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IART($27.40)- I just bought in Wadegarret @ $27.67
I just hope they aren't going bankrupt !
R59- AAOI, good points
I was a bit mixed up, as I thought analysts were raising targets, not lowering.
Wade - AAOI - you're getting years mixed up. Six months ago analysts were estimating EPS of $0.41 for FY24. Their estimates have come DOWN sharply since then, not doubled. For FY24 they are now estimating EPS of (0.09), a loss. FY25 estimates were recently introduced and are $0.87, but that's a long way off and highly uncertain.
Hweb- AAOI
The hope is that MSFT will give AAOI more business than they can handle, as there has been recent news that they expect to keep increasing their data centers. MSFT is AAOIs major customer, and they just gave AAOI a $300M contract. Then again, it was a very disappointing qtr in Q4, and I may decide to sell for now, and make sure things are looking better in guidance for Q2
IART($27.30)- down another 7% ?
I don't get this one. How bad could the news be on May 6 ? The company has been cut by 65% in 3 years, and it's persistent. In the meantime, eps could end up to be at $3+ for fiscal 2024, even without the Boston Factory. This stock is acting like the company may not make it !
AAOI is about to report Q1 results on 5/9. They're on a normal fiscal year. So you're not looking for earnings of .90 for the next 4 quarters? But the 4 quarters after that? Didn't seem to be what you were saying in your post. Hope it works out, but I wouldn't put much faith in a supposed earnings surge in 2025.
INDV (17.45 -1.37) lays an egg for its Q1 report. They missed eps expectations by 0.04, coming at an adj fd eps of 0.37. The year ago quarter was a tough comp in that they had their best margins of the year along with a lower tax rate. They cited several factors for the shortfall: 1) Medicaid disenrollment of approx 20MM patients (70% of their patient population is on Medicaid). This had already been going on prior to this quarter, but it accelerated unexpectedly; 2) A Cyber attack on a payment provider that cost them about 5-7MM from destocking impacts. They reiterated guidance for rev and operating profits for the year, and will be continuing to buy back stock. The guidance assumes that the quarter's numbers were an aberration, and that by Q3 they will have anniversaried the Medicaid disenrollment issue. They also hope to have a primary listing on the US by this summer, so no more 6K filings.
I took down my expectations for the year, but still think there is some decent upside here. It may languish in the 17s or even the 16s for a while, but I still think it could be hitting 52 week highs by year end IF they can get back on track in the 2H. My best guess for FD eps is 1.82 - 1.96, which is a healthy rise over last year's 1.57. FV is still likely in the high 20s, IMO so I'm not selling here.
How do you figure AAOI is going to earn .90 over the next year? Analysts are expecting a loss of (.09) for 2024. And then earnings of .87 for 2025. So I guess you're talking about 2025?
BMY
Sold BMY Today around $47.70 premarket. Just came away completely unimpressed. Could of just been me, but I think the stock is flat to slightly negative money in the coming months. Hence I decided to sell as there were plenty of more impressive reports I've seen the last couple of days out there than this. So I decided to take a small loss and move on. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
CLMB...Climb Channel Solutions Launches Partnership with Automox, Providing Leading Endpoint Management Solution to North American Partners
EATONTOWN, N.J., April 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Climb Channel Solutions, an international specialty technology distributor and wholly owned subsidiary of Climb Global Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLMB), announced the launch of a new partnership with Automox, a leading cloud-native IT automation endpoint management solution, now available to their North American partners.
With the addition of Automox, Climb partners can provide customers the capabilities to save time, eliminate risk, and automate the patching, configuration, and control of all Windows, macOS, and Linux endpoints with one modern IT operations platform. Adding Climb as a distributor is a strategic move for Automox as they expand their channel efforts with the goal of switching to over 50% of business via the channel.
Cooper Herrera, Manager of Channel Sales at Automox, said, “We're proud and excited to partner with Climb Channel Solutions. As the leading cloud-native IT automation endpoint management solution, Automox fits perfectly in Climb's stack of business-critical technologies. Thousands of solution providers, VARs, systems integrators, corporate resellers, and consultants now have access to cloud-native IT automation at scale.”
Automox partners with industry-leading companies to extend the sales reach for Automox's cloud-native IT operations platform. Their dedicated channel team is focused on helping resellers sell across a wide range of market segments, from small-to-medium sized businesses (SMBs) to large, multi-location corporate enterprises - and across all vertical markets.
“We are excited about the addition of Automox to our North American line cards,” says Dale Foster, CEO of Climb Channel Solutions. “It is important to us to continue to bring on leading emerging technology for our partners to satisfy the need of their customers. As automation becomes a focus for tech industry, signing vendors, such as Automox, helps us ensure our partner ecosystem is enabled with the best of the best.”
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/25/2869486/0/en/Climb-Channel-Solutions-Launches-Partnership-with-Automox-Providing-Leading-Endpoint-Management-Solution-to-North-American-Partners.html
NVDA, Tsla expressed plans to buy up
to 50,000 more H100 chips...
around 7:20 in video starts the
Tsla auto and chip review...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/24/tesla-just-shared-some-great-news-for-nvidia-stock/
Meta already buys H100 chips from
NVDA according to video author,
and Meta plans to spend bigger on
Ai in latest updates...
NVDA CEO delivered first DGX H200
Ai chip to a customer today...
https://venturebeat.com/ai/nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-personally-delivers-first-dgx-h200-to-openai/
NVDA stock price on Wednesday
was tweaked lower to hail the intro
of the new product...perhaps...
So we watch...LJ
Looks crooked, Tsla losing in China market
and on gauge items and got
pumped up 12%...
Other companies better able to
compete with China and still showing
good gauge items are getting dropped...
Peon thesis is that you add if you
think something is worth it, and it can
be done without watching TV heads with
scripts written by big money influence
because they want folks shares cheaper...
Still need to catch that one meme picked
by the crowd to beat the negativity bias..
Any good board ideas?...
So we watch...LJ
RUN option premiums are hefty ahead of earnings due out on May 8th, but taper after that .... so lots of volatility is expected ahead of the report. But they're losing lots of money so I'll be on the sidelines.
I do own one solar stock, ENPH, and have been writing covered calls on it and rolling them over weekly. Nice premiums ! And the company is profitable. It's not a cheap stock, but the company has strong long term growth potential.
R59- META, yes & I just bought AAOI
at around $11 today ! The semi stocks are also down after hours, so what chance does any tech stock have tomorrow ! I looked at AAOI, and do find it attractive around $10-$11, as MSFT has said they are planning on even more data centers. Thing is with AAOI is, analysts feel they will post around $.90 over the next year, which is over twice as high as six months ago. IMO this all has to do with the analysts feeling that MSFT will give AAOI all the business they can handle. However I have a feeling AAOI will go down to around $10 or lower before earnings on May 9. I do feel AAOI is a strong hold into earnings at around $10-$11, and I will likely hold.
I'm also tempted to hold IART into earnings on May 6, if the stock is in the $28s or lower the day before.
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/24/24)
Daily Performance
+0.26%
YTD Performance
+1.44%
Overall Performance
+478.47% (Including Options Trading +342.45%)
META down 12% after hours ..... they beat guidance but evidently investors don't like the increased expense and capex guidance - shows how vulnerable these Mag 7 stocks are to a selloff when earnings disappoint in one way or another. This may drag the broader market lower tomorrow. S&P futures are currently down 0.5%.
RUN 10.02 - one of the badly beat-up solar sector stocks. Just bought at $10.02 and sold the $10May3rd call at .62. This transaction equates to roughly 20% per month...what I'm seeking?
Your "those who want to make 1000% return" equates to jibberish imho...
T
I thought the quarter was solid in all the important areas. The plan to get debt down is continuing well. They beat there adjusted eps number. FCF was healthy well on there way in my opinion to hitting the top end if not exceeding FCF targets. Additions on wireless and broadband also healthy. My opinion of T remains unchanged, which mean I'm still pretty positive on it. Just thought I would mention what I thought about the quarter. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.
AAOI- Nibbling @ $11
I think the stock could go to $10, but that's about it before earnings on May 9. MSFT, their largest customer, keeps adding to their supply of data centers. I believe that AAOI could still make $1 going forward 4 quarters, despite the weak Q1 to come. I just don't think it's over for AAOI just yet, and hopefully they come to life again with strong Q2 guidance.
Personally I think the best way to evaluate articles on seeking alpha is to cross check the author against tipranks.com to get a feel for their track record. There are authors with good records and terrible records much like more mainstream sites.
Decent summary of the housing situation thanks. I also think this introduced inefficiency in the economy. Relocation that would normally make sense isn’t happening so there is likely an increased geographic mismatch between labor and job location that would normally be reconciled.
re GL: obviously the easy money has been made; there's some really nasty stuff in the short report so I'd stay away...JMHO
KIK- GL
You obviously were swayed by the short report. What's your take presently ? thanks
Ooh thanks on IMMR. Hadn't seen that. And don't like it one bit. Looks like another Singer fiasco. Still think IMMR could pop on the big EPS next month, but won't buy too many now.
MHO stock up 4% on an 82c beat in eps. New contracts were also up 17% which bodes well for future quarters too. Another home builder, PHM had also reported strong results yesterday. I opened a position in FOR after a recent discussion of it on this board . This is a land development company that sells most of its lots to DHI. FOR sells about 90% of its lots to DHI, the rest to other builders.. That amounts to about 15% of DHI's lots but they want to get that over 30%. That would double FOR sales, and presumably profits. Many builders are pursuing a land light approach, buying ready to go lots from others rather than developing their own. Another builder, NVR, pioneered this approach over 30 years ago and has been very successful. 30 years ago, NVR sold for $6/ share, today it is over $7,000/share!
And the stock actually dropped below $40/share after my post before rebounding 100%! Wish I'd taken my own advice...grrr
SS, PERI($11.60).- I think the bounce may be over
I was thinking about the $9 cash/share. However I think PERI may only receive a 6-7 PE now on eps estimates of around $1.50 on Yahoo, especially with the MSFT contract expiring in Dec coming. Just too much uncertainty about the future of PERI in general
IMMR 7.15 - what's your take on this recent Barnes & Noble undertaking?
https://capedge.com/filing/1058811/0001213900-24-033529/IMMR-8K
I don't get it, neither the substance or the why?
GL $79.00 + $3.24 Anyone who bought around $58.75 could have accumulated a king's ransom! Some pretty positive analyst commentary this morning:
Globe Life shares pricing in 'relatively onerous outcome,' says JPMorgan
TheFlyontheWall.com - Apr 24 07:11 EDT
JPMorgan analyst Jimmy Bhullar believes Globe Life is among the most compelling stocks in the insurance sector, and one that "presents esoteric risk/upside that is not correlated with macro or sector-specific trends." Although there is downside risk to shares if the recent allegations are proven true, the stock price is already discounting a "relatively onerous outcome, even following its recent recovery," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the significant recent volatility in Globe Life shares affirms its view that the stock price is being driven more by fear and technical factors than a fundamental analysis of the economic value of the business under reasonable positive or negative scenarios. It believes management addressed concerns about the most serious allegations - the Renee Zinsky lawsuit and accusations of kickbacks - and provided its justification for not including the Department of Justice inquiry in the annual filing. JPMorgan keeps an Overweight rating on the shares with a $136 price target.
Rebought a few IMMR ahead of the Q1 report next month. Should be a solid comp. Plus they'll recognize that $17.5M from Meta. Which will give them a huge headline earnings number. One-timer sure, but I think it'll cause some kind of spike. I'll be accumulating.
Musk said yesterday "If you've not tried the FSD 12.3, and like I said, 12.4 is going to be significantly better and 12.5 even better than that. And we have visibility into those things. Then you really don't understand what's going on.
It's not possible."
GERN- Can the FDA be bought off ?
FDA said they don't think there is much efficacy for GERNs drug Imtelstat. In addition, they don't think the risk of the side effects(specifically Cytopenias and Nuertopenias) are worth the benefit the drug gives to so few. The Advisory Committee told the FDA on March 14 that there is huge efficacy for Imetelstat, and it met primary and secondary end points in phase 3. They also said the side effect of Cytopenias can be well managed, and the beneifts of the drug far outweigh the risks. They said that around 40% of the patients taking the drug have much improved lives, and are either totally transfusion independent or take far fewer transfusions, even after e year. They said overall hemoglobin levels are much higher for these 40%, and patients just feel much better. They said that being there is just about no treatment for these patients that have MDS(a deadly anemia), the Imetelstat is an option well worth taking, despite the fact that 60% were non respondent, and had to endure side effects while on the drug.
My fear is that there was no logical reason for the FDA to have been so negative in light of a 12 to 2 vote as a suggestion to the FDA to approve the drug. I am concerned that big pharma was swaying their view on Imetelstat, and that if they still are, that FDA approval may not be given on June 16, despite that fact that 97% of time the Advisory Board has a major consensus, the drug gets approved.
DRCT - The analyst at Noble is a shade too optimistic in my opinion with all the latest revelations. If I was an analyst covering this company, my call would be: Abandon Ship!
Hweb- DRCT, I still think a scam
Wonder if they've been bullish on DRCT since the $30's? Many posters on this board thought there was something scammy about this one.
DRCT - Noble says Direct Digital news may cause 'anxiety,' but resolution looks near
TheFlyontheWall.com - Apr 24 08:32 EDT
Noble Capital analyst Michael Kupinski notes that Direct Digital was not able to file its 10-K on time, and, subsequently, received a notification of non-compliance from Nasdaq, adding that the company also disclosed that Marcum is terminating its relationship with the company, citing its inability to verify the company's impressions data. The firm, which expects the company to sign a top 10 US accounting firm within the 30-day Nasdaq window and thinks the audit should be able to ramp quickly, does not anticipate a significant restatement of 2023 financial results. The firm, which is maintaining a Market Perform rating on the shares "for now," thinks the recent news "may cause some anxiety for investors," but believes that "a resolution appears to be near."
TSLA I am still not a big fan of TSLA here. My guess is she will probably fall back again. But I certainly don't have the cajones to short. I do think over the short/mid term, TSLA will become more and more valued as an automobile company. And my guess is also that '25 estimates are still a bit too high (even though they dropped from $8 to $3.41 over the past six months or so).
But then again, I could most definitely be 100% wrong.
best.
Value, now that would explain Wadegarret portfolio
2.4 year gains of 260% !
Do not waste time in reading them, as the damage (the time you waste and bad idea you get) may out weigh the benefit (occasionally you get a good idea)
TSLA up 11+% after hour: Musk has been back into crisis mode (meaning productive) and next 3 years will be crucial!
SSKMP Managed Index (As Of 4/23/24)
Daily Performance
+0.49%
YTD Performance
+1.18%
Overall Performance
+477.33% (Including Options Trading +341.31%)
DRCT - that sounds very scammy !
DRCT - Things got even uglier. According to their NT10-K filing, they were going to file it on or before April 17. Today they issued an 8-K stating that their auditor resigned on April 17. This from the 8-K:
SSKMP Trades
Sell 500 Shares of RCMT
Note that this is a fictional portfolio and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities
R59, Ok,
thanks
Most seeking alpha articles are free ..... signup for a free account.
Just like iHub, a Seeking Alpha subscription is well worth it. Think SA runs about $260/year. But it's tax deductible if you're a full-time trader. And one decent trade idea...and it'll more than pay for itself.
R59- SMCI, I can't read the article
It's making me sign up to read
GM +2.18 to 45.39 after a big earnings beat and raised guidance. Forward PE is a mere 4.8
briefing -
General Motors beats by $0.49, beats on revs; raises FY24 EPS and EBIT guidance (43.21 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.62 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.49 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.13; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $43.01 bln vs the $41.09 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY24, sees EPS of 9.00-10.00 from $8.50-9.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.89 FactSet Consensus. Co also raised FY24 adjusted EBIT to $12.5 billion - $14.5 billion from $12.0 billion - $14.0 billion prior guidance.
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