned to you in the form of tax deductions. Because this debt is generally low interest as well, you can easily build a portfolio while paying it down.
The types of debt we will cover in this article are long-term low-interest and tax-decductible debt (like personal loans or mortgage payments). If you dont have high-interest debt or, better yet, all your debts are tax deductible, then read on. If you do have high-interest debt, youll need to pay it off before you begin your investing adventure.
Why Invest?
Debt elimination, particularly of something like a loan that will take long-term capital, robs you of time and money. In the long term, the time (in terms of compounding time of your investment) you lose is worth more to you than the money you actually pay (in terms of the money and interest that you are paying to your lender). You want to give your money as much time as possible to compound. This is one of the reasons to start a portfolio in spite of debt (but not the only one). Your investments may be small, but they will pay off more than investments you would make later in life because these small investments will have more time to mature.
The Plan
Instead of making a traditional portfolio with high and low-risk investments that are adjusted according to your tolerance and age, the idea is to make your loan payments in the place of low-risk and/or fixed-income investments. This means that you will be seeing returns from the lessening of your debt load and interest payments rather than the 4-8% return on a bond or similar investment. The rest of your portfolio should focus on the higher-risk, high-return investments like stocks. If your risk tolerance is very low, the bulk of your investing money will still be going toward loan payments, but there will be a percentage that does make it into the market to produce returns for you. (To learn how to design your portfolio, read A Guide To Portfolio Construction.)
Even if you have a high risk tolerance, you may not be able to put as much as youd like into your investment portfolio because, unlike bonds, loans require a certain amount in monthly payments. Your debt load may force you to create a conservative portfolio in that most of your money is being invested in your loans with only a little going into your high-risk and return investments. As the debt gets smaller, you can adjust your distributions accordingly. (To learn more, check out Rebalance Your Portfolio To Stay On Track.)
Conclusion
You can invest in spite of debt. The important question is whether or not you should. The answer is very personal. There is no denying that there can be benefits from getting your money into the market as soon as possible, but there is no guarantee that your portfolio will perform like it needs to. Such things depend on how adept you become at investing.
The biggest benefit of investing while in debt is psychological (as much of finance is). Paying down long-term debts can be tedious and disheartening if you are not the type of person who puts your shoulder into a task and keeps pushing until it is done. For many people who are servicing debt, it seems like they are struggling to get to the point where their normal financial life - that of saving, investing, etc. - can begin. Debt becomes like a limbo state where things seem to be happening in slow motion. By having even a modest portfolio to distract you from the tedium, you can keep your enthusiasm about your finances from ebbing. Knowing that the sun will come up and being able to see the dawn are very different experiences. For some people, building a portfolio while in debt provides a much needed ray of light.
When you open a brokerage account, you must sign a new account agreement. You should carefully review all the information in this agreement because it determines your legal rights regarding your account.
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Support Equals Resistance
Another principle of technical analysis stipulates that support can turn into resistance and vice versa.
Diversifying Your Portfolio With Real Estate And Infrastructure
Real estate is undoubtedly a significant element of asset allocation, and should form a component of any institutional or personal investment portfolio. Also increasing in importance is infrastructure, which has similar advantages to real estate. Based on research at the University of Regensburg in Germany, this article will consider some of the main asset allocation issues in this context.
Both real estate and infrastructure constitute attractive investments for risk-averse investors, especially during bear markets. There are similarities and differences between the two, and you can construct a truly optimal portfolio by fully exploiting them. (For more on optimizing portfolios, see Achieving Optimal Asset Allocation.)
Diversification Through Real Estate and Infrastructure
The diversification benefits of direct and indirect real estate investments are well known, and diversifications role in institutional portfolios has been investigated extensively. The different correlations to those of stocks and bonds are extremely helpful for avoiding portfolio volatility.
In the U.S., there is a huge need to invest in and improve the infrastructure in many respects, so there is plenty of potential in the market. Pretty much all investors should take advantage of this potential to diversify more effectively than ever and in an extremely promising sector.
In the past, infrastructure has received relatively less attention, along with other alternative assets such as commodities and private equity. There has been a move away from the old-school conventional portfolios comprising equities, bonds, cash and real estate.
The allocation to real estate in particular could be affected if alternative investments significantly diversify returns from conventional investments. In fact, infrastructure has become a focus of attention and found its way into institutional portfolios, and to a lesser extent, private ones. (For more on asset allocation, see Five Things To Know About Asset Allocation.)
What makes infrastructure so appealing is that it seems quite similar to direct real estate in terms of big lot sizes and illiquidity, but also offers general stability and stable cash flows. The research on infrastructure lags behind that of real estate, and Tobias Dechant and Konrad Finkenzeller from Regensberg have attempted to bridge this gap.
Portfolio Optimization with Real Estate and Infrastructure
This research project, and earlier work in the field, demonstrates that direct infrastructure is an important element of portfolio diversification, and that firms tend to overallocate to real estate if they do not also invest in infrastructure. This is an important finding given that infrastructure is really helpful for risk-averse investors - especially in equity market downturns.
There is considerable variation in the recommended, relative amounts that should be invested in these two asset classes, The range extends from zero to as high as 70% (mainly in real estate), depending on the time frame, state of the markets and the methods used to derive the optimum.
The maximum total amount usually recommended for real estate and infrastructure allocations is about 25%, which is considerably higher than actual institutional allocations. It is important to note that efficient allocations in practice depend on numerous factors and parameters, and no specific mix proves to consistently superior. (For related reading, see Asset Allocation: The First Step Towards Profit.)
The blend of real estate and infrastructure is also controversial, but one study by Terhaar et al. (2003), for instance, suggests an even split. Some experts believe that about 5% is sufficient for each. In crisis periods, this can be three or even four times higher.
Another important finding is that real estate and infrastructure may be more useful in terms of diversification than through actual returns. Given the controversy on effective asset allocation and the turbulence in real estate markets, this is a major issue. The latter highlights the benefits of using not only real estate, but also infrastructure.
Also significant is the revelation that the targeted rate of return impacts on the appropriate level of real estate. Investors with higher portfolio return targets (who wish to earn more, but with more risk), may wish to devote less to real estate and infrastructure. This depends a lot on the state of these markets in relation to the equity markets in terms of whether the latter is in an upward or downward phase. (Asset allocation takes care of nearly 94% of your portfolios investment profile. For more, see Asset Allocation: One Decision To Rule Them All.)
The exact allocations to real estate and infrastructure depend on various parameters. Apart from the expected rate of portfolio return mentioned above, there is also the issue of how risk is defined. Other relevant factors include attitudes towards infrastructure in general, and how this relates to other alternative investments. In practice, these allocation decisions are complex, and higher or lower optima are therefore possible for different investors at different times.
Conclusions
If there is one thing that remains the top priority for all investors its having a well diversified portfolio. There is simply no substitute for this, but there is a lot of untapped potential in the market. Real estate investment, but also infrastructure, can play a vital role in optimizing portfolios. This mainly pertains to institutions, but also for private investors. Private investors can generally benefit from more diversification.
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A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell.
Real Estate Vs. Stocks: Which Ones Right For You?
Over the years, we have heard the comparisons as to which is the better investment : real estate or stocks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages, and there are several aspects of each that make them unique investments in their own way. To make money with either investment requires that you understand the positives and negatives of both.
Real Estate
Real estate is something that you can physically touch and feel – its a tangible good and, therefore, for many investors, feels more real. Maybe this partially accounts for the high return on the investment, as from 1978-2004, real estate has had an average return of 8.6%. For many decades this investment has generated consistent wealth and long term appreciation for millions of people.
How it Works
Generally, there are two main types of real estate: commercial and residential. While other types exist (mobile home parks, strip malls, apartment buildings, office buildings, store fronts and single family homes), they generally fall into those two categories. Making money in real estate isnt as cut-and-dry. Some people take the home flipping route – searching for distressed properties, refurbishing them and selling them for a profit at a higher market value . Others look for properties that can be rented in order to generate a consistent income.
Generally, a down payment of up to 20% of the purchase price can be made, and the rest can be financed. This gives you leverage, meaning that you can invest in different types of properties with less money down, helping to build your net worth or income that you could make off the properties. While this can be a positive, if this leverage is used incorrectly, you may owe more on the properties than they are actually worth.
Positives
There are many positive benefits to investing in real estate, including depreciation (writing off wear and tear of a commercial property), tax deductions and finally, you can sell the property through what is know as a 1031 exchange, and will not have to pay capital gains taxes, as long as you invest the money into a similar kind of property type.
Negatives
Like all investments , real estate also has its drawbacks. Most importantly, the investment is illiquid. When you invest in a property, you usually cannot sell it right away. In many cases, you may have to hold the property for several years to realize its true profit potential. Also, the closing cost can add up to thousands of dollars, and include taxes, commissions, and fees. Also, real estate prices have a tendency to fluctuate. While long-term prices generally increase, there are times when prices could go down or stay flat. If you have borrowed too much against the property, you may have trouble making the payment with a property that is worth less money than the amount borrowed on it.
Finally, its often hard to get diversified if investing in real estate. However, diversification is possible in real estate, provided that you do not concentrate on the same community and have a variety of different types of property. That being said, there is an additional way that you can be able to diversify in real estate through real estate investment trusts (REITs), under which you can purchase a trust that is invested in a large portfolio of real estate, and will offer you a dividend as a shareholder. However, in general, stocks offer more diversification because you can own many different industries and areas across the entire economy. (Learn more about REITs in our article Investing In Real Estate.)
Stocks
From 1978-2006, stocks have delivered an average return of 13.4%. They can be more volatile than real estate but over the long run they have provided a much better return than real estates 8.6% average.
How They Work
With a stock , you receive ownership in a company. When times are good, you will profit. During times of economic challenges, you may see diminishing funds as the earnings of the company drop. Taking a long-term approach and being balanced in many areas can help build your net worth at a much greater rate, compared with real estate.
As with real estate, financing in stocks allows you to use margin as leverage to increase the overall amount of shares that you own. The downside is that, if the stock position falls, you could have what is known as margin call. This is where the equity, in relation to amount borrowed, has fallen below a certain level and money must be added to your account to bring that amount back up. If you fail to do this, the brokerage firm can sell the stock to recover the amount loaned to you.
Positives
Stocks are very liquid, quick and easy to sell. They are also flexible, and can even be reallocated into a retirement account – tax-free - until you start to withdraw the money. As well, many stocks can do considerably better than real estate in one year. Due to the volatility of some stocks, it is not unusual to see companies that are averaging 20% or even 50% growth in one year.
Negatives
Stocks can be very volatile, especially when the economy or the company is facing challenges. Also, stocks are often emotional investments, and your decisions within the market can often be irrational. Finally, bankruptcy is always in the back of the active stock investors mind – as it should be, as your investment will be dissolved in this instance.
Conclusion
In general, stocks may have the advantage in more categories than real estate. However, real estate seems to be better when it comes to stability and tax advantages. A good compromise may be to own a REIT , which combines some of the benefits of stocks with some of the benefits of real estate. While each area has its own benefits and drawbacks, to decide which one would work well for you depends on your overall financial situation and level of comfort.
If the broker-dealer cannot, or chooses not to, execute the trade internally, they must attempt to execute the trade with another broker-dealer. This often means accessing the security on OTC Markets Group’s OTC Dealer application and ascertaining whether the order is marketable. Marketable orders are orders where the price specified can immediately be executed in the market. Market Orders are, by definition, marketable. Limit Orders are marketable if the limit price is better than or equal to the bid price (for sell orders) or ask price.
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Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls.
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Key points on the benefits of arithmetic and semi-log scale
Arithmetic scales are useful when the price range is confined within a relatively tight range.
The Essentials Of Corporate Cash Flow
If a company reports earnings of $1 billion, does this mean it has this amount of cash in the bank? Not necessarily. Financial statements are based on accrual accounting, which takes into account non-cash items. It does this in an effort to best reflect the financial health of a company. However, accrual accounting may create accounting noise, which sometimes needs to be tuned out so that its clear how much actual cash a company is generating. The statement of cash flow provides this information, and here we look at what cash flow is and how to read the cash flow statement.
What Is Cash Flow?
Business is all about trade, the exchange of value between two or more parties, and cash is the asset needed for participation in the economic system. For this reason - while some industries are more cash intensive than others - no business can survive in the long run without generating positive cash flow per share for its shareholders. To have a positive cash flow, the companys long-term cash inflows need to exceed its long-term cash outflows. (For more, see What Is Money?)
An outflow of cash occurs when a company transfers funds to another party (either physically or electronically). Such a transfer could be made to pay for employees, suppliers and creditors, or to purchase long-term assets and investments, or even pay for legal expenses and lawsuit settlements. It is important to note that legal transfers of value through debt - a purchase made on credit - is not recorded as a cash outflow until the money actually leaves the companys hands.
A cash inflow is of course the exact opposite; it is any transfer of money that comes into the companys possession. Typically, the majority of a companys cash inflows are from customers, lenders (such as banks or bondholders) and investors who purchase company equity from the company. Occasionally cash flows come from sources like legal settlements or the sale of company real estate or equipment.
Cash Flow vs Income
It is important to note the distinction between being profitable and having positive cash flow transactions: just because a company is bringing in cash does not mean it is making a profit (and vice versa).
For example, say a manufacturing company is experiencing low product demand and therefore decides to sell off half its factory equipment at liquidation prices. It will receive cash from the buyer for the used equipment, but the manufacturing company is definitely losing money on the sale: it would prefer to use the equipment to manufacture products and earn an operating profit. But since it cannot, the next best option is to sell off the equipment at prices much lower than the company paid for it. In the year that it sold the equipment, the company would end up with a strong positive cash flow, but its current and future earnings potential would be fairly bleak. Because cash flow can be positive while profitability is negative, investors should analyze income statements as well as cash flow statements, not just one or the other.
What Is the Cash Flow Statement?
There are three important parts of a companys financial statements: the balance sheet, the income statement and the cash flow statement. The balance sheet gives a one-time snapshot of a companys assets and liabilities (see Reading the Balance Sheet). And the income statement indicates the businesss profitability during a certain period (see Understanding The Income Statement).
The cash flow statement differs from these other financial statements because it acts as a kind of corporate checkbook that reconciles the other two statements. Simply put, the cash flow statement records the companys cash transactions (the inflows and outflows) during the given period. It shows whether all those lovely revenues booked on the income statement have actually been collected. At the same time, however, remember that the cash flow does not necessarily show all the companys expenses: not all expenses the company accrues have to be paid right away. So even though the company may have incurred liabilities it must eventually pay, expenses are not recorded as a cash outflow until they are paid (see the section What Cash Flow Doesnt Tell Us below).
The following is a list of the various areas of the cash flow statement and what they mean:
• Cash flow from operating activities - This section measures the cash used or provided by a companys normal operations. It shows the companys ability to generate consistently positive cash flow from operations. Think of normal operations as the core business of the company. For example, Microsofts normal operating activity is selling software.
• Cash flows from investing activities - This area lists all the cash used or provided by the purchase and sale of income-producing assets. If Microsoft, again our example, bought or sold companies for a profit or loss, the resulting figures would be included in this section of the cash flow statement.
• Cash flows from financing activities - This section measures the flow of cash between a firm and its owners and creditors. Negative numbers can mean the company is servicing debt but can also mean the company is making dividend payments and stock repurchases, which investors might be glad to see.
When you look at a cash flow statement, the first thing you should look at is the bottom line item that says something like net increase/decrease in cash and cash equivalents, since this line reports the overall change in the companys cash and its equivalents (the assets that can be immediately converted into cash) over the last period. If you check under current assets on the balance sheet, you will find cash and cash equivalents (CCE or CC
Due to the broad range of OTC companies, OTC Markets Group organizes these securities into tiered marketplaces to inform investors of opportunities and risks.
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Conclusions
Fundamental analysis can be valuable, but it should be approached with caution. If you are reading research written by a sell-side analyst, it is important to be familiar with the analyst behind the report.
Will Corporate Debt Drag Your Stock Down?
When you invest in a company, you need to look at many different financial records to see if it is a worthwhile investment. But what does it mean to you if, after doing all your research, you invest in a company and then it decides to borrow money? Here we take a look at how you can evaluate whether the debt will affect your investment.
How Do Companies Borrow Money?
Before we can begin, we need to discuss the different types of debt that a company can take on. There are two main methods by which a company can borrow money :
1. by issuing fixed-income (debt) securities - like bonds, notes, bills and corporate papers
2. by taking out a loan at a bank or lending institution.
• Fixed-Income Securities
Debt securities issued by the company are purchased by investors. When you buy any type of fixed-income security, you are in essence lending money to a business or government. When issuing these securities, the company must pay underwriting fees. However, debt securities allow the company to raise more money and to borrow for longer durations than loans typically allow.
• Loans
Borrowing from a private entity means going to a bank for a loan or a line of credit. Companies will commonly have open lines of credit from which they may draw in order to meet their cash requirements of day-to-day activities. The loan a company borrows from an institution may be used to pay for the company payrolls, buy inventories and new equipment, or to keep as a safety net. For the most part, loans require repayment in a shorter time period than most fixed income securities .
What to Look for
There are a few obvious things that an investor should look for when whether deciding to continue his or her investment in a company that is taking on new debt. Here are some questions you can ask yourself:
How much debt does the company currently have?
If a company has absolutely no debt, then taking on some debt may be beneficial because it can give the company more opportunity to reinvest resources into its operations. However, if the company in question already has a substantial amount of debt, you might want to think twice. Generally, too much debt is a bad thing for companies and shareholders because it inhibits a companys ability to create a surplus in cash. Furthermore, high debt levels may negatively affect common stockholders, who are last in line for claiming payback from a company that becomes insolvent.
What kind of debt is the company trying to take on?
Loans and fixed-income securities that a company issues differ dramatically in their maturity dates. Some loans must be repaid within a few days of issue while others dont need to be paid for a several years. Typically, debt securities issued to the public (investors ) will have longer maturities than the loans offered by private institutions (banks). Large short-term loans may be harder for companies to repay, but long-term fixed-income securities with high interest rates may not be easier on the company. Try to determine if the length and interest rate of the debt is suitable for financing the project that the company wishes to undertake.
What is the debt for?
Is the debt a company is taking on meant to repay or refinance old debts, or is it for new projects that have the potential to increase revenues? Typically, you should think twice before purchasing stock in companies that have repeatedly refinanced their existing debt, which indicates an inability to meet financial obligations. A company that must consistently refinance may be doing so because it is spending more than it is making (expenses are exceeding revenues), which obviously is bad for investors. One thing to note, however, is that it is a good idea for companies to refinance their debt to lower their interest rates. However, this type of refinancing, which aims to reduce the debt burden, shouldnt affect the debt load and isnt considered new debt.
Can the company afford the debt?
Most companies will be sure of their ideas before committing money to them; however, not all companies succeed in making the ideas work. It is important you determine whether the company can still make its payments if it gets into trouble or its projects fail. You should look to see if thecompanys cash flows are sufficient enough to meet its debt obligations. And do make sure the company has diversified its prospects. (For more on how to analyze corporate debt and refinancing, read Debt Reckoning.)
Are there any special provisions that may force immediate pay back?
When looking at a companys debt, look to see if there are any loan provisions that may be detrimental to the company if the provision is enacted. For example, some banks require minimum financial ratio levels, so if any of the stated ratios of the company drop below a predetermined level, the bank has the right to call (or demand repayment) of the loan. Being forced to repay the loan unexpectedly can magnify any problem within the company and sometimes even force it into a liquidation state.
How does the companys new debt compare to its industry?
There are many different fundamental analysis ratios that may help you along the way. The following ratios are a good way to compare companies within the same industry.
• Quick Ratio (Acid Test) - This ratio tells investors approximately how capable the company is of paying off all of its short-term debt without having to sell any inventory.
• Current Ratio - This ratio indicates the amount of short-term assets versus short-term liabilities. The greater the short-term assets compared to liabilities, the better off the company is in paying off its short-term debts.
• Debt-to-Equity Ratio - This measures a companys financial leverage calculated by dividing long-term debt by shareholders equity. It indicates what proportions of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets.
Conclusion
A company increasing its debt load should have a plan for repaying it. When you have to evaluate a companys debt, try to ensure that the company knows how the debt affects investors, how the debt will be repaid and how long it will take to do so.
OTC trading, as well as exchange trading, occurs with commodities, financial instruments (including stocks), and derivatives of such. Products traded on the exchange must be well standardized. This means that exchanged deliverables match a narrow range of quantity, quality, and identity which is defined by the exchange and identical to all transactions of that product. This is necessary for there to be transparency in trading.
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A defensive strategy might involve the purchase of consumer staples, utilities and energy-related stocks.
When You Should Break Your Personal Finance Rules
Youve heard them time and time again, from parents, teachers, TV pundits and even friends: when it comes to personal finance, there are rules that must be followed to be successful. Like most conventional knowledge, most of these tried and true tidbits no longer apply to many of us. You dont need to look back too far to remember a time when conventional knowledge suggested that real estate values would continue to climb, seemingly forever, or that the Great Depression was an isolated event that could never again be possible, considering how far the worlds economies have come since the 1930s. All that being said, most people will continue to follow the same blueprint of financial rules as the generation before them. However, for those of you more interested in taking a more personalized approach to your personal finances, here are some rules that young adults are never supposed to break, but should consider breaking, anyway.
Saving or Investing a Set Portion of Your Income
Im sure youve heard, more times than you can remember, that by saving just a small amount of your pay check every month you can retire at 60, with an astronomically sized savings. Thats all well and good, when youre 60, but what about the 40 or so years of life from now until then? Usually the amount suggested is around 10%, and although the advice may be justifiable, your circumstances may not suit the strategy. For one, many young adults and students need to think about paying for the biggest expenses of their lifetime, such as a new car, home or post-secondary education. Taking away potentially 10 to 20% of available funds would be a definite setback in making said purchases. Additionally, saving for retirement doesnt make a whole lot of sense if you have credit cards or interest bearing loans that need to be paid off. The 19% interest rate on your Visa would probably negate the returns you get from your balanced mutual fund retirement portfolio, five times over. (For related reading, also see 8 Financial Tips For Young Adults.)
Also, saving your money to travel and experience new places and cultures can be an extremely rewarding experience, for a young person whos still not sure about their path in life. Most people cannot justify a year-long trip around the world when they are paying off a mortgage and car payments, not to mention putting away any extra money into their retirement savings. While being fiscally responsible at a young age is important, and thinking about your future in terms of a savings is crucial, the general rule of saving a given amount each period for your retirement may not be the best choice for young people just getting started in the real world. (For more, see Globetrotting On A Budget.)
Going to University
Although it may not be visible from afar, universities are a big business. Try to think of another industry where businesses can charge tens of thousands of dollars for their services, while at the same time receiving donations from happy old customers and receiving preferential tax treatment from Uncle Sam. Dont get me wrong, I am a big believer in the powers of higher education for individuals and society, as a whole. However, as the first-world shifts more and more positions overseas, and post-secondary enrollments continues to climb year after year, the laws of supply and demand are pointing to the contrary. More and more college grads are leaving school with no job prospects and thousands in student loans, and the importance of a college degree seems like a Catch 22. Employers are hesitant to hire applicants who dont have a college degree, however the number of qualified candidates can often far outnumber the positions needing to be filled.
For some, taking another path can pay off in spades. Looking into vocational schools that offer more specific job training at a much lower cost can get you started in the workforce years before your college counterparts. Jobs in construction, the trades and fire fighting can pay very well, be very rewarding and do not require a college degree. Before doing what the rest of your colleagues are doing, by heading off to university, think about what job you would like to do and whether or not you need to spend four years and $80,000 to do it. (For more, read Top 6 Jobs that Dont Require Degrees.)
Long Term Investing / Investing in Riskier Assets When Youre Young
The rule of thumb for young investors is that they should have a long-term outlook on their investments and stick to a buy and hold philosophy. This rule is one of the easier ones to justify breaking. For one, investors who followed the rules of buy and hold are still stinging from the credit crisis that occurred during 2007 and 2008. Savvy investors find attractive entry and exit points for stocks and use volatility in the markets to their advantage. Being able to adapt to changing markets can be the difference between making money, or limiting your losses, compared to sitting idly by and watching as your hard earned savings shrink. Short-term investing has its advantages at any age.
Now, if youre no longer married to the idea of long-term investing, you can stick to less risky investments, as well. The logic was, since young investors have such a long investment time horizon, they should be investing in higher risk ventures, since they have the rest of their lives to recover from any losses they may suffer. However, if you dont want to take on undue risk in your short to medium-term investments, you dont have to. The idea of diversification is an important part of creating a strong investment portfolio; this includes both the riskiness of individual stocks and their intended investment horizon. Keep in mind that an investment should make sense for both aspects, and youll no longer need to follow these old and tired investing rules.
The Bottom Line
The personal finance realm may have more smart tips and healthy tidbits than any other. Although these convenient rules of thumb are meant as general guidelines for the majority of people, remember that you are an individual. These were just a few personal finance rules that dont work for many young adults, there are countless others. Examine your own situation closely and do what makes the most sense for you financially, and chances are youll end up in the same place these rules are meant for you to reach.
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Arbitrage is the trading strategy that takes advantage of the price differential between two or more markets for the same underlying asset. Investors and traders profit from the price differential by buying at the cheaper price and selling at the higher price or vice versa. In liquid markets, arbitrage is a short-term strategy because traders quickly recognize the imbalance and correct their prices.
It does not matter if it is a stock, market index or commodity. The technical principles of support, resistance, trend, trading range and other aspects can be applied to any chart.
3 Dangers Of Checking Your Stock Portfolio Everyday
The digital age has had a profound impact on global financial markets. Most of the impacts have been advantageous for investors and include the fact that investment information has become readily available and literally right at investor fingertips. This has leveled the investment playing field, with individual investors benefiting as the industry is no longer controlled by a small handful of large banking, brokerage and advisory institutions. Digital information has even revolutionized trading itself as exchange floors are run increasingly by computers, as opposed to physical traders through an open outcry system. (Buying stocks is a careful balance of risk and reward. Learn to identify your risk tolerance and financial goals with these fundamental points. See 4 Key Factors To Building A Profitable Portfolio.)
There are many benefits to vast volumes of data that are readily available to investors, including the ability to check your portfolio in real time via the internet and through the latest smartphone technology. However, the digital age of investing has led to excessive trading, which can be very dangerous to your portfolio. Below is an overview of three of the most serious disadvantages it can place on investors.
Higher Taxes
Checking your stock portfolio everyday and trading too often can increase your tax bill. Taxes on stocks occur only through realized gains, and short-term realized gains are taxed at the same rate as an investors regular income, or namely his or her highest marginal tax rate. Long-term taxable gains are more reasonable at 15%, but this is still much higher than 0, which is what investors pay by holding a stock and locking up appreciation in the form of unrealized gains.
Using options is another shorter term trading strategy that is relatively tax inefficient. Options werent invented as part of the digital age, but the ability to obsess over short-term price fluctuations has made options a more integral part of the trading habits of many investors. As the vast majority of options, including the most common put and call options, are held less than a year, they qualify as short term and are taxed at ordinary income rates. (The option to bolster after-tax stock returns through tax-loss harvesting can reverse investor gloom. check out Tax-Loss Harvesting: Reduce Investment Losses.)
Excessive Trading Costs
Trading stocks often is nearly certain to increase trading costs. Many discount brokers offer equity trades for less than $10 these days, but these trading commissions can still add up for investors that trade excessively. The costs can really add up for day traders as they can rack up hefty trading commissions and must also pay short-term tax rates for realized gains.
Bid and ask spreads are not explicit trading costs, but can greatly affect overall gains in stock portfolios. For liquid securities including blue-chip stocks, the spread is usually not significant. However, for smaller and other illiquid stocks, spreads can be substantial. As the investor must buy at the asking price, or price a seller is willing to offer the security, and sell at the bid price, or price a buyer is willing to pay for the security, a wider spread eats into eventual gains and increases losses should the stock fall in price after purchase. (Discover how investment strategies and expense ratios impact your mutual funds returns. See Stop Paying High Mutual Fund Fees.)
Portfolio Underperformance
Many investment professionals have pointed out that it is extremely difficult to beat the market. The market is usually defined as the Standard
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Current Information - Reporting companies that submit filings to regulators with powers of review and that make the filings publicly available or non-reporting companies that make current information publicly available on the OTC Disclosure and News Service pursuant to OTC Markets OTC Pink Basic Disclosure Guidelines.
Alternative Assets For Average Investors
Alternative assets can bring significant benefits to investment portfolios through diversifying exposure away from traditional fixed income and equity assets. Moreover, alternative assets are no longer the exclusive province of the super-wealthy; if fact, the average retail investor can avail him- or herself of a wide range of alternative asset strategies through traditional vehicles, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded notes (ETNs). This article will serve as a guide to understanding the different types of alternative assets, and how they can be effectively used to enhance portfolio diversification. (For more on the basics of asset allocation, read Asset Allocation Strategies.)
Defining Alternative Assets
Whats an alternative asset? We can, perhaps, start by explaining what an alternative asset is not: it is not a direct fixed-income or equity claim on the assets of an issuing entity. For example, a holder of a senior secured bond owns a claim on certain specified assets of the issuer, like residential property or farm equipment. In the event of liquidation, an issuers secured and unsecured bondholders are paid off according to the seniority of their claims. Equity investors, by definition, own a claim on the residual net worth of the company after all its liabilities have been paid off, whether this amount is a lot or nothing at all.
Single-Asset Alternatives
Alternative assets are none of the above, which is why they are called alternative. An example of an alternative asset is a commodity futures contract. The contract gives its owner the obligation to take delivery of some object of value, like gold or pork bellies or Japanese yen, at some specified point in the future. An option on this futures contract would confer the right (not the obligation) to exercise the contract at one or more defined times during its life, or to let the option expire as worthless. Options and futures are derivatives: they derive their value from an underlying source, such as gold or pork bellies. (To learn the basics of derivatives, read The Barnyard Basics Of Derivatives and Are Derivatives Safe For Retail Investors?)
Pooled Vehicles
In addition to single-asset instruments, the term alternative assets also refers to pooled investment vehicles (multiple investors money is pooled by one manager) constructed to possess a different risk and reward matrix from traditional debt or equity investments. Pooled alternative vehicles can come in the same forms as their traditional counterparts - such as SEC-registered mutual funds or separately managed accounts (SMAs). They can also be unregistered vehicles like hedge funds, venture capitals or private-equity funds. These funds typically employ a combination of securities, some standard and some alternative. (For more on SMAs, read Separately Managed Accounts: A Mutual Fund Alternative.)
Low Correlation and Absolute Return
Alternative assets come in many varieties, but a common thread is their low correlation coefficients with both equities and fixed income. Consider the following chart:
Figure 1
Source: Zephyr
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OTC Link allows broker-dealers to quote any OTC equity security eligible for quoting under SEC Rule 15c2-11. Currently, there are over 10,000 securities quoted on the OTC Link system. Broker-dealers access the OTC Link system either through OTC Markets Group’ OTC Dealer or OTC FIX applications. These applications allow broker-dealers to view all quotes for OTC securities and, if desired, trade those securities through OTC Link.
The stock then proceeded to form two up gaps on 24-Feb and 25-Feb, and finally closed above resistance at 48. This was a clear indication of demand winning out over supply.
Valuing Large-Cap Stocks
Investors seeking to preserve capital in volatile markets might want to consider large-cap stocks, those companies with market capitalizations greater than $10 billion. Doing business globally, they tend to pay dividends, have solid balance sheets and exceptionally large amounts of cash. While perceived to be slow growing, many have the financial might to take advantage of business opportunities that smaller companies just cant. Whether you invest in individual stocks, mutual funds or ETFs, large caps ought to represent a portion of your equity investments.
Why It Should Be Included In Your Portfolio
Conventional wisdom suggests that dividends account for approximately half a stocks total return. Some believe this number is as high as 90%. Clearly, whatever the percentage, dividends are an important weapon in any companys arsenal for rewarding shareholders. Because large-cap companies tend to possess greater free cash flow, their ability to increase the dividend payment each year is, also, greater. A rising dividend, combined with a multinational business possessing pricing power, which is the ability to raise prices routinely, provides investors with a certain amount of inflation protection that many mid- and small-cap stocks dont have. With operations in various parts of the world, large caps are able to go where the growth is, which is why you find many operating in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China. In addition to geographic diversification, large caps provide investors with currency diversification. As the U.S. dollar weakens, companies are able to sell their products more competitively overseas. Smaller businesses are less likely to benefit because a majority of their revenue, often, is domestic in nature. Lastly, and most importantly, many large caps possess solid balance sheets with little debt and large amounts of cash. For many professional advisors, they are the core holdings in any portfolio. (For related reading on free cash flow, see Free Cash Flow: Free, But Not Always Easy.)
Attributes of a Winning Large Cap
Profitability
Whatever the size of company, investors averse to risk should only consider those businesses making money now, and most probably in the future. While reported earnings is the most common way to assess the profitability of a company, there are other tools available to investors such as return on equity and return on capital employed. Whatever investors use, to assess profitability, its even more important to determine the sustainability of those profits because that is what drives stock prices higher. Some guesswork is required. However, its not as scary as you might think. Many large-cap stocks have been public companies for a significant number of years, possessing a track record of increasing profits. The goal, here, isnt necessarily to find a business with an unblemished profit record, but one that is consistent enough that you feel comfortable making a long-term investment. In the end, the best large-caps are, generally, those with good business models and significant competitive advantages over their competitors. Warren Buffett, one of the worlds greatest investors, believes the purchase of stocks be made as if you were buying the entire company, not just a piece of paper. While the numbers are important, it usually comes down to quality. (We look at the Sage of Omahas methodology for evaluating value stocks. For more, see Warren Buffett: How He Does It.)
Financial Health
Like any household, a large-caps financial health is the key to success. Its not enough to be profitable, it should also own more than it owes and be bringing in more cash than it sends out the door. If it isnt doing this, profitability is fleeting. The balance sheet, which details a companys assets, liabilities and shareholder equity, is the first place investors look for an indication of financial health. The capital it employs, to grow its business, comes at a cost. Generally, debt tends to be less expensive than equity because the interest payments are tax deductible. As a result, large caps often have a lower cost of capital, due to easily obtained financing, providing an advantage over smaller companies. While debt can be advantageous to issuing stock, it can also put a business into bankruptcy if its debt gets out of control. Many investors look for a margin of safety, such as total debt less than shareholder equity. In addition to a companys capital structure, investors should concern themselves with free cash flow, the amount of cash generated after covering operational costs and capital expenditures. A good way to judge this is by calculating free cash flow yield. Similar to the earnings yield (inverse of P/E ratio), it measures free cash flow as a percentage of market capitalization. When comparing companies from different industries, its wise to replace market cap with enterprise value, which takes into account differing capital structures. While there are definite exceptions, the strongest businesses tend to be those with high free cash flow and increasing shareholder equity. (For related reading, see Value Investing Using The Enterprise Multiple.)
Dividend Growth
Mentioned previously, dividends are an important component of a stocks total return. That goes double for large caps. Standard
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