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Millions worth of deep ITM $SPY calls were just bought to open
By: Cheddar Flow | November 25, 2024
• Wow. Millions worth of deep ITM $SPY calls were just bought to open
This is an unusual quantity
*Above the Ask*
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$SPY Already over $1 Billion worth of sig Dark Pool prints today
By: Cheddar Flow | November 25, 2024
• $SPY Already over $1B worth of sig Dark Pool prints today.
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S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 And Russell 2000 All Defend Post-Election Breakout Last Week
By: Hedgopia | November 25, 2024
Major US equity indices experienced a gap-up breakout on November 6, after it became apparent that the presidential election from the previous day was won by Donald Trump. Last week, those breakouts were successfully retested.
On the 6th, the S&P 500 gapped up 2.5 percent, pushing through horizontal resistance at 5860s going back to mid-October.
By the 11th, the large cap index went on to post a new intraday high of 6017 before sellers showed up. Subsequently, six sessions ago on Friday, it ticked 5853 intraday, where the 50-day moving average lied. This was also a test of 5860s, which until the breakout on the 6th stopped the bulls from mid-October. The level continued to attract bids in the first three sessions last week (Chart 1). By the end of the week, the index was up 1.7 percent to 5969.
The post-election high is now 48 points away. This level can now act as a magnet, although it remains to be seen if a new high will print in the sessions ahead. For nitpickers, the RSI continues to diverge from the price.
Things evolved similarly on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which on the 6th surpassed the prior high of 20691 from July 10. The index then went on to establish a new intraday high of 21182 on the 11th. The downward pressure that followed stopped at 20315 on the 15th; this is where a rising trendline from August 5 lied, and tech bulls continued to defend the support in the next four sessions – that is, the first four sessions last week (Chart 2). When it was all said and done, the index added 1.9 percent last week to 20776, past the July high, albeit by just a little.
The all-time high from the 11th is two percent away and is within reach. As is the case with the S&P 500, momentum could be performing a lot better on the Nasdaq 100.
Speaking of which the daily RSI on the Russell 2000 turned up at the median last Monday. Leading up to that, the small cap index on the 11th came within 17 points of its all-time high (2459) from November 2021 and retreated. Last Tuesday, it ticked 2284 intraday and rallied. This was essentially a retest of 2260s which held firm from mid-July until it gave away on the 6th (Chart 3). After bids started coming in on Tuesday, the week jumped 4.5 percent to 2407.
The prior high from three years ago is now 2.2 percent away. Before the level is attacked, small-cap bulls first need to take care of 2442, which was the high reached on the 11th.
Amidst all this, VIX is back at 15, closing last week down 0.90 points to 15.24. This is an opportunity for volatility bears to take out this support and push the index toward 12-13, which was last tested four months ago (Chart 4).
After VIX tumbled on the 6th, as equities surged, volatility bears did indeed capture 15 in the subsequent sessions, but the downward pressure ended on the 14th at 13.59. The rally that followed petered out at 18.79 last Wednesday. This has now opened up another opportunity to decisively penetrate 15 and test 12-13.
Importantly, on Wednesday when VIX hit 18.79 and headed lower, the daily RSI (41.86) was rejected at the median. The last time this metric hit sub-30 was two years ago. Fingers crossed for volatility bears/equity bulls!
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Asset Class/Key ETF Performance Since Election Day 2024
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 22, 2024
We're just under three weeks past Election Day 2024 and below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes since then using our key ETF matrix.
While it may feel like the stock market has gone gangbusters since the close on 11/5, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 3%, while the mega-cap Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even less at 2.5%.
Both growth and value ETFs are up similar amounts, while currency ETFs like FXB, FXE, and FXY are all down more than 2% as the dollar has rallied.
Looking at sectors, Financials (XLF) is up the most with a gain of 8.3% followed closely by Energy (XLE) at +8.04%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) ranks as the third best sector since 11/5 with a gain of 7.5%. On the downside, Health Care (XLV) is solidly in the red with a drop of 2.4%, and while it's not one of the eleven major sectors, the semis ETF (SMH) is also down 1.7%.
It has been quite the bloodbath in international stocks since Trump's victory on 11/5. Five of the major country ETFs are down more than 6%: China (MCHI), Hong Kong (EWH), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP). Israel (EIS) is one of the few country ETFs that has gained along with Australia (EWA) and Canada (EWC).
We've seen some divergence between commodity ETFs since Election Day. The agriculture ETF (DBA) and natural gas (UNG) are both up solidly, but gold (GLD), silver (SLV), and oil (USO) are all in the red.
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Sentiment: According to the Market Greed/Fear Index, which currently stands at 80.41, investors are overly optimistic
By: Isabelnet | November 25, 2024
• Sentiment
According to the Market Greed/Fear Index, which currently stands at 80.41, investors are overly optimistic.
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Bulls smile when the S&P 500 experiences two consecutive years with returns of 20% or more, as the following year has historically seen a median return of 12.8%, based on data since 1950
By: Isabelnet | November 25, 2024
• Bulls smile when the S&P 500 experiences two consecutive years with returns of 20% or more, as the following year has historically seen a median return of 12.8%, based on data since 1950.
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | November 25, 2024
• Today (8:38 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom Nasdaq 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | November 25, 2024
• Today (8:38 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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$SPX - Sold off when it hit the 1.618 extension at 6010. A breakout above 6010 will lead to at least the 2.0 extension at 6221 by the end of the year. On the other hand, we have the 20 week MA as support in case of a sell off. Given bullish seasonality, a breakout is more likely.
By: CyclesFan | November 24, 2024
• $SPX - Sold off when it hit the 1.618 extension at 6010. A breakout above 6010 will lead to at least the 2.0 extension at 6221 by the end of the year. On the other hand, we have the 20 week MA as support in case of a sell off. Given bullish seasonality, a breakout is more likely.
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CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 34.9k, up 9.9k.
Equity bulls successfully defended a crucial price point this week. On the 6th this month – after Donald Trump was elected president – the S&P 500 gapped up to rally 2.5 percent and in the process take care of horizontal resistance at 5870s going back to mid-October. By the 11th, the large cap index went on to post a new intraday high of 6017 before coming under slight pressure. Selling stopped at 5850s last Friday. The level – or 5860s – kept attracting bids in the first three sessions this week. When it was all said and done, the week finished up 1.7 percent to 5969.
The November 11th high is 48 points away. Odds strongly favor the index in the sessions ahead trudges higher toward that. Amidst this, momentum – as measured by the RSI – continues to act weak.
In the event of downward pressure, the November 6th gap gets filled at 5780s, which the bulls are likely to fight tooth and nail to save. Just above lies the 50-day at 5810. The index has remained above the average since September 11.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 19.8k, up 3.4k.
Nvidia (NVDA) – the most valuable public company – reported its October quarter on Wednesday, and investors were not sure which way to bet, as the stock closed the week essentially unchanged, rising as high as $152.89 and closing at $141.95, thereby leaving behind a large upper wick on the weekly. Fatigue could very well be a factor. The stock is up 187 percent year-to-date. If profit-taking begins in NVDA, the Nasdaq 100 will take its share of pain.
This week, though, the tech-heavy index rallied 1.9 percent to 20776. The all-time high of 21182 was posted on the 11th (this month) and is within reach. Rally odds grow so long as the index remains above 20500s.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net long 3.1k, down 5.2k.
Tuesday’s drop to 2280s was as close as the Russell 2000 got to testing 2260s. This horizontal resistance going back to mid-July was taken out on the 6th when the small cap index gapped up post-election, followed by last Monday’s intraday high of 2442. At that high, the index was merely 17 points from the all-time high of 2459 posted in November 2021 before sellers showed up. But it must be encouraging for small-cap bulls that they were able to absorb the supply before 2260s was breached. Provided that this remains the case, it is their ball to lose.
The index closed this week up 4.5 percent to 2407.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 2.7k, up 401.
Last week, the US dollar index broke through trendline resistance going back to October last year when it ticked 107.05 and headed lower. It began to reverse higher on September 30 this year, after having gone sideways just under 100 for several sessions.
This week, the October 2023 high was taken out as well. For the week, it added 0.8 percent to 107.51, touching 108.07 intraday Friday, with the session leaving behind a large upper wick.
The daily is extremely overbought, so a giveback is possible, with 107 the nearest point where a bull-bear duel is likely to occur.
VIX: Currently net short 8.8k, up 4.4k.
The rally off the November 14th low (13.59) petered out Wednesday as VIX tagged 18.79 and went the other way. By the end of the week, the 200-day (15.91) was slightly breached, ending the week lower 0.90 points to 15.24. This is a support zone. If the index does not stabilize soon, volatility bears will be eyeing 12, or thereabouts.
Also on Wednesday, the daily RSI (41.86) was rejected at the median and looks to want to head lower.
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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 596934 and is trading up about 25% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 601731 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 567400. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 587846.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. We have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 596008 and overhead resistance forming above at 600992. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 11th at 601731, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 14 weeks reaching a high during the week of November 11th at 601731. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.692% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 511926 as it has fallen back reaching only 585529 which still remains 14.37% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken especially since last week was a high. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 11th has exceeded the previous high of 587846 made back during the week of October 14th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 511926 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in April.
Critical support still underlies this market at 501104 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1900365 and is trading up about 26% for the year from last year's settlement of 1501135. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it could now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 2 months going into November reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1936607 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 1776779. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 1878549.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1886528. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 11th at 1936607, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 5th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 14 weeks reaching a high during the week of November 11th at 1936607. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 3.582% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 1570854 as it has fallen back reaching only 1867230 which still remains 18.86% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 1936607 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 1658074 and 1985860. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 11th has exceeded the previous high of 1832734 made back during the week of September 23rd. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 1570854 made the week of August 5th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in April.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1664630 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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$SPX $SPY - Holding the Bullish structure...
By: Sahara | November 22, 2024
• $SPX $SPY - Holding the Bullish structure.
With not exactly a 'Three White Soldier Candle Pattern, yet three white candles are often a bullish omen (Circled).
Tho needs to maintain its hold over the Bi/Daily 12/MA as could also be a Bear 'Pennant'...
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Jefferies sees S&P 500 fair value at 6000 for 2025 year-end
By: Investing | November 22, 2024
Jefferies analysts project the S&P 500 will reach a fair value of 6,000 by the end of 2025, driven by favorable tax policies, deregulation, and market sentiment following the 2024 presidential election.
The forecast is based on a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x and 2026 EPS estimates of $300, which are 4% below consensus expectations, according to Jefferies.
"Our S&P 500 2025 year-end base target is 6000, based on 20x 2025 year-end forward PE and EPS (26F) of 300, which is around 4% lower than consensus," Jefferies wrote.
They highlighted the potential for further upside if corporate tax cuts materialize, potentially boosting EPS by another 5-7%.
Jefferies also outlined scenarios for both bullish and bearish outcomes. In the bull case, the S&P 500 could climb to 6800, assuming a forward PE of 22x (+1 standard deviation) and no EPS cuts, supported by accelerated rate cuts and strong investor sentiment.
In contrast, the bear case envisions a decline to 4700, driven by a 20% EPS cut to $260 and a PE derating to 18x (-1 standard deviation).
The firm identified three major macro themes: the impact of the Trump administration's tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation; sustained elevated real yields due to limited fiscal consolidation; and inflationary pressures from tariffs affecting corporate margins.
"Deregulation should favour smalls-caps, and they also benefit from a corporate tax rate cut more than large-caps.," said Jefferies.
Market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with historical data showing strong post-election gains in the S&P 500.
Buybacks, which are running 19% ahead, are another factor supporting market resilience, according to the firm.
"We like risk," stated Jefferies, reiterating their preference for small-cap biotech over large-cap pharma stocks.
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S&P 500: US stock markets generally perform better in the initial two years when a President is re-elected versus when a new President takes office
By: Isabelnet | November 22, 2024
• S&P 500
US stock markets generally perform better in the initial two years when a President is re-elected versus when a new President takes office.
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$SPY $508 Million Singular Dark Pool Print
By: Cheddar Flow | November 22, 2024
• $SPY $508M Singular Dark Pool Print.
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The 10 Top/Bottom S&P 500 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | November 22, 2024
• Today (8:36 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the S&P 500 Index.
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The 10 Top/Bottom Nasdaq 100 Index percent net change performers
By: Thom Hartle | November 22, 2024
• Today (8:36 CST), the 10 top/bottom percent net change performers in the NASDAQ 100 Index.
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The top 15 most shorted US stocks
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 21, 2024
• Updated the !shorted command tonight. New, better data source. Shows the top 15 most shorted US stocks.
T'is the season to be squeezin' so this may come in handy for short-term squeeze plays that have a catalyst.
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$SPY the next time < 30% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 5-day SMA
By: TrendSpider | November 21, 2024
• The next time < 30% of S&P 500 stocks are below their 5-day SMA.
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$SPX call interest is growing quite a bit at $SPX 5950, as the put/call ratio also flattens out with call volumes growing
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 21, 2024
• $SPX call interest is growing quite a bit at $SPX 5950, as the put/call ratio also flattens out with call volumes growing.
Meanwhile, single stock and ETF options flow decidedly favors call buying as we see a rather sizable amount of short-term speculative longs opened today.
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$QQQ $1 Million OTM Call that expires tomorrow
By: Markets & Mayhem | November 21, 2024
• A $QQQ Whale Has Entered the Casino
$1M OTM call that expires tomorrow
This is highly unusual.
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Money managers Remain Bullish with their exposure to the US Equity markets since last week...
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NAAIM Exposure Index
November 21, 2024 
The NAAIM Number
91.33
Last Quarter Average
80.82
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