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S5, I think that would be just fine. Seems we can't try to market our properties here.
Let's hear what you got.
Cont.:: As a real estate agent, could I discuss techniques and procedures in making a deal? Like a new way to advertise your business, but not selling this concept here?
hmm, wait, that does sound like selling. I don't know!?
S5
Any number of things could be discussed. Real estate trends, markets, interest rates, housing markets, commercial real estate, investment methodologies, etc.
What cannot be done is solicitation, promotion of any product or service, or advertisement.
Dave, I'm not being smart here... what can you talk about on a realestate thread... I just found this the other day.
S5
Folks, you can't market your properties on iHub boards.
If you want appreciation you have to go to Tampa, FL and Milford,CT. Those areas are one of few areas that continue to go up as the whole country drops.
I can't wait for the bottom to drop out again. I believe we're going back to 2002 levels and if the federal reserve doesn't cut rates, we'll go back to 1990's level. Crazy as it sounds. Thanks for this board.
Here's Proof.
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/MSAPRICESF.pdf/$FILE/MSAPRICESF.pdf
Stocks Dive on Subprime Mortgage Worries
<< like this is some sort of suprise... >>
Tuesday March 13, 3:45 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Tumble on Mounting Concerns About Subprime Lenders, Slowing Retail Sales
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks plunged Tuesday, driving the Dow Jones industrials down more than 200 points and erasing all the gains made last week as troubles for subprime lenders piled up.
Investors, bracing for a wilting economy, fled the already deflated subprime mortgage sector while problems increased for lenders such as New Century Financial Corp., Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. and General Motors Acceptance Corp.'s residential unit. Bolstering the belief that the problems are widespread, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that new foreclosures surged to an all-time high in the last quarter of 2006.
The subprime lending worries, coupled with anxiety over the Commerce Department's report Tuesday that U.S. retailers eked out a meager 0.1 percent rise in sales last month, knocked down all three major stock indexes more than 1 percent.
"The market's still jittery, and they're starting to get full-blown concerns over a bleed in the larger subprime mortgage market," said Matt Kelmon, portfolio manager of the Kelmoore Strategy Funds.
The subprime market is a relatively small sector of the U.S. economy, Kelmon noted. But Tuesday's selling was accentuated by options expiring soon and by volatility that has increased since the market's big plunge two weeks ago -- a 416-point drop in the Dow that was caused partially by the problems of subprime lenders, who loan to people with poor credit.
In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 200.92, or 1.63 percent, to 12,117.70. Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 23.62, or 1.68 percent, to 1,382.98, and the Nasdaq composite index slid 40.71, or 1.69 percent, to 2,361.58.
Volume on the New York Stock Exchange, where declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 4 to 1, was high at 1.56 billion shares.
Trading collars were triggered Tuesday afternoon when the New York Stock Exchange Composite index lost more than 180 points. The collars put a chokehold on certain orders, forbidding transactions that capitalize on discrepancies in prices.
Subprime lending jitters and sluggish retail sales drove up bond prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.50 percent from 4.56 percent late Monday.
"Investors are poking around to see how much rotted wood there is here," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer for Harris Private Bank. "It looks like the notion was subprime was contained, and now we're starting to see that maybe this problem has moved into other areas of the market. That's causing investors great concern."
Gold prices fell. The dollar was higher against the euro but lower against other the yen. That movement renewed anxiety about traders unwinding their yen "carry trades," or taking money out of high-yielding dollar assets bought with the low-yielding yen.
There was little good news to keep stocks afloat Tuesday. The Commerce Department said sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.1 percent in February as wintry weather in much of the country kept shoppers away from stores. Investors had expected an increase of 0.3 percent from January.
"I think a big question mark on this is how much of this is weather-related," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management. "We had two or three days during the month which knocked out activity. ... I think it is causing a little bit of alarm short-term."
Several retailers fell following the Commerce Department's report. Federated Department Stores Inc., parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, fell 92 cents, or 2 percent, to $44.02; Wal-Mart Stores Inc. slid $1.05, or 2.2 percent, to $46.21; and Target Corp. fell $1.85, or 3 percent, to $60.38.
Meanwhile, Accredited Home shares plunged $7.09, or 62 percent, to $4.31, after it disclosed its own liquidity problems.
Also, the New York Stock Exchange took steps to delist New Century shares, and the company said the Securities and Exchange Commission was conducting a preliminary inquiry into accounting errors that inflated its loan portfolio.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's quarterly report on the mortgage market confirmed investors' worries that the entire sector is struggling and could weaken further: not only did new foreclosures hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, but late mortgage payments soared to a 3 1/2-year high.
Giving stocks an extra kick lower was a report from General Motors Acceptance Corp., General Motors Corp.'s part-owned financing arm, which reported that its fourth-quarter profit rose but that struggles in its Residential Capital LLC unit was eating into earnings.
Investors trying to determine the breadth of the problems in the subprime sector also pounced on comments from Goldman Sachs. The investment bank said that while the subprime sector showed "significant weakness," the broader credit environment "remained strong." Still, Goldman Sachs fell $1.83 to $200.77, despite record first-quarter profit thanks to strong revenue from trading and investment banking.
Homebuilders took a hit, as lending obstacles could further cripple the struggling housing market. D.R. Horton fell 3.6 percent, Centex Corp. lost 4.7 percent and Toll Brothers dropped 2.5 percent.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 16.66, or 2.11 percent, to 772.34.
Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.66 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.16 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.36 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.15 percent.
Light, sweet crude fell 98 cents to $57.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070313/wall_street.html?.v=31
Day 21: My house is no longer the lowest in the area. Another seller just dropped theirs from $699K to $665K...very motivated. I'm still at $685K.
My place is getting some showings, and it's super clean with new paint and carpet, etc. Two years ago this thing woulda been gone in five minutes. Still hoping I'm in escrow by the end of the month.
Not holding my breath,
bry
Wow. Being able to hold a property because it can pay for itself...what's that like? Pretty much impossible in my area.
Sold most that i had in the last two years and started picking up properties about 1 to 1.5 hours outside NYC. In particular, low income neighborhoods in PA, near Allentown. In the last year, there has been a huge migration of hispanics to these areas. What seemed impossible in the NYC area, is very much possible in PA...owning a home or affording rent.
There's also a lot of development in these areas and most importantly, the properties pay for themselves even if you have to give up 10% to mgmt fees.
Also looking out side Atlanta and in Rochester...but haven't bought anything there yet.
Hey, Dimension...this puppy is located near Monterey, California. 4/2, 1750 sq. ft., 1/3 acre, $685K. I'm actually headed out there now to do some minor touch-up work.
I'm no longer worried about the bad market as I now realise there are more motivated sellers now. That's how I was able to get this one at such a good price. I made improvements, put it back on the market at a really good price, then cross my fingers.
You have anything you're working on?
bry
Where is your property located?
The one good thing about a horrible market you find quite a few more motivated sellers...and that's what we're looking for, right?
Hello all...just found this board today. Looks like I've got a new hangout!
Just put my latest property/project on the market 5 days ago. It's a brutal market here, but this house is the lowest priced in the area and in great shape. My hope is to have it in contract within one month. Could be wishful thinking but we'll see.
Brytex
if ive paid escow ive always paid to the title company directly in ks, mo and tx but maybe ny laws are different.
i know the real estae agents can hold escrow but i always act on behalf of myself so have no idea. never get why people pay agents to buy forsure. sales are questionalbe to each cicumstance but I do not use one and have sold it by simple contractual agrrement.
and never dealt with any of this "Source code escrow agents hold source code of software in escrow just as other escrow companies hold cash. The highly valuable (and often secret) source code is only released by the agent to either party upon specific terms of the escrow agreement"
In some jurisdictions, real estate brokers are considered to act as escrow agents when they accept deposits or earnest money for the purchase of real property. In many jurisdictions, the duties of such agents are codified.
Source code escrow agents hold source code of software in escrow just as other escrow companies hold cash. The highly valuable (and often secret) source code is only released by the agent to either party upon specific terms of the escrow agreement.
sorry. not 100% sure. but i know in nearly all states it is not nessesary unless you want them to do the contract of sale if you are not workign with a realtor. if ny requires it its a crock of chit. id call a local title company and ask them.
Question still remains-is it the law?
im just saying do a contract. give contract to title company and sell property. do not pay an agent or attorney to do that simple task for you. JMO. its how i always do it.
Why engage a title co.? The county court house supplies all the info for free. My question remains.
be ridicolous if so. should just fill out a contract and go to title company.
Is it mandatory in NY state to engage an attorney when one wants to sell his home and/or property?
Where are you located...FL seems to be a huge problem for anyone trying to sell coops/condos.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?Message_id=13176193&txt2find=condo
i recently sold a coop i had bought for $75k. i had originally listed it for $169K and had no problems finding buyers about a year ago. Problem is, the board rejected two of the buyers...finally about two months ago i found a 3rd buyer they liked, but by this time i had lowered the ask to $165K....considering how the market is overall, that's really not too bad at all. In my case, i think it boiled down to the area...coops in this particular area were buffered from the overal market decline due simply to the fact that they are located near NYC. This is because more and more are difficult to afford to live in the city. Therefore you have alot of people looking outside of the city for "affordable" homes. They are still willing to pay good money for properties that have easy access to the city.
I also own a few properties in PA, and the same thing there. Property prices are holding up very well in areas that are about 1.5 to 2 hours from NYC. There's a large migration of hispanics moving into these areas from NYC. There are also some people that work in NYC that do not mind a 1-2 hr commute if it means they can afford a comfortable home.
Not much going on here. FYI, I have had a condo on the market of 1 yr now. Started at 195,000 and todays its at 145,000 and Its cost me 20,000 in payments and Ins.
OUCH!
10 places where not to buy in the next couple of years
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/biz2/newrules_wherenot/6.html
Is there any way to buy a house thru any of the IRA plans out there, and live in it yourself?
don't know exactly, but I think it's going to be more than 20%... depends on a lot of factors including credit score.
welcome, but sorry to hear about the condos. the market has definitely turned to a buyers market.
20% if you do not want to pay PMI.
Home purchase question?
Looking at a home apprasied at 650,000. Asking price is 540,000. I only make 50,000 a year. What would be the least down payment amount possible to insure getting a loan for this home?
Thanks
New here. Looks like some good info. I have some condos I've been trying to sell for 10 mths :(
It's for you!
have him call me, will you?
I hear Billy has all kinds of connections there.
can anyone recommend any trustworthy Management companies and general contractors in Reading or Allentown PA?
thanks
Biggest Drop in 9 Years for New-Home Sales
By REUTERS
Published: March 25, 2006
WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) — Sales of new homes fell 10.5 percent in February, the biggest decline in nearly nine years, while prices fell and the number of homes on the market rose to a record, the government said Friday.
A separate report said new orders for durable goods outside the transportation sector fell short of forecasts, suggesting weakness in business spending plans.
The reports may influence the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rates at its meeting Monday and Tuesday. The Fed is expected to raise borrowing costs for the 15th time since June 2004.
"This is what the Fed wants; they want housing to slow," said Robert B. MacIntosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. "That is the place where they can most affect wealth creation and spending. The Fed is that much closer to being done. I think they are done after next week."
According to the Commerce Department, the sales pace of new single-family homes slowed to an annual rate of 1.08 million units in February, from the downward revised January rate of 1.21 million units.
Economists had expected new- home sales to decline to a rate of 1.20 million units from January's originally reported rate of 1.23 million units.
While new-home sales slowed, supply surged. The number of new homes available for sale climbed to a record 548,000 by the end of the month. At the current sales pace, that represents 6.3 months of supply, the largest inventory of new homes since January 1996, the government report showed.
Median home prices declined for the fourth consecutive month, hitting $230,400 in February, the lowest level since July 2005.
The Commerce Department also said new orders for durable goods rose 2.6 percent in February, twice forecasts, but a drop in demand outside transportation hinted at weakness in business spending.
New orders for durable goods excluding transportation fell 1.3 percent, below Wall Street forecasts for a 0.9 percent rise. Transportation orders surged 13.4 percent.
In addition, orders for nonmilitary capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending, dropped 2.3 percent. Wall Street analysts had expected a 1 percent increase.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/25/business/25econ.html?th&emc=th
Be Warned: Mr. Bubble's Worried Again
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: August 21, 2005
ABBY JOSEPH COHEN, the Goldman Sachs strategist then making a name for herself as Wall Street's optimist in chief, sat directly to Alan Greenspan's right. One chair away was Robert J. Shiller, a largely unknown Yale economist.
Robert Shiller and his wife, Virginia, near the vacation home they bought in 2002 near a Connecticut island. "This is the biggest boom we've ever had," he says, and predicts a bust.
As they ate lunch in a stately dining room at the Federal Reserve that day in December 1996, Mr. Shiller argued that the stock market had risen to irrational levels. In a soft, Midwestern-tinged voice, he asked Mr. Greenspan, the Fed chairman, when the last time was that somebody in his job had warned the public that the stock market had become a bubble.
Mr. Greenspan listened without giving his opinion, and Mr. Shiller went home assuming that he had been farther away from Mr. Greenspan than Ms. Cohen in more ways than one. Three days later, however, driving his son to school in the family Volvo, Mr. Shiller heard on the radio that stocks were plunging because Mr. Greenspan had asked in a speech whether "irrational exuberance" was infecting the markets.
"I may have just started a worldwide stock-market crash," the professor told his wife, Virginia, who accused him of delusions of grandeur.
Today, nine years after his lunch with Mr. Greenspan and five years after the markets finally did crash, Mr. Shiller is sounding the same warning for real estate that he did for stocks. In speeches, in television and radio interviews and in a second edition of his prophetic 2000 book, "Irrational Exuberance," he is arguing that the housing craze is another bubble destined to end badly, just as every other real-estate boom on record has.
These, in short, are his second 15 minutes of gloom. He predicts that prices could fall 40 percent in inflation-adjusted terms over the next generation and that the end of the bubble will probably cause a recession at some point.
Despite being a boyish-looking 59-year-old academic economist with a halting speaking manner, he has become the bugaboo of the multibillion-dollar real-estate industry. Its executives, like many Wall Street economists, say that low interest rates and a growing population will keep house prices rising, even if future increases are smaller than recent ones. On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price climbed to $208,500 in the second quarter, up 14 percent from a year earlier.
"Shiller is predicting the mountain goes into the sea," Robert I. Toll, the chief executive of Toll Brothers, a home builder, said in a recent interview, without having been asked about the economist. "He's selling himself."
To Mr. Shiller, though, it is a question of history, not salesmanship. Most people have never looked at decades and decades of home prices, because such data have been almost impossible to find. Stock-market charts often go back almost a century. Housing charts typically start sometime in the distant decade of the 1970's.
But Mr. Shiller has unearthed some rare historical housing data for other countries. Using old classified advertisements, he was then able to fashion a chart for the United States that goes back to the 19th century.
It all points to an unavoidable truth, he says. Every housing boom of the last few centuries has been followed by decades in which home values fell relative to inflation. Over the long term, the portion of income that families spend on their shelter stays about the same.
Builders become more efficient, as they are doing today. Places that were once sleepy hinterlands, like the counties south of San Francisco or a patch of desert in southern Nevada, turn into bustling centers that take pressure off prices elsewhere. Even now, the United States remains a mostly empty nation.
"This is the biggest boom we've ever had," said Mr. Shiller, who bought into the boom himself in 2002, with a vacation home near one of Connecticut's Thimble Islands. "So a very plausible scenario is that home-price increases continue for a couple more years, and then we might have a recession and they continue down into negative territory and languish for a decade.
"It doesn't even attract that much attention," he continued. "There will be many people thinking it was a soft landing even though prices may have gone down in real terms by 40 percent."
(Page 2 of 2)
MR. SHILLER begins his story 400 years ago, in the country that helped invent the idea of a bubble. In 1585, workers in Amsterdam began to dig a canal through the city. It became known as the Herengracht, or gentlemen's canal, for the fashionable row houses that soon sprang up on its banks. Merchants moved into many of them, and the canal remains one of the city's finest addresses today.
Skip to next paragraph
Build-a-BenchmarkIn recent years, a Dutch economist named Piet M. A. Eichholtz heard about a book from the 1970's that traced the Herengracht's history, including records of every sale. But his efforts to track down a copy failed - until he was browsing through a secondhand bookstore in Amsterdam almost a decade ago, not long after Mr. Shiller's lunch with Mr. Greenspan, and stumbled across one.
It had all the details Mr. Eichholtz wanted.
To translate the sales into an index of prices over the years, Mr. Eichholtz turned to a method invented by Mr. Shiller and a colleague. The United States government uses the same process for its best-known measure of house prices, which is published every quarter by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the chief regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The beauty of the method is that it does a better job of capturing the experience of homeowners than a simple average of house prices does. That average can rise when a bunch of new McMansions get built, even if existing houses have become no more valuable. The Shiller index, by following the same set of houses over many years, tracks the actual financial return that houses produce for their owners.
On the Herengracht, those returns have often been fantastic for 25 or even 50 years at a time. Home prices soared in the first half of the 17th century, around the time of the tulip mania. But they came crashing down in the 1670's, when the prime minister was killed, and partially eaten, by a mob of angry Dutch, and the country nearly disintegrated. Prices lagged inflation during the Napoleonic wars but surged after William became king in 1814 and the country industrialized.
Again and again, the cycle repeats itself. But there is essentially no long-term trend, beyond a general rise in house prices that roughly matches gains in peoples' incomes. As Amsterdam became a global city and its population exploded, demand for homes increased - but so, too, did supply.
PRICES have hardly become more stable over the last 400 years; in fact, they've jumped up and down more in the 20th century than they did during the 18th and 19th. Only the 17th century, that time of cannibalized prime ministers, was more volatile.
"A whole lot of the price increases you see in houses is imaginary, because it's just inflation," said Mr. Eichholtz, a professor at Maastricht University. "People say, 'I have a house. It protects me against the economic imbalances or misfortunes of the country.' The big lesson is that real estate does not give you the protection that people think it does."
A history of Norwegian house prices that Mr. Shiller has found shows the same pattern. As does his index of American house prices, until the blastoff of the last decade. In chart form, it looks eerily similar to the stock chart from his 2000 book.
But this is actually a happy story in many ways. Over the long course of history, families have not been forced to devote an ever-larger chunk of their money to the roof over their heads. They instead can afford better health care, new technologies and - as Mr. Shiller pointed out during lunch this month at a steakhouse in midtown Manhattan - leisurely restaurant meals.
Still, history is easy to forget during times like these. Mr. Shiller says that a steady shift toward freer markets around the world has caused people to think much more about the importance of what they own. The best description, he said, comes from President Bush, who often talks of "an ownership society." (Mr. Shiller has tried, without success, to find out who in the White House had coined the phrase.)
When his undergraduates were reading through old newspapers, they found that stories about house prices were once confined to the back pages of business sections. Today, real estate often seems to be topic A in the national conversation.
Many people have made huge profits from selling homes, and many more have paper profits. When people get together with friends, they want to find a subject that makes others happy, Mr. Shiller says, and real estate fits the bill, just as stocks did in the 1990's.
"It's very much like studying a disease epidemic. It's a contagion," Mr. Shiller said. "When it goes in an up direction, it's very impressive. But it can also work in the down direction."
This psychological approach has been at the core of his work for years. In the 1970's, when his wife was studying psychology, he would soak up the discussions that she and her fellow graduate students had over dinner at the Shillers' house in Delaware. A decade ago, his beliefs about herd behavior led him to his lunchtime conversation with Mr. Greenspan.
Mr. Shiller takes no credit for the phrase "irrational exuberance." He does not remember using it during the conversation. He recently searched through his daily diary, which he keeps on a computer, from the early 1990's and found only one phrase that was at all similar. In 1991, he used "overexuberant" to describe an exercise that had left him feeling sore.
His good friend, Jeremy J. Siegel, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, stumbled upon a 1959 quotation from Fortune magazine in which Mr. Greenspan discussed "over-exuberance" in the financial community. The phrase is probably his. He may even have to dust it off again soon. He recently called some local markets "frothy" but emphasized that there was no national bubble.
Even so, Mr. Shiller has little company for his radical notion that house prices could fall by 40 percent. Many economists say that interest rates are low enough and demand for housing in big urban areas is high enough to keep from prices from falling very far. Mr. Shiller himself confesses to some doubt.
"I don't have any certainty," he said. "I have a lot of humility" about any prediction.
"We do have a shortage of land in the prestige areas, and so there is a potential for them to go up," he added. "But I just know that the trend over the last century has been for new prestige areas to appear."
If he is right, the Herengracht also looks due for one of its occasional corrections. Prices there have doubled, even accounting for inflation, over the last decade or so. It almost seems like they might never fall again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/business/yourmoney/21real.html?th&emc=th