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May 4 AM Breakout
... but on that note, given a possible reversal, I have put in an entry order this morning going long on the GPP/JPY. Nice double bottom and the 1st retracement going up may have finished. I'm not going to enter until it breaches the most recent high. SL is swing low on retracement. 2 lots again (1:1 and 2:1)
Here is how it looks...
Okay, I'm off to work now.
May 3 Breakout
Last night I set up 2 entry orders. One for the GBP/USD to go short and another for the GBP/JPY to also go short. Lot 1 was 1:1 while lot 2 was 2:1.
Neither were hit as a reversal seemed to materialize. Am I disappointed? Not at all. The entries are just as much about keeping me out as they are about getting me in.
Here are charts to show what my intentions were. Vertical line marks where I put in my orders.
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD
May 2 Breakout
3/12 wins, -117 pips
Okay, this has not been a great start to this strategy...
Two of the pairs (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY) had huge moves that I should have been able to easily ride down. These would have been captured by Lot 2, which had a trailing SL of 20 pips. I have to either increase the SL to give more breathing room or else reconsider the use of a dynamic SL.
GBP/JPY (Lot 1 = 11.9 pips; Lot 2 = 2.4)
GBP/USD (Lot 1 = 12.3 pips; Lot 2 = -8.9)
The other pairs didn't do as well. Hmmm... I may have to give this a bit of tweaking!!!
EUR/USD (Lot 1 = -20.2 pips; Lot 2 = -12.8)
USD/JPY (Lot 1 = -20.1 pips; Lot 2 = -19)
USD/CHF (Lot 1 = -20.4 pips; Lot 2 = -9.9)
EUR/JPY (Lot 1 = -20.1 pips; Lot 2 = -12.3)
Scalping - April 26 PM
Traded U/J, G/J and E/C (stubborn!)
3 out of 4 trades for a total of 20 pips.
Scalping - April 25 PM
Traded E/U and G/J
7 out of 8 trades for a total of 71 pips.
Scalping - April 19 PM
0/1 for the night on the E/J for a loss of 14 pips.
Scalping - April 19 AM
A big 0/3 this morning... loss of 23 pips. I think I redeemed myself after yesterday's carelessness. At least today I controlled my losses well.
Scalping - April 18 PM
Traded E/J and N/J
5 out of 6 trades for a total of 40 pips.
Even though the numbers look good, I'm disappointed in myself for not cutting my losses earlier and regrouping when I should have. Instead, I averaged up (going short). Ultimately, I came out on top. However, I hate the feeling of being out of control like that. Just when I thought I had it...
I'll be back in the morning.
Scalping - April 17 PM Snapshots
Traded E/J and E/U
3 out of 5 trades for a total of 17.5 pips. Not a lot of liquidity tonight.
Trade #7 closed - TP hit
Here's a snapshot of the trade...
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Greetings!
This board exists as a place to log all my Forex trades as I learn this craft.
Breakout trades:
Starting May 1, 2011 and continuing for 2 months, I will be testing a new breakout method that I've been working on. I've noticed that there are periods of relatively little movement during the Asian session as compared to the London and US sessions. Often times this is nothing more than a period of consolidation. With the idea that breakouts often occur after these periods, I am going to try to capitalize on that by noting the high and low from 2pm - 10pm MST and setting up an entry order both to buy (10 pips above the high) and to sell (10 pips below the low). Each buy and sell will have 2 lots, with 1 lot set to take profit at 12 pips and stop out at 20 pips while the other lot will simply have a dynamic (trailing) stop loss of 20 pips. The former will allow me to lock in profit for a quick gain. The latter will allow me to ride the candle(s) which in some cases is substantial in movement before retracing.
I will be testing this on an FXCM micro account. It will be done on 6 pairs with various characteristics: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY
For now, I am manually entering 24 trades. Though I'm sure an EA can be easily made, I would like to make sure it's worthwhile.
I am also keeping track of a couple of other factors that I later hope to test for correlation wise. If a correlation does exist, I might then be able to fine tune in the selection process. These factors are (1) the range of pips between the high and low (some say that a smaller range results in a greater breakout - we'll see) and (2) taking note of the direction of the trend on a 4H chart (the trend will be determined by observing whether the pair is trading above the 200MA (uptrend) or below the 200MA (downtrend)).
Long terms trades:
My strategy is based on mutiple time frame analysis (1D/1H). That's it... no other indicators are being used to decide, though sometimes they might give a little boost of confidence in the end. I can't bother being at the computer all day since I have a day job. Maybe one day that will change??? I generally hold positions between one and a few days.
My technique:
I examine a 1D chart to visually determine whether there is a trend. Let's assume there is a possible downtrend (since I've been taking quite a few short positions lately). I ask a few questions to determine my confidence level in the trend...
If confident that a trend exists, I will then look to enter on a retracement. I examine a 1H chart to determine the entry point. I ask a few more questions...
Scalping trades:
One method that has caught my eye is simplegreen's pincher setup. It consists of setting up the ADX/DMI indicator, waiting for the ADX line to go up above 50 and either the +DI or -DI to fall below 10. As it crosses back up, if both DIs are seen to be converging, enter long if it's the +DI crossing up and short if it's the -DI crossing up. I've been using the MACD (12,26,9) as a way to confirm entry. I've been scalping using the M1 chart.
Anyway, I've been trading about an hour in the evenings (10-11pm) and an hour in the mornings (5-6am).
My basic money management rule:
I don't risk more than 5% on a given trade. This helps me focus on managing my losses, not my gains.
My take on trading psychology:
I try to keep myself clear headed by not getting too excited if I win or lose. Your emotional response should be the same in either case. If you get too excited through winning you will become a slave to greed. If you get too excited through losing you will become a slave to fear. Both will ultimately lead to disastrous results. The only way to deal with this and survive in the end is to trade, trade, trade based on the rules you initially set up for yourself. First trade with a paper account, then a micro account and finally a standard account. Don't change the rules until you've had a chance to test them out. Constantly changing your rules based on doubt through losing will likewise lead to disastrous results. There are books written about trading psychology. Read a couple.
That's it for now.
If you do happen to stop in, don't be afraid to say hello.
Happy trading!
~Perse~
