Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE)

[BottomBounce]

The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI data dropped to 47.0%, down from July's reading of 49. According to consensus estimates, economists were looking for a relatively unchanged reading at 48.9. The gold market was seeing some solid buying momentum ahead of the disappointing data and has since pushed higher in initial to a fresh session high in initial reaction. December gold futures last traded at $1,946.50 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day. $XLRE

[Talc Moan]

Sub 35.00 soon. Still have my Put position.

[Talc Moan]

Still holding. That Oct-Nov bs Pump saved this from going Sub $30 will see if it does come Jan-Feb when the Fed hits us for another .50 imo. That could be the final straw that breaks the Reits back.

[Talc Moan]

Getting there. More pain to come. Could see a Surprise 1.00 bps raise in November. .75 pretty much baked in unless something catastrophic happens within the next few weeks.

[Talc Moan]

No reason for this not to see Sub $20.00 in 2023!

[Talc Moan]

Another new 52week Low. Next Stop sub $30.00

[Talc Moan]

$30-$35 next stop. Yields popped Hard into Close and if Powell goes .50-.75 come November this is going to break down hard into the $20’s.

[Talc Moan]

Next Stop for XLRE is Sub $35.00

You will start seeing ETF’s and Reits fail in 2023. Massive amounts of them are having liquidity issue and Reits have mandatory Cash thresholds and must pay 90% dividends to Shareholders.

[Talc Moan]

XLRE should keep making new 52 week lows over the coming months with a few pops along the way.

Lots of the companies in here are some favorites like AMT and PLD

EVEN THOSE are getting hit hard and Hurricane Ian headed for Florida is not going to do then any help when they both are heavily invested in Florida.

Some of XLRE is Junk as well. So all in all I do think we see sub $30.00 in mid to early 2023.

[Talc Moan]

Long way down to go

[Talc Moan]

The slide keeps getting steeper!

[Talc Moan]

Long way down the slide to go.

[Talc Moan]

Pain Coming.

[Talc Moan]

Zero 2024 Bid fills on Puts this past week! Insane!

[Talc Moan]

Added 2024 Jan puts. Everything is so Frothy at the moment.

[Talc Moan]

Bought More puts here. Jan 2024 looked very undervalued. Don’t think the Put Market is acting right at the moment. The recent run up leads me to believe the Put Market feels a soft landings. The masses are usually wrong and Walmart may have just spooked everyone.

[Talc Moan]

Bought MAY 21 XLRE Puts today Super Cheap... This S&P Commercial and Real Estate Market Index Tracker Euphoria imo is way too out of control.. I am seeing more and More for lease signs everyday and i live in a fairly well area..

We cannot just keep kicking the can down the curb.. At some point we need to face the fact Lots of this recovery is years away...

All these categories imo are way out of whack.. In terms of Puts and Calls for the Real Estate Market...

XLRE Puts
DRV Calls
SRS Calls