dollar rising so market should be selling
but chapman 9/14 ma gave great crossover signal
day 2 rally
daily bb top should get hit
ndx has broken out
ndx daily td 9 count tomorrow
i posted last week put call ratio off the hook
everyone was short and they are getting punished
Alot of markets off sync this year
IWM usually leads with QQQ, it's worse than SPY
This is sooo divergent from spy lol… someone is lieing i guess
Yes but im not following too much on that, i mean conditions are there, plenty of daily divergence down to the 4hr
Guessing what will bring a drop is often difficult, but here it seems like a no brainer, the debt ceiling is in the window anyway, all we need is the forthcoming news that both parties have left the negotiating table. Then they make a deal on the last possible moment, even if it's a temporary funding one.
Price been stalling, u still think this prints this month? Seems tough now IMO, lots of support from 4000-4050.
Price going sideways enough will eventually crack the fork :D
Me thinks next week theres some kind of fireworks
Lol, why not let it hit later. After the bug flush. The DOW not letting it hit it looks like….
Yeahh, NQ looks ready but ES still has to hit the 4280 taget
looks like this was a hit
I think QQQ needs to see ~ 326.5 (almost there) before there is any chance of down
The only problem with this thesis is the daily volume is an issue and this is also looking distributive as the bands are tightening… though it does look like its going up, highs @ 4200 must break on ES and close over.. if there is an increase in volume on monday, they could make the case jerry but without a daily close over 4200 ES… this rally is not to be trusted until then 4220 is heavy as i remember back in the past last year… trust no waves til then yet… til then its a flat market.. 4200-4080 ES futures
es 100 point rally
finished with a poor high
so as long as the pullback is on lower volume and fib .50 holds
rally not done.
the volume was strong. most moves die after no volume at highs
check out may 1.
basil chapman would say as long as the spy 9 ma holds trend up
Oh dam, good point, i didnt even look back that far… kept focusing on this year only
There was lower volume on this move vs the last one… ur conviction to look for downside still must be strong it looks like. Looks similar to February highs now except its more stretched. The longer the consolidation, the faster the move once breaking out
Here's my SPX 30, price is back inside the big blue up fork, yet the smaller purple fork was what we were looking more closely at and price has retested the bottom at this point and if it fails and drops again it will be a good sign of more down.
There's guidelines for Andrews forks that are what I would call "old school" which says a fork rejection isn't confirmed until a line drawn from the origin anchore passing thru the secondary anchor and continued is breached, but that is far too far and vague for me.
Close enough to break it? :D. Got 29 mins left from this message to market close
I needa seem volume end on a. High note today
We're still within the blue up fork on the SPX 30 chart below, we need to trash that up move before I'm right. We can talk about the "old school" then.
Alright sharp shooter. Ur tools are old school, how can i learn? Lol
How to post SC chart.......when you finish you draw all lines on chart any SC chart..
 look at bottom of chart at first line select (Permalink)
[2} pop up small window with two choice click at (copy link)
 that copy link past at IHUB post window .
 click Submit.....the end ..for nice chart .
good Luck for you trading.
I am excited to reposition probably monday/tuesday. Been a frickin sideways range market all year round.
INDU chart, The blue fork is too steep and to reach the ML would have a new all time high and don't think that will happen. The green fork placed so the ML lines up with expected late June high shows the Dow will be hit hard with 14% down in two weeks. The forks are far from perfect and don't always work, but one of the best tools in the box
SPY 1 hr: My current view, at the finish of the up move (possible spike up Mon?) should start the down move to be reached not earlier than mid May and the up move after should be at least 5 weeks or more to exceed Aug highs
Some chart comparisons:
QQEW, the blue up fork has failed yet QQQ has not which brings cause to doubt this is the correct fork position in QQQ
COMPQ with three different fork positions, a bit confusing, read the text
HFTOM, Happy Family Theory of Markets, when one or more member of HFTOM makes new SIGNIFICANT
high or low the others will follow. A recent post of mine commented that there was some failures, NYA a decade or so ago and COMPQ and NDX in 2020 didn't take out 2018 lows. What to watch for, one or two either are early or late and it can be much later that it plays out, this is just another toll in the box and is subject to interpretation. For RUT (IWM as Stockcharts quit having RUT data) we have an unfilled low and the rest of the family is moving on a more recent high now. I do have a theory that is only from memory and would take much time to prove, that the previous needs to finish before the more recent. I would say if the other members all take out the Aug highs then we have an RUT failure, but at this point it has not happened and I have not seen RUT fail yet.
Was waiting on ur updated chart for today, i thought the timing was a bit tight, next week FOMC, and then after is CPI mid may. Kinda lines up right. Oil rose up in april… is a clue of inflation rise, though u probably dont care about the data, it does support ur ideas on the chart. Thanks again! Trying short swing next week again before FOmc Wednesday
Tough day to short, but ES futures still stuck @ 4185 and cant get through.. closing matters today
If they gaps down under spx 4100 i’ll be confident that ur target can possibly hit by next two weeks lol. Options shows volatility may increase in may
I took a short (tza) at the close although it was difficult and the first of the year I had doubt.
SPX pattern actually looks good still, but too many other breaches through the up forks and some too steep forks.
Ur calls have been impeccable, this is such a tight window for such a drop! Awesome timing!
Agreed, my LIS # is 4130
Yes, this could also be a fake rally - next days will tell.
If ES ~ 4103 breaks we could be on the way down again ..
U and snoot have different ideas now, thats a tough trade, this move today needs confirmation as always. I hate the fact that i didnt get a full position yesterday for the long but this still needs to break 4200 to confirm… if it doesnt… oh boy… snoot’s target is a bit low but so far, hes been friggin accurate this year
U calling bluff on this move up?
Current SPY chart, take out the pink line below first around 380 then take out the upper one