Resolute Forest Products Inc (RFP)

[fishhunter]

Analysts at $5.30 now for full year and Q2 and Q3 way too low!

[fishhunter]

Might hurt a little today but in 3 months will be well over $20. Premarket volume today in about nothin.

[fishhunter]

My guess is they saw lumber skyrocketing and decided to sit on 50 mil bf and ship in Q2 rather than Q1. So they took the futures loss to make 10x that in Q2 by shipping at $1250 rather than $780.

[blast1977]

Going to hurt today

[saigai]

not much...how do you lose 37 million on futures...they want to play like that they need to go to the casino

[blast1977]

Sooo what do you think of the 1Q result ?

[saigai]

im sure you are right but it would be a BLAST if i were stupid right

[blast1977]

Can’t be that high but that would be sweet
I hope there are no bad surprise and this should be a good day

[saigai]

is it thursday yet!!!!!...ill make believe im an analyst 5 bucks a share ........call me every name in the book...5 bucks a share....

[fishhunter]

I agree with you.
Every $25 of lumber price improvement results in 48mil of higher operating profit. Using Q4 as a baseline, these means that absolute worse case RFP will have ebitda $350mil higher than Q4. Add another worse case assumption and that adds Eps of at least $2 to the Q4 55cents. I don’t see how Eps could be less than $2.50. No freakin way. Analyst consensus is $1.67.

But even if RFP would somehow miss, no one is gonna sell because Q2 will be so much higher than Q1 due to both lumber and pulp. The numbers are not fathomable to analysts.

So I also see this as a slam dunk for a massive move higher over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

[saigai]

next week earnings...no one will be selling this news..just the opp. they will be mud wrestling for shares.. rfp i s going to blow the numbers out of the water and forwrd guidance will describe a whole new world...i am fully loaded and even though this i all opinion. i am buying more before..already 78% of my port is now rfp...all my eggs in one basket...i dont care

[saigai]

lumber prices limit up again its crazy

[saigai]

the nickel dimers come and go...I WANT wheelbarrows of cash..this is the spot..shame on me for pumping but im on the gold

[saigai]

a yahoo repost

"#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest/ best' offer system March 1st & offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.”

#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.”

#Dallas home builder mid-April color: “Limiting sales in 100% of communities. Can’t sell ahead as costs are rising too quickly. We may stop selling and become a spec builder until costs stabilize.”

#Houston home builder mid-April color: “Increasing prices 2% to 3% a month to keep up with costs.”

#LasVegas home builder mid-April color: “Only selling homes under construction, no dirt sales due to the variability of construction costs. Waiting lists at pretty much every community and restricting investors.”

#Phoenix home builder mid-April color: “Continue restricting sales but priority lists are increasing and buyers seem accustomed to the rising prices and are still anxious to move forward. Price increases each week/each release.”

#Denver home builder mid-April color: “Doing price increases twice a month.”

#RaleighDurham home builder mid-April color: “Opening 4 new neighborhoods and seeing tremendous pre-sale interest (checks, etc… prior to us releasing prices).”

#Nashville home builder mid-April color: “Limiting most of our sales to inventory releases when a home is through the framing stage where a reasonably accurate delivery date can be given.”

#Charlotte home builder mid-April color: “Capping sales at 4 per month for each community, which is frustrating customers. Finished lots are golden.”

#RiversideSanBernardino home builder mid-April color: “Anyone walking in is a buyer. There are no looky-loos. Raising prices at an obscene level.”

#OrangeCounty home builder mid-April color: “Raising prices materially each sales phase release. It’s crazy, but so are our costs. Many of the homes are being bought by investors.”

#Seattle home builder mid-April color: “We have monthly price increases per community. All have escalators in multiple offers we are getting, ranging from $20k to $200k over list price. Offer reviews are pushing pricing beyond our list price by 10% or more.”

#Portland home builder mid-April color: “Can’t price them high enough…they’re selling anyway…for now, at least.”

#Boise home builder mid-April color: “Restricting sales until closer to homes being finished.”

#DC home builder mid-April color: “Increasing prices pretty much everywhere.”

#Boston home builder mid-April color: “When homes are released, they go almost immediately. Sales as strong as I can remember. Pushing price on every release with no resistance.”

#SanJose home builder mid-April color: “Running out of inventory. Sales remain strong, starting to hold back releases until construction can catch up.”

#EastBayCA home builder mid-April color: “Swamped right now. Still seeing a lot of traffic, increases prices and totally sold out with very little (if any) inventory.”

#Indianapolis home builder mid-April color: “Traffic down slightly from March but still well over our normal volume. Restricting sales as demand is still really strong. Stopped taking VIPs because list of interested buyers is longer than the number of lots we have.”

#Chicago home builder mid-April color: “Concern about the overpaying and that when Covid settles down there could be some big hits taken.”

#WestPalmBeach home builder mid-April color: “Sales are still strong although it feels like pricing has peaked, too soon to tell. In certain locations our increases have finally started to slow sales from the frenetic pace.”

#Jacksonville home builder mid-April color: “Sales are restricted to 85% of neighborhoods. Drawings for lots and highest/best offers are some of methods used to select buyers. Continue raising prices, no differences among segments.”

#Jacksonville & #Orlando home builder mid-April color: “Seeing investors back in play in some of our markets. Sales caps in many communities but not all markets yet.”

#Naples & #Sarasota home builder mid-April color: “We dramatically restricted sales in order to keep up with our backlog. Our slowdown is intentional.”

#Orlando, #Jacksonville, #Tampa home builder mid-April color: “Some of our competitors have closed models to traffic or will not release homes until they get past a certain stage.”

#Tampa home builder mid-April color: “We will likely turn off sales early again this month.” THE END"

[blast1977]

I hear you. I bought 300 $10 call options few months back hope to keep doing well until then.

[saigai]

i own 7072 shares and wont sell a one until we hit 40 bucks...i shoudnt talk like that because i have no idea what the mkt sees but i think i found the best value out there. im not a prognosticator just enthusiastic when i think ive got one..good luck hope its a pain free day here!!!

[blast1977]

Yeahhh sorry I m off by a week but the recent pull back is interesting bc lumber keep going up every day

[saigai]

i think results are on the 29th but im looking forward to them whenever..im holding through and beyond good luck

[blast1977]

Do u guys think the actual price already considering the good news or we are going up tomorrow after the results?

[blast1977]

Another &25 up for the lumber

[saigai]

i dont see any trades almost looks halted???

[blast1977]

That’s very good news !!!

[saigai]

it just gets better and better

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resolute-extends-maturity-resets-term-110000430.html

[scbeachbum]

You need to look at Page 65 of their latest 10-K. It shows how much more RFP makes per $25 increase in lumber/pulp/paper. For lumber it's $48M a year. Lumber is limit up nearly every day. RFP averaged $605 lumber last quarter and now lumber trades over $1300. That's 1.3B in additional earnings there at this price or more than the entire $15 share price, plus pulp and paper are up too. You can't find any other companies printing off so much cash. Additionally analyst numbers are way too low, they'll need to be adjusted upward greatly

[saigai]

yeah thats where i got it..gl

[fishhunter]

Yes, I had watched that earlier today. Someone on yahoo finance mentioned it. Interesting, I hope he is right.

[saigai]

fish hunter you gotta watch this

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-04-15/lumber-prices-are-rising-like-i-have-never-seen-before-stinson-dean-video

[fishhunter]

I think the point you were making was a good one. I wouldn’t mind seeing lumber trade in a $900 to $1200 range for the next couple years.

[saigai]

thanks for that. i really dont know much about it

[fishhunter]

No worries yet. On a typical new house, these high lumber prices add $24,000 to the price tag. That equates to only an extra $100/month on a 30 year mortgage. Not insignificant, but not terrible either.

[saigai]

lumber futures limit up again..to be honest..i hope they stabilize or new construction will be only for the millionaires

[saigai]

are you ready to rumble!!!..today we are going to mud wrestle for 2 by 4's

[saigai]

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-housing-starts-increase-more-than-expected-march-2021-04-16/

[saigai]

huge volume...have no idea what monday looks like. but i am in a home appraised for 475k a year ago..place is a museum..hasnt been updated in 25 years ...realtor calls and says there is no inventory i have someone who will give you 600k...hour north of Manhatten...people want homes..they dont want to be trapped on the 45th floor when the next shoe drops...this is not a blip ...covid has changed the way people think permanently...i dont know what kind of valuation we are headed for but im think the hosuing mkt is heading for a double along with lumber futures...anyway ..im staying put..if she offer 750 ill consider...on second thought 900....its only money

[fishhunter]

Now I know where the late day VTSI buying came from! You sold some RFP and bought some VTSI.
Just kidding but a reasonable thing to do!

[fishhunter]

Interest rates. Yesterday I closed on an 18 unit apartment building for $2mil. I borrowed $1.5mil and the bank locked my rate at 3.75% for the next 5 years! And this is a commercial loan which is typically 1% higher than a residential mortgage loan. In 10+ years of buying multi family and commercial buildings it is the lowest rate I have ever gotten. My point is.....the banks sure don’t see higher rates any time soon.

I am still in and will hold for at least another 6 months and perhaps much longer.

[blast1977]

This is a big old resistance to break

[nowwhat2]

Conifex ?.....IFP ?......Man, I've been freaking SLEEPING

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=ca%3Arfp&x=53&y=16&time=100&startdate=6%2F1%2F2019&enddate=5%2F28%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=10&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11



Feb 12th

[Twister]

Bodes very well; but remain watchful of housing!

Lumber already causing substantial increase in new homes cost.
Creeping interest rates another concern but back-burner.
Prices tend to regulate supply/demand themselves.

Just lots of other opportunities available.

[crudeoil24]

Should break $15.00 soon!

RFP

[blast1977]

Looks like some big boys are getting in

[crudeoil24]

Lumber yard prices up 83% ....shortage + inlation in USA bodes well for RFP shareholders.

[Twister]

Yep... Good company; but I sold the stock!

The gem finally got on the radar.

[saigai]

thanks

[saigai]

me and you both

[blast1977]

Tempting to sell as well but there are so much potential left

[Twister]

Been fun, but had to run at $14.50!

Just kept a couple to watch.
And the best of luck to all.
Opportunities abound.

[saigai]

gonna be another good day...all in

[saigai]

will have profit taking for a while wasnt long ago this was a 2 dollar stock

[blast1977]

Lumber still going up but looks like some profit taking today