ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ)

[fourdint]

S are even shorter than T so have to be more carefull is all. But probably a good bet that there is more pain ahead in market still.

I want to touch upon interest rates and inflation a bit. And IMO! There are many causes of inflation ...cost push ... wage push ... demand side ... supply side ... . but historically, these inflation causes are due to a overheated ecconomy, and hence, raising interest rates tightens the money supply and cools ecconomy and brings down inflation. To be clear, you have inflation, just at a low rate (desireable). If deflation actually occurs, you're probably entered a depression, but I digress. So, anyways, the important thing is not that there's iinflation but rather the specific cause of that inflation and then to deal with specific cause. I'll cut it short at this point and just say, if the causes are not due to an overheated ecconomy, and you treat it as if it is, without considering the true causes, you'll do more harm then good cause, well, the true causes still exist! And Yes, I do not think an overheated ecconomy is the cause!

[luckydude777]

Thanks. Blessings!

[philg]

Happy to hear you got those S shares LD, wish I did.

[luckydude777]

I exited my T shares that I bought last week for a loss. Not liking the dark clouds building on the horizon for long plays.

Doing okay with my S shares, thank goodness.

[philg]

FNGU - Bank of Montreal MicroSectors FANG Index 3X Leveraged - I'm watching that, I haven't traded it yet. It's a bunch cheaper but has less volume. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNGU?p=FNGU&.tsrc=fin-srch

[philg]

China could attack Taiwan in some manner this year, I'm seeing some financial analysts discussing that as a more serious possibility lately.

[fourdint]

Yes, 50bp, but also 3=4 times this year. That is supposed to be already priced in and thus only have an effect if it differs. I think inflation is main driver at the moment ... and oil bigest inflator.

[luckydude777]

Hasn't Powell been publicly quoted as saying he won't raise rates beyond .50 basis points at a time moving forward?

[philg]

"The week ahead may all come down to what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has to say at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday afternoon."

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/fed-will-raise-raise-rates-next-week-but-powell-may-matter-most.html

[philg]

Rate hike to be announced next week, I don't know which day. Best wishes for everybody's weekend.

[luckydude777]

Decided to stay invested until next week. Monday should be up a little better baring any "catastrophes" that can happen the next two days.

All have a good weekend.

[philg]

My rough calculation puts the start of a bear market (again) when the S & P 500 once again this year gets to 3,837. I likely am off by at least a bit.

Will there be another bounce when and if it does get there?

I would guess it would have to go lower than last month for a bounce but folks I am no expert and could easily be wrong.

I would be grateful for any input.

[luckydude777]

Picked up some shares at $26.74. Will buy more if it drops lower. "No guts - no glory." Or - "Stupid is as stupid does." ???????

[luckydude777]

I'm staying in cash until later today. If they crash this low enough, there might be a small quick rebound before the close, I'm thinking. We'll see ...

[TRAPPER JIM]

I got a couple friends that like up in Michigan.

[luckydude777]

Live in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

[philg]

Nice trade LD.

Traders have been waiting all week for tomorrow's report.

[TRAPPER JIM]

Have a safe trip. I'm just a company driver so I'm not paying for the fuel. Thank God. Where do you live. I'm in Columbus

[luckydude777]

Thanks. Lucked out.

Headed out of town today so won't be watching the Markets. Visiting a friend up in Frankfort, Michigan who has 4th stage lung cancer.

Price of diesel affecting YOU much?

[TRAPPER JIM]

Nice trade

[luckydude777]

Exited my position at $33. Glad to get it. DAQ is undecided IMO.

[luckydude777]

Picked up some T at $31.27 a bit ago. Taking a risk that they'll pump it higher some today.

[fourdint]

Let me know how that works for you. IMO for every optimist article, there is a pessimistic article. So it's up to a person to analyze what is likely and that which isn't and not necessarily with the flow (alerts) as they can and do change in a heartbeat!!! I just view as pump and dumps but i have fallen for them. And yea I eat bananas but am over eating crayons.
Lol.

[philg]

I'm seeing that TDAmeritrade has a variety of alerts, I'm going to give them a try - https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/tools/how-to-set-alerts-stocks-17467

[luckydude777]

Thanks MUCH for saying.

[fourdint]

You short term trade certainly better then my long. I wasn't expecting long, but caught betting wrong way. The correct move was to minimize loss, but I missed thoes opportunities hoping for less losses. I thought about puting more $$ in short plays, which would reduce losses but #1 rule is don't put in more then you can afford to loose! Think I'm there! But I didn't follow rules so that's on me cuz I know better.

For you, I say Keep doing what's working! Its another rule that says work within your knowledge set ... venturing outside of that is one where to get bit.

[luckydude777]

Short term trades is all I can be at peace with at present, my friend. So much to learn in these unsettling times for this rookie.

[fourdint]

QQQ has same trading curve and TQQQ follows that so not specific to that. It's a weighted nasdaq109 so I just watch the FANG stocks as that's where the heaviest weighting is ... them being down usually means TQQQ (and QQQ) down.

[fourdint]

Was wondering ... at least yo were out in AM before the drop. Like everyone has said ... it's unpredictable!

[philg]

If only there was some way to definitively get more luck for those who aren't rich.

[luckydude777]

Thank you much. Sometimes "luck" still visits my keyboard finger tips ... from time to time.

[philg]

Nice trading!

[luckydude777]

Sold all T shares at $34.30. Do NOT like what ProShares is doing with the share price this morning! Jacking it all over the place.

Wait a minute. Maybe this is ProShares definition of "Quantitative Tightening": Squeeze T's value!?

Or PERHAPS ... ProShares KNOWS this market is now going to buck much stronger HEADWINDS????

[luckydude777]

Talk about ProShares stabbing existing T holders in the back 10 - Present ... minutes ago by "readjusting" the share price! (Downwards, of course!)

Lot's of shares getting bought at 09:49 at lower prices. I wonder if T isn't being held down purposely for the big boys to load all boats???

At 09:53 the share price jumps instantly to 34.25 ... up almost $.20 in a blink of an eye. Sure matters WHEN you buy T or S!!!!!!!!!!

[luckydude777]

Picked up even more T shares this morning. My gut says we're going to rally today.

[fourdint]

That seems like a good bet! I expected a bit of consolidation after la great week ... today was good signals so expect a good climb tomorrow.

[luckydude777]

Going to try for another quick flip. Bought T at $33.87 at 14:01

[luckydude777]

Picked up some T shares at $32.46 earlier for a day flip. So far looks like it might have been a winning decision.

Just excited all T at $33.60. Couple grand plus to stuff into the kids' piggy bank.

[jablome]

and_you_know what i said to that BULL. i looked it straight in the eyes and said "ima ride ya"

[jablome]

10year bond up today

[fourdint]

Yea, sorry about that ... was a rant ... I'll reframe!

So I was watching nasdaq100 mini ... it traded over holiday. Actually closed at 12819? Up 130? Thinking that should be the open but open didn't change from friday??? So while it may be up 50 is really down 50 but up 50 from Friday. Strange lol.

[luckydude777]

THANKS for your commentary. Very thought provoking indeed.

[fourdint]

And I forgot tomorrow a Holliday and market closed ... enjoy the extra day@!@

[fourdint]

You don't have to wait for oil prices to transcends into other markets -- its here!

First, people dont seem to realize "Oil" is more than gas and diesel. ... more that jet fuel and heating oil ... more than asphalt for roads, PVC, plastics, and synthetics ... its used in about everything we use! And, of course, transportation cost and adided material costs has to be factored into final products = inflation. And that is one aspect, and a big one. But it's really more complicated.

Oil also suffers from same supply chain issues, acquiring needed materials, the same lack of workers, and added production costs as well as hostile political atmosphere. It certainly isn't just turn a few valves and we have all the oil we desire. Many operators suffered huge losses when oil hit neg prices, crazy as that was ... some just didn't survive, other still in recovery. Yea, and it didn't help with oil leases you can't drill but that is more future issue even though it has to start today. I know the KXL and green lobby certainly hurting but is just part of picture.

I do find it strange they are looking at restarting idle refineries to lower gas prices when that has no effect on oil price/supply that determines gas price -- just can't produce more gas without more oil so seems silly ... but I'm not surprised, just dumfounded.

[luckydude777]

Can't wait for Mr. Biden to start "lobbying" that he needs another trillion or so bill passed so he can help subsidize the truckers' plight (business' plight, actually, that buy and sell physical products) with fuel costs:

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/28/1100246133/oil-inflation-diesel-prices-gas-trucker-farmer-factory

[jablome]

thats where your wrong "charts make the news", not "news makes the charts"

[jablome]

rate hike pause next week, 'they' want 2 tier society not 3... mass layoff due to 'robots' coming in next 2 years. drone package delivery of up to 10 pounds already starting.
AKA "another lockdown"... due to no jobs/no one having money

[fourdint]

I think what you're saying is, since we broke above and outside the downward wedge, we entered an upward wedge ... provided it's not a dead cat bounce or a bull trap. I dont think it is biut i also didn't find the data points to build an upward wedge yet! Not yet ... may need another day or two. The reason I say it's bullish is it finished at high for day <and> after market finished even higher high of day... that and it's a weekend and it beat the fear of holding over weekend -- shows confidence! We are still in a sensitive fragile market and so won't take a lot of bad news to flip it to down <OR> much good news to ratchet up higher. I think next week will be tell tai but momentum will be driven by news!

[luckydude777]

Probably the BEST insight - advice that can be given IMO:

"You play the markets they give you each day."

[fourdint]

Charts positively bullish especially going into the weekend. So a couple of thoughts.

1) inflation remains a concern but it has leveled as has oil prices ... I would call this oil push inflation with some supply chain issues ...supply down or demand up cost goes up. Yes it is a concern but oil could easily flip with increases in supply

2) Another concern (or non-concern) out there is interest rates, particularly interest rate increases. Fed rate in the United States averaged 5.44 percent for period from 1971 to 2022, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008. Prim rate is arounf 300 basis points (3%) above Fed rate. I would note the 20% high ... think it actually hit 21%+ on one day.
And only reason it's a 5.44 average is the last decade of near zero rates ... people freaking because it was raised to .9 percent is laughable ... we're 4.54% below 5.44 average! Why I said non- concern. That said people don't understand interest rates anyways

3) I find it odd, that the COVID shutdowns (economic shoutdown) and the equality market flourished ... there was a crash at the beginning but it recovered quickly an then some (a lot actually). Then in re-opening and economic boom equalities stalled out. We should have seen the opposite! Sure, you could say because it poped so hard during lockdown that a correction was inevitable--not wrong! And all the government spending proped up economy during lockdown-- not wrong. But the point is there was probable overreacting selling on economic recovery and fear of the future (ya, can't predict the future) but that's how we operates -- "fear and greed".

3) Resession concern. Well to be frank, a resession is where demand slows, thus supply slows, and thus the economy slows. This is what the fed wants to bring down inflation ... and it will. But fixing supply chain issues and increasing oil production will also increase supply and bring inflation down ... but Gov has taking that off the table (sadly as is best option) so elected option of puting breaks on economy and possible to point of resession. But the breaks have only been tapped and I doubt they even know what results will be, rather only what they desire. We really need to elect people that have an understanding of economics -- doesn't exist based on their action!

Ok, I ranted, but, yes, we don't usually have corrections/down markets this long ... reason not clear ... and isuch downs usually followed by a strong rebound, even if a slightly less bear rebound. This seems protracted!